GOLDSILVER trade ideas
GOLD/SILVER RATIO UPDATEThanks for viewing,
Initially posted in 2019.
I was a buyer of silver bullion since silver crossed the 80 mark. That included adding significantly to the holdings during the steep drop earlier in the year.
It hasn't always been a comfortable trade, but it has worked out rather well to date.
What I expect next is, despite continuing tail-winds for bullion, the G/S ratio will head back towards the 50 line of the RSI/MACD. So both gold and silver will continue to gain as the money printing / negative nominal and real yields on bonds / geopolitical uncertainty / record-breaking government deficits / shortages of physical bullion etc environment continues (I expect at least 4 out of these 5 conditions to continue for at least 5 - 10 years). Silver will continue to gain at about a 2:1 ratio to gold despite overall % gains slowing down somewhat for a time (smaller, less liquid market). So the G/S ratio will level-off for a while before head further down - I HOPE to 45 or below - at which point I will sell silver and purchase (more) gold.
Silver is a swing trade only as a way to gain more physical gold. I have actually bought my first silver ETF this week (my silver holdings are less than 1% ETF and gold is 0% ETF). Sorry I digress, I a strong aversion of bullion ETFs and would be very uncomfortable with any significant portion of my bullion allocation being in ETF form - if you don't hold it in your hand, it isn't yours). Gold isn't a trade and I would be unlikely to ever willingly part with it and will probably continue to add to holdings (even at much higher prices) for a very long time. Gold is unsurance, money par excellence, and the best way to hedge holding a weak base currency.
If it all works out I will end up with well over twice (by weight) the amount of gold (almost 3:1 for some purchases earlier in 2020), as compared to the amount of gold I could have bought at the time I purchased the silver. I'm just using silver as leverage against gold. Medium term, an $80+ price is on the cards (yes I know that sounds rather speculative right now) and at a 1/45 ratio that would imply a gold price of only $3,600 an ounce. Remember both BofA and Goldman expect a $3000+ gold price before the end of 2021, so my trade could realistically be completed in 2021-22 (I set a 2-5 year time horizon on this trade in 2019). On a bit longer 5+ year time horizon, $5000/oz gold is more likely than not at the moment. Of course, that implies a significantly weaker USD - but we are already starting that journey as well.
Protect those funds (and your bullion).
120:1 GSR... History is made.A few months ago a ounce of gold cost 120 ounces of silver.
The roman empire set this ratio at 12:1 Whilst the US government set it at 15:1
The people that managed to buy silver at 120:1 probably bought the most undervalued asset in the history of mankind.
Gold and Silver are treasures more valuable than human lives, this was the popular sentiment in Europe, Africa and Asia for thousands of years. It is only in recent decades that the human population has become so dumbed down that people would rather pick a chocolate bar over a 10 ounce bar of silver.
Silver is still massively undervalued in relation to gold. And Gold is massively undervalued in relation to it's historical role as world money.
Silver in my opinion is probably the trade of the century.
Gold/Silver Ratio - Serious, Silver, Spike Following on from my Gold & Silver analysis I'm finishing up with some analysis on the Gold/Silver ratio. Expecting another silver spike to correspond with the 5 wave in both Gold & Silver. Since the start of the metals rally back 2018 my motto has been buy Gold on pullbacks and buy Silver on momentum. Then close out both at the end of a significant move. Keep in mind Fed Chair, Jay Powell is speaking on Thursday and is likely double down on his commitment to greater than 2% inflation until employment targets are met. We can definitely expect some short term volatility coming soon (In both directions due to the Dollar most probably liking the policy *Strangely enough*).
Silver will continue to outperform Gold Hi Guys
I bring you here the gold/silver ratio, we played this game beautifully selling Gold for silver at 118:1. It is currently 72:1.
In the short term I can see it testing 82:1, but as you can see here it had broken the 200 Week moving average about 3.5 weeks ago.
Previously the Ratio was below the 200WMA for 128, 202, 14 weeks respectively. With the biggest drop of 47% from OCT 10 - April 11
Since we hit record highs of 126:1 I expect the closeness of the Ratio to be closer, Making Silver Still an acceptation Buy
Use this ratio to forecast gold & silver movesThis ratio will help you to forecast XauUsd & XagUsd. When you forecast gold and silver next moves also use this ratio as an indicator. Currently this ratio is bearish, but expect some correction soon. Bearish ratio means XauUsd has more weakness than XagUsd, and vice versa.
Gold Should Outperform Silver in Near Term.The Gold/Silver Ratio decline appears to be nearing the end of its historical drop. The ratio is on its fifth wave extension, it's entering a convergence zone, and RSI shows oversold. At a silver price of $31 and gold price of $2125, the ratio should reach its terminus. I am still bullish silver in the short term, but I think it will be gold that really takes off. On the medium and long time frames, I think that either metal could outperform the other.
The Gold/Silver complex has caught renewed bids this weekShow Me the Money! 23 July, 2020, by Vladimir Rojankovski, Senior Analyst, Grand Capital
The Gold/Silver complex has caught renewed bids this week, which was tipped off by the major gold ETF – SPDR Gold Trust – showing up on the "Doji Week" scan back on Monday. The Doji Week scan is designed to find stocks that are in narrow ranges compared to prior week's activity that is geared up for a stronger directional move.
There are a number of Gold/Silver - related ETFs and stocks appearing on the Wide Range Breakouts, Power Up, and Overbought results today as the market gets behind their momentum against a sliding US Dollar. As investors’ classics – Barrick Gold (GLD) and Newmont Corp. (NEM) – look increasingly overvalued by both investment multiples and technically, new kids on the block, such as Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Kinross Gold (KGC) look increasingly promising. The two latter stocks unveil single digit price-to-sales ratios as opposed to double-digit ones for Barrick and Newmont.
