de30 We start a new year with de30 The general trend is up and the goals are very big
Please be patient
Keep calm in the buying positions and take profits with each step or invest in the medium term as the market is still up
DEU40 trade ideas
Bearish AB=CD & Wyckoff Thrust in a Bear Flag38,2% retracement of the AB leg featured a Wyckoff Thrust pattern ( bull trap) that triggered my entry at C for a long term bearish move. Profit target is a symmetrical CD leg .
Using tight stop loss because there is a valid 50 % retracement from November lows that can see higher prices .
Always Trade what you see and use good risk management 🍻
GER40 LONG Below is a high-level, multi-timeframe trading plan for GER40 (DAX) that synthesizes the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour analyses you provided. As always, manage risk carefully, adapt to changing market conditions, and remember that no setup is guaranteed. This is a technical overview for educational purposes and not financial advice.
1. Overall Market Context
Weekly Bias:
• Trend: Bullish structure with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
• Support/Resistance:
• Support near 19,750 (0.618 Fib extension)
• Resistance near 20,500 (recent HH)
• Indicators:
• SMAs (10, 50, 100, 200) all sloping up.
• Ichimoku Cloud is bullish, OBV rising, RSI ~60 (positive), ADX is low (trend not very strong but still bullish).
Daily Bias:
• Trend: Overall bullish, but short-term pullback has price near support.
• Key Levels:
• 19700–19650 is a confluence zone (50 SMA, Ichimoku Base Line, 0.5 Fib).
• 20500 is major resistance (recent swing high).
• Indicators:
• Price above 100 & 200 SMAs (long-term uptrend intact).
• Price below 10 SMA and Ichimoku Conversion Line (short-term bearish tilt).
• RSI ~49 (neutral), MFI ~50 (neutral), ADX ~20 (weak trend).
4H Bias:
• Trend: Range/consolidation after fall from 20500.
• Price Position:
• Below 10, 50, 100 SMAs, but finding support near 200 SMA (~19750).
• Ichimoku Cloud signals short-term bearishness (price below the cloud).
• Indicators:
• OBV still positive relative to previous HL (buyers holding but not aggressively adding).
• CMF slightly positive (~0.10), MFI ~32 (nearing oversold), RSI ~45.
• ADX ~22 (weak momentum), with -DI > +DI (mild short-term bearish pressure).
Takeaway:
• The long-term trend (Weekly, Daily) remains bullish.
• A short-term pullback is unfolding (Daily, 4H).
• We want to align with the bigger uptrend but confirm a short-term reversal signal before entering.
2. Actionable Trading Setup
A. Preferred Direction: Long/Bullish
Given the weekly and daily uptrend, the ideal plan is to buy the dip once the short-term down move shows signs of exhaustion or reversal.
B. Entry Triggers
1. Aggressive Early Entry
• Zone: Around 19,700–19,650 (Daily 50 SMA / 0.5 Fib / Ichimoku Base Line).
• Trigger Condition: A 4H bullish reversal candle (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar with strong rejection) or a clear break back above the 4H Ichimoku Conversion Line along with rising RSI > 50 on the 4H.
• Why Aggressive? Price is still below short-term SMAs on the 4H and below the Ichimoku cloud. You’re buying on expected support without waiting for a full breakout.
2. Conservative Breakout Entry
• Zone: Above 19,900–19,950 to reclaim the 10 SMA on the Daily and the 4H Ichimoku cloud.
• Trigger Condition: A Daily close above the 10 SMA and/or the Ichimoku Conversion Line on the Daily. This signals the short-term pullback is likely over.
• Why Conservative? Waiting for price to show proven strength, reducing false-break risk.
C. Stop Loss Placement
• Stop Loss (SL) for Aggressive Entry:
• Just below 19,600 (below the 50 SMA & 0.5 Fib).
• This levels out to a potential 100–150 point risk, depending on the precise entry.
• Stop Loss (SL) for Conservative Entry:
• Below the recent swing low (around 19,650). If the market truly regains the 10 SMA and Ichimoku levels, it shouldn’t return below that swing low if bullish momentum is resuming.
• This is a wider SL, but the setup is more confirmed.
D. Profit Targets (TP)
1. First TP:
• 20,500 (the recent swing high).
• If price approaches that level, consider locking in partial profits or moving the SL to breakeven.
2. Second TP (Optional Extension):
• 20,800–21,000 (a psychological area / possible Fib extension above the previous HH).
• Watch for weekly chart extensions or Bollinger Band upper extremes if momentum accelerates.
3. Stretch Target:
• 21,250–21,500 based on a full extension from the Weekly Fibonacci or if the market picks up strong bullish momentum.
• Only feasible if the market cleanly breaks 20,500 and a bullish daily structure continues.
E. Trade Management & Timing
1. Partial Exits:
• If you’re trading multiple contracts, consider taking partial profit at 20,500 and letting the remainder ride with a trailing stop.
2. Break-Even Stop:
• Once price is comfortably above 20,100–20,200 and holding intraday retracements, move SL to entry to lock in profits and limit downside risk.
3. Monitoring Indicators:
• Keep an eye on the 4H Ichimoku Cloud and the Daily 10 SMA for signs of ongoing bullish momentum. If price fails to hold above these levels once reclaimed, it could signal a deeper pullback.
4. Time in Trade:
• Given the Weekly and Daily structure, this is not a scalp trade. It can take days to weeks. Let the market action confirm your bias.
F. Suggested Leverage & Risk Management
• Leverage:
• Use moderate leverage (e.g., 1:5 to 1:10) if comfortable with the inherent risk. The more leverage, the higher the stress on your account if price temporarily dips.
• Always size positions so that total risk (i.e., position size * SL distance) does not exceed your account’s acceptable drawdown (e.g., 1–2% of total capital per trade).
• Risk/Reward Target:
• Aim for at least 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. For example, risking ~100–150 points to potentially gain 300+.
3. Putting It All Together
1. Wait for Support Confirmation:
• On the 4H, watch for a bullish candle near 19,700–19,650 (Aggressive) or a break above 19,900–19,950 (Conservative).
2. Enter Long Position:
• Execute the buy on the confirmed signal.
• Place SL below the identified support (19,600 or 19,650).
3. Manage the Trade Dynamically:
• Move SL to breakeven at the first sign of decent profit (~20,100+).
• Take partial TP at 20,500.
• Let the remainder ride toward 20,800–21,000 if momentum persists.
4. Stay Aligned with the Bigger Picture:
• Weekly and Daily remain bullish; short-term dips can be noise in a bull market.
• Maintain discipline if price fails to reclaim key SMAs or Ichimoku levels (exit if breakdown accelerates below 19,600).
4. Final Notes
• News & Fundamentals: While this setup is technical, be aware of any macro events (ECB, Fed, major economic releases) that can cause volatility spikes on indices like the DAX (GER40).
• Adapt if Key Levels Break:
• If price fails to hold 19,600 and closes multiple days below it, the bullish scenario may be invalidated short term. Look for deeper support in the 19,300–19,000 zone.
• Emotional Control: Trading pullbacks within an uptrend requires patience to avoid jumping in too early. Confirmation signals reduce the chance of whipsaw.
Conclusion:
• Primary Strategy: Long (buy the dip) aligned with the Weekly and Daily uptrend.
• Entry Zones: Around 19,700–19,650 (aggressive) or above 19,900–19,950 (conservative).
• Stops & Targets: SL below 19,600; TP1 ~20,500, TP2 ~20,800–21,000.
• Leverage: Keep it moderate (1:5 to 1:10).
• Indicator Cues: Watch SMAs, Ichimoku lines, RSI, and OBV for confirmation of a renewed bullish push.
Trade safe, manage your risk, and watch for momentum returning on lower timeframes to confirm the Weekly/Daily bullish bias!
DAX H1 | Potential bullish reversalDAX (GER) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,771.69 which is a swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 19,640.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 20,020.69 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Long GER40Looking to create a long position on GER40 once it drop closer to the support level as circled.
Target price as indicated and stop loss to be created slightly below the support incase of breakthrough.
Upward movement Dax is currently retesting a breakthrough point at 19800, as the indice transitioned from bearish into a bullish momentum. If the indices stabilises above, it will likely kickstart a bull-run. Failure, to stabilise above the 19800 mark, the indice may continue downwards.
Thu 2025 01 03 Long8am double ovn green, second exceeding close. H4 Hammer after midnight. Break up of bull flag in complex bear flag.
Risk: low of 2nd Jan
R/R: 1:1 as range territory and trend not confirmed yet
up trend We have an upward trend. The price made us a boss. We have a minimum and a maximum + a considerable withdrawal in the discount area of the Fibonacci level. RR=1/2
Bullish bounce?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 19,678.38
1st Support: 19,487.74
1st Resistance: 19,978.37
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[DAX30] Short ContinuationNew entry for the swing short position, very small SL for a big potential.
Great trade !
Ger40, Caution advised for the perma bulls!!We've completed a large overarching turquoise structure, reaching the target levels. Simultaneously, we've hit the target levels of the orange structure and reacted immediately. This indicates we might head down to the OCL (Overall Correction Level) to gather new momentum.
So, I anticipate a possible scenario where we first gain some upward momentum (as indicated in the green box) before turning and heading downward. Caution is advised for those who believe the German economy will continue to grow without corrections, as we are currently in a significant correction phase.
2024-01-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and happy new year.
comment: Xetra (futures are currently trading 143 points higher) closed the year 2024 below 20000 and bulls could not get a decent bounce during the most bullish days of the year. My base assumption for the next days/weeks is a bigger second leg down which will leave no doubt that this bull trend is over and investors would be lucky to see 2025 close near 20000. There is a much greater chance of a decent bear year where market corrects a big chunk of the past 2 years and then moves sideways for the rest of the year.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19600 - 20200
bull case: Very weak price action by the bulls the past week. We have a big open gap between 20032 - 20241 and until bulls close that, bears are in control. If bulls manage to close above 20000 again, the odds of closing the gap will be good. We have the start of 2025 and you never know which side it will turn. Both 2023 and 2024 saw huge inflows and the start of the year also marked the low of the year. Bulls hope this time will be the same but I have big doubts about that.
Invalidation is below 19800.
bear case: Bears are in control. Decent two-legged pullback after the sell-off, we are trading below the daily 20ema and the bull bars last week were bad buys for the bulls. Bears expect a bigger profit taking to take place over the next days and another leg down to at last 19200 or even 19000. Their next target is a close below the breakout point 19660 to confirm the first leg and I doubt many bulls will hold long below 19600 because we could go and test the bull trend line around 19200. I can’t see this breaking much below 19000 for now because that price was tested so much between October and December, that we will likely go sideways there for many days.
Invalidation is above 20150.
short term: Neutral around 19900. Bearish below 19800 and uber bearish below 19600 for 19200 or lower.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Market was closed
DAX TODAYDAX TODAY is buy at the moment but.......
For me DAX start to deeper down.
On screen you see my view at the moment
GER40/DAX "GERMANY 40" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Entry 📉 : You can enter a short trade at any point.
however I advise placing sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 3H period, the recent / nearest high level.
Target 🎯: 19,300 or Before 19,400
Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Economic Factors:
Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China and the US, could negatively impact German exports and growth.
Trade tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China, as well as between the US and the EU, could negatively impact German exports and growth.
Brexit uncertainty: The ongoing Brexit process could lead to uncertainty and volatility in the European markets.
Monetary Policy Factors:
ECB's monetary policy: A less accommodative monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), potentially leading to higher interest rates, could negatively impact the index.
Interest rate differential: A widening interest rate differential between the US and the EU could lead to a stronger USD and weaker EUR, negatively impacting the index.
Geopolitical Factors:
EU political instability: Political instability in the EU, potentially driven by a more fragmented European Parliament, could negatively impact the index.
Global geopolitical tensions: Escalating global geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, could negatively impact the index.
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any decisions.
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DAX/SPX - long - increase of approx 50%DAX/SPX 'crashed' in March 2003 and then a higher low was created in February 2022. You see an upward trend – just like before from 1992 and (also) 1980 – with the yellow line being respected again (touched in November 2024). The yellow lines are exactly the same. I expect the top of the channel to be touched, so around 5. From the current level, that is an increase of about 50%.
We are on the eve of 1995, i.e. a rising stock market (final phase of the long-term bull market), but EU indices will overtake US indices for the time being.
See also my other idea, you see the same with AEX/SPX. European indices are lagging behind those of the US.
DAX // neutral zoneThe market has turned south, after reaching the weekly target fibo 200, with a daily wave, and then tested the last clean daily breakout, but couldn't close above it.
It's between a daily breakout and a daily breakdown, that makes it a neutral zone. Leaving this zone (up north there is a clean H4 breakdown that may stop the bulls) puts the market either in the primary long expansion phase, or the countertrend expansion.
The target of the former is the weekly target fibo 213.2, the short target is the monthly breakout.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
<<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
DAX 40 BULLISHWith rising record highs despite underlying economic and political challenges in Germany. I currently see an uptrend in motion for the DAX 40:
1.) Anticipation of lower Interest Rates from the ECB
2.) Strong Performance of leading companies such is Rheinmetall and Siemens and Deutsche Telekom
3.)Historical trends and Patters this time of year
GER40 - Short Setup My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Fri 2024 12 13 Long||| Stats |||
Stats Week:
** Mid Month Turn,
** US CPI: 14:30, - as expected,
** Thu EU GC 14:15:, - reduced as expected,
** Mon Morning rule, - yes,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change, - yes
Stats Month:
** Christmas Rally - start Mid Nov. - yes bottom
** Christmas Rally - US election year, start Dec. - yes
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H3
** Time:
* 03pm,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* Momentum Long,
* Mon Morning rule,
* Tue return to W1 trend - UP,
* Senti, - P16,
** Mom Width:
* 6 candles - med/strong,
** Mom Type:
* 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* last Mom Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as at ATH,
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
Analysis
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Germany 40 maintains its bullish correction phase, currently trading at 19,937, below the VWAP (20) of 20,121. Support is positioned at 19,680, while resistance is at 20,562. The RSI at 50 reflects neutral momentum, indicating a pause in the prior uptrend.
UK 100 index remains neutral within its long-lasting consolidation phase, trading at 8,218, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 8,183. Support is at 8,040, with resistance at 8,326. An RSI of 55 signals moderate momentum, hinting at slight bullish tendencies within the range.
Wall Street is in a bullish correction phase, trading at 42,375, below the VWAP (20) of 43,064. Support is located at 41,941, with resistance at 44,188. The RSI at 32 suggests oversold conditions, potentially signaling a reversal higher.
Brent Crude has finally flipped from its sideways range into a new bullish impulsive phase, trading at 7,642, above the VWAP (20) of 7,361. Support is at 7,144, while resistance is at 7,578. The RSI at 70 indicates overbought momentum, suggesting near term caution for further upside.
Gold remains neutral in a consolidation phase, trading at 2,658. It has just broken back over the VWAP (20) of 2,635, which has defined the top of a short-term range. Support is at 2,574, and resistance is at 2,695. The RSI at 55 shows balanced momentum with a new bullish tilt, but still consistent with the ongoing range-bound market.
EUR/USD remains very bearish with euro-dollar parity coming into view. It is in an impulsive phase, trading at 1.0267, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0428 . Support is at 1.0297, with resistance at 1.0559. The RSI at 28 highlights oversold conditions, suggesting potential downside exhaustion.
GBP/USD is in a bearish impulsive phase, breaking down below a rising trendline drawn by Autotrend trading at 1.2380, below the VWAP (20) of 1.2589. Support is positioned at 1.2416, with resistance at 1.2761. The RSI at 30 indicates bearish momentum, with the oversold level consistent with a strong downtrend.
USD/JPY continues its bullish impulsive phase, trading at 157.35, above the November high and the VWAP (20) of 155.76. Support is at 151.82, with resistance at 159.70. The RSI at 62 reflects strong upward momentum, supporting the bullish trend.
GER30 Targets 1-Year Pivot PointHello,
FX:GER30 appears poised for further downside, with the next likely target being the 1-year pivot point (1Y PP).
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars but price went nowhere. We are still below the daily 20ema and this looks like a shallow pull-back in a bear trend. Bears need a strong close below 19800 to confirm it. If bulls close above 20000 again, bears could give up and we test higher again. Market is in breakout mode and we will see a bigger move next week. Right now I see the odds 60/40 for the bears.
comment: I don’t have anything to add to my tl;dr paragraph.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range.
key levels: 19600 - 20100 (below 19600, 19000/19200 come into play / above 20100, 20400 or higher is possible again)
bull case: Bulls are preventing the market from making a new low for now but they fail to close daily bars above 20000. Once they do that again with follow-through, they likely took control of the market again and we could expect higher prices above 20200 again. Their first target above 20000 is to close the bear gap to 20240 and above that there is no more resistance until 20400.
Invalidation is below 19600.
bear case: Bears are doing good in keeping the market below 20000 which is the most important price for both sides. I still favor the bears to get a second leg down to 19200/19400 but those odds will only rise if we close below 19600. Market is currently in balance.
Invalidation is above 20100.
short term: Slightly bearish but once this goes with some momentum above 20000 again that bearish bias is gone. Bears have the setup here and now and if they fail to break down below 19600 early next week I will view this as neutral or bullish if we go above 20100.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
DAX 40It looks like DAX 40 still needs some time to show, what the direction will be. I THINK it will first manipulate a little bit before going down for a new low. After that I THINK it will remain bullish. This is just an idea, let's see what will happen.
