Most Bullish Chart for Silver70:1 GOLD/SILVER ratio is the average ratio when silver is treated as an industrial metal. However, if you believer Silver will be receiving monetary investment demand, like Gold has been, then 70:1 may become the neckline for a much more aggressive silver price and a ratio closer to 20:1 in Silver's favor.
That means if Gold hits $3,000 an ounce like Bank of America forecasts, then Silver should hit $150 an ounce with a 20:1 gold/silver ratio.
GOLDSILVER trade ideas
The ratio has reached the line of support.We took the profits from our short position in the ratio, as well as the profits from the silver long position. For now I expect to see some sideways trading and the ratio could pullback towards the 93-94 area. I don't see a reason to go long in this case, however it is an opportunity. If you wish to take the long position in the ratio - bear in mind the fact that the silver market is very strong and the trend could easily be broken without retracing back towards the 93-94 area. To monitor this - close out the long below 87.5 and enter a short position again targeting 81.5. I will make another update as soon as I see some movement.
Gold/Silver Ratio Is FlaggingWhen the gold/silver ratio is high, gold is relatively more expensive than silver, by historical standards. Some people use this ratio to trade between the metals.
For a very long-term investor, the trade works like this: when the ratio is high, buy silver, and wait for the ratio to revert towards its mean. Then, sell the silver and buy gold at a better relative price and wait for the ratio to rise.
Using this oscillation you can accumulate precious metal using nothing but the mean reversion between the two metals.
Now, that said, the 19th century average gold/silver ratio, I believe, is around 47. By those standards, the ratio is extremely high right now. On the other hand, the rise has occurred in a very steady long-term rising trend channel that began during the Great Financial Crisis.
Long-term chart:
It seems to spend ages along one side of the channel before moving to the other and inhabiting that region for quite some time.
The question I cannot answer is: will the historical mean be revisited any time soon, or is the inflated ratio somehow a byproduct of unprecedented central bank intervention?
That said, I will add a couple of comments regarding the short-term picture. During the crash the ratio mooned, breaking out of the channel for the first time in geologic eons, and has since worked its way back in. The process of reentry looks to be taking the form of easily identifiable flagging, and that last flag looks to be breaking.
How would one trade this, if they were so inclined? I if they thought we were heading to the lower bound of the channel, one would buy silver now, and then if we find the bottom of that channel, perhaps swap it for gold, since the channel is gradually rising. That's just a guess. We live in unprecedented times and these assets might become quite volatile in the coming weeks and months.
If one believes we will ever revisit the ratio's very long-term mean in the 40s, they would only hold silver until it does. I have no idea if that will happen.
Gold/Silver ratio on its way to 88.The chart suggests that the correction will continue untill it reaches its long-term support running from 2011. It is quite logical that this will follow after the washout experienced by precious metals in March causing this anomaly when silver lost about 50% of its value in terms of gold. I am expecting the ratio to be equal to 88 by early July. This implies a bullish market for gold and silver, where XAGUSD will outperform. Lookout for updates regarding silver, we will see some interesting price targets and nice trading opportunities.
GOLD/SILVER ratio in the Subprime and COVID crisesI don't know how many of you speculate on the Gold/ Silver ratio but I do. And I have come across an interesting pattern in 2008 during the Subprime Mortgage Crises that may be repeated now during the COVID crisis.
As you see on the chart, the LMACD is the key indicator on it, and it has topped at 0.069. At the same time the price action is very similar with 2008 as the March spike got sold aggressively and is declining towards the 1M MA20 and MA50. A break below may lead to a 2008-like -60% drop in total.
Do you think a potential upcoming global recession can repeat this pattern?
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SILVER OUTPERFORMS in last 2 monthsThanks for viewing.
This is a wee update on an older post. What has changed recently?
- I amended my label for the upper range from "sell gold and buy silver" to "hold gold and buy silver" for a couple of reasons; 1. I hold gold mainly as a hedge against local currency and USD devaluation generally and also increasingly in light of increasingly obviously un-serviceable levels of sovereign debt / quantitative easing that started September 2019. Also 2. Because now that I have some gold, I will be unlikely to part with it just because its price is up in fiat currency terms. You don't cancel your insurance policy when times are good, neither will I sell my gold for a fiat profit. 3. These things are really hard to time and the most important factor; general loss of faith in paper assets will likely result in a significant re-pricing of gold (and silver) to much higher levels (I likely won't sell either if gold goes up 200- 400% but will reduce or stop regular purchases). While I am a big believer in silver, as borne out over the past 2 months (although there was a spike in premiums while the silver futures price dipped - which made 'buying the dip' difficult) I do not want to be a long-term holder of silver - given how volatile it is and the greater storage costs. So, silver I will sell when the G/S ratio hits some key levels.
- The economies throughout the world are in significant turmoil, a lot of mines are shuttered still (the North and South American silver miners seem in for a long-haul). Seeing as silver is primarily an industrial metal, I have been impressed with is relative performance of late. It seems that silver demand has been brought forward and is, at least, counter-acting what may be lower industrial demand. As gold hangs out between USD1650-1750 it is quite possible that a significant portion of investment demand has turned away from gold and towards silver as people may "see" more upside for silver as well as possibly more value for money.
Protect those funds everyone
Precious Metal Rally to Continue - SilverI'm looking for the ongoing precious metal rally to take Silver to the $19.75 level, above where we can expect some resistance and possible shorting opportunities. The midpoint for this setup is circled, a clear breakout point.
In addition, there is a supporting setup in the gold/silver ratio chart which may validate the case I'm making for the silver rally...
Look for the ratio to bottom below the 94.24 level. The midpoint here is also a clear breakdown point.
If the two levels mentioned above are reached around the same time, the reversal case will be that much more compelling.
