BTP - Italian Yields soar as Budget Issues remainItaly continued to be a sticking point for European policymakers. Salvini and DiMaio are not collaborating and want a higher budget deficit for 2019 than the EU will allow. Deadline is October 15th.
IT10Y trade ideas
BTP - Italian Bonds Under Pressure Post-Budget MeetingItaly's populist government kept some of it's promises and delivered a hefty budget for 2019 ata deficit of 2.4%.
Markets are pricing in more of a conflict between Italy and Brussels. THis move down has quite a ways to go.
Short BTP (If/Then)If Italy 10y yield breaks and closes above Kijun Sen (3,07 %), then BTP market Will face a massive selloff, targetting 3,85 % - 4,00 % zone.
Get ready for short!
BTPs - Showing more signs of stressClash between EU and Italy becoming more evident as Italy Rating Outlook Cut by Fitch on Possible Fiscal Loosening but "Italians come before ratings agencies" deputy PM says - “We have to put the financing in the budget so that at least 5 million impoverished Italians can get back to work.”
UPD: Italy 10YY at 4year high, trading in SD3On route to triangle PO at 3.7-3.8 area $MIB40, $EURUSD, $EWI
BTPs - Still under Pressure90.00 might break soon, on the back of continued tension between Italy's populist government and the EU.
BTPs - Negative Bias Remains In PlayRecent comments from Italy's DiMaio continue to worry markets that a future clash is possible which will put yet another dent in the EU's cohesion.
The Spread widens This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping).
This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it would be the German bund.
STATE OF EUROPE!A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Right now Italy doesn't look so good with capital flights and a weakening economy.
On the technical side of things, price had a nice reaction with the lows which happens to be the all time lows in the Italian bonds.
This is a place I'd look for longs but first , I'd need proof that buyers are still here.
BTP, calm before the storm, trigger the interest ratehello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal policy, I expect a higher deficit and maybe a cut in taxes.
This will trigger a sell in the bond market of BTP, driving interest rate up and consequently price down.
Here I post a couple of interest readings on Italy, which can give us some idea of what to expect.
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
au revoir,
docCDS
Are you afraid of the Italians?...Are you afraid of the Italians? Yes. The 10-year government bond interest rate track shows no optimistic signs. Although we are waiting for a slump because of the pace of the first wave of the triple wave structure at the correction phase of the first wave of the triple wave structure, but a few days maybe a week and the decline in the interest rate may end. Then, the second and third wave sections of the wave motion can be formed. This move is likely to be felt at the EURUSD exchange rate as well. Not the euro is in the direction of strengthening.
BTP - Holding below Flip ZoneOur negative bias remains in play as prices continue to hold below the recent flip zone.
BTPs - Poised for Further LossesBTPs bounced the key resistance area and have closed below a recent flip zone on the back of fears that Italy will not comply with EU rules in forming it's next budget, that contains flat-tax proposals and a hefty pension reform.
Look for further losses today.
BTP - Italian bonds still under scrutinyItaly's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said
that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget.
Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains.
Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.
BTPs - Low Volatility Breakout Italian BTPs are under pressure again, after bouncing recent highs. The narrative this time round is a top-level meeting
amongst ministers to plan the next budget. The market fears that Italy's populist government will pressure EU fiscal rules...
IT10y-US10y yield spread looking to another leg higherVery pretty triangle forming in potential B wave suggests attempts for another leg higher in coming weeks to break up to +50bps+
Need confirmation first (staying above tri support) then breakout.
BTPs - Downside Risks ReturnMarket participants are watching this move in BTPs today, as Northern League leader Salvini is
asking for the resignation of Italy's Finance Minister Tria.
ITA10 yr yields still heading higherTriangle of minor fourth wave still in play (just completed c possibly). Higher in d then pullback in e to finish wave iv before thrust higher to 3.80% in coming weeks/months to finish wave 3/C before wider consolidation at higher yield levels
Italy-Germany 10 yr yield spreadSince the recent close above 1.40% the spread widening has accelerated as anticipated. MAY (repeat may) get some pause in the 2.00%-2.12% zone but imo the next logical stopping points are not until those levels marked on the chart....
