MSFT Annual Outlook Thought I would do some individual tickers, especially ones that lead the market.
This is for MSFT. Will also cover AAPL and NVDA in the future.
Safe trades everyone! Wish you a profitable new year!
MSFT trade ideas
MSFT Fib CirclesNASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft Fib Circles are showing a good high in this current range and then some consolidation.
In the last zone we did see some consolidation before touching that Fib Circle line, which then led to new highs in the new range.
Looks like we are going to enter into a new range.
Comment what you think about this chart.
Comment any tips or suggestions.
NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft IDEAL ENTRY IS NOW!NASDAQ:MSFT
There is a 2 week time at mode bullish trend active with bullish targets of up to $550 by March.
Price is currently at the perfect entry.
As long as $406 is respected price will trend higher.
On the other hand, lets do keep in mind that the monthly chart might be telling a different story as RSI keeps making lower lows and the December monthly candle closed with a HUGE selling wick. Lots of indecision in price action. But hey, worth the RR
Microsoft earningsMicrosoft earnings is on Wednesday, 1/29/25 at 4:05pm. MSFT is showing 3x buy signals. MSFT touched it's SMA200 at $417 yesterday. Also, it's trading inside it's green support zone area of a 1 year uptrend channel. Plus, there's a bullish reversal printing on the stochastic indicator.
Q2 Dec 2024 Consensus:
P/E = 34.8
EPS = 3.14
Revenue = 68.90 B
Trade idea:
Long = 417
Stop = 407
Profit = 447
1) buy 100 shares
2) buy 417.5 call
or OTM call
3) long call spread
buy 417.5 call
sell 447.5 call
4) long put spread
sell 447.5 put
buy 417.5 put
Options data:
1/10/25 expiry
Put Volume Total 15,109
Call Volume Total 32,380
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.47
Put Open Interest Total 18,841
Call Open Interest Total 35,261
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.53
1/17/25 expiry
Put Volume Total 39,224
Call Volume Total 30,158
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.30
Put Open Interest Total 361,384
Call Open Interest Total 345,132
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.05
1/24/25 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,565
Call Volume Total 4,740
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.75
Put Open Interest Total 29,823
Call Open Interest Total 30,947
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.96
1/31/25 expiry
Put Volume Total 2,671
Call Volume Total 4,105
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.65
Put Open Interest Total 16,197
Call Open Interest Total 13,347
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21
MSFT Analysis and Price Projections for 2025 Analysis and Price Projections for 2025 (3-to-5-Month Outlook)
Below is my analysis for each chart with a focus on Elliott Wave patterns, Fibonacci levels, and potential buy-the-dip opportunities.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Current Price: $421.50
Key Levels:
Resistance: $456.16 (0.853 Fibonacci extension).
Support: $332.24 (1.618 retracement).
Outlook: MSFT has completed a potential Wave 5 and may enter a corrective phase. A deeper pullback towards $332.24 (1.618 Fibonacci) is possible, with $360.00 acting as intermediate support.
Projection:
After the correction, MSFT could rebound and target $440.00-$450.00 by Q2 2025 and maybe $475.00 by year end.
Microsoft Major Peak In?I think there is a reasonable chance the peak for microsoft is in and the market will make a lower high over the next few weeks. (could also continue lower without that lower high)
Monthly candle is a pin bar which is bearish.
Weekly structure has shifted bearish.
The return move back up to the highs has been slow and choppy and has not sustained the pace of the prior trend.
There is a break of the ascending pink trendline - though it is not a clear break just yet - would prefer to see further displacement through it. But still a bearish sign.
The economic data in my view supports the idea of an upcoming recession / already in a recession.
We could see a 72-80% correction.
Dot.com bubble saw approx 75% correction.
The green zone down there highlights a probable area for the market to return to, those are levels seen only 4 and a bit years ago so it is not unreasonable to see a nasty correction like this if a bad recession comes a long which I think is likely.
I don’t think the US indices have peaked yet. Possible the Dow Jones has but I see the SPX500, NAS100 and Russel 2000 making new highs first over the next 2-6 weeks before I expect the crash to likely begin.
MSFT About to Break after 4 Month ConsolidationMicrosoft has yet to reclaim all time highs after it peaked in July at $468. Forming a symmetrical triangle as price is being compressed towards the breakout zone.
Recently price bounced off the support, into the 0.618 and into resistance. Looking for a potential break although there is strong resistance above, or a break down and continuation of the downward trend.
Let's see where this goes.
Overtrading: The Fast Track to BurnoutThere was a day in my trading journey that I’ll never forget—and not for a good reason. It started like any normal day. I had my plan, and the first few trades went well. But then, I saw what I thought was another good opportunity. Without thinking it through, I jumped in.
The trade didn’t work out, and I got frustrated. Instead of stepping back, I started trading like crazy, trying to get my money back. One bad trade led to another, and before I knew it, I had made over 30 trades in a single day. Each one was worse than the last. By the end, I had lost thousands of dollars.
Even worse than the money, I felt drained, frustrated, and embarrassed. That’s when I realized: I was overtrading, and it was destroying both my account and my mindset.
What Is Overtrading?
Overtrading is when you make too many trades, often because you’re emotional. Maybe you’re trying to chase every small market move, recover a loss, or just avoid feeling bored. Whatever the reason, you’re not sticking to your plan—you’re just clicking buttons and hoping for the best.
How to Spot Overtrading
Here’s how you can tell if you’re overtrading:
- Too Many Trades: You’re constantly jumping in and out of the market without thinking it through.
- Ignoring Your Rules: You forget your plan and take trades that don’t fit your strategy.
- Trading on Emotions: You’re trading out of frustration, boredom, or desperation.
- Feeling Exhausted: By the end of your session, you’re completely wiped out.
- Losing More Money: Your account keeps shrinking because your trades are rushed and sloppy.
What Overtrading Does to You
Overtrading isn’t just bad for your account—it’s bad for you, too:
- You Lose Money: Bad trades add up fast, and your account takes a hit.
- You Burn Out: Staring at screens all day and trading on emotions will leave you mentally drained.
- You Lose Confidence: Watching your mistakes pile up makes you doubt yourself.
- You Break Discipline: Once you’re out of control, it’s hard to stick to your strategy.
- You Feel Tired and Unhealthy: Long hours and no breaks make your body and mind feel worse.
How I Fixed It
After that awful day, I knew I had to change. I took a break for a few days to clear my head. When I came back, I made some rules for myself:
-Only trade setups that match my plan.
-Set a limit on how many trades I can take in a day.
-Take regular breaks so I don’t burn out.
-Journal every trade so I can spot my mistakes and improve.
It took time, but these small changes helped me stop overtrading and focus on making smarter decisions.
Are You Overtrading?
If this sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Overtrading happens to a lot of traders, but you can fix it with the right approach.
If you’re feeling stuck, frustrated, or burned out, send me a DM. I’m here to help you figure out what’s going wrong and how to turn things around. You don’t have to do it alone!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
MICROSOFT ahead of an expansion similar to the Internet BubbleMicrosoft (MSFT) has been practically neutral for half the year (last 6 months) as since the July 2024 High, it has been trading sideways, unable to catch a rally for a new All Time High (ATH).
This consolidation is technically no different that the July - December 1995 sideways sequence (green circle). As you can see, the two fractals since their September 2014 and September 1987 starting points respectively, have been virtually identical, especially in terms of 1M RSI.
The reason for these striking similarities is simple. The market is currently unfolding the A.I. Bubble just like it did with the Internet (Dotcom Bubble) in the 1990s. The two technological revolutions are not the same but the A.I. has the capacity to change the socioeconomic market structure just like the Internet did.
Based on that analogy, the current 6-month consolidation technically serves as a Re-accumulation Phase following the first part of the A.I. Bubble just like July - Dec 1995 was after the first past of the Internet Bubble up to the 0.382 Time Fibonacci level. If those similarities are extended until the end, then we should not see such a long consolidation again until the 0.618 Fib, when the final past of the Bubble will begin.
This chart comparison doesn't serve at giving us a specific Target for this Cycle but rather encourage investors that despite the seeming lack of direction these past 6 months, Microsoft is a strong buy opportunity long-term.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Found a Bottom - Long Trade Setup🖥️ Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - 15-Minute Chart
🚀 Trade Setup:
- Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): Watching for a bullish reaction near the current support at $428.00 - $426.26.
- Entry Plan: Waiting for confirmation of a bounce from the support zone.
Targets:
- Target 1: $432.92
- Target 2: $435.83
- Stop-Loss: Below $426.26 to protect capital.
📈 Key Notes:
Expecting a potential ABC correction to complete, followed by an upward move toward the targets.
The risk-to-reward ratio aligns well with this setup.
Watch for bullish candles or a volume increase to confirm the entry.
⚠️ Risk Management: Trade responsibly and adjust position size to maintain proper risk based on your account balance.
#Microsoft #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #MSFT #TradingView
post 2/2... MSFT Microsoft levels of worry or Cheer?Microsoft has some interesting Fib Channel levels going back to the 90s...Those pure vertical trends turned into flatness in the 2020's..shows you how parabolic it went
post 1/2... MSFT Microsoft parabolic to flatMicrosoft has some interesting Fib Channel levels going back to the 90s...Those pure vertical trends turned into flatness in the 2020's..shows you how parabolic it went
Next post is todays action...notice line angles between 90s and now.
Microsoft at a Critical Zone: Will It Break or Bounce?🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $433.50. A breakout clears the path to $440 and $445, fueled by potential bullish recovery.
🩸 Support: $430.00. A breakdown exposes $425 and $420, signaling further weakness.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $433.50, aiming for $440 and $445. Watch for increasing volume to confirm the breakout.
🩸 Short: Below $430.00, targeting $425 and $420. Strong bearish momentum favors this scenario.
🩸 Microsoft’s MACD reflects ongoing bearish pressure, while the price hovers near critical EMA and Supertrend levels. Bulls must reclaim $433.50 to regain control, while bears can exploit the downside below $430.00. Volume remains key to validating either move.
👑 "Only those who act decisively at pivotal moments shape their financial destiny." — LucanInvestor
27-12-24 MSFT 426 USD - strong sell.
For me, MSFT is no more longer focussed on their core business.
Technical absolut incredible:
Negative divergence on RSI
Flat on OBV
Diamond head formation.
Bear market for 12-18 months.
Target around 300 USD with gap filling.
27-12-24 MSFT 426 USD - strong sell.
For me, MSFT is no more longer focussed on their core business.
Technical absolut incredible:
Negative divergence on RSI
Flat on OBV
Diamond head formation.
Bear market for 12-18 months.
Target around 300 USD with gap filling.
Can Giants Maintain AI Dominance While Pursuing Independence?In the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, Microsoft stands at a fascinating crossroads that challenges conventional wisdom about technological partnerships and innovation. The tech giant's recent strategic moves present a compelling case study of how market leaders can simultaneously strengthen their AI capabilities while reducing dependencies on key partners. This delicate balance could reshape the future of enterprise AI.
Microsoft's remarkable journey is highlighted by Wall Street's growing confidence, with Loop Capital's target price increase to $550 reflecting strong market optimism. This confidence isn't merely speculative – it's backed by substantial investments, including a staggering $42.6 billion allocated to cloud and AI infrastructure in Q3 2024 alone. The company's financial performance reinforces this positive outlook, with earnings consistently exceeding expectations and revenue growing at an impressive 16% year-over-year.
What makes Microsoft's strategy particularly intriguing is its nuanced approach to partnerships and innovation. While maintaining its strategic alliance with OpenAI, the company actively diversifies its AI portfolio by developing internal models and exploring third-party integrations. This sophisticated balancing act, combined with strong institutional ownership and strategic insider movements, suggests a company that's not just adapting to change but actively shaping the future of AI enterprise solutions. The remaining question isn't whether Microsoft will maintain its market leadership, but how its strategic evolution will redefine the boundaries between partnership and independence in the AI era.
Microsoft - We Will See A Correction!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) can actually create a correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Microsoft is one of the strongest stocks over the past decade and also over the past couple of months, there was no clear sign of weakness. Therefore, it is actually not extremely likely that a correction will happen, but if it does, this will offer a long term texbook trading opportunity.
Levels to watch: $420, $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Microsoft ($MSFT) - Potential Bounce from Support📈 Day-Trade Setup:
- Entry: $434
- Stop-Loss: $432 (tight risk management)
- Target 1: $439
- Target 2: $445
Rationale:
Microsoft is showing signs of a potential reversal after hitting key support levels around $432-$434.
This level aligns with prior demand zones, and a recovery is anticipated based on Elliott Wave projections and Fibonacci retracements.
- Target 1 ($439): Represents the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and aligns with interim resistance.
- Target 2 ($445): Aligns with the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels, completing Wave C.
Risk Management:
Position size is adjusted for a 1% account risk.
Outlook:
This trade leans on technical patterns and tight risk-reward dynamics. Microsoft continues to be fundamentally strong, with its cloud and AI initiatives fueling long-term growth.
Let's see if this rebound materializes! 🚀
MSFT Bearish Trade Setup: Key Levels to Watch!📉 Entry: $437.04 – Price action shows rejection at a resistance level, confirming bearish momentum. 🚨
Stop Loss: $441.26 – Protect against invalidation above this resistance. ✋
🎯 Targets:
T1: $432.27 – Immediate support and first profit zone. 🛑
T2: $427.54 – Extended downside target for further profits. 💰
Key Details:
📊 The breakdown below the ascending trendline confirms weakening bullish momentum.
📉 Price rejection near $437.04 signals a high-probability short trade opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
📌 Strategy:
🔻 Enter short at $437.04.
🔒 SL above $441.26.
✅ Take profits at $432.27 (T1) & $427.54 (T2).
Why This Chart is Important:
⚠️ MSFT’s price action highlights a clear bearish breakdown, offering an ideal setup for short trades.
Conclusion:
Rejection at $437.04, combined with downside targets at $432.27 and $427.54, confirms bearish momentum for this setup. 📉🔥
#Trading #MSFT #StockMarket #BearishSetup #RiskReward #StockAnalysis #ProfittoPath
Microsoft - H&S Fake Out to Make Out! 16% Upside🖐️ H5 TRADE - NASDAQ:MSFT
There was to much going on to call out my exact entry on this at the retest area but to be fair I put it on everyone's watchlist a few weeks ago and said a retest would be a perfect entry. This will be different once the H5 Community is up and running as I will have a whole trade alerts channel were I post my trades and buy/sell notis right as after execution!
With this trade we still have over 16% to run upward from here. So, up to you friends! Them and other Mag7 names held up really well during that flash crash and that is very bullish to me! Also, to throw in a learning lesson for all: Just because a charting pattern forms (H&S on MSFT) doesn't mean it's a trade you should enter! Always wait for breakouts and retest! If you struggle with that then you better beat it into your head and tape you hands underneath your desk!
-H5 indicator is GREEN
-Symmetrical Triangle pattern breakout and retest
-Launching off Volume shelf back to ATH and beyond
-Bottom of the two year rising channel
-Williams CB forming and believe we create support next week
I consolidated the account yesterday into the best trades and saw this OLD SAFE n RELIABLE trade and chose to buy some options!
🔜🎯$466
🎯$512
⏲️Before 05May2025
2 Contracts -$420 Calls for May 16th 2025
CB: $40.03 - Currently $43.75
Not financial advice.
Microsoft Update: Key Levels to WatchMicrosoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) is at an important point right now, and here’s what to look out for:
If we close above $442: There’s a good chance we’ll see targets at $453 or even $478 as buyers take control.
If the price breaks down out of the current range: A correction to $422 or $415 becomes a strong possibility.
Stay focused on these levels and let the market show you the way forward. No need to force it—patience pays.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
