Bobl yield retraces to a better RR buy zoneBy the weekly chart setup 2,25 - 2,40 % yield zone is clearly a good RR to bet for bearish yields and accumulate longs in 5 year Bobl through FGBMH4 futures.
DE05Y trade ideas
5Y Germany Government Bond Yield- higher rates to comeLooking at the long-term picture of EUROZONE interest rates, it looks clear that rate are going to return to positive rates in the medium-term. We got positive MACD and good support lower (in yield terms) and we are climbing out of negative (now a mere -0.015%). I feel we may see during 2022 1% positive yields again for the 5-Year government bond.
Short the #BOBLUS 5y yield is up appr. 8 bps today to 1.16 %. US 2y is moving at same pace. Yet, this odd German 5y Yield is still stuck at - 57 bps??? How long will it take until market starts testing ECB? How long can the European Central Bank communicqate the "transitory" BS narrative? How long until everybody realises that inflation is not only a US phenomenon, but a global issue?
I do not see a major downside to sell the Bobl now at the weekly key level (wekly Senkou B), even though we don't have a clear yield reversal (sell) signal yet.
Eurusd vs De05yA monthly trend on 5 yrs German bond yields hitting -1 for the first time this March. You dont see all those fine tops on eurusd:)
De05y seems to keep dropping somewhat more, forming a descending triangle?
Right now its already below zero. Who is buying German bonds with a negative return? Many assume German bonds to be a safe haven in covid crisis.
Seem like instability in EURUSD is bcs all short term German bond yields going ever deeper into the negative zone.
The big question is how far De05y can drop? -2 -3? I think there is a limit. Who would borrow to the government with -10 return? The trend might hover around 0 - -1.
German 2/5 seems to be sticky around 0 bp German 2/5 has broken -ve but seems to be sticky around 0 bp. This feels like it should more -ve.
German 2/5 looks sensible at 3bp. German 2/5 hasn't gone negative yet. At 3bp it still gives something. I would think this goes negative but who knows.
German 2/5 curves steepening feels over done Looking at the the 2/5 German curve. Feels like the curve has over stretched steepening during this sell off in Bunds. Should flatten with an other rally. Will monitor the curve to see if it sells off a little. Again just an opinion and not advice (I have no skin in the game).
