SHOP vwap + reversalbig drop after earnings surprise
2023 weakness predicted
ARKK loaded up last week
reversal sign - high risk - only a quick 1:1 trade
SHOP trade ideas
Shopify - It's Bear *and* Bull Hunting SeasonBefore Shopify's 10:1 split, it was trading for $1,800 USD. Notable because it was the Toronto Stock Exchange's biggest stock, trading over $2,000 CAD. This was the kind of stock that all the eyes used to be on.
The company processes payments on the Internet and the work from home lockdown glory days are gone. The next time we're all under house arrest will be because the governments want to act like the Chinese Communist Party; the priority won't be keeping people stable and placated like it was in 2020. Things will be scary, and so the fundamentals for this company will never be as good as they were before.
That being said, it looks like we're about to head/already heading into what I believe is a tech bear trap before Nasdaq goes big or goes home, a two-sided move which I outlined a few weeks ago:
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears
Shopify is something to keep on your radar because, no matter how they file shelf offerings to dilute their share count and how that ought to affect share price because it's a really a function of marketcap, Shopify is the kind of thing that likes to go up and down 10 or 15 percent in a day, and when it does go, it has significantly major upside potential, which you can see on weekly bars:
And look, I get it, $45 --> $30 --> $115 is a real too good to be true sort of call, but it's not without its principled rationality.
After 179 trading days and 263 real days of consolidation, Shopify finally started to take out highs in the earliest part of '23. This comes after it took out significant long term lows in the October Low of the Year for indexes.
These two factors combine to tell you that the algorithms no longer point down, but point up. It's only that there is the risk that the "up" peaked when the stops over $50 were taken and everything is going down for real now. I'm only partially psychic. You'll have to get Jamie Dimon and Ken Griffin to tell you the concrete manifestation of what's going to happen.
But Shopify's price action is not that significantly different from what Netflix has done, except Netflix just never bothered to run the bottom and never really liked to go down, and has already gone up significantly.
What bears are missing from their doom thesis is this:
The markets will crash when the Federal Reserve pivots, not before. It's a "buy the rumor, sell the news" equation, my friends. They've been hiking for over a year, and long term, none of the big 3 indexes are actually bearish on monthly or weekly candles.
What people don't realize is that everything is setting up for a situation where inflation appears to be waning and will continue to appear to be waning for the next few months, and it's because we're in winter. This apparently deflationary environment will set the stage for the narrative that leads us to Nasdaq 14,500+.
Natural gas, oil, and gasoline will all supermooncycle in the summer because of significantly increased societal demand, and that means food, goods, services all go up too.
And in the meantime, the Fed is going to continue to hike at least 25 bps a session. So they're going to hike and hike and we're going to walk right back into big inflationary numbers starting in late May and through July while the FFR is already too high.
The Fed won't be able to start hiking 50 and 75 bps when we're already at 5.5% because the national debt is so super bloated thanks to the U.S. socialists spending trillions and trillions of dollars on so-called "stimulus," which really just amounts to raiding the Treasury and the future generations like pirates.
And so, the Fed is going to be forced to pivot at the worst time: in the middle of inflation that was worse than 2022, and the two factors combined is what is really going to cause the big gap downs.
And the gaps are going to run, because the Fed obviously won't be able to bail out the market this time, so there won't be any hopium for retail to huff.
There are other things that can unfold geopolitically around the same time, like the collapse of Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party, Russia defeating NATO in Ukraine, and large scale environmental disaster and significant genuine pandemic diseases that are beyond the control of the globalists and their technology.
All of this combines to tell you that the dumpster the bears dream of is far away, which means that much higher prices are coming. It presents a death trap for people who are obediently following Discord signal groups, Zerohedge, Fintwit, and CNBC, instead of thinking for themselves, and an opportunity for the "few" who understand that "The Big Short" is being set up, and that "The Big Short" inherently means a run back towards high levels.
So buy this coming dip, don't capitulate, and enjoy the fruit of the moon mission that is the biggest exit pump of all time. Just make sure you get out, take profit, and keep your risk light.
You have to keep your eye on the Chinese Communist Party. It's been two weeks since the Lunar New Year and all the resulting travel stimulus from hundreds of millions of people being freed from months of house arrest have finished, and now there are reports that there are multiple significant mutations of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 emerging all over the world.
Meanwhile, if you check Our World in Data or the other aggregators, you'll see that the CCP claims there have been 0.00 new COVID cases or deaths since roughly Jan. 6.
This is obviously totally impossible. Not to mention the Communist Party is a chronic liar that only cares about its "stability" and isn't one bit concerned with how many people might die as it lies to the world and the Chinese people.
All of this should tell you that the pandemic situation is volatile outside of China, and extremely dangerous inside of China. The situation could devolve at any time, and at any time you can be stuck on the wrong side of a gap.
What you have to understand about the Communist Party and the globalist factors who have cultivated its methods and ways, who seek to export them globally for the unveiling of the One World Government/New World Order, is that the Specter of Communism's life's work is to destroy your life and to destroy humanity.
No joke. Its fundamental wish and its fundamental goal is to ruin each and every person and each and every thing. And so, the test for all of Creation is whether you can evidence, with both your words and deeds, that you don't want the Devil Red, and instead you want to enter the future that is the resurrection of China's 5,000 year-old culture of Heavenly Dynasties.
The choice is yours. It's your job to choose.
It's my job to tell you these words.
Shopify Potential for Bullish Continuation | 24th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for TSM is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is along an ascending trendline.
Looking for a buy entry at 82.87, where the overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 72.84, where the previous swing low is.
Take profit will be at 107.90, where the overlap resistance is.
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Shopify Potential for Bullish Continuation | 24th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for TSM is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is along an ascending trendline.
Looking for a buy entry at 82.87, where the overlap support and 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 72.84, where the previous swing low is.
Take profit will be at 107.90, where the overlap resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
$SHOP - one more high at $59 before lowerEven with the negative earnings, Shop looks like it wants higher.
I could see $shop hitting $59 before falling lower.
I think the move would play out before March 3rd.
Let's see...
SHOP about to test trendline and look for years highHi traders,
for SHOP i see a test of the trendline around $39 which is also the .5 fib level from the uptrend started begin of 2023. Afterwards, we should hold the trendline and see the 2023 highs again.
This is no financial advice.
Shopify to 40$Channel trade.
Has a gap at 40$ that will be close., target is channel support..
Added white horizontal line to show the extreme support in that area. If shops breaks below that it's going back to the 20's..
Selling pressure was enormous , definitely see follow up coming..
200ema is at 46.25, that would be the stop loss of my choice
$SHOP Technical Indicators for Short-Term Trading Strategies $BA @everyone
MACD Divergence
Stock price and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator are showing a bearish divergence
i.e price is making new highs while RSI is making new lows. This is generally a reversal signal.
Horizontal Resistance
Daily price is touching a horizontal resistance level. Price can hit the resistance level and start going down,
which would be a bearish signal. It can also break out of it to form a breakout, which would be bullish.
Yearly High Close
Price is close to the yearly highs.
Inside Day
When today's high and low are both within the yesterday candle's high and low.
Potential Breakout
Price is close to breaking out from a resistance level.
For Chart Like Mine Link In Bio
$SHOP: Interesting potential here...The daily trend is turning up, which could end up leading to a larger timeframe trend forming in Shopify over time. Low risk entry here, see levels for entry, stop and take profit targets.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$SHOP call 👀📈I've used a few tools and indicators to predict Shopify share price over the next couple weeks
Not investment advice
I believe SHOP is massively undervalued, with some exciting projects coming soon. We saw an ATH @ around $172 in Nov 2021, and since then the price has dropped around by over 4x less, to about $40. This is around $15 above the ATL.
However, £SHOP is also vulnerable to external factors, and as we saw in the news, Russia has apparently attacked Poland, which could be massive news for the market - a lot of investors will get spooked and sell shares. Shopify relies on online purchases, so there is both an advantage and a disadvantage for them.
Another factor I've spotted which I believe is great for the long term potential of $SHOP is the growth in ecommerce sales and the number of people starting ecommerce businesses. The recent downward economy has forced a lot of businesses to go online, growing the customer base and number of businesses that operate online. As we already know, ecommerce is booming already, but Statista predicts that global ecommerce sales will rise massively to over $8.1TRILLION! In 2021, this figure was just over $5.1trillion.
ABC BullishStop somewhere under C or under 32.34.
Target is D.
There is a resistance zone at B.
If price manages to surpass this R, possible further targets are 49.20, 53.75, and 59 to 67.
Short is around 3%.
Earnings 2-13 BMO.
No recommendation
SHOP Base breakout potentialObvious inverse H&S in play. Like it long above the box with targets at the fib levels above. Risk would be a move back below the 236/50 fibs. Needs broad market support and must happen before earnings.
SHOP Inverse H&S Pattern and TargetInverse H&S pattern developed here. The price might shoot up another 48% from here to 72.85 level. The same pattern can be observed on several other stocks.
Of course if price falls below 35.50, this idea will be invalidated. However, looking at the structure of the overall market, it seems likely that the price will keep rising higher in the coming days at least and this target can be achieved easily.
A clear break out can also be seen from the neck level.
SHOP Long as inverse H&S pattern and market structure in favorInverse H&S pattern developed here. The price might shoot up another 48% from here to 72.85 level. The same pattern can be observed on several other stocks.
Of course if price falls below 35.50, this idea will be invalidated. However, looking at the structure of the overall market, it seems likely that the price will keep rising higher in the coming days at least and this target can be achieved easily.
A clear break out can also be seen from the neck level.
SHOP - Inverse H&SSHOP showing strength on weekly with huge base forming with yet to breakout opportunity building.
Volumes on weekly also shows some strong momentum continuing to the upside.
Target 42-45 for now. Based on the broad market, this has opportunity to move even further
Shopify ,,, trending Uptrend
In my strategy, it's started net trend and it could be a good opportunity for entry to a long-term trading position. As always putting a sure SL is essential for protecting our assets.
Shopify - Reasons to add to my portfolio Nothing better than a bear market if you wanna make life changing profit.
I have been following Shopify since May 2021. Clarified where I will begin to buy.
40CAD and 23CAD were 2 of them.
Went long at 40 and will add at 23 if it keeps dropping.
40 was 2019 support
23 is 2018 resistance
My target is between 100-150
I am a long term investor and has alot of patience. Therefore, short time moves dont interest me.
In time, I created my own ETF by adding stocks which came to my point of interest and very happy with it.
Some are in profit some are not for now. My focus is total profit and will always be.
None of my comments are investment advise and are for my personal journal.
SHOP Bottom in - Buy signalSHOP is a buy at this level.
1. Inverse H&S breaking ... need weekly close above 45.5
2. ema 12 and 26 about to cross.
Once both these are confirmed its a buy
Nice head and shouldersDespite some pressure by ma50, BB and RSI, this pattern may play out.
Trade safe.
Shopify long ideasShopify (SHOP) potential long play
The e-commerce company rose nearly 5% after being upgraded to buy from hold by Deutsche Bank, which said brands are growing increasingly interested in Shopify.
Price action via the weekly chart view has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, testing the neckline area $43-44. A break above could open the door for a fast move towards $55 and then the target area of $66.
$SHOP Inverse head and shouldersReal nice inverse head and shoulders here on Shop with a higher right shoulder. Rising momentum and volatility.
SHOP - Ready to trend soon?SHOP had been building a rounding base for the past 9 months with 2 (failed) attempts to break it's neckline @ 45.30. The stock finally had a Golden Cross a few days ago on 18 Jan, further solidifying that it is bottoming out.
Even after golden cross has occurred, some stocks can continue to remain volatile within a range for another 2 or even 3 months. Hence a better time to enter long is to wait for a break above a significant neckline (in this case 45.30).
The aggressive trader would enter as the stock starts to break above the neckline (entry 1) although there is a chance this could be yet another false break (but with diminishing odds as the moving averages are now aligning to the upside).
A more conservative trader could wait for further upside momentum by waiting for the 1st pullback above the neckline, and then enter only when the stock starts to break above the last pivot high (entry 2).
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
ShopSuper exciting chart here. Personally I love these setups! This has a monster channel, almost lookin like an inverse head and shoulders within this choppy range. We had 2 daily wicks to 45.30. We had some daily candles that close at 41.77 and 43.25.
This gives a big range of chop so scalping an entry could be a little less clear. Ultimately piping above that 45.30 would be the safest entry upon a rip up we could play the push and then look for a pull back backtest of this range.
If I was going to try to scalp the entry anticipating a breakout of this range, I think finding support for a day or 2 on top of 41.30 could be a play, as well as a potential pull back and hold of 40-39.60 as a dip pull back level
This could have room to test 51.50 in coming month as long as markets contiue on the bullish path we are paving
