House of Cards - $585 before the crashHouse of Cards - $585 before the crash
I'm unable to update my previous idea that I originally posted in February when AMEX:SPY was at the top. Going to make this brief and will add screenshots and additional notes once the structure of Wave (B) is confirmed or invalidated.
On the 500R chart ($5), the price has risen in a distinct 3-wave pattern labelled A-B-C, with C reaching the 1.236 extension of A and finding resistance at the 100SMA (yellow). The low of Wave (A) respected the boundary of the lower line of the regression trend I have added to the chart. While this trend started prior to what I am considering Wave (A), I still think it provides a good target for the top of the retracement.
Wave (c) of A of (B) (still following me?) is not confirmed as complete yet. It could extend as far as $584 without pulling back, however I anticipate the market building more liquidity on the way up while burning options in the process. I bought 3/28 $570p at the end of the day in case we see a 50%-61.8% pullback to $560-$563 by the end of the week. If that happens, we should have enough room to reach the upper band at $585, which would be a little over a 50% retracement of Wave (A). This would also cause the price to touch the 200 SMA (green), which is common in the first major retracement of a bear market.
Lastly, from a psychological perspective, the market reached an overwhelmingly bearish consensus from mid-February to mid-March. Sentiment during Wave (a) was mostly bearish, but sentiment has shifted positive since the price entered Wave (c) and gapped up on Monday, resulting in a >+1% day. This sets the stage for a rug pull and subsequent bear trap for late sellers who will assume the downtrend has resumed prematurely.
We'll see how this plays out. I'll switch to calls if a higher high is made Wednesday 3/26. Good luck to all.
