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AMD trade ideas

AMD... Is it time to BUY?? YESSIR!!What are we looking at technically? - The market is in an obvious uptrend - A bullish BOS (break of structure) - A retracement to the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) fib levels between .705 - .786 - The bullish FVG is also aligned with the OTE levels for a confluence of support - Price has formed a fractal low on the +FVG as price completed the External to Internal run on liquidity. Now comes the IRL back to the ERL move. The swing high at 227.30 is the target, as that is where the buy side liquidity is. Fundamentally, the recent Amazon partnership is the latest move that will give AMD a huge boost. Not mention the AMD may become a buyer of INTEL's AI Fabric Chip. Things are looking up for the organization. What do you think? It's a BUY for me. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by RT_Money
Short AMD via optionsWhat I did: Long Oct 4 vertical 145/135 AMD put spread @ 2.06, as a swing trade. The rationale: NASDAQ:AMD seems to struggle with the 3-month VWMA (white line), while in the context of a declining 3-month and 1-month trend. Fundamentally, AMD competes with NASDAQ:INTC on CPUs and with NASDAQ:NVDA on graphics cards. Of the three, NVDA is the most profitable by far, with a 10-yr median FCF margin of 27.5% (INTC 19.3%, AMD 2.1%). In terms of 10-yr revenue CAGR, NVDA is also the most compelling with 30.9% (INTC 0.3% ,AMD 15.6%). Despite this, AMD does not offer a significant valuation discount relative to NVDA. AMD's next-twelve-month estimated PE multiple is 35, just as NVDA's. And in terms of forward EV/EBITDA, AMD is currently currently MORE expensive, with a 33.1 multiple vs. 29.4 for NVDA. INTC is at this point unprofitable, and at best a turnaround candidate, so I am excluding it from further consideration. I do understand that NVDA's large exposure to the AI infrastructure build-out presents unique downside potential once that wave will have run its course. But a temporary benefit is still preferable to no benefit at all, so I think as long as NVDA grows faster and operates more profitably than AMD, its valuation multiples should present an upper bound to AMD's. In other words, unless NVDA can progress to new highs, I don't see AMD going up. And, as we have seen today, NVDA is struggling to recapture its past highs. I believe that AMD is susceptible here to significant volatility from its association to NVDA. A full reversal of trailing 10-day swing back towards 133+/- seems quite possible, especially since I see the market anticipate a lot of good news from inflation/Fed direction. While I do believe that the Fed will come through with a 50bp cut on Wednesday, I think that cut will be justified with a long discussion of poor recent economic data, casting doubt on the feasibility of a "soft landing". My trade is simply a swing with the intent of hedging some of my long exposures. But it also exists in a larger context: For the last couple of years the argument has been made that semiconductors are no longer cyclical stocks, but rather idiosyncratic growth machines, like software. If that narrative gets challenged by reality, then I think AMD has a long way down. Its current multiples are one third above trough valuations, and if analysts were to revise down their estimates, then the downside grows in proportion.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by matthias
4
AMD: The most important support level! (D&W charts)Looking at the daily chart of AMD, we can observe a Bullish Harami pattern emerging just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This formation, often seen as a reversal signal, indicates that the recent downtrend might be coming to a halt. The price bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which suggests this area is a strong support. The next significant resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which is slightly above the 21-day EMA. On the weekly chart, the long-term uptrend remains intact, supported by a well-defined ascending trendline. This trendline, along with the support at $132.83, has held through recent pullbacks, indicating that this level will be critical for maintaining the bullish structure. The 21-week EMA is still above the current price, acting as potential resistance, but if the daily bullish reversal holds, we may see a further move up towards $162.00. In summary, the daily chart suggests a potential bullish reversal from a significant Fibonacci level, while the weekly chart reinforces the importance of the trendline and support at $132.83 to maintain the bullish momentum. AMD's price would need to lose its trend line on the weekly char in order to reject the bull trend. As long as it stays above it, the bullish bias will persist. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
AMD - Potential Breakout Ahead In this post, I'll explain why AMD looks like it is in a classic Wyckoff accumulation phase and why we might see an upside breakout, despite September being a typically bearish month. I will break down the subphases of accumulation based on the Wyckoff method and analyze how volume supports this bullish structure. To support this idea, AMD has had a recent positive earnings, accompanied with a plethora of bullish news. Wyckoff Accumulation Subphases and Volume Analysis Preliminary Support (PS): This is where early buying interest stepped in, with volume gradually increasing, lime green vector candles show that larger players are starting to accumulate shares. Red vector candles at this point reflect a test of supply as the price created a resistance, with market makers absorbing sell orders to set the stage for the next phase. Selling Climax (SCLMX): The SC marked the lowest point, where panic selling peaked, accompanied by a large red vector candle. This candle represents significant selling pressure, but market makers and institutional players were stepping in to absorb it, creating the bottom of the accumulation range. Automatic Rally (AR): Following the SCLMX, the price rebounded into an automatic rally. This is a natural reaction to the exhaustion of selling pressure, with lower volume, as the market adjusts to reduced selling intensity. No aggressive buying yet, but a signal that the market is consolidating. Secondary Tests (ST): The ST retests the support level established at the SC. The second ST broke below support, accompanied by another large red vector candle. This indicates that the market makers were again absorbing the remaining supply, setting up for the next phase. The high volume reflects this absorption, confirming the presence of significant players preparing for the bullish move. Period Between the Second ST and the Sign of Strength (SOS): After the second ST, the price moved back toward the resistance formed near the PS level. Red vector candles appeared here, signaling market makers were once again testing supply at higher levels. The price tested resistance, absorbing any selling pressure, and allowing market makers to accumulate more shares without allowing the price to break out prematurely. This period is a crucial transition in accumulation, where market makers want to confirm that no large selling pressure remains before moving toward the Sign of Strength (SOS). By absorbing this supply at higher prices, market makers ensure that there’s minimal resistance when they push the price higher during the SOS phase. Sign of Strength : The SOS phase represents the first significant bullish movement, where the price rallies sharply on large green vector candles. This shows that market makers have started marking up the price after absorbing most of the supply. Volume increases during this move, confirming strong buying demand as the price tests the upper range of resistance. The green vector candles are a sign that market makers are starting to push the price higher, preparing for the final shakeout. Spring: The spring comes after the SOS, where the price drops below the established support for a final shakeout. The goal here is to trap weak hands, triggering stop losses and forcing retail traders to exit their positions. This move down is marked by red vector candles, indicating significant selling pressure, but again, it is being absorbed by larger players. High volume during the spring signals that market makers are buying into the drop, absorbing the last bit of supply before the upward move. Test: After the spring, the test occurs at lower volume, confirming that no significant selling pressure remains. Smaller green and red candles appear during the test, suggesting that the market is now balanced and ready to move upward.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by OnlyProfits888