FTSE Retreats from Resistance ZoneNew Year Hangover for the FTSE
After a strong festive period, the FTSE’s first week of trading in 2024 resembled something of a damp firework…
Having rallied from the support zone in late October all the way to the resistance zone in mid-December (see chart below), the FTSE has stalled and in recent sessions started to retreat. We’ve seen the market reject resistance five times in less than a month – indicating that FTSE bulls are starting to take profits.
It’s worth noting that the dominant market structure on the FTSE is a sideways range which has been in place since the summer. Until we see the market break and hold above the resistance, we can assume that the range will remain in play.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Lower Swing Highs Form on Hourly Candle Chart
Examining the hourly candle chart reveals a bearish sequence of lower swing highs after the recent rejection of resistance. In the short term, the market has found tentative support, but a breach could trigger increased selling pressure.
FTSE 100 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Sector Snapshot
At the sector level, we have seen a ‘risk-off’ positioning emerge over the last seven sessions. Defensive sectors such as Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Staples have been leading the market. While aggressive sectors linked to the anticipation of lower interest rates such as Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate have erased some of their December gains.
UK Sector Snapshot (7 Days)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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UK100 trade ideas
UK Index 100 FTSE 100 is neutralPivot
7805.00
Our preference
Short positions below 7805.00 with targets at 7540.00 & 7445.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 7805.00 look for further upside with 7930.00 & 8047.00 as targets.
Comment
The RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down.
Supports and resistances
8047.00
7930.00
7805.00
7662.67 Last
7540.00
7445.00
7280.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
FTSE100 D1 - Short SignalFTSE100 D1
Caught in the range between the alluring 7725 sell zone and the steadfast 7275 support price. This range encompasses a substantial 450-point span, bridging the chasm between resistance and support, offering enticing opportunities on both sides of the spectrum. Notably, FTSE100 has been graced with compelling wick rejections, particularly in recent days, and yesterday's closing performance was the proverbial cherry on top.
The measure, spanning roughly 10R from resistance to support, presents an ideal setup for discerning traders who prefer to navigate the higher timeframes with a "set and
SELL FTSE100 Index Analysis on H1: 📉
FTSE100 Index Analysis on H1: 📉
EMA89 and Price Movement:
The price is currently moving below the EMA89, indicating a bearish momentum.
Price Pattern:
The market is forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a downtrend.
Sell Plan:
The plan is to initiate a Sell position in the range of 7730 - 7745.
Set the Stop Loss at 7770 to manage risk.
The Target is set at 7670.
Key Observations:
The identified range for selling aligns with the current downtrend pattern.
Risk management is essential; hence, the Stop Loss is placed to limit potential losses.
Important Note:
Stay vigilant for any price reactions and be prepared to adjust the strategy based on market dynamics.
Remember, trading involves risks, and it's crucial to have a well-defined risk management strategy. Best of luck with your trade! 📉💹 #FTSE100 #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#FTSE100 Santa clause rally to continue? CAPITALCOM:UK100 index has demonstrated a substantial ascent, exhibiting a remarkable 6.5% increase from its October lows to the conclusion of the calendar year. This surge followed the emergence of a bullish divergence, further fortifying the positive sentiment surrounding the index. Notably, the recent breach of the wedge pattern suggests a potential continuation of this upward trajectory.
Anticipating a retest of the 7650 level, I posit that the index is poised to sustain its positive momentum, buoyed by the prevailing bullish forces in the CAPITALCOM:US500 US equities market. This projection is underpinned by the conviction that the ongoing momentum in US equities will exert a continued uplifting effect on the UK100 index, thereby contributing to further gains.
FTSE 100 in a rangeThe FTSE 100 is in a range between 7200 and 8050.
Currently we favor purchases at the bottom and sales at the top of this range.
- You can buy the pullbacks to target 7900 then 8050.
- A break of 7200 would be very negative in the medium/long term.
- A break of the 8050 would open the way to the 8200.
FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) may rise to 7765.00 - 7787.00 - 7800.00Pivot
7730.00
Our preference
Long positions above 7730.00 with targets at 7765.00 7787.00 7800.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 7730.00 look for further downside with 7714.00 & 7685.00 as targets.
Comment
A support base at 7730.00 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Supports and resistances
7800.00
7787.00
7765.00
7749.50 Last
7730.00
7714.00
7685.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
UK100 to continue in the upward move?UK100 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7760 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 7800.
We look to Buy at 7725 (stop at 7695)
Our profit targets will be 7835 and 7855
Resistance: 7775 / 7785 / 7800
Support: 7750 / 7725 / 7700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
FTSE 100 reaches seven month high on softer CPIThe FTSE 100 surged in early trading on Wednesday as the latest inflation figures showed consumer prices had risen less than expected in the last 12 months. Headline CPI came in at 3.9% year-over-year in November, the lowest level in two years. Analysts had been expecting the figure to drop to 4.3% from 4.6%. Core inflation also dropped more than expected to 5.1% from 5.7%.
The softer data underpinned expectations for the Bank of England to start cutting rates sometime next year. Before the data and the FOMC’s surprise dovish tilt last week, markets were pricing in the first cut from the BoE sometime in the third quarter of 2024. As of Wednesday morning, the first full 25bps cut is priced in for May, but there are 13bps of easing priced in by March. By year-end, markets anticipate 134bps of easing, which would entail five 25bps cuts in 2024.
This seems to contradict the messaging that came from the BoE in their meeting last week. The central bank failed to acknowledge rate cuts, going as far as to reiterate that further rate rises could be possible if needed. Markets failed to believe this, and the Federal Reserve is mostly to blame for that. Their unexpected dovish tilt opened the door for other central banks to welcome talk about easing, but neither the BoE nor the ECB took the bait. Regardless, markets see the Fed’s change in position as the turning point in monetary policy across central banks in developed economies, which means they expect the BoE to follow suit sooner or later.
The BoE’s reluctance to show a dovish inclination at their meeting on Thursday last week weighed on UK stocks, especially those most sensitive to rates. The FTSE 100 shed over 1% as the central bank remained firm in its hawkish stance, but Wednesday’s softer CPI data has pushed the index to a seven-month high.
FTSE 100 UK100 trade idea for 20/12/2023 BullishFTSE 100 UK100 trade idea for 20/12/2023
FTSE 100 is in upward channel on daily chart. It broke out of it 2 days ago but came down back inside the channel again.
Tomorrow 20th Dec a major catalyst CPI data is released an hour before the market open. This surely will bring major volatility which gives the traders a good opportunity to grab some points if traded on the correct side.
Key levels based on technical analysis for long trade:
Entry: Ideally a dip to 7626 or 7604
Targets: 7665,7685,7724,7746
Support: 7584,7545
Thanks for reading, feedback welcome.
FTSE Close to a major bullish break-out. Be ready.It's been almost 2 months since we last looked into FTSE 100 (UK100) but the index didn't fail to deliver as it hit our 7535 target (see chart below) and got rejected inside the 6-month Resistance Zone:
Despite the inability so far to break above the 7690 - 7750 Resistance Zone, the index did succeed at making the first important bullish break-out above the Lower Highs trend-line of the All Time High (ATH). Breaking above the Resistance Zone would be the second and final bullish signal but the rejection so far has made it test the first Support on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) right below. In fact the two are close to forming a 1D Golden Cross, with the last registered occurrence being on December 28 2022.
In fact as you can see, the two sequences (current and October - December 2022) are so far quite similar. Once the Resistance Zone broke in January 2023, the rally extended almost as high as the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, any pull-back after the current Resistance Zone breaks, is technically a buy signal. Our long-term target is 8300 (slightly below the 1.382 Fibonacci level).
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FTSE 100 : Week Commencing 18/12/23. Not a specific direction.On Monday I'm hoping that we stay above 7540. This seems to be quite a strong support area as well as resistance if it does drop below. If we stay above 7540 on market open I'm going to take a Long position with a starting SL at 7520 with TP1 7650 & TP2 7700. I like to trail my stop loss and will change this accordingly as it progresses towards the upside.
Alternatively
If we don't hold 7540 and market goes to the downside. I'll be looking for a break of 7520 and hold below before opening a short position. SL 7540 with TP1 7400 & TP2 7260. Again with a trailing stop loss.
On market open I like to wait until the first 15 min candle closes to find a good opening range and trade accordingly.
Looking at the over all market upon close on Friday, FTSE was pretty red in all areas so despite my long bias, there is a strong potential for a short. I think the 7540/7520 is going to be our pivot points. The market is still trending upwards but very close to breaking the trend at this area.
Long UK 100 Index I'm waiting for pice to retest back into the 7385 level, once there I would begin to add on long positions. We've had a nice rally from the 7286 level, which created a new short term high and for me indicating a market shift. I would look for price to reach towards the highs of 7708 since taking out the lows below the 7300 level. Good luck traders, let me know your thoughts in the comments.
UK100 to continue in the upward move?UK100 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
The trend of higher lows is located at 7400.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7575 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 7620.
We look to Buy at 7545 (stop at 7505)
Our profit targets will be 7645 and 7665
Resistance: 7575 / 7600 / 7620
Support: 7540 / 7525 / 7510
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
UK100 H1 I Potential bearish reveral?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 7581.44, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 7540.44, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 7615.14, above a swing-high resistance level.
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UK 100 FTS100 Trade Swing trade IdeaFTSE 100 is showing bullish sign.
It is in an ascending channel upwards.
A crossover above the major down trend resistance line at 7583 might trigger a quick movement to 7675 and 7697 with an ultimate target of 7748.
Support at 7456 and 7403.
Any feedback is most welcome to improve my analysis. Many Thanks.