BXY trade ideas
GBP This can be funGBP broke out of the first falling wedge (blue) heading for the bigger falling wedge. Target of a falling wedge is 100% retracement of the wedge. So breakout of the yellow trendline sets this up for a moonshot. I have euro and chf as counterpairs.
Pound Outlook (BXY) Next 30 DaysI am not one to study the news and we all know that Brexit is a mess. I don't study the Brexit play-by-play because by the time news drops it is usually too late in my opinion. Every trader sees the market different. That is just my outlook. I am a very technical based analyzer.
In my opinion Brexit can create more strength or more weakness and uncertainty like it has been.
With that being said it is kind of up in the air for me at the moment.
The ABC wave had a .707 retracement. The extension of that wave (BCD) was .141 and upon completion, we saw bearish sentiment slow down a bit.
The reason I believe these ratios are important are because they are perfect reciprocals of each other.
When we see retracements of .618, and price then extend to a 1.618 extension price usually reverses...it is because they are reciprocals.
The same goes for .786 & 1.27
.707 is a reciprocal of 1.41
This does not happen every time but it is common.
At the moment I believe the BXY will test the current bearish trendline I have drawn, but the real question is where will it go from there? Down or Up?
I rather wait and see more decisiveness from the market before choosing a side.
I have a feeling it will break the trend...but we all know where emotions get you in this game right?....
Enjoy!
GBP INDEX , on the long term , weekly chartas we are purely technical , we only look at what the chart tell us . and in this case we can see that there is a divergence on the weekly chart with the price sitting on a major support area, with rsi oversold.
reasons to look for ling on the pound ( position trading as this analysis is based on the weekly chart)
1- divergence
2- strong support
GBP INDEX- GO longLooks like right shoulder will form now .
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Daily Dollar Analysis - Non Farms Payroll DayOK after Wednesdays FED meeting the Dollar found some strength and now looks like it might break out of the 7 week corrective structure (triangle?) Today we get non farms payroll employment figures so we'll see how that effects the dollars progress.
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This is not investment advice but rather for educational purposes only
Steve Nixon
Trainer & Mentor
BXY Sell IdeaBXY Sell Idea @ Monthly Supply Zone (144.5 - 151.4)
Sell Limit: 144.2
Stop Loss: 151.7
Take Profit: 136.6
D1 BXY (British pound currency index) High probability to start Buying GBPxxx pairs and Selling xxxGBP.
GBP's historical "Complex head and shoulders top" (bear market)Looking at the historical charts of British pound (since 1953) I noticed that it formed quite a fine complex head and shoulders with double top and multiple shoulders. This pattern is described in detail by Thomas Bulkowski in the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. The performance of this pattern in bear market is 8 out of 21. The breakout from neckline occurred in the early 2017. In 60 % of cases of "complex head and shoulders tops" pullbacks occur in 60 % of cases (in bear market) what we have just witnessed. Price pulled back to neckline. Percentage meeting price target is 45 % and tall patterns perform better than short ones (we do have a tall head of 17 months span). If the rally meets the price target, it will be the ultimate historical bottom for GBP, lower than the decline of 1985! This will cause economic turmoils in the UK (situation is already tense because of Brexit turmoil) and possible secession of pro-EU Scotland. This decline is not surprising as GBP has been in decline since 1953 - it dropped from 2.81 to 1.35 against the USD in the course of 68 years). I believe this is a great chance for long term sells of GBPJPY (JPY as standalone index already shines bullish and is going to rise through summer and fall), GBPCAD (as CAD is to strengthen through the summer, from early June I would say), GBPCHF (frank is also strong and is starting a bullish rally this month, bullish signs already in play), GBPNZD (from July when Kiwi will turn bullish) and GBPUSD too. We will see massive bearish rallies on those pairs this year. EURGBP isnt a good choice as both currencies are in decline (forming a consolidating market), though GBP is gonna move down faster.
