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US 30 Index – Potential Rebound or Deeper Retracement Ahead?Just as the US 30 became the last of the three major US indices to register a new all time high last Monday at 45160, on a final wave of positivity generated by the announcement of a trade deal between the US and EU, it was snatched away again as traders used the up move to take profit on longs. This initial fall evolved into 5 straight daily declines which took the index from its record high of 45160 on Monday to a Friday close at 43591 as the sell off accelerated, driven by disappointment of a more hawkish than expected Fed, a new wave of trade tariffs from President Trump, weaker Amazon earnings , and on Friday, perhaps the biggest surprise of all, a Non-farm Payrolls release that showed the US labour market may be weakening faster than anticipated. Looking forward, with the shock of Friday’s data reverberating through markets, US 30 traders still have lots to think about this week. The US ISM Services PMI release is due at 1500 BST on Tuesday. Service activity has been the major driver of growth in the US economy for the last 18 months, so this new update could have a big influence over where the US 30 index moves next. Any reading below 50 = economic contraction, while readings above 50 = economic expansion, and traders could well be focused on how this month’s print stacks up against last month’s reading of 50.8. The earnings releases of 3 bellwether US corporates may also be relevant, given their US 30 index weightings. Caterpillar reports its Q2 results before the market open on Tuesday, with McDonald’s and Walt Disney reporting before the open on Wednesday. Traders may be looking to compare actual earnings against expected, alongside assessing any future revenue guidance that is provided against the current trade tariff operating environment. Now, while the US 30 index has opened this new trading week on a more stable footing, currently trading up 0.25% at 43705 at the time of writing (0530 BST), assessing the technical outlook for the week ahead could also be useful for traders. Technical Update: Deeper Retracement Risk Emerging? While it might be argued that it was the reaction to the latest US employment data that saw US equities encounter fresh selling pressure, as the chart below shows, prices were already declining into Friday’s payrolls release. Price weakness was materialising in the US 30 index right after it posted its new all-time high on Monday July 28th at 45160, and traders might now argue that last Thursday’s close below support provided by the Bollinger mid-average, currently at 44412, was the first potential indication that a more extended phase of price weakness was possible. The case was then perhaps strengthened by Friday’s negative reaction to the payrolls data, which saw closing breaks under support provided by the July 16th last correction low at 43770. There is of course no guarantee that this price action will result in a retracement of the April 7th (36440) to July 28th strength (45160), but assessing what may be the potential support and resistance levels to monitor this week could be helpful, if the recent volatility continues to dominate price action at the start of August. Possible Support Levels: Last week’s price decline held at the 43337 level which was the August 1st low, and having previously found buyers at this point, they may be found again. As such, this 43337 level could now prove to be the first support focus for the week ahead. Closing breaks below 43337, if seen, could lead to the possibility of further price declines, opening potential to test the next support at 41824, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April to July 2025 price strength (see chart above). Possible Resistance Levels: Having now seen the Bollinger mid-average for the US 30 index turn lower after last week’s fall, this may now be the first resistance level to watch on any subsequent rally higher. It currently stands at 44442 and watching how this level is defended on a closing basis could be useful. If a more sustained phase of price strength is to materialise, it could be closing breaks above the mid-average at 44442 that increases the possibility of it happening. Such moves could then see retests of the July 28th all-time high at 45160, possibly higher if this level is then breached on a closing basis. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. 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PEPPERSTONE:US30
by Pepperstone
1
Dow Jones August GameplanNow that the first trading day of August has printed, can one reliably forecast the possible month based on just the first day? I am inclined to believe that one can with a small amount of accuracy. Not perfect. There are two types of monthly cycles when the first traded day is a bearish candle right from the open of the month. Type 1 is a bearish trending cycle that trends lower and lower. It is then followed up by small number of bullish pullbacks halfway through the month before rolling back over and closing near the lows. Type 2, more common, is when the first traded day is bearish right from the get-go as well, trades lower but reverses near the beginning of the month before trading higher than the open and forming a bullish bar. So, in my opinion, there are only two probably outcomes for August. Type 1: Type 2:
TVC:DJIShort
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
US30 (15M) – Bearish Reversal Setup, Short Opportunity📊 Analysis: The US30 index on the 15-minute chart is showing signs of a bearish reversal after a recent upward push. Key technical observations: 1. Price Action & Structure * US30 has been trading in a minor uptrend, but momentum is weakening. * The latest 15M candles show lower highs forming near resistance, suggesting exhaustion in buying pressure. 2. Resistance Zone * The price is rejecting a strong intraday resistance zone near 43641.90. * Multiple failed attempts to break above this level reinforce it as a key barrier. 3. Target Levels * First support target: 43206.96 – a minor support from previous structure. * Secondary target: 41911.76. 4. Risk Management * Suggested stop-loss: Above the recent swing high. * Risk/reward ratio: Aim for at least 1:2 to ensure proper trade efficiency. ✅ Summary: US30 on the 15-minute chart is showing a bearish setup. ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by Heheheueiwiienebebe
1
Bullish bounce off overlap support?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a swing high resistance. Pivot: 44,596.08 1st Support: 44,267.57 1st Resistance: 45,106.42 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US30Long
by ICmarkets
3
*US30: Fifth Wolfe Wave in Play—Correction Offers Prime Shorting📉 * The US30 index has completed its **fifth Wolfe Wave**, initiating the expected downward move. While price is currently undergoing a corrective bounce, this retracement is shaping up to be a golden opportunity for sellers. 🔍 **Technical Breakdown** - ✅ Wolfe Wave structure is confirmed, with wave 5 marking the turning point. - 🔄 Current price action shows a **corrective pullback**, typical after the initial drop. - 📌 Any upward movement is viewed as a **strategic entry point for short positions**. 🎯 **Target Zone** We’re eyeing a descent toward the **41,700 level**, which aligns with the equilibrium line drawn between **waves 1 and 4**—a classic Wolfe Wave target. ⚠️ **Trade Insight** This setup blends harmonic precision with tactical timing. As long as price remains below the wave 5 peak, the bearish bias holds strong. Sellers are watching for signs of exhaustion in the correction to strike. ---
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by Elrouby
Dow Jones Triple Top & Critical Trendline Break - Buy The Dip?Potential Tripple Top formation spotted on the Dow. This would represent a full fibonacci retracement, which leads me to believe a 38.2 retest is likely. If this 23.6 level can hold support and price does not close below the fib band (orange channel), then the bullish continuation to new all time highs can still happen in Q3/Q4 of this year. The clear trendline break dating back to April is very concerning (white line), leading me to believe more downside in the coming weeks. Let me know what you think in the comments! Thanks
SKILLING:US30
by Lorenz_Capital
2
US30 Rejected Support at 43340 – Bearish Below 43960US30 – Overview The price rejected perfectly from the projected support at 43340 and currently maintains a bearish momentum as long as it trades below the pivot level at 43960. As long as the price remains under this level, we expect a move toward 43630, and a break below that may lead to a retest of 43340. However, a 4H candle close above 43960 would shift the outlook to bullish, with upside potential toward 44170 and possibly 44360. Support: 43630 • 43340 Resistance: 44170 • 44360 Bias: 🔻 Bearish below 43960 🔺 Bullish confirmation on 4H close above 43960
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
US30 Faces Pressure Below 44610US30 Overview Technical Outlook: US30 is showing bearish momentum while trading below the pivot zone at 44610. As long as the price remains under this level, downside pressure may continue toward 44360, with further support at 44180. However, a confirmed breakout above 44720 would shift the bias to bullish, opening the path toward 44910 and potentially 45100. Support Levels: 44480 • 44360 • 44180 Resistance Levels: 44720 • 44910 • 45100 Bias: Bearish below 44610, Bullish above 44720
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
Dow Jones Index Analysis (US30 / Dow Jones):🔹 The index broke below a key support zone yesterday and is now consolidating between 44,720 USD and 44,620 USD. 1️⃣ If bullish momentum leads to a break and close above 44,740 USD, the price may retest the 44,970 USD zone. 2️⃣ However, if the price breaks below 44,600 USD and holds, a decline toward 44,350 USD is likely. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
VANTAGE:DJ30Long
by Fadi_radar