AU10Y trade ideas
10Y Bonds overbought10Y Bonds are overbought kissing 200 MA
RSI OB
MACD OB
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This is a sign the ASX could bounce as 10 years pull-back from overbought and 200 MA being resistance.
If bonds reak above 200 MA it signals a continuance in market fear and scepticism.
US10Y Already found broke above 200 MA and it is now a supporting moving average, bad sign ASX could follow.
Australia 10 Year Goverment Bond Australia Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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au10y bond shortsell au10year bond will fall head and shoulder chaer patterns markete make
we see price 2.23percent will test the price
Australia 10 Years Government Bond Australia Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Australian bond yields rise after RBA leaves key rate unchangedThe market is currently pricing 7 rate hikes ending in the Q2-Q4 2023 range.
To quote Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA:
"Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will result in a further lift in inflation over coming quarters, with an updated set of forecasts to be published in May. The main sources of uncertainty relate to the speed of resolution of the various supply-side issues, developments in global energy markets and the evolution of overall labour costs.
Financial conditions in Australia continue to be highly accommodative. Interest rates remain at a very low level, although fixed mortgage rates for new loans have risen recently. The Australian dollar exchange rate has appreciated due to the higher commodity prices and, in TWI terms, is around the level of a year ago. Housing prices have risen strongly over the past year, although some housing markets have eased recently. With interest rates at historically low levels, it is important that lending standards are maintained and that borrowers have adequate buffers.
The Board's policies during the pandemic have supported progress towards the objectives of full employment and inflation consistent with the target. The Board has wanted to see actual evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range before it increases interest rates. Inflation has picked up and a further increase is expected, but growth in labour costs has been below rates that are likely to be consistent with inflation being sustainably at target. Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the Board on both inflation and the evolution of labor costs. The Board will assess this and other incoming information as its sets policy to support full employment in Australia and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."
It is important to note the change in rhetoric with the governor mentioning that inflation could head higher with no mention of when the RBA expects to hike rates.
For the full statement, visit the official RBA website:
www.rba.gov.au
The CAPITALCOM:AUDUSD broke out of key resistance with the price increasing likely to roll over back to pre release price.
Aussie 10 Y + inflation datadot pointed CPI data from statista.
determining from history what correlation and effect rates and CPI have on asset prices
Australian housing especially.
#AU10y on log/.. ascending wedge, YCC plop!Nice ascending wedge after dropping out of the channel. Q is... Pop down there for the everything meltup then build it up again afterwards??
US 2Y Yields Spikes!!US 2Y bond yields melt up are the Central Banks losing control of the narrative and inflation continues to skyrocket causing pain around the world. AU2Y yield faced the same fate not to long ago. Yields have an inverse relationship to bonds as investors no longer interested in holding government bonds the sell and this selling causes higher yields.
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Australia 10 year Yields At the Cusp of breaking out?Like the UK, Korea, Canada, Australian yields are testing LT trend resistance.
In this case, it is also a descending wedge. It needs to take out 1.85% before we get very excited
Short Australian 10 Year YieldsAs the Australian 10 Year Yield has hit the 50% Fib Level, I am going Long Bonds (Short Yields)
Entry 1.5
Target 1
Stop loss 1.65
I believe the market reaction to Tapering (Yields going up) will be faded and yields will soon be back down to support levels.
Cheers,
Kavi
AU10Y GOV BOND RATES - HEADING LOWER We are looking at the monthly chart, as you can see a few months back rates failed to break above the trend line , Aussie bond rates look to fall lower 0.9476 could be the next target, even lower due to fundamentals( I'm sure we can all see what's happening around the world)
Up dates to be posted
Aus Government puts $4 Billion a week into this black hole Maybe they should buy some bitcoin, cause not even 4 billion a week can pump there bonds.
Just wasting Aussie Taxpayers money on a worthless asset.
They really need to wake up before they get left behind.
Education Purpose Onlythe pair follow 10 Yield spread direction (on example AUS 10 yield and USA 10 yield)
Yiels spread = AU10Y-US10Y pair AUDUSD
what a beautiful TL, watch it closely!The rate could breach this beautiful TL in the near future, watch it closely, it matters for AUD
10 Year Rates Rocket on inflation fearsBond Yields are going higher and fast. Since January bond yields have increased across the board, rising quickly in the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada especially.
Economies are rebounding and looking to show significant GDP growth during 2021 thanks to the rollout of the vaccine and reopening. This growth may (In the case of the US) be fuelled by additional fiscal stimulus but is certainly being underpinned by monetary stimulus which kept rates low during 2020.
The rise in bond yields can be attributed directly to investors expectations of future inflation expectations. The growing rates signals that investors are seeing inflation rising faster than what Central Banks have predicted and predicting that Central Banks to lift rates earlier than most have indicated (typically around 2024).
The perceived rise in inflation is largely driven by rapidly rising commodity prices. Commodity prices are at either all time highs or at record levels not seen for at least 10-15 years in the case of Copper and Iron Ore. As commodity prices increase this will flow through into inflation into the economy. E.g. Rising Iron ore prices drives up the price of steel, which makes everything from houses to cars to more expensive.
It is important to note that this is all "predicted inflation", inflation in most economies is well below the levels needed for Central Banks to act. (See numbers below). Fed Chair, Jerome Powell has a view that a rebounding economy can live with slightly higher rates and a rise in commodity prices is not enough to drive inflation across the whole market. His view is that when wages and consumer prices lift, we would start to have a problem.
US Actual = 1.4% Target = Moderately above 2.0%
AU Actual = 0.9% Target = 2-3%
CA Actual = 1.6% Target = Sustainably above 2%
NZ Actual = 1.4% Target = sustained at 2% per annum
Powell argues that the rise in commodity prices can be easily absorbed, and believes that much of that rise is just a temporary condition reflecting the reopening, and that prices will revert back to “normal” levels over time.
However, investors are seeing that if inflation takes off, the Fed and other Central Banks will be unable to hold rates at current low levels. And if the current trend in higher yields continues, this will have significant impacts for the stock market.
AUDJPY Up and AwayAs the gap rapidly grows between the Australian 10 Year Rates and Japanese 10 Year Rate, the AUDJP carry trade becomes even more desirable. This week as the pair soared above 83.50 - levels that it has not seen since late in 2018 and the currency pair is currently trading around 83.6.
There are several fundamental factors driving this trend.
Australia's economy is rebounding and this is sending Australian 10 year rates higher. This is despite the RBA increasing its QE program at is last meeting in February.
The commodity boom in copper and Iron Ore is creating demand for the Australian dollar and sending it even higher
Meanwhile Japan is struggling with the virus. While it's 10 year rates are rebounding in percentage terms, the absolute gains are well below the basis point gains being by Australian 10 year rates.
Meanwhile bets are growing that The Bank of Japan will signal negative interest rates at its meeting in March - so this is keeping the lid on the Japanese rates for now.
With the fundamentals favouring continued growth, and without a major risk reset, it is likely that the growing gap between the two countries 10 year rates will continue to expand. This means $84 and $85 will be within the currency pair's sights.
AUDNZD leaning AUD way despite growing NZD yields outshiningNZ Ten Year Yields have rocketed up in recent days, reaching a high of 1.54% yesterday. This is a major climb from its yearly opening where it hovered around 1%.
While Australian 10 Year Yields are also growing this year, a more dovish RBA has helped to cap yield gains. At its recent meeting, the RBA opted to increase its quantitative easing program by a further A$100 billion. This is to keep the Central Bank in line with its global peers in a move to stamp out any speculation of premature tapering.
So while the disparity between the two rates continues to climb, the AUDNZD, which is typically strongly correlated with the difference between the two currencies has chosen to diverge and move higher. The continued climb in Iron Ore and Copper prices has provided significant strength to the Aussie and helped it keep ahead of its rival neighbour for now.
AUDJPY on the UP Despite Japanese 10 Year yields tripling in recent weeks, (Up from 0.02% to 0.06%) that increase is well below the rise in the Australian Ten Year Yields.
As a result the "carry trade" gap between the two ten year year rates is increasing steadily and likely to continue to do so. All other things being equal should support further growth in the AUDJPY pair.
NZ 10 Year Yields edge past AU - AUDNZD may fallWhile CA, US, JP and AU yields have dropped in the general risk off mood across markets, NZ Yields have gone against the grain and in the "yield- off" between the AU and NZ 10 Year Yields, NZ has just edged past their pacific neighbour, with the 1% target in mind. The AUDUSD is still trading at around $1.07, however indications are that this may dive lower, as the currency trade typically lags the yield rate differential by 1-3 days.
NZ 10 Year yields soar past AU 10 year yields. Weighed down by $100billion worth of QE, yields on the Aussie 10 Year Government Bonds have risen, but not as fast as their kiwi counterparts. NZ 10 Year yields have today risen past AU 10 year yields for the first time since July, sending the NZDUSD to within a hair's breadth of 0.70c (0.6994). With the NZD outlook brighter, and a less dovish RBNZ, No doubt the kiwi will continue to climb in coming days on the back of rising 10 year yields.
