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U.S. Dollar Index

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DOLLAR DXYImpact of Tomorrow's Data on DXY and USD Trade Directional Bias The upcoming data releases, including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and speeches by FOMC members, can significantly influence DXY and DXYtrade directional bias. Here's how these data points might impact the markets: Data Releases: Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.5% Impact: Lower-than-expected earnings growth could suggest a slowing economy, potentially weakening the USD. Conversely, higher earnings could support the USD by indicating wage inflation and potentially leading to higher interest rates. Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecast: 159,000 Previous: 143,000 Impact: A stronger-than-expected jobs report could boost the USD by indicating economic resilience. A weaker report might lead to a decline in the USD as it could signal economic slowdown. Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.0% Previous: 4.0% Impact: No change in the unemployment rate is expected, but any deviation could influence market expectations of future monetary policy. FOMC Member Speeches: Impact: Comments from FOMC members can provide insights into future monetary policy decisions, influencing market expectations and potentially impacting the USD. Consumer Credit m/m: Forecast: $15.6 billion Previous: $40.8 billion Impact: A significant change in consumer credit could reflect consumer spending trends and economic health, potentially influencing the USD. Departments Responsible for Data Releases: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Responsible for releasing employment data, including Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Federal Reserve: FOMC members' speeches are part of the Federal Reserve's communication strategy. Federal Reserve: Also responsible for Consumer Credit data. BLS: Average Hourly Earnings data is also released by the BLS. Impact on EUR/USD: Strong US Data: If the employment data and earnings growth are stronger than expected, it could lead to a stronger USD, potentially weakening AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD,USDZAR,USDCAD,EURUSD Weak US Data: Conversely, weaker-than-expected data might lead to a decline in the USD, supporting EUR/USD,AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD, Trading Strategy: Short EUR/USD.AUDUSD,GBPUSD ,: If US data is strong and FOMC members signal a hawkish stance, Long EUR/USD,AUDUSD EURUSD: If US data is weak .
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Will Grow! Long! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 17h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.192. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 106.217 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar Index - End of February Analysis- Below the opening price of the 3-month bullish order block, a monthly BISI @ 104.636 – 105.420 presents itself - Failed to see last months high taken out all whilst trading into the 6-month SIBI. Last months lows has been taken although price closed inside the previous. months range - Studying a draw to February's low @ 106.126 as the 1st point of interest - Monthly candle body closure above the midpoint of Februarys high and open will negate this idea.
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
Restrictive monetary policy?We are still in an uptrend at dxy. This trend could continue if Trump follows through on tariffs for a number of reasons. First, tariffs could rekindle inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, which could cause the dollar to strengthen. Secondly, tariffs could cause economic weakness in other countries, improving America’s relative strength, creating higher demand for the currency. However, tariffs run the risk of dampening the U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar. While Trump’s position on the dollar is contradictory—he wants it to maintain its dominance but advocates for competitive weakening to boost U.S. exports—all eyes will be watching if tariffs serve as bargain chips or materialize into new sweeping policies. During President Trump's first term in office, we felt the sequencing of tax cuts (late 2017) and then tariffs (March 2018-August 2019) were key reasons for a strengthening dollar. In other words, the US economy had some fiscal support before tariff wars were waged. Market participants expect the imposition of bulky tariffs would lead to a global trade war. Such a scenario will be inflationary for the US economy, which would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer.
TVC:DXY
by TRADINGACPVIP
Will the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report Be Optimistic?At 8:30 AM EST today, the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be released, offering key insights into the U.S. labor market. This report will cover Average Hourly Earnings, Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, helping investors and policymakers assess the economy’s current state. Let’s break down the expectations and potential impacts. What to Expect from the NFP Report? The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs in February 2025, improving from January’s 143,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, signaling stability in the job market. However, wage growth is expected to slow, rising 0.3% month-over-month, compared to January’s 0.5%, the highest since August 2024. On an annual basis, wage growth is forecasted to hold at 4.1%. Despite these stable projections, economic uncertainty is increasing. The election initially brought optimism among investors and major corporations, with hopes that the new government would introduce tax cuts, balance inflation with policy rates, and create an environment conducive to business expansion and job growth. However, the current situation presents a different picture. Unpredictable tariffs, frequent policy shifts, and regulatory scrutiny on functioning organizations are shaking investor confidence. The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline as uncertainty continues to grow. Trade Policies and Market Uncertainty Concerns over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are adding to economic instability, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar since the new president officially took office on January 20. Investors are growing wary, as shifting policies create an unpredictable business environment. A recent decision to temporarily exempt Canadian and Mexican goods under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) from newly imposed 25% tariffs has added another layer of uncertainty. These tariffs, which took effect earlier this week, are raising concerns about their potential impact on economic growth and global trade. Looking Ahead The NFP report will play a crucial role in determining market sentiment and economic direction. Investors, businesses, and policymakers will closely analyze the data to assess the labor market’s strength and the broader economic outlook. With ongoing policy changes and global trade uncertainties, all eyes are on how employment trends unfold and how businesses navigate the shifting economic landscape. Stay tuned for further updates as the data is released.
TVC:DXY
by AfaqKhan111
Dollar Index - We Are Seeing Heaviness To The DownsideIt is important to note that although we have recently seen huge decline in the dollar, there is still a possibility for a minor relief rally into the monthly BISI which is now a inverted FVG @ 104.636 - 104.420 which could seek out small movements to the downside for GBPUSD and EURUSD. Fully aware that dollar can continue to present risk on conditions, taking out 103.373 lows and making its way into the longer term monthly bias of the 101.917 - 103.373 FVG.
TVC:DXYLong
by LegendSince
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings. 📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY. Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars. 💰 Money Supply Contraction Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar. 📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar. Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down. in my opinion the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength. If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession. Like Comment Follow Tip Gift its appreciated for more serious work like this.
TVC:DXYShort
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
DXY filling gaps downward - expect correction soonLooks like the dollar is filling GAPs as the chart shows. Last 2 are at 102.826 and 101.601. Follow Fibs for areas of reaction where we may get a correction.(yes fibs go beyond 1.618) Look for the correction very soon, if we have one, to go as high as 105.5-ish. It should NOT correct higher than that if we are going much lower...according to Elliott Wave I'm assuming we are in the 3rd wave. Watch for the trend(price) to move toward the blue line as an area/direction while it's correcting.
TVC:DXYShort
by rabbitinvestmentsstrategies
ECB rate cut and NFPs await the DXYThe DXY dropped to fresh yearly lows at 106.13 since my previous idea which does not bode well for my string of ideas calling for the DXY to break above 110.16. The DXY however managed to climb back above the blue support range between 107.12 and 107.50 at the back end of last week off the back of a stronger than expected durable goods orders m-o-m print of 3.1% while the 4Q2024 GDP print and the m-o-m Core PCE price index landed in line with expectations at 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively. The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will allow it to re-test the 50-day MA at 107.98. Most of the focus will however be on the US non-farm payroll print for February. The NFPs print for January came in slightly lower than expected and another weak print on Friday will have investors question the validity of Powell’s statement that the US economy is strong and that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, which I expect will be dollar negative. A strong print however will allow the DXY to hold levels above the 50-day MA and test levels closer to the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 108.97.
TVC:DXYLong
by Goose96