EUR Index , bottom is near byEuro Index last wave in a year long down side B wave of Running flat
Soon we will enter C wave heading upside to correct part of the whole downside move
EXY trade ideas
AGE OF CURRENCY WAR
The entire industrialized world is engaged in a form of economic warfare known as inflation.
The idea being that if you can make your currency less valuable it makes your export more attractive for the foreign nations than if your currency was more expensive. So this has to do with fluctuations in currency prices. What you can buy stuff for in your country versus what you can buy stuff for in my country.
The more inflation we cause, the more attractive our exports become to other countries.
If you managed to destroy your economy through regulations, through taxation, through bad management and bad government and you don't really know how to create economic growth to pay for all the special welfare programs like UBI. If you don't have a way to do that through an actual growth, because you hamstrung your economy, how can you get more growth???
The way they do it is through currency inflation. So every industrialized nation in the world has figured this out. Now they all fighting a battle to make their currency as cheap as possible so their exports could be more attractive.
How to create inflation?
Well they reduce interest rates, making bonds less expensive, and then they end up issuing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. They put money into circulation and they incentivize consumption.
They put extra trillions of dollars into circulation because they know people will spend each penny every single year. It is gonna create a lot of inflation.
They go further. What we see now is governments reducing its interest rates to negative.So if interest rates are negative it is no more reasonable to save money because it is costing you money to just put them in the bank.
If saving money costs you, so you should spend your money as fast as you can and that is what these countries are doing. They are offering things like: negative interest rates on the mortgage to buy a house in Scandic nations. They are trying to stimulate a massive amount of consumption to pay you so you consume.
In the beginning, it sounds like a great idea to you because you can purchase a 100000 home for 95000 by the time you done paying it because you have a negative interest rate.
Over the long term though this is going to destroy an economy because it denies a very simple truth about the time value of money, about the way economics works. If they are manipulating the system for short term benefits it will end up crashing us.
If interest rate is a price of money just think about it: if someone is paying you to take money from them, what does it tell you about future value of this money???
I will stop here.
I will be happy to know your thoughts on a current situation. Feel free to share in a comment section.
AGE OF CURRENCY WAR
The entire industrialized world is engaged in a form of economic warfare known as inflation .
The idea being that if you can make your currency less valuable it makes your export more attractive for the foreign nations than if your currency was more expensive. So this has to do with fluctuations in currency prices. What you can buy stuff for in your country versus what you can buy stuff for in my country.
The more inflation we cause, the more attractive our exports become to other countries.
If you managed to destroy your economy through regulations, through taxation, through bad management and bad government and you don't really know how to create economic growth to pay for all the special welfare programs like UBI . If you don't have a way to do that through an actual growth, because you hamstrung your economy, how can you get more growth???
The way they do it is through currency inflation . So every industrialized nation in the world has figured this out. Now they all fighting a battle to make their currency as cheap as possible so their exports could be more attractive.
How to create inflation?
Well they reduce interest rates, making bonds less expensive, and then they end up issuing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. They put money into circulation and they incentivize consumption.
They put extra trillions of dollars into circulation because they know people will spend each penny every single year. It is gonna create a lot of inflation .
They go further. What we see now is governments reducing its interest rates to negative.So if interest rates are negative it is no more reasonable to save money because it is costing you money to just put them in the bank.
If saving money costs you, so you should spend your money as fast as you can and that is what these countries are doing. They are offering things like: negative interest rates on the mortgage to buy a house in Scandic nations. They are trying to stimulate a massive amount of consumption to pay you so you consume.
In the beginning, it sounds like a great idea to you because you can purchase a 100000 home for 95000 by the time you done paying it because you have a negative interest rate.
Over the long term though this is going to destroy an economy because it denies a very simple truth about the time value of money, about the way economics works. If they are manipulating the system for short term benefits it will end up crashing us.
If interest rate is a price of money just think about it: if someone is paying you to take money from them, what does it tell you about future value of this money???
I will stop here.
I will be happy to know your thoughts on a current situation. Feel free to share in a comment section.
My idea about EXYIf we watch the monthly chart we can see Euro currency index is in a strong downtrend since the Great Recession.
The price now arrived to a support zone which is the 100. In my opinion it's a psychological support/resistance level, cause 100 is a whole number. At this point the price can go upward to the downtrend line, which location is at Fibonacci's 23,6% support/resistance. On the monthly chart we can see when the price arrived to a support zone and start going upward, its gone on the same formation(I marked on the charts). If this formation will repeats, the price will going up to Fibonacci's 38.2% resistance and fall down to 23,6%, then going up to the monthly downtrend line.
EURO INDEX TIMING PREDICTIONNext 2 potential turns in euro index:
03/09/2019 - 13/09/2019
Watch the trend between 2 timing
points to decide in which direction
the market will turn on the next timing
LONG EXYShort term long to match DXY short, although long term decay will occur due to weakness in both DXY & EXY. Possible long term EXY short.
EXY Update - same direction as previous post but a simple adjustment in the final bearish impulse wave
EUR WEAKNESS TO COME (EXY monthly view)Hi All,
We have been trading the EURUSD all year with a strong bias towards the downside.
Looking at the monthly "EXY" Euro currency index we can clearly see a strong momentum building to the downside (falling wedge cycle).
Observing the latest economic climate highlights the worsening slump within the EU bloc. With the ongoing Brexit and Germany looking towards a recession and with key EU zones weakening we can only see further weakness in the EU looming.
EXY: How far down?
EXY is one of the most important indexes which had been investigated as parallel key in EURUSD or other pairs. As it can be seen at graph, there is three important scenario based on three important historical resistance! Regardless of that, It seems this parameter fallen in to one of the resistence. Elliot wave behavior and Price action phenomenon, say to us, C leg can be formed after a lot of increasing in MACD. If that happens, we shall expected this behavior:
****increasing in EURUSD + collision to high resistence+decreasing in EURUSD.
Thank you.
Euro index #EXY #ECX #EURX - bullish on 1M TFEuro index EXY is bullish on 1M TF according to momentum indicators.
EXY looks also bullish on 1D TF, but bearish on 1W TF.
In September I expect bottom formation and a bullish cross forming on MACD and WaveTrend oscillator.
%K line (blue) of StochRSI has already crossed above %D (red) which means that a buying signal has been generated on 1M TF.
StochRSI %D will move above 20 and more bullish momentum will build up which will start the next bullish cycle in EXY which could bring it to the next swing high to about €121 - 117 somewhere between Nov 2020 - May 2021.
If there is enough strength from the bulls this will lead to falling prices in commodities like oil, gold and silver (measured in EUR).
Commodities will start to raise again after mid of 2021 when EXY losses its strength again.
This should be considered in technical analysis of commodities.
