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Hang Seng Index

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JICPT| Tighten regulation triggered big Chinese stock sell-offWhat a bloody day for Chinese mainland stock market and HK stock market . The tech stocks, such as Tencent and BABA tumbled by more than 7%. Even value investor favored blue chip-Kweichow Moutai, dropped by over 5% and touched the level below CNY1800 per share for the first time this year. Kweichow Moutai How did it start? It was all related to recent crack down on private education industry. Soft copy of the policies targeting the education sector were circulated on line on the Friday day afternoon. I also got a screen shot of the partial soft copy in Chinese. It said the educational training institutions will be banned from raising money through listings. That trigger the first wave of sell-off last Friday. Today is actually the second wave, that impacted the related companies listed in HK market. In addition, investors are concerned about how tighter the restrictions might go, even for Chinese big techs. Meituan, Tencent and BABA also got hit. From the selling orders, I suspected a bulk of those were from institutions. In addition, over CNH 10B fund outflowed via the China-HK connect scheme. I guess the regulations messed up the valuation, and uncertainty triggered the sell-off. Institutions will see how it goes in the future before coming back again. So I'm bearish for Chinese tech stocks the near term. For the education ones, I recommend immediate sell or sell the rebound . The Fundamental part of private education has changed. The related stocks are likely to go further down, say 30% to 40%, before new business models are recognized by the market. I personally, prefer Chinese alcohol stocks, e.g. Kweichow Moutai to Chinese tech companies. The unregulated golden days has passed. Today, I bought some Chinese alcohol ETF. The valuation of the sector become attractive. It reached a reasonable zone in my view. This is investor, not trading. I got enough cash to buy(dollar averaging cost) and are prepare for another 20% drop. I will buy the dip. I also linked my published idea regarding Tencent and HSI below. Both are coming toward my buying zone. However, the fear may result in overreaction under the current circumstance. To reduce the risk, you can wait for bullish pattern, bullish engulfing or breakout the downtrend line on the daily for better entries. Hopefully, it helps.
TVC:HSI
by JICPT
Hang Seng.....On a bearish path?Hello Traders, Hang Seng is on track to break below the July 9 low @ 26861! If so to come, it would open the door to 25939. More bearish potential exist! I have visualized the path for my idea! A break off the possible wave (2) level @ 28218 would be a first sign, that the correction could be done. It should open the door to the wave X high at 294xx zone and a break of this would end the correction definitely! Keep in mind, that HS is known for extensive corrections! So this one, should last for several weeks. In Germany we call it the „Sommer-Loch“ (Summer hole)! 😜 Have a great Sunday..... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng..... More bearish potential!?Hello Traders, Hang Seng has broke out of the flag and declined to 26861 on July 9! This decline was a 0.618 Fibonacci of wave a/w! In rare cases, this could be all off the correction in a wave c/w! But as long as HS is trading below 28833 level I favor the odds for a wave c or y which is not done to the downside. A break of the July 9 low would open the door to 25939 level. Here, waves c=a (i.e. y=w) and at this level is the 0.618 Fibo of the advance from 23124 to 31183! So I guess a strong Fibo-cluster! But more bearish potential exist! A break of the 28833 area would signal the correction should be done, and HS is on the way to new highs. Have a great Sunday..... Ruebennase Feel free to aks or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng ready for a big bull run and catch up.The worst of fundamentals are over and fully discounted and act upon; riots, security law, China supposed disregard, enough time of selling by global managers. The truth of "cyclical" better fundamentals; lowest PE ratio, most attractive valuations for a most developed liquid market in Asia, China actually even more so will ensure it's version of one country two systems work. Like latest IPO, no restrictions on HK idea, the further integration with Pearl Delta positive effects will soon solidify, stability will bring prosperity & greater confidence (don't believe the great exodus hot propagated story, businessmen go where the money is, not politics ideology). The technicals are now ready. The daily charts have formed a nice base, and started moving up even in the midst of a few days of bearish moves in US Nasdaq & S&P . The underlyings for the 1st time in a long while points to Hang Seng out-performing. Study and get ready.
TVC:HSILong
by strategist59soonhock
1
JICPT|HSI range breakout with target of 25700 (AB=CD)Hang Seng Index dropped by more than 8% in the past 2 weeks amid tightened regulations on Chinese Tech stocks. BABA, Tencent, Meituan all fell quite a long to recent lows. From the chart, I can clearly spot that the range move has been terminated with big bearish candle. Technically, how much more could the index go down further? By applying the measure move method, there might be another 5% room to go down. 25700-25900 is a confluence zone with flip & gap & ab=cd . The probability of rebound from this zone is very high. Those days could be really tough, If you have exposure to Chinese tech stocks, like BABA and BIDU that listed in both HK or U.S. We could know how the stocks move in the U.S. trading session half day in advance, based on the movement in HK market, unless something important happens after HK market is closed. Give me a like if you're with my idea.
TVC:HSIShort
by JICPT
Hang Seng.....Lower targets?Hello Traders, Hang Seng has had 4 strong down days and declined to 28310 (closing). The move as counted at the hourly chart could not be another waves 1-2, becomes it retraced to deep (below the 0.786 Fib). So, the alternate comes to forefront and a wave 2 should retrace deeper to ~28086 level. Closing below 27718 would make the bullish forecast invalid. An alternate view suggests, that at the possible wave ((iii) (blue) high at 31183 a wave Y has ended and a correction to much lower levels should be underway! At the hourly chart, I have visualized the idea for a wave 2 (blue) and a retracement. Note the trend line. We will see, how Hang Seng will do in the coming session. Have a great Sunday..... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
HSI 7% range move with buy low and sell high pattern! Hello everyone. Hong Seng index has been sideways for a while influenced by the joint forces of US and China markets. From the daily chart, the 7% range will be held firmly from some time. I would adopt a buy low and sell high trading strategy. Strategy works until it doesn't. My trade plan is as below: 1. the upper zone being violated: buy the pullback with target set around previous high around 31000 2. the bottom zone being violated: exit and look for buying opportunities around 25000. Stay safe and trade safe.
TVC:HSI
by JICPT
Hang Seng.....Not really impulsive!Hello Traders, Hang Seng has risen to 29288.23 and has found support at ~ 28282 area (blue trend line) -->Daily chart! A rise above the possible wave ((b)) high at 29490 would open the door to 29620 and 29880. Note the open gap left by trading on March 3rd! This would be closed at 30074.18! It needs a decline below the support area of 28282 to become more bearish again, with prices at or around the 27505 level. A break of this area could open the door to 27505. Have a great weekend..... Ruebennase Feel free to ask anytime! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase