dollarindex 4h forecastLooking for a further decline on the DXY, we have an impulse formation down. Projecting a wave 5 to complete below the previous low.
DXY trade ideas
DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts.
Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜
There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below.
Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video:
00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds
02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out
06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook
12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait
20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked
25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About
36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning?
👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story.
Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect.
We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore.
I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market.
Market Phases Since 1986
This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of:
🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly.
🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype.
🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers.
🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads.
If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years.
You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest.
Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps
This is where it gets juicy.
The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters.
Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests.
Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months.
There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s.
The 2025 Outlook
Here’s how I’m approaching this year:
✅ Bearish bias under 105
🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90
🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin
Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points.
If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable.
🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together
Do you see this unfolding the same way?
Do you disagree with the 80 target?
Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade!
Stay safe,
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
DXYThe US Dollar Index (DXY) remains bullish, with a strong uptrend. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows increased long positions from speculators, indicating positive sentiment towards the USD. Rising market participation supports the bullish outlook.
DXY...U.S.Doller Indes 30M time pair...IM considering a short trade on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) with a sell order at 102.900 and targets at 102.300 and 101.300. To make an informed decision, staying updated on economic data, such as inflation reports and interest rate decisions, is crucial.
Some key factors to consider when analyzing the DXY include:
- Economic indicators: Inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment data can impact the DXY.
- Interest rate decisions: Changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve can influence the DXY.
- Market sentiment: Global events, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment can affect the DXY.
To manage risk, setting a stop-loss or risk management plan is essential, especially given the DXY's potential volatility.
If you'd like insights into current DXY trends or factors affecting it, I'm here to help. What specific aspects of the trade are you looking to explore further?
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY / Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (103.300) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊."
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (101.700) Day / Scalping trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
💰💸💵DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets..., go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
DeGRAM | DXY continues to growDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel.
During the momentum corrections, the chart successfully maintained the structure and held the 50% retracement level.
We expect the upward movement in the channel to continue.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
DXY (USDX): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
DXY Bearish trend continues on SSL and Bearish ORDER BLOCKDXY is known for extreme liquidity grabs especially after Trump's tariff announcements. Until we see countries remove tariffs and companies changing factory locations DXY will still be week. A decent pullback this week?? Probably not, Next? Maybe STAY SHARP!!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly Outlook | Elliott Wave Analysis
This DXY weekly chart highlights a potential (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure unfolding after a completed 5-wave impulsive rally. Wave A bottomed out around the 100 level, followed by a retracement in Wave B which tested the 111.893 supply zone. Currently, price is reacting strongly from that level, suggesting a possible move toward completing Wave C.
Current Market Structure:
Wave B faced strong rejection near the 111.893 resistance/supply zone.
Price is now hovering near a short-term support zone (light green) around 102–100, which could serve as a decision point.
Two scenarios are in play:
1. Bullish Rejection from Support: If buyers defend the support, a new bullish leg may begin, retesting 111.893 or even pushing slightly higher.
2. Break Below Support: A decisive breakdown could initiate a deeper decline toward the major demand zone (highlighted in beige) near 90.00–92.50, completing Wave C.
Key Technical Zones:
Resistance (Supply Zone): 111.893
Immediate Support: 100.00–102.00
Major Demand Zone (Wave C Target): 90.00–92.50
Current Price: 102.892
Elliott Wave View:
The ongoing move appears to be part of a Wave C correction, which will be confirmed only if price breaks below the current support. On the flip side, a higher low and bullish continuation could mean the correction ended early, transitioning into a fresh impulse.
Conclusion:
The DXY is at a critical juncture. Traders should monitor price action closely at the 100–102 zone. A bounce could trigger a bullish setup back toward resistance, while a breakdown would likely bring Wave C to completion in the 90–92.50 zone.
Stay tuned and trade with discipline.
DXY cool offDXY has just completed its 3rd right-translated cycle, with three minuscule waves in the last daly cycle. DXY has been hugging the top of the Bollinger Bands since October. For me, this might suggest a completed leg, which could favor Bitcoin as DXY cools off
US INDEX Still Bearish From a weekly perspective... we might see DXY continuing its bearish trend. If this continues... I would be looking for buy opportunities on Gold, EU and GU
Will the DXY Hold the $109 Level Amid Bearish Patterns and CPI?The DXY is currently forming a bearish chart pattern as it awaits the release of today's CPI data. The key question remains: will the $109 support level hold firm, or is a breakdown imminent? I’d love to hear your analysis and insights on this critical matter.
DXY Breaking Down?The US Dollar Index (DXY) may be entering a strong bearish wave. After completing wave B, the market has started impulsive wave C to the downside. Currently, wave 3 might be ending, with a potential short-term bounce for wave 4, followed by a drop into wave 5.
Key Bearish Outlook:
Resistance Zone (Wave 4): 104.924 – 104.932
Invalidation Level: 106.505
Final Wave 5 Target: Near 93.422
If price stays below the invalidation level, more downside is expected. Watch for shorting opportunities if wave 4 completes and reverses.
DXY on the EdgeTrump's trade policies in Q1 have significantly influenced global markets, with critics arguing that his import tariffs are destabilizing the economic and monetary order. These measures have sparked concerns about U.S. dollar confidence, potentially leading to financial instability and broader economic consequences.
🔹 DXY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical juncture, currently hovering around 103.376—a key level that will determine the next major move.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If DXY holds above 103.376, it may push towards the 106.160 and 107.595 resistance levels.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A break below 103.376 could send DXY further down, targeting 101.805 and 100.235 as potential support zones.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 106.160, 107.595
Support: 103.376, 101.805, 100.235
⚠ Risk Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trading signal. Always confirm with your own strategy before making any trading decisions.
Dollar IndexWe are expecting Dollar index to give us reaction above he recent top, if it corrects above the Top then NFP will push it further up otherwise break it down to break the last bottom.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Watch the DXY fall to 103.205The Dollar Index will drop drastically to 103.205 Price level.. Don't hesitate to capitalize from this Bearish Move... Take advantage of this price action ... Weekly Outlook
DXY Monthly Analysis: Key Support Holding, Bullish Move Ahead?📊 DXY Monthly Chart Analysis (March 27, 2025)
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 104.267, with notable resistance ahead.
Price is consolidating within a key demand zone (~102.5–104) after rejecting higher levels.
Technical Levels:
Support Zone: 100.2–104 (Highlighted in purple)
Resistance Zone: 112.5–114.7 (Highlighted in purple)
Major Resistance: 114.77 (Previous high, acting as a supply zone)
200-MA Support: Located below current price, offering a long-term bullish confluence.
Market Structure:
Price remains in a higher time-frame bullish trend but is experiencing a correction.
The "BOSS" level (Break of Structure) suggests a prior bullish breakout.
If the demand zone holds, a bullish continuation towards 112.5–114.7 is possible.
Projected Move:
A bounce from 102–104 could trigger a rally toward the upper resistance zone (~112.5).
A break below 100.2 could indicate a shift in trend and further downside.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a critical decision point. Holding the current support zone (~102–104) could fuel a bullish continuation toward 112–114, while a breakdown below 100.2 would weaken bullish momentum.
DXY - How Instant Gratification Kills & Patience Pays Earlier in the month I shared a trading idea on the DXY looking at potential buying opportunities based on a Bullish Cypher & test of structure.
There was some negative feedback from that original idea, simply because the trade didn't reverse "right away" - Today, I'm going to update you on this idea as well as share with you some thoughts on how instant gratification can ruin traders and how patience literally pays off when it comes to trading.
If you have any questions and comments, please leave them below and I think the podcast episode that I'm referring to in the video was episode 1131 "How To Avoid Panic and Protect Profits" - Not 100% sure about that though.
Akil
US DOLLAR UPDATE4H demand zone was reached, and price initially reacted strongly with a bullish close. However, buyers lacked momentum, and with fundamentals like Friday’s UoM data coming in lower than forecast, confidence in the economy weakened, leading to a drop.
From a technical standpoint, price will seek lower demand, but for shorts to be confirmed, the invalidation point must be broken, not just spiked. Let’s wait and see how the market unfolds.
Blessings,
T
DXY LONG/BUYBy utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, historical patterns, , we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bullish sentiment prevails.
Dollar Bullish To $118?!During the last market analysis I said I remain bullish on the DXY for the upcoming future & that bias still remains the same. After the strong bullish rally from October - December 2024, The Dollar started off this year with an ease off, seeing prices drop for the first quarter of 2025. However, this cool off has not changed the long term perspective for the Dollar as we still remain bullish. This correction (sell off) this quarter was simply a dip.
The Dollar has completed its Wave D consolidation phase & is now getting ready for further upside towards Wave E. Wave E being priced around $116 - $118.
Dollar Index 4hr analysisContinuing our scenario analysis and forecast on the weekly and daily timeframes, here are the reasons for which we believe that at the moment the most likely scenario to play out is scenario 1 (dollar strength), from now on or soon:
1. the flat most likely to play out in the daily is a regular flat (dark blue) because the flat inside it (light blue) is the one that looks most proper, or "ideal", as it has a perfect correction inside it to mark the b wave (marked by a circle, both on the chart and on the macd).
2. the contracting flat that you can see in part 2 of our daily analysis, is a terrible looking correction because even it it were a contracting flat, still the b wave inside it should be the most corrective piece, and it isn't.
3. there is growing divergence on the way down in this last move down on the 4hr, which indicates a potential turn.
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