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TURKISH LIRA / U.S. DOLLAR

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TRYUSD trade ideas

USDTRY-LTSELLThe pair is well over extended and well, many disagreements on my posts. That is fine, as in the end of the day we are all responsible for our positions. For now, no change in long-term view, and including weekly chart view, that the pair is heavily overbought, and yes inflation is very high, and one should consider the pair as a managed float, does not mean the market condition can continuously drive it upwards. For now SELL current (or add) @ 16.60-16.75 and will update when again. The profit order for medium-term 13.75 for now. The long-term 10.50-9.7500 for now.
Short
by peterbokma
10
USDTRY-SELL Long-TermNo change in view. Also this chart is directed towards those that have keen interest in the pair for a long-term basis. To clarify, when we look at a month chart, it means that our objectives are for the coming 6-8 months, and sometimes shorter time-period. The last time when we had a RSI of 85.00 on monthly chart, the higher of USDTRY was 18.27, and everyone was saying we will go 20.00 above. The chart already was over bought once crossing 80.0 RSI which started above 12.00-13.00. So the RSI increased from 80.0 to 85.0 and that is where we got an overnight drop to 10.50 below. From there it was anticipated we should see back up to 14.00, and we traded for a while around that level drifting very slow or not at all. Last week we started seeing 16.00 handle and that is where we are now. To cut the long story, a long-term SHORT would be short since 13.50-14.50 and adding above 16.50 once again. After we add again 17.50-18.00. It is still possible to see higher and re-test 18.27 and the RSI will likely be somewhere 92.0-93.00. Overall, whether RSI is 85.0 or 91.0 for a monthly chart it means we see a collapse to lower levels. This is for some difficult to believe, and well fundamentally they are right, but market is LONG and one day or week the correction will happen, same as it did last December 2021. People have forgotten that already. Good luck everyone.
Short
by peterbokma
12
USDTRY-SELL++No change in view. Because many people are commenting on the charts for USDTRY, for those I specially address this chart today. The short-term picture, which means a time-frame anywhere between 5-14 days, the pair is overbought, and should correct slightly towards 14.68 now. The overbought status is quite severe (even though we have seen higher). It does not mean we go down today, and even it could move higher coming days, but the process is to be SHORT small and add on an increase of the pair. the next SELL after 16.39 is 17.25. In the end it is management of the leverage to ensure you can withstand the storm. In a separate chart I will show a long-term chart and provide some clarifications.
Short
by peterbokma
6
Lira exponential resistance retestHello, USDTRY is trading in a exponential upwardtrend and it seems we are up for another retest of the red curve. Some weeks ago i still believed that the lira downtrend is over but erdogan is still increasing money supply like crazy. (Link below for my old USDTRY Idea´s) Thats why i became more bearish on Lira recently. I believe we are up for another ATH on USDTRY which i estimate to be between 26 to 37 TRY. Do your own Research please and leave a like if you found this useful.
Long
by Symbio_X
8
USDTRY-LT SELLThe long-term chart shows a very overbought situation, and this still requires a good correction. As mentioned on a few occasions and misunderstood at times, it does not mean that we cannot see higher levels. In fact, if existing short, we add 15.50-15.75 and once again 16.75 and above. The ultimate goal and objective is 10.50-9.00. This may take quite some months, but this is a technical expectation. No doubt fundamentals suggest we should see higher at first, and this one should see as an opportunity to sell.
Short
by peterbokma
9