US Dollar Index Technical AnalysisSell Stop Sweep, Support, Trend-line break ...
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DXY trade ideas
DXYMonthly structure indicating bullish momentum till M patten neckline retest to conclude strong bullish momentum and also H4 concluding the same movement so bullish momentum expected.
Bullish Setup: DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)🟢 Entry Zone: 104.10 – 104.30
🔴 Stop Loss: 102.90 (below the key demand zone)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
✅TP1: 105.00 (initial resistance, suitable for partials)
✅TP2: 106.00 (recent structure high)
✅TP3: 107.50 (extended target on sustained momentum)
🔍 Technical Context:
• Strong reaction from the 103.00–103.50 demand zone, which has acted as major support since November
• Bullish MACD crossover underway, with histogram flipping positive — early trend reversal signal
• RSI recovering from oversold territory, suggesting renewed bullish momentum
• Price retesting and reclaiming the 9 EMA — a common trigger level for trend shifts
• Potential higher low formation after a sharp corrective wave — signaling strength building under the surface
A daily close above 104.30 would confirm the breakout and open the door for a push toward the 106–107.50 zone.
Bullish week forecast on DXYWeekly chart hit a HTF liquidity and showed a change of state in delivery on daily chart. 4h chart showing bullish institutional order flow
$DXY IdeiaFor the DXY, we expect the week to remain bullish, driven by the ongoing correction after a significant price drop. Our expectation is that the upward movement will extend to the weekly key level premium.
This bullish outlook is reinforced by several factors. First, we observed a bottom SMT with GU, followed by a market structure break on the daily chart. Additionally, the H4 timeframe has shown continuation purges, where lows are rejected, indicating buying strength. Finally, we identified a bearish SMT in bond yields, providing a strong indication that we are following the correct direction.
DXY March 23 week aheadDXY
March 23 week ahead
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session Premium and Premium on the daily range
News Monday 9:45
When Price lowered into the Monthly SIBI from sept 2024 for the second week but and then rallied for higher prices, I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI.
Wait and see what Sunday does. However if we see lower prices beginning of the week we could see Price rally to the buy side target and rebalance March 6 daily SIBI be the target for higher prices.
DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis DXY
March 23 Weekly Analysis
In hindsight it gets easier to see. Reading from the 4 hour chart I can see from March 5 price sold off to then consolidate on the 50, sells off early the next week making the low on Tuesday then rallies to engineer equal highs and closes at the 50. This past week Price come just below the 50 off consolidation again sells off early in the week making the low on Tuesday and hit deep discount and rallies closing this week in a Premium.
*Note the magnet that the event horizon played this past week-learning it value.
*Note price came down to below .70 on the parent range and wicked into the Monthly BISI from oct 2024
*Note that Price came to the .70 of the daily range and came through to the .618 creating equal lows. Daily chart
*Note price 3 week narrowed range I pointed out earlier this week
*Note Price was in a discount until Thursday coming through to a premium on the hourly chart
Beginning the week consolidating on the 50, taking sell stops and creating equal lows to close. Price lowers to take sell stops and creates equal lows on Tuesday in a deep discount. Wednesday Price launches to the 50 level taking Friday/Mondays equal highs. Sells off back into a discount. Thursday rallies to just take equal highs created from March 10. Retracement to the 50 level and upper quadrant of the FVG Thursday created. Friday rallies to barely take the buy side, then wicks down to the same FVG quadrant level creating equal lows and rallies higher again taking Thursdays buy stops and creates equal highs.
DXY Update – Two Possible Scenarios! 📢 DXY Update – Two Possible Scenarios! 📢
1️⃣ Bearish Scenario: Looking for sell from the Bearish OB 🎯
2️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If price doesn’t reach the Bearish OB, we shift focus to the Bullish OB for a potential buy ✅
📌 Waiting for price to approach key zones & using confirmations for entry!
📊 Stay updated with our latest analysis – Follow our TradingView page! 🚀
Bullish dollar next week?Based on the positive fundamentals for the dollar I’m expecting short term higher prices closing march
Dollar is ready to ripUSDXY is basically carvingh out its bottom and is ready to rip to the next levelso im looking to long AMEX:UUP from here
Weekly FOREX Forecast Mar 17-21: Buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD vs USD!This is an outlook for the week of March 17-21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
The USD Index is entering a Daily +FVG, which is nested in a Weekly +FVG. This is a bearish indication for the USD, which is a potential bullish situation for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. This will be potentially bearish for the USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. Wait for the market structure shift going in the direction of your TP, and enter on the pullback.
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DXY: trading range 4HThe DXY is moving within a trading range on the 4H chart. We can sell at the top around 103.80 and buy at the bottom of the range around 102.80.
However, we anticipate an upward breakout (in the direction of the trend on the longer timeframes). Therefore, we can either buy at the bottom of the range or wait for a bullish breakout and a pullback to position ourselves for a buy. Our target would then be 105.45.
DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week
Department Responsible:
US PMIs: S&P Global.
Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept
Key Events and Data Releases
S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24)
Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7).
Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0).
Impact:
Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity.
Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise.
Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2)
Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports.
Impact:
Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑).
Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓).
Fed Speeches
FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓.
DXY Technical Outlook
Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst
Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation
Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation
Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm
Fed’s Data Dependency:
The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility.
Bearish Momentum:
DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84
Trump Policies:
Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation).
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum
Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100
Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts.
Volatility Triggers:
April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation.
Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction.
the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
FVG The priority FVG IS Near the 1.06-1.07 and the DXY IS IN A W PATTERN WHICH IA USUALLY BULLISH, SO WHAT I THINK THE DXY WILL HIT AROUND 1.06+ before being rejected to the downside, as history can and will repeat itself with the trump presidency. Although I've heard people say will go to the 1.22 range but that seems a little far fetched, anything is possible but it seems more likely for price to do a hard rally and then be rejected to the downside, but I'm a complete noob so take this as a grain of salt
Dollar Index - Will Rate Hikes Cause Risk Off Conditions?It’s been a risk off environment over the last few weeks and because of this, we have seen the appreciation of GBPUSD and EURUSD which was called weeks in advance.
With a massive imbalance above and daily sellside liquidity taken, the question is will Dollar Index fill the daily SIBI before the rate announcements happen?
If this happens, it will be a classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ scenario.
Next week will be very volition due to the news events being released and this could be the catalyst for price to expand into the local SIBI outlined on the daily timeframe.
DXY in daily charts (update) Hello my friends
There is not any thing more to add to my last idea of DXY. It is not confirmed yet but please keep it in your mind.
Thanks
dxy buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
Big DXY Rally Might be StartingI'll start this by going over the case for the DXY rally broadly and then dial into the reasons why this seems like the optimal level to look for it starting.
Working left to right.
The 2021 Breakout
A very sharp rally happened in 2021 in the USD. It was one of the most impressive things seen in the USD for decades. DXY had downtrended for a long time. Ranged for a long time. The rallies in this were weak (See extreme left for example) and then suddenly this hyper trending move came breaking some important levels and the general dull mood of DXY price action.
It put in that nice strong rally and then it had a bit of a head fake high - which could have been the completion of the first bullish impulse wave.
If that hypothesis is true, at some point the most might of USD rallies is coming. The question would be how deep is the correction.
That could end around where we are and it's possible there could be a flash crash in the DXY to retrace the 2021 rally. In the event we'd have that sort of thing, I think when the pending harmonic signal was forming - we'd have seen a move lower to complete the M shape.
Harmonics are reversal patterns and for a while all I traded was harmonics (Was a great idea in a range, got me nailed against a trend). I've found when there's a clear looking harmonic setup and you place a limit order for it, in the times it doesn't fill fairly soon - it's likely it will not fill at all. Price can go an extended period in the other direction.
So while DXY bulls would have to be aware of the risk a valid correction could still flash crash from these levels, this is a good spot to be looking to see it there are clear signs of trend formation.
The first obvious sign of that would be the 76 retracement, which is where we are close to now.
Looking more at the entry now.
DXY is an index of currency pairs traded against the USD. This index is very heavily weighted towards the EURUSD. DXY is essentially EURUSD inverted- at least most of the time. DXY has been crashing lately mainly due to the parabolic rallies in EURUSD - but this is now at the 76 retracement level.
Looking closer at this we can see the 76 rejection and now we're at the 61 fib. If this breaks, this can be an early sign of uptrend failure. If the 61 isnt support we usually trade the 50 fib and if that's not support a lot of the time we're seeing the turning of the trend.
When it comes to betting on the DXY the more practical thing to do is to trade EURUSD. If you have access to Forex markets you'll get better costs and liquidity trading EURUSD short as a proxy for DXY long.
If EURUSD makes the breaks of the next couple levels then it's likely to capitulate to the low of the last leg.
That would express itself in a big recovery for DXY. It could even be the start of that big new trend leg.
This would give early targets on DXY around 122 and probably thinking it's getting a bit overdone around 126.
Which would be a hell of a USD rally.
Here's a good way to think about it. IF the thesis 2021 was a bullish wave 1 is correct, then it has to be true that the following wave 3 will be more impressive than wave 1. Has to be true. Otherwise that was not a valid wave 1 and wave 3. So I'm not saying we can know the wave 3 has to come, but we can know if it came it'd predict strong uptrend to 122 in DXY.
Massive EURUSD crash about to start.
$DXY is pulling back to a strong support zoneTVC:DXY is reaching a strong support zone and a pullback could end here of continue to 100. Key support level is being tested.
DXY aka USD suspicious leading diagonalif price confirms it is a leading diagonal, we will see a corrective move down before another spike higher.
Am eagerly waiting for the confirmation to load up positions in eurusd gpb aud etc as DXY will show the way, it moves up mean USD bullish and hence eurusd gbpusd etc moves down.
Good luck.
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DXY, bullish or bearish?Welcome back!
Today i'm posting a small idea on the DXY. Usually i cover crypto but the macro is important. A weak dollar correlates with more risk being taken and a strong dollar with less risk being taken. Hence my analysis of the DXY.
In the above chart a couple of things can be seen which makes the outlook hard to predict.
On one side there is a bullflag on the monthly timeframe with a target of 130!
On the other side, looking under we can see a bearish MACD cross and a bearish stoch RSI. On average it takes half a year to a year for a cross like this to recover.
This causes me to be bearish on the dollar and bullish on risk-on assets.
Thanks for reading
