CHR(Chorus Aviation) Short Term Investing 1I estimate that CHR share will reach a value of 3.5+- Canadian Dollar within one year (3-12 months), this is a increase of 35%+-
Stop loss is around 2.25 CAD
Despite the last quarter earnings release being negative, which is the biggest cause for the share dropping to a 2.36 low, the company still looks healthy, the liquidity still good enough (filled my order with 10 seconds just 0.01 above current market price) and debt still firmly managed.
I guess there are certain factors that need to be considered, I personally do not know the lifetime of planes in Chorus Aviation's fleet, I will do some research if the lifecycle of these planes are not nearing end of service, could be a red flag but otherwise I see no reason why this share won't reach at least 3.50 CAD.
Also at this point its the most deviated from the SP500 trend, very deviated, a reversion might occur.
Book value is more than twice current market value.
Long-term debt to total equity has decreased in the last 3 years and is better than the industry average.
Income covers debt payments.
Profit margin in the green.
Analysts are on average estimating that the share will hit above 4 CAD, the low estimate is 3.3+- CAD
I have bought 2000 shares at 2.64 CAD, that is 3000-4000 dollars, will attempt to hold for one year.
We have a nice double bottom forming.
Share might be oversold.
USA interest rate hikes likely to only increase minimally or slowly from this point if it does increase.
Might just leave money even if stock price goes lower than 2.25 CAD, just shift holding term to 3-5 years
CHR trade ideas
CHR - continuation trade2021-11-24
Markets are mixed, (near all time highs)
CHR and airline stocks mostly under-performed the market
CHR and AAL and AC have almost identical price movement, which is surprising as it mostly did not go out of sync even during earning periods.
Bearish trend line was broken Nov 3rd. This is also true for AC.
This trade is looking at Oct 29 being reversal day
Nov 3rd confirmation of broken down trend
Nov 8th new high
Nov 24-26 (new higher low)
and bullish continuation.
stop loss at 3.54 below support level.
No profit target.
I am going to track this carefully as I think there will be upside in the next 2-3 years for airline stocks.
CHR breaking above trend lineI have a position - I am a bit in the green.
Looking for a cycle into airlines, which has been neglected for some time.
AC, AAL and CHR are the ones I track and they move almost identically.
I chose CHR because its cheapest and gives me easier stop loss, gain taker targets.
I think I will hold till November 10th, I dont want to hold past earnings. Will be a game time decesion.
CHR (Just looking) + My investing strategy in airline stocks. I have a position with an Avg. price of 2.40 in CHR. I totally mistimed my entry and got stuck in it at least 3 weeks now. At some points I was down a little bit. Now it looks like I am finally going to be able to go back to break even tommorow.
Today was a nice green day, hoping tomorrow is a reversal confirmation day. I can't find any news at to why this is happening. I did notice that every airline related stock I watch had a nice green day today. Perhaps its just a cycle in the market at the moment, a welcome one!
I highlighted some levels of resistance and support above.
For me, CHR is an absolute buy at 2.12. It traded at 2.12 on October 2nd, 2020.
it had only traded that low three times since Covid started; 18, 19 and 23rd of March.
Some people talk about shorting airlines, I dont think that makes any sense. Because Airlines are so oversold, it is not entirely fathmable that they can trade lower than the levels they are at now. People will simply buy them at those prices and its hard to drive the price down. I would say, I would never short airlines. They are too oversold, just how I would not buy certain Tech plays like Tesla, as it is far overbought.
To drive my point, Tesla released wonderful earnings report recently and the price went down instead of up. Likewise, AAL released earnings pre market today and they had bad earnings, but the price went up.
Anyhow, there are still two problems with airlines on a long position. The 1st problem is, they will not pick up and go to where they once were any time soon. You are looking at 3-5 years before they are back where they used to be.
The 2nd problem, as you can see above, each airline stock will have lots of clusters of resistance. So even now, as much as I want to buy into this potential CHR rally, Its hard because I see resistance at 2.51, 2.88, 3.10, 3.50 etccc.....
The other problem is that, I don't wana accumulate stocks in something that will take so long to move because Id prefer if my capital was doing something for me in stocks that are moving.
Having said all of that, there are a few good thing about airline stocks. 1) You will get your money back, specially in Air Canada, CHR, Canadian companies. Its completely unfathomable to think that AC is going to go out of business, AC will exist long after we all pass. Canada the country wont let AC go away! And CHR is a subsidiary of AC.
2nd) The consistent price movement allows you to go in and out of trades and accumulating "free shares." You see, a lot of swing traders like to buy the low, sell the high to make the money. I see it differently, for now anyways. I dont wanna accumulate money as much as I wana accumulate free shares. The reason being, is that instead of making a feww hundred dollars on each swing trade. I wana constantly accumulate shares which in 5-7 years from now will get me a lot more bang for my buck so to speak.
If you can time entering and exiting the trades, be it buying the low, selling the high. Buying into the breakouts, buy the consolidation, etc.... What you can do is that when you are in the green, you exit your position taking your inital investment back, this was, you have your cash, which you can you to re-invest in other stocks and apply this strategy again.
Essentially, lets say I buy a 100 shares of CHR at $2. for an over all investment of $200. I would wait until CHR reaches, say $3. So my investment is now worth $300. I would sell 66 shares at $3. This gives me back my original $200 which I can now put elsewhere. and I am left with 34 shares of CHR that are 'free'!
And because you did not technically aquire capital gains (you dont until you sell them), it is not taxed for this year either.
Now, say CHR goes back down to $2. or is breaking through levels of resistance at 3.50 in convincing fashing, you simply re-apply the strategy and accumulate yet more shares.
Instead of taking profits at $3. let your free shares simmer until CHR goes back to where it once was before Covid. which is 8.30!!!!!!
Oversold bounce to the sky!airlines are getting hammered again however there is something special about CHR over AC. They do regional airflights meaning while they are still effected by covid they wont be as impacted as airlines with international flights like AC. AC is currently about 67% below its precovid levels while CHR is 70% which I think is unjustified. . more over, the Canadian government plans on subsidizing regional flights. while it benefits both AC still has more baggage
Technicals look alot better for CHR imo aswell for this upcoming week.
Currently its sitting on strong support.
On the 4 hr we can see a 4hr oversold bounce coming
On the 1 hr we have bullish divergence
indicating a good possibility of a double bottom.
2.5-2.6 is likely some heavy resistance and we have a downwards trendline so that would be a good spot to take some profit. I do think the orange trendline will be likely broken for a possible target of 4.
Yield play with potentialHigh Yield stock with an extended deal with Air Canada. This will probably draw investers with fear of a drop in the markets over the next year. I expect some ranging between $6.85 and $8 but has potential to be a "Safe Haven" for yield seekers. 55% Payout Ratio with a steady dividend for the past 13 years. Calculation of the Graham Number shows it valued around $7.91 and is on the border of a defensive value stock. Currently trading at a discount in my mind.
CHR (TSX rotation)TSX is rotating at the moment. Financials and consumers rally started this AM.
CHR is continuing a slow overall bullish trend since the lows in March. Next level of resistance highlighted with red line.
Swing trade only, tomorrow expected to open slightly higher or to move up a bit throughout the day.
CHR Mid-Term & Long-Term SetupEasy sell signal at top of the channel. Now looking for re-entry positions.
Possible re-entry levels:
$3.06-$3.20 (Dotted Line inside channel) - Not only is there so much price action here it also lines up with the 50MA. Could be a great bounce target.
$2.55-$2.75 (Bottom of Channel) - This is key support of the channel and would probably have a lower chance of occuring but in my opinion is a grea long-term hold. If we give up this key support level then we could see much lower prices depending on the overall market conditions.
CHR Mid-Term & Long-Term SetupEasy sell signal at top of the channel. Now looking for re-entry positions.
Possible re-entry levels:
$3.06-$3.20 (Dotted Line inside channel) - Not only is there so much price action here it also lines up with our 50MA. Could be a great bounce target.
$2.55-$2.75 (Bottom of Channel) - This is key support of the channel and would probably have a lower chance of occuring but in my opinion is a grea long-term hold. If we give up this level we could see much lower prices depending on the overall market.