8/5/25 - $mtplf - Starting position here @ $6.38/5/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:MTPLF
Starting position here @ $6.3
- 2.2x mnav is v diff for co of this size (i.e. growth dynamics) that can do the following vs. saylor's NASDAQ:MSTR
1/ grow faster by virtue of having 30-40x fewer bitcoin
2/ it can copy mstr's innovation, esp the stable coin STRC for local mkt
3/ has just issued to lever up on new purchases
one way of thinking about a growth-adjusted multiple could be something like this (and i'm going fast here so i can explain in comments is of interest) but a modified GG model to articulate how reasonable 3x+ mnav would be
(ROE-g) / (Kc - g) = multiple on book
ROE is BTC cagr = call it 35%
Kc cost of combined capital = combination of debt % * Kd+ equity % * Ke (more or less to keep it simple). In JP, cost of debt is a lot cheaper v US... this matters a LOT as debt grows in capital structure
g is growth - a plug here for illustrative purposes **given** it's much higher and you'll see my pt so long as numerator > denominator and therefore subtracting equal amts (growth) from both magnifies the output (book value)
(35% - 15%) / ( (30% * 10% + 70% * 40%) - 15%) = 2.5x
"yuh but V how can equity cost of capital be less than BTC cost of capital or it's hurdle" - fair point, i'm not going to get into that bc mkts just opened. i'll say, "that's the art of what those of us do that have been doing this a while". essentially it boils down to this... each business/ case/ scenario/ geo calls for a theoretical amt of debt to maximize enterprise value. that's an unknown level. here you're looking to a. optimize stacking btc without b. getting liquidated. such that we give mgmt (at metatplanet) the benefit of following saylor's tested strategy, optimized for japan's yield starved market and consider a "dollar" or "yen" stable coin at 6...7.. % interest is probably going to eat their entire MM and debt pie, of which a lot of that ultimately gets focused in CAGR'ing BTC, then "yes" actually you derisk the business as it should outperform Bitcoin in that case, as you're able to add more BTC than just holding it. it's that yield you're getting (by using debt effectively and in the right terminal proportion) that afford you a lower cost of equity capital.
anyway be well. this is a 1.5% position for perspective. i'm accumulating a lot more in the 1.5-2x zone if/when we get there. anything below 1.5x, however, is where i really get busy, maybe 5-10% position, let's see what is happening elsewhere.
V
