DXY trade ideas
possibility of downtrendIt is expected that the upward trend will advance to the specified resistance range and then we will see a change in trend and the beginning of the downtrend.
If the index crosses the resistance range and consolidates above this range, the continuation of the upward trend will be likely.
Continuation of DXY bullish narrative, who says NO?Like I said in my last published post, dxy is bullish for now till we see otherwise. The first TP has been reached, more than 100 pips bagged, the trade is still on but I'm looking at a possiblity of compounding here. I told you guys, this trade will make you a huge amount of money if you're willing to ride it with me.
This means bearish EURUSD AND GBPUSD et al. Trade accordingly. We may have a final sweep of 97.260 area. You can wait for that sweep before entering. I'm not, I won't be on chart then but the stop will hold. Few pips won't change the trade idea will it?
Follow me as my trades are usually market order, so you'll see them on time and enter on time.
Enjoy
Could the price reverse from here?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 98.09
1st Support: 97.38
1st Resistance: 98.49
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DXYNet USD longs increased = Bullish sentiment
Speculators adding longs / commercials reducing shorts
Price broke previous weekly high = BOS
✅ Holding weekly demand zone
Note: COT is supportive — align with technicals
US interest rate reduction?!As you can see, the US dollar index has completed a 5-wave uptrend and after touching the top of the uptrend channel and breaking the uptrend line, it is currently in the second correction wave. I expect to see the beginning of the third correction wave soon. This may coincide with the reduction of the US interest rate in next week!!
DXYInstitutions are currently holding a net short position on the Dollar, indicating bearish sentiment. With a net position of -4,282, we may expect continued weakness in the DXY, especially if price reacts from key supply zones. Swing traders should remain cautious with long setups and prioritize opportunities aligned with USD weakness across major pairs.
DXY LOCAL SHORT|
✅DXY is about to retest a key structure level of 98.000
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025DXY 7/13/2025
DXY 4hour Neutral Idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bearish
4hour - Ranging
Keep in mind, we analyze and follow DXY more so as an indicator. The USD makes up for a large portion of trade so it makes sense to analyze it.
Going into this week we can see DXY made an attempt to push higher. Where it closed on Friday is a major zone around 98.000. We’re still majorly bearish on higher time frames so we will keep that in mind throughout this week.
As always, we will mark up two potential paths for this week, they are as follows:
Bullish Breakout - The two main zones we want to bring out attention to are 98.000 resistance and 97.500 support. We will have to wait until price action leaves this area to spot a high quality setup. Look for a convincing push above 98.000 resistance followed by a retest of 98.000 but as support. Look for a higher low to form with bullish confirmation to long on.
Bearish Continuation- Going bearish is still very possible we just need to clear 97.500 support first. Look for a break below 97.500 with a confirmed lower high and convincing bearish setups to short on.
Dollar looks ready to blast off...we'll see if its a risk assetBasic, strength and pattern analysis. Dollar appears to be completing its Primary A wave of a cyclical correction. Strength has built up, the pattern looks right, and leave it to a large magnitude A wave to complete in a no man's land of Fib support...(ABC extension corrective not pictured).
I would expect a run back up to the Intermediate B over the next 6-8 months, and maybe even higher. One more low is possible, but not necessary...neither from a pattern perspective, nor from a strength perspective, although I have a little extension box below in green, and if it is to extend, that is the target.
DXY Previous weeks analysis and July 13 week ahead ideasDXY
July 13
July 7 to 11 DELIVERY NOTES
I suspected that price would gravitate for higher prices in last Sundays analysis, celebrate on
*up closed candle on the weekly, rebalancing SIBI from June 23 week
*Price retraced to close on equilibrium on the current range
*Monday delivered an expansion
*Tuesday retraced to Monday CE of the daily candle
*Wednesday consolidation
*Thursday retraced to a discount then reversed to take Mondays buy stops
*Friday expansion to make the high of the week closing on the CE of the FVG from Wed June 25
July 14 to 18 Ideas
Bear bias
*Since July 2 Price has been seeking higher prices, further example of trending market
*Price reaching equilibrium on the HTF range and buy side taken last week
*I suspect that price will retrace for sell side liquidity this week
*I anticipate for Price to gravitate towards the EV at 97.430 for the low target this week, possibly the noted equal lows from Monday July 7
*Friday's delivery was a in consolidation pattern
*Sundays delivery could gravitate to the noted equal highs and noted FVG
*I suspect that Price will expand to seek lower Prices for Mondays delivery
*Price expand higher in Sundays delivery, we could see Price retrace Fridays in FVG
No News Monday and Friday
Dollar Index AnalysisTwo possibilities for the dollar index has been shown here. We can see that dollar index is showing a short term uptrend. Which is clearly visible from the chart.
1: Dxy can maintain this short term uptrend. Because it is a monthly pullback. As it has been
for last 5 months.
2: Dxy can change character and again touches to the monthly demand zone as shown in my
previous video.
DXY-Technical Analysis DAILY Timeframe 📊 DXY – Technical Analysis (1D Timeframe)
🔷 Overall Trend:
The Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a strong downtrend for several months, forming multiple confirmed Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the downside.
However, recent price action is showing signs of momentum loss and potential exhaustion from sellers near the current lows.
🟡 Market Structure:
Price recently formed a lower low, but momentum indicators are showing bullish divergence — suggesting the downward pressure is weakening.
A small bullish reversal candle has printed, indicating potential short-term buying interest.
There is no confirmed bullish CHoCH yet, but structure is starting to slow down and compress — signaling a possible shift.
📉 Indicators (RSI ):
RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, showing potential early reversal signals.
The confirms bullish divergence and shows fading bearish momentum.
Overall, sellers are showing reduced strength, increasing the chance of a corrective move to the upside.
🔹 Key Levels:
Immediate resistance zones:
🔹 97.23 and 97.73 — key levels to watch for bullish continuation.
Major support:
🔻 96.34 – 96.50 — current low area that if broken, will confirm further downside.
✅ Conclusion:
While DXY remains structurally bearish, the recent bullish divergence, loss of selling momentum, and RSI recovery suggest the potential for a short-term correction or bounce.
A confirmed CHoCH and break above 97.73 would signal a potential shift to bullish structure.
If price fails to break resistance and drops below 96.34, the bearish trend is likely to continue.
🟢 Scenario Table:
Scenario Trigger Implication
Bullish shift Break above 97.73 with CHoCH Potential trend reversal
Continuation bearish Break below 96.34 Downtrend continuation
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asse
DXY - to provide short term bounce here DXY to bounce off key double confluence here to $100 before collapsing
deepseek→→U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlookchina deepseek↓↓
### **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlook**
#### **1. Current Market Trends and Driving Factors**
- **Trade Policies Boost the Dollar**: U.S. President Trump recently announced new tariffs on Canada (35%), the EU, and Mexico (30%), triggering risk-off sentiment and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) from 97.20 to around 98.00.
- **CPI Data as a Key Variable**: The U.S. June CPI data, released today (July 15), will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce the dollar's rally, while weak data may weaken it.
- **Shift in Market Sentiment**: Unlike the "dollar sell-off" trend in early 2025, recent market reactions have leaned toward treating the dollar as a "safe-haven asset" rather than selling it solely due to trade war concerns.
#### **2. Technical Analysis**
- **Key Resistance and Support Levels**:
- **Resistance**: 97.80-98.00 (short-term critical range). A breakout could test 98.50 or even 99.00.
- **Support**: 97.50 (50-day moving average). A drop below may target 96.38 (June low).
- **Technical Indicators**:
- **MACD**: A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, but it remains below the zero line, suggesting the current rebound may still be corrective.
- **RSI**: Near the 50 neutral zone, not yet overbought, indicating room for further upside.
#### **3. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook**
- **Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)**:
- **Bullish Scenario**: If CPI data is strong and DXY breaks above 98.20, it could challenge 98.50-99.00.
- **Bearish Scenario**: Weak CPI data or progress in trade talks may push DXY back to 97.30-96.50.
- **Long-Term (Second Half of 2025)**:
- **Structural Pressures Remain**: Despite the short-term rebound, the dollar still faces long-term challenges, including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and concerns over Fed independence.
- **Historical Trend**: After falling over 10% in the first half of 2025, DXY may continue its downtrend in the second half, though the pace of decline could slow.
#### **4. Key Risk Factors**
- **Fed Policy**: If CPI data reinforces a "higher-for-longer" rate outlook, the dollar may strengthen further. Conversely, rising rate-cut expectations could weigh on the dollar.
- **Geopolitics and Trade Talks**: Compromises from the EU or Mexico could reduce safe-haven demand, while failed negotiations may fuel further dollar gains due to risk aversion.
### **Conclusion**
The DXY is at a critical juncture, with short-term direction hinging on CPI data and trade policy developments. Technicals lean bullish, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging. Traders should closely monitor the 98.00 breakout and today’s CPI data impact.
Dollar Index Seems BullishFrom the previous week candle we see that Dollar Index has closed bullish. And in this scenario we can expect Dxy to go further higher. It has hit the previous week high and touched supply zone residing above. The two possibilities have shown in the chart are
1: After touching supply zone we expect to have deeper pullback.
2: It will have short retracement and then continues hgiher.
BTC vs DXYThe correlation between these two charts is striking. Now, both DXY and BTC have very completed patterns with BTC pretty high and DXY pretty low. Based on this chart it seems at least plausible that BTC should be topping in the next couple of months.
Water point of view, the dollar needs a small shock rise after fWater point of view, the dollar needs a small shock rise after falling too much, slow down and continue to fall............
It was pulled up to the upper boundary before, and the decline was smooth and fast. What should I do if the decline is too fast? Slow down
Continue to see the decline, the trillion-dollar debt of the United States is a big pit, depreciation will prolong life
DXY: potentially aiming for January 2025 highsAlthough we do not Trade the dollar specifically, it is a good barometer the feel out other assets.
It seems like DXY reached a MONTHLY LEVEL. I expect price to form a FVG within this rectangle on the daily level. Which will eventually create a GAP on one of the currencies. Will follow up when this happens.
IMO reversed and is going to reach the daily level quick. This will mean, POUND, EURO DOWN.
Dollar Index Analysis [DXY]Market has show upper wicks for last 3 days which is the sign that there is still sell pressure. The daily candles for this week are range bound. 4H chart is showing short term uptrend which is maintaining higher highs and higher lows. We can use this range to have scalps in this range.
possibility of uptrendThe bullish pattern is expected to advance along the specified path to the specified resistance levels. Then there is a possibility of a trend change.
If the support area is broken, the continuation of the downward trend is likely.
US dollar, Trump has done it!Since the start of 2025, the US dollar has established itself as the weakest major currency on the Forex market, falling by over 11% against a basket of major currencies. If we extend the reference period to include Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the slide even reaches 12%. This spectacular decline is no accident, but the fruit of a strategy deliberately implemented by the Trump administration. The stated aim is clear: to restore the commercial competitiveness of American companies, boost exports and restore the price advantage of products made in the USA. In this respect, the fall of the US dollar on the FX has fulfilled its mission. Can we now envisage a low point for the US dollar on the FX?
1) US dollar: the battle for currency competitiveness has been won for US companies, and this should have a positive impact on the second-quarter results of S&P 500 companies published this July
Indeed, the fall in the dollar translates directly into a much more favorable environment for exporting groups, particularly those which generate the bulk of their sales in Europe or Asia. The conversion of foreign currencies into dollars mechanically boosts revenues and margins. For many multinationals, this factor is likely to contribute to strong earnings releases in the second quarter, as the reporting period takes place this summer. Beyond the immediate impact on corporate accounts, the greenback's depreciation is also encouraging a more structural trend towards reindustrialization and support for domestic production. The effects of this dynamic can already be seen in certain manufacturing segments, which are regaining international market share. Nevertheless, this scenario is not without its downsides: a weak dollar makes imports more expensive, especially raw materials, and weighs on companies dependent on foreign inputs. On the whole, however, the exchange rate policy implemented since January represents a successful gamble by Donald Trump to boost American competitiveness.
2) Technical analysis: can we anticipate a low point for the US dollar?
The crucial question today is whether the US dollar can pull back further, or whether a technical and fundamental bottom is emerging. From a technical analysis point of view, the DXY index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies weighted 57% by the euro and 13% by the yen, remains anchored in a bearish trend. Some of the theoretical targets evoked by Elliottist analysis have been reached, but not all. However, long-term supports are visible on monthly charts: an uptrend line, particularly visible on the arithmetic scale, could act as a short-term stabilizer. Note that a potential bullish divergence is also possible on the weekly timeframe. But a bullish reversal pattern is still lacking to speak of a major low point, so let's not put the cart before the horse.
3) Scenarios and stakes for the rest of the year for the US dollar on FX
Beyond technical considerations, the persistent weakness of the US dollar acts as a revealing indicator of the tensions between trade policy and financial stability. On the one hand, a dollar under pressure is a powerful lever for supporting exports and consolidating US growth in an uncertain global context. On the other, a prolonged fall in the greenback fuels concerns about international confidence in dollar-denominated assets, and makes imports more expensive, which could rekindle inflationary pressures. This dilemma lies at the heart of the forthcoming trade-offs between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
For investors and companies exposed to Forex, several scenarios are conceivable. If the U.S. political agenda leads to a trade compromise, and if second-quarter publications confirm the robustness of the U.S. economy, the dollar is likely to find a technical floor around the supports identified on the DXY. In this scenario, a stabilization phase, or even a moderate rebound, could set in during the second half of the year. Conversely, if the trade stimulus policy is accompanied by a hardening of relations with Europe and China, or if the Fed is slow to react, the downward momentum could be prolonged.
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