DJI trade ideas
FXBG JOURNAL (US30 SHORT) 9/04/2025 BEFOREFollowing Bearish Price Action . Decided to take shorts from the recent bearish Orderblock.
Intraday Entry 2Everything is pretty much explained in the picture itself.
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uptrend Considering the behavior of the index in the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified. An upward trend is expected to form and progress to the specified resistance range.
US30 I Bullish Bounce Based on the D1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 36,516.88, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 40,052.43, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 34,049.36, an overlap support.
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Trade Idea : US30 Short ( SELL STOP )Technical Analysis Summary:
Daily Chart:
โข Trend: Strong bearish breakdown; significant drop below support.
โข MACD: Deeply negative, suggesting strong bearish momentum.
โข RSI: Oversold at 18.48, indicating exhaustion but not yet reversal.
15-Minute Chart:
โข Trend: Clear downtrend continuation.
โข MACD: Bearish crossover sustained.
โข RSI: Approaching oversold (29.81), but still trending down.
3-Minute Chart:
โข Trend: Momentum is slowing down but still bearish.
โข MACD: Negative, bearish crossover.
โข RSI: Around 33, indicating potential short-term bounce, but no bullish divergence.
โธป
Fundamental Insight:
โข The broader US30 index has reacted to strong macroeconomic headwinds (possibly higher-for-longer interest rates, weak earnings, or geopolitical tensions).
โข No signs of dovish reversal or major catalyst for a sharp recovery.
โธป
Trade Idea: SHORT POSITION
Entry: 37070 (current price zoneโideal entry on slight retracement)
Stop Loss (SL): 37320 (above minor resistance and recent local high)
Take Profit (TP): 36350 (strong daily support area and psychological level)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
โข Risk: ~270 points
โข Reward: ~700 points
FUSIONMARKETS:US30
US30 LongsWe see price rejecting off a15m demand but we expect price to go deeper into the zone, which will give us a rejection off the trendline support. for safe longs we wait for price to cross and close above 37190
DJI being squeezed into a long term bearish wedgeI know, I sound like a bear monger when the market looks very bullish and at best possible technical support. Nothing wrong with taking advantage of it, but shouldn't forget the bigger picture. The market valuation has been pushed up by easy money since GFC and valuation. The covid money printing made it worse. Bigger the bubble, bigger the burst
With recession around the corner and many hedge funds are facing margin calls, the risks are highest from all metrics, market/GDP, Pe ratios, real income growth, jobs are all slowing down, Debt to GDP has only accelerated. Fringe Economist have been crying wolf since GFC and they are not wrong but when ? This year ?
The market could rally one last leg up to finish in a ending diagonal (if you know wave theory)
US30 Outlook โ 08/04/25The Dow Jones (US30) has shown a strong recovery from the recent low at 36,743, bouncing nearly 1,900 points after a steep selloff. Price is now consolidating just under the 38,800 level โ a key short-term resistance zone.
๐ Technical Breakdown:
โ
EMA crossover on the 1H suggests a shift in short-term momentum to the upside
โ๏ธ38,800โ39,200 is the immediate resistance zone to clear
๐ Macro trend remains bearish unless bulls reclaim 40,000+
๐ป Below 38,000, bears may regain control and retest 37,300 โ 36,743
๐งญ Bias:
Neutral-Bearish in the macro view
Bullish short-term if price holds above 38,400 and breaks 38,800 cleanly
๐ Levels to Watch:
Support: 38,400 / 37,300 / 36,743
Resistance: 38,800 / 39,200 / 40,000
๐ง Summary:
This bounce looks strong, but it's still a relief rally within a bearish structure. Bulls need a confirmed breakout above 39,200 to flip the narrative. Until then, treat rallies with caution and keep an eye on momentum shifts at resistance.
Weekly Forex Outlook Sun.April.6.2025 - Fri.April.11.2025Like and Comments would be appreciated :D Not Financial Advice, Just my outlook/opinion
Basic market concept EX1Basic Market Concepts are essentially market examples of the Market Cycle.
Putting it into simple context can help traders know when the market will be ranging (horizontally), where the support and resistance zones are and see how market behavior looks like.
DOW testing long term trend lineTrendline is a support...Dow is testing it as I type,,If it holds well and good..But I dont think it will hold..There is more pain...trendline break will be confirmation.
DJI - Rising Wedge + Double TopDJI showing a rising wedge which is a bearish pattern on this Daily chart
Also right before the prior down movement is a double top in red
Breakdown further out of this rising wedge pattern
US30 MELTDOWN! โ 07/04/25๐ฅ US30 MELTDOWN! โ April 7, 2025 ๐ฅ
๐ Historic Drop: Dow Jones tanks nearly 3,000 points in just days, crashing through all major support levels!
๐ Low Tagged: Price wicked into the 36,743 support zone before catching a small bounce.
๐ง Whatโs Happening?
This looks like panic sellingโlikely triggered by macroeconomic data or unexpected news. Volume is up, and structure is clearly broken.
Last Drop Before The BounceDow has completed ABC (Wave 4). Should resume downtrend in US session to 36k or just below. The market will then likely consolidate before begin a large move upside retracement over the coming week.
check the trendIt is expected that a trend change will form within the current support area and we will witness the start of the upward trend.
If the index breaks through the support area, the downtrend will continue until the next support area.
Bearish MovementThere is currently a huge dragon fly doji that might change to a hammer candle, cause a small bullish movement to 37706.55 where there is a gap before continuing downwards to 32411.88
Reversal or Continuation? US30 Tests Major SupportThe US30 is testing a pivotal multi-year trendline following an aggressive breakdown from its early 2025 highs. After months of consistent distribution near the 42,000โ44,000 range, price capitulated with a steep selloff, driving the index down toward the 37,000 level. This area aligns closely with the long-term trendline dating back to late 2023 and marks the lower boundary of the broader structural expansion.
The current reaction appears to be forming at a potential inflection point, as price hovers around the lower bounds of its macro range. The steep angle of descent suggests overextension, with momentum temporarily outpacing rational valuation zones. Meanwhile, a notable high-volume cluster from prior activity remains situated between 41,500 and 42,000 โ an area likely to attract price in the event of a technical retracement.
If buyers begin stepping in at this historically respected trendline, the market could stage a multi-week recovery, targeting this upper resistance zone. However, failure to stabilize here risks further downside, potentially exposing the market to deeper corrections toward 35,000 or lower. All eyes now turn to this structural juncture as price teeters between oversold conditions and critical support.
Bear Market Inbound!What a week, two days of plunge and the Dow sits below where Tariff Trump won.
World markets were ripe for this situation, waiting for the trigger... the trigger no doubt was Trump.
The charts do not lie, the news does not matter as much as price action, the question now is where we bottom for a while and bounce...any rally is to be sold.
Don't try and catch a falling knife, but be very careful shorting here at this point, expect a bottom this week.
Expect further selling Monday to a degree, but we are at a bottom fishing level.
Gold and especially silver were clobbered Thursday and Friday, we expected this earlier in the week and warned of toppy price action on our gold update. PM's are in a wave 4 down sideways move and next comes minor wave 5 up...long term holders have little to worry about...any pullback is a buying opportunity...$3000 gold is major support.
Appreciate a thumbs up...God Bless you all and good trading!
Dow Jones Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)๐ Dow Jones Intermediate Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)
๐ Elliott Wave Interpretation
The chart reflects a clear Elliott Wave count from the post-COVID low:
Wave I and Wave II are well-established.
Wave III is now completed, accompanied by a peak in AO โ which aligns with classical Elliott theory where AO typically peaks during the 3rd wave, showing strong momentum.
Wave IV is currently unfolding.
๐ Wave IV Characteristics (Ongoing Phase)
Wave IV is expected to be complex โ commonly forming:
Triangles (contracting or expanding),
Flats,
Double/triple threes.
It is likely to consume time and generate sideways or choppy price action.
Volumes, interestingly, are peaking again, which often occurs toward the end of Wave IV due to emotional volatility and retail panic activity.
๐ฎ Two Probable Scenarios for Wave IV Completion:
Scenario 1 (Shallow Correction):
Target Zone: ~37,400
This zone coincides with the 0.382โ0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels from Wave III.
Would reflect a simple flat or sharp zigzag structure.
Scenario 2 (Deeper Correction):
Target Zone: ~34,100
Corresponds to the lower support band with possible spike to 32,988 (FINAL FIB Support).
May occur if external macroeconomic or geopolitical triggers cause extended selling.
๐ Post Wave IV โ Projection for Wave V
Once Wave IV completes:
Wave V is expected to resume the larger bullish cycle.
Price target: New all-time highs, possibly towards the upper blue resistance trendline (~46,000+).
Watch for bullish confirmation with AO flipping and price breaking above Wave IV consolidation highs. before completing 4th wave it always create complex patterns. we need to watch the patterns and it is getting completing before move to 5th wave.
๐ AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights
AO peak confirms Wave III completion.
Negative divergence between AO and price also supports Wave V capping out, indicating exhaustion of upward momentum.
AO is now retracing โ likely bottoming during the end of Wave IV.
๐ Volume Behavior
Volume peaked at the end of Wave III โ a common occurrence.
Now rising again near Wave IV completion โ this suggests:
Panic selling,
Possible final shakeout before market stabilizes for Wave V.
Monitor for volume drop-off during Wave V's beginning โ a classic signature of reduced fear and return of trend stability.
๐ Critical Support & Resistance Levels
Level Description
37,400 Scenario 1 target / shallow correction
34,100 Scenario 2 deeper correction target
32,988 Final strong support (Fib extension)
46,000+ Potential Wave V high / upper trendline
๐ Conclusion
The intermediate trend is corrective, within a larger bullish framework.
Wave IV is currently playing out and might end soon.
Watch key support zones (37,400 and 34,100) for potential reversal setups.
Once confirmed, Wave V rally could offer significant upside opportunities.
Remain cautious during this volatile consolidation and validate reversal signs before positioning.
๐ Disclaimer
โ ๏ธ This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is based on technical chart interpretation (Elliott Wave Theory, volume, AO) and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves significant risk, including the risk of losing your capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Dow Jones 100 Year Rising WedgePeople lie. The news lies. But the CHARTS DON"T LIE.
This is a 100 year rising wedge pattern that is occurring on the DJI.
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not for another 50 years,
but this pattern will break to the downside.
As of now, a return to the original trendline is HIGHLY LIKELY.
NO FEAR, THIS IS OUT OF LOVE.
EYES OPEN.
Repeat of covid manipulation - sells to 34000 on US30.Breakdown of where US30 could be heading in the short team but also the long term.
US30 Trade Update โ 04/04/2025๐จ US30 Trade Update โ 04/04/2025 ๐จ
๐ US30 Sell-Off Intensifies!
The Dow Jones has now broken below 41,000 and is approaching the critical support at 40,063. Bears are in full control, and if this level fails, we could see a test of 39,279 next.
๐ Key Observations:
โ
Major rejection at 42,359 resistance
โ
Strong bearish momentum breaking 41,000
๐ป Next Major Support: 40,063 โ 39,279
๐ฏ Trade Plan:
๐น Short below 40,063 โ Target 39,279
๐น Look for bounce signs at 40,063 for potential reversal
๐น Long only if price reclaims 40,600+
โ ๏ธ Watch for a reaction at 40,063โthis level could determine the next major move.
