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Daily Market Update for 1/20Summary: A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 20, 2022 Facts: -1.30%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 62% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Another failed rally, closing range of 3%, volume higher on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.10%), DJI (-0.89%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+7.30%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.13%) and Financials (XLF -0.64%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.30% loss. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking another distribution day. The failed morning rally created a long upper wick that sits over a 62% red body. There is a tiny lower wick, leaving the candle with a 3% closing range. Nearly three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continued to sell-off more than the other indexes, declining -1.88% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.89%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +7.30%. Only the Utilities (XLU +0.13%) sector ended the day with a gain. Financials (-0.64%) was the second best sector for the day, helped by some positive earnings reports from banks in the morning. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast, coming in at 286,000 compared to the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January printed 23.2 compared to the expectation of 20.0. That was welcome news after the NY Manufacturing Index showed worsening conditions with a negative print. Existing Home Sales for December was under the forecast by 4%. Crude Oil Inventories was higher than expected, marking some fall back in demand. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.16%. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to slide while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices seemed to bottom. Silver continued to rise sharply while Gold declined. Aluminum Futures are reaching back toward record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.816. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral, from the Greed area yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) continued to tumble, with a -2.96% decline. The stock is nearly 20% off its all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed just above its 200d moving average, losing -1.34% today. Apple (AAPL) made an attempt to get back above its 50d moving average, but ended the day with a -1.03% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.57%. Top performing stocks for the day in both the mega-cap and growth list were Chinese companies. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the top of the mega-cap list with a +2.58% advance. At the bottom of the list was Nvidia (NVDA), declining -3.66% today as the entire semiconductor segment continues to lose ground. The top five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were all Chinese, with Ehang Holdings (EH)leading the charge and gaining +11.40%. At the bottom of the growth list was Peloton (PTON). The company dropped -23.93% after news hit that they would be halting production of bikes and treadmills. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for the UK and Canada will come overnight. Otherwise, there is not much economic news in the calendar for Friday. Schlumberger (SLB) and Huntington Bacnshares (HBAN) report earnings in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to tumble as it doesn’t seem to be catching any support areas. The index is -12.70% below its all-time high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 12/28 high, it would require a +1.37% advance on Friday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.35% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -1.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Pain, pain, pain. It's tough to watch the failed rally attempts turn into significant losses day after day this week. The strengthening dollar today and rising Treasury prices both point to money coming back into the US market. If that can continue, we should see some support in US equity markets as investors look for greater returns. Based on the chart, the index is not giving us any indication of a reversal, so the expectation for tomorrow remains Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/19Summary: Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 19, 2022 Facts: -1.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 74% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Lost the 14,500 support area, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, long upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.96%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (+4.65%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.15% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. A long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that failed. The rest of the candle is 74% red body, leaving behind practically no lower wick and a 3% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for another day, dropping -1.60%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.97% and -0.96%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.65%. Only two sectors in the S&P 500 finished the day with gains, both defensive sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) were at the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) were at the bottom. Building Permits and Housing Starts data exceeded expectations for December. There were 1.87m Building Permits compared to the forecast of 1.70m. And there were 1.70m Housing Starts compared to a forecast of 1.65m. Consumer Price Index data from the UK and Canada were both higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) dropped by -0.11%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields receded a bit while the 2y Treasury Yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold both rose sharply for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.717 as some investors may be seeing a bounce from here. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Greed, from a Neutral level yesterday. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) advanced for the day although it gave back much of its intraday gains. The stock ended the day with a +0.22% advance. Apple (AAPL) joined the other three in closing below its 50d moving average, dropping -2.10% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.65% while Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.65%. Proctor & Gamble (PG) was the top mega-cap, rising +3.36% on a solid earnings report released in the premarket. The company stated that prices will continue to rise. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -3.38% today. Nvidia (NVDA) also declined more than -3%. Peloton (PTON) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. The stock climbed +5.33% after the company announced it would be cutting staff and other fixed costs, improving the profitability in the company despite slower growth. Digital Turbine (APPS) was at the bottom of the list, losing -6.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. We will also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index. The NY index showed worsening conditions for January. After the market opens, Existing Home Sales data will be available. Crude Oil Inventories will come later in the morning. Overnight, inflation data for Europe will be made available. Tomorrow's earnings reports include Netflix (NFLX), CSX (CSX), Travelers (TRV), Fifth Third (FITB), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to lose support areas as it moved well into correction territory, down -11.55% from the all-time high. If the index moves back to the 12/29 trend line, that would mean a +0.68% advanced tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.78% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pain continues. However, Treasury Yields showed some leveling off today. With some surprise economic data or better earnings reports, we could see a bounce over the next day or two. That won't give us much indication of whether the bounce would hold into next week. Confidence will only come when we see a rotation back into growth sectors that’s broadly shared across the Nasdaq (high advance/decline ratio) and a an advance on higher volume. Based on the chart and today's intraday moves, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/18Summary: Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 18, 2022 Facts: -2.60%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 9%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Move below 200d moving average on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.84%), DJI (-1.51%), RUT (-3.06%), VIX (+18.76%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.40%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. The Nasdaq (IXIC) dropped -2.60% today. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking a significant distribution day for the index. The closing range of 9% comes below a red body that covers 68% of the candle. The longer upper wick was formed in the morning as the index attempted to move back above the 200d moving average but hit resistance. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps had the most significant decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -3.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.84% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.51%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up +18.76%. Of the S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.40%) gained for the day. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) were at the bottom of the list. Financials was pulled down by disappointing earnings reports from Goldman Sachs. The Technology sector tends to be most sensitive to rising Treasury yields. To further dampen market sentiment, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in less than zero at -0.70 compared to the forecast of 25.70. The negative number indicates worsening conditions. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50% today. The dollar strengthened that last three days. The US 10y and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply, reaching their highest levels since the beginning of 2020. The US 30y Treasury Yield also rose. The gap between long and short term yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also dropped sharply, tracking with Treasury prices (Yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures are nearing a new high. Silver rose despite the strengthening dollar. Gold declined. Timber (WOOD) prices fell sharply after hitting its highest point since May. The put/call ratio declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index is hovering around Neutral. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four remaining above its 50d moving average line, declining -1.89% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -2.43% and -2.50% as they both approach the 200d moving average. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the best-performing mega-cap for the day, climbing +1.68%. The only other mega-cap to gain more than 1% was Eli Lilly (LLY) closing the day with a +1.21% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with -4.86% and -5.21% declines. Chinese fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holding (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +3.85% and +2.97%. The largest losses in the list came from Cloudflare (NET), declining -6.64%, and Lemonade (LMND), falling -6.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data for December will be available in the morning before the market opens. We'll also get inflation data for the UK and Canada overnight. UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and United Airlines (UAL) are among the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 14,500 resistance/support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, that would mean a +0.27% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.22% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -1.10% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I mentioned on Friday that we'll continue to feel pain until the Bond market stabilizes. With yields spiking today, that meant more price declines for the major indexes and nearly all sectors. Maybe we'll see a bounce in the right direction tomorrow, but much of that depends on Treasury yields. Based on the chart, the expectation is for Lower on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq (IXIC) | The best scenario for the fallHello traders, Nasdaq (IXIC) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe. By looking at the waves, Waves 1 and 2 are probably over at weekly time, and this analysis and this wave count is part of Wave 3. Wave 3 that we are talking about is not on the Fibonacci in the weekly time that can be reversed, and only we considered this correction by counting the wave in the daily time. In daily time, waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is in excellent condition in terms of appearance, but it is not in good shape relative to wave 1. Waves 2 and 4 are very similar both in appearance and correction, causing the wave count to be not normal. However, there are exceptions in the waves. We gave the possibility of correction, provided that the trend line is completely broken, and now this failure has taken place to some extent. We determine the nature of this correction and this wave after completion, but in the first movement of this wave, I think the movements occur in the form of five waves. If the end of wave 5 is broken, the complete analysis of the field will not be done, but this correction will be done in a short time. 🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏 ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
TVC:IXICShort
by mahdisoltaninjad
1
Daily Market Update for 1/14Summary: Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 14, 2022 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green Good: Support at 200d MA, gain on higher volume, high closing range Bad: Lower high and low, lower weekly close Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-5.51%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.59% gain. The candle is mostly green body, and the closing range of 98% comes on higher volume than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the only index to decline, losing -0.56% today, weighed down by large financial institutions and industrial sector stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.14%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -5.51%. Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) were the top sectors for the day. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) we at the bottom of the sector list. Retail Sales in December declined more than expected month-over-month, dropping -1.9% compared to a forecast of -0.1%. Industrial Production was also lower than expected. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for January is also lower than expected, likely impacted by the surge in Omicron cases across the US. The US dollar strengthened after weakening significantly earlier in the week. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.32% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined, tracking with treasury prices (yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures continues to track higher, nearing the high levels in October. The put/call ratio rose to 0.875. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at Neutral but moved toward the Greed side. All four largest mega-caps gained. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant gain after declining the most among the four yesterday. It gained +1.77% today. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.51% after hitting resistance at its 21d EMA. All four charts are not looking great, with Amazon (AMZN) struggling the most, 14% below its all-time and 52-week high. Wells Fargo (WFC) topped the mega-cap chart, defying the rest of the Financial sector with an earnings beat and profits growing 86%. On the other end of the mega-cap list is JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which fell -6.15% after missing street revenue estimates. The Daily Update Growth List had a good number of winners today, but most stocks in the list declined. At the top of the list is Futu Holdings (FUTU), with a +3.31% gain. That was followed by another Chinese stock, JD.com (JD), which gained +3.19%. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, giving back some of its recent gains with a -6.0% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr Holiday. Tuesday will open with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will come after the market closes. Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Goldman Sachs (GS), PNC Financial (PNC) are some of the big financial company earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support around the 200d moving average today before closing higher. The index remains below the 15,000 support/resistance area. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, expect a +0.72% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line would result in a -0.27% gain. Returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high would result in a -1.57% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy week. Monday and Tuesday looked good as the Nasdaq seemed to catch a bottom intraday on Monday and end the day with a gain on higher volume. Tuesday continued that momentum, but then sentiment turned on Wednesday as more rate increases in 2022 seemed likely from Fed officials' public statements. That resulted in a crushing loss on Thursday and a loss for the week despite some support on Friday. Only two sectors closed the week with gains. Energy rose +5% this week after gaining +10% last week. Communications somehow pulled out a +0.16% for the week. Real Estate was the worst-performing sector for the week as investors anticipate higher interest rates to impact profitability in the sector. The percentage of stocks above their 50d moving averages is still in the low 40% range. That's better than December when it was near 20% for the 50d, but we'd like to see the number near 60%. We need to see some stabilization in the US dollar and the bond market that signals investors are more confident about the Fed's playbook for 2022 (the speed of tapering, the number of interest rate hikes, and the run-off of balance sheet assets). Once that happens, volatility should finally recede a bit in equity markets. Until then, we'll continue to feel some pain and possibly a little more correction. We've only seen a -10% drop from the top for the Nasdaq. The expectation for Tuesday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
The Bigger Picture - Asset MarketsToday I will be attempting to explain and predict the future trajectory of U.S. asset markets. *FULL DISCLOSURE* >My current investments include PUT options on full market ETFs such as ARKK, funds, and treasury bills (TLT). My investments also include call credit spread options on many Cryptocurrency stocks and portfolios with expirations within 1.5 years. I do not trade on margin, and I do not work within an investment agency that specializes in providing advice to non-investors. >Investments are risky and subject to considerable losses. Please perform your own research or speak to a trusted advisor before engaging in any type of investment. PREFACE *The US markets have currently embarked on one of the greatest bull runs in history, with access to capital and stimulus being at the highest peak in decades if not a century. When the COVID-19 pandemic first began, markets panicked as future uncertainty gave way to extreme volatility by means of unprecedented risk factors. As the markets fell, and halts were triggered, investors had to make risky decisions on how to trade in an environment completely foreign to them. Scaling lockdowns, decreased employment, and society on the verge of mass hysteria led to complete and catastrophic withdrawal from markets everywhere. This, of course, led to tantalizing prices at the bottom of the fall once stimulus was expected to come in the following months. Companies knew that with citizens now flushed with cash (that many may not have even needed in the first place) would lead to an excess in spending and an increase in prices. At the bottom of the selloff cycle, BOLs (buyers of last resort) stepped in and saved the market. It was then that the bull market of 2020-2021 began. EXPLANATION OF POSITION *Once a market bottom was triggered, it was off to the races. Of course investors knew that while outlook would improve, there was no way that corporations were going to be able to maintain steady future growth during this volatile time with respect to past profits. My assumption remains that the drastic turn from bear to bull market was not from the expectations that company profits would skyrocket beyond previous years, as this would be illogical and historically false. The idea was to sell hope. To sell "growth". To sell potential. Ideas like "growth" and "potential" when used as a measure of a companies value are inherently risky indicators, but extremely intelligent to market. After all, if you can take a new company with no historical balance sheet data and create a narrative around it, there are no arguments against it as one cannot prove that significant growth will not occur in the future. Similar tactics were used during the dotcom boom of the late 1990s-2000. If there are no fundamental aspects of a company yet to be analyzed, investors cannot make informed decisions about the future solvency of the company. This is a perfect investment scheme, as theories surrounding the future outlook of a company can neither be proved nor disproved as there is no data available for unprecedented circumstances. FUTURE PREDICTION It is my belief that we have reached a point where all capital that can be utilized to purchase assets has been expended. Narrative and sentiment is historically retrospective, and only months after a bubble has burst will we see the effects. My prediction is that the bubble burst late October-mid November. Like a rocket that has launched from earth, the burners turn off before the rocket ever loses momentum. I believe that momentum is starting to fade. My chart notes a few significant indicators. Healthy corrections are market by drawn elipses and "thumbs-up" symbols. The trend that signals an abnormal correction and potential peak is marked by a red flag. Media outlets will have you believe that the reason for rises and falls in the market somehow pertain to the current pandemic, but this is false. The market only cares and operates under one concept. Money. Who has it? Who is spending it, and on what? Is there a low supply or high supply flowing into markets? The pandemic has changed the rules on how and where money is spent, but not significantly. Retail investors are most likely seen by investment firms as sources of income instead of valued opponents within the market. As retail trading volume falls, Investment firms previously working in tandem to feed off of unsuspecting consumers investment capital, will soon begin to feed off of each other as retail investor capital dries up. Corporate cannabalism, stripping each other of funds through the same manipulation they used to strip retail investors of theirs. When this happens, the market experiences significant volatility (imagine Godzilla and Optimus Prime fighting each other, destroying an entire city as they battle). In the end, the city will be the market and the citizens will be the ones that pay the price. Below are my current official predictions. 1.) We are currently experiencing a fall in asset prices due to the FEAR of FUTURE rate increases. This will pale in comparison to the ACTUAL EVENT of rate increases, solidifying it in reality. 2.) Global markets will endure significant turmoil as spillover from various foreign economic crises reach domestic soil. (China credit crisis and real estate failure) 3.) Because monetary policy has already been pushed to its limit, the FED will struggle to find new tools to maintain equilibrium in a time when the market begins crashing while rates are already near 0. This is an extremely dangerous place to be. 4.) Sentiment will shift to negative extremes and the suspension of disbelief will be broken as investors scramble to their exit strategies in a market that has locked all doors out. 5.) The NASDAQ will fall below 9,000 and find support, only to trend sideways for years. 6.) IPOs and SPAC mergers will fail and create a significant credit crisis as the US government does not have the funds to bail out so many failing companies at once during a time when our debt ceiling is already at its limit. 7.) Markets will (in future months/years) return to normal functioning, however, with significantly decreased volume and sentiment. We are all audience to a magnificent orchestral performance. Now, the piece is reaching its final crescendo. As the players stand and take their bow, the greatest fools will be revealed, and we may find that the fools look a lot like ourselves.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by ProjectIcarus
8
Daily Market Update for 1/13Summary: Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 13, 2022 Facts: -2.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 92% Red Good: Close above 200d MA, volume lower on decline Bad: Thick red body, selling all-day, failed support at 15,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.48, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.42%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (+15.27%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.51% decline, returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range was only 5%, coming underneath a 92% red body. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -1.42% lower, led by growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.49%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.76%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +15.27%. Only three sectors ended the day with gains, led by the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.49%). Industrials (XLI +0.22%) was the next best sector, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) had the most significant losses. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in lower than expected, growing only 2% month-over-month compared to the analyst forecast of 0.4%. That could indicate inflation is topping out as the producer price index is a forward-looking view on consumer price increases. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 230,000, higher than the expected 200,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) continued lower, declining -0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Timber (WOOD) continues to climb higher while other commodities pulled back from recent gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.781. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index decreased to 74.78. All four largest mega-caps decline. Apple (AAPL) moved back below its 21d EMA with a -1.90% decline. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant loss of the four, dropping -4.23% today. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.42%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -2.01%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list, gaining +5.26% after an exceptional earnings report before the market opened. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -6.75% decline. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list with a +4.75% gain, defying gravity today thanks to high short interest and a continued bullish sentiment from the Kentucky Fried Chicken deal. CloudFlare (NET) took the brunt of the profit-taking, declining -13.15% to give back all the gains this week and close at its lowest level year-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for December will be available in the morning. We'll also get numbers for Industrial Production for December. The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Data for January will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance If the index can return to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.52% advance tomorrow. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -0.44% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -2.37% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's painful to watch, but the market is still figuring out how often and how quickly the Fed will increase rates this year to control inflation. As investors and analysts hang on every word of Fed officials' public statements, they re-evaluate the impact on the bond and equity markets. We can expect more volatility as the month progresses. Based on the broken support today and a new intra-week low, the expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 1/12Summary: A rally back into large-cap stocks drove the major indexes higher on Wednesday, while small-caps fell back. Consumer Price Index data for December was higher than forecast, but investors remained confident that the Fed would remain vigilant in controlling inflation in 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 12, 2022 Facts: +0.23%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 35%, Body: 37% Red Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Red body, fade after topping 15,200 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Red body in middle of equal length wicks Advance/Decline: 0.71, more declining stocks than advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.28%), DJI (+0.11%), RUT (-0.82%), VIX (-4.29%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.01%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.66%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.04%) and Health (XLV -0.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A rally back into large-cap stocks drove the major indexes higher on Wednesday, while small-caps fell back. Consumer Price Index data for December was higher than forecast, but investors remained confident that the Fed would remain vigilant in controlling inflation in 2022. The Nasdaq rose +0.23% for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. The red body covers 35% of the candle, sitting in the middle of equal-length upper and lower wicks. The second day of higher highs and higher lows is the start of an uptrend. However, there were more declining than advancing stocks, and volume remained low. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.28% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.11%. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) did not participate in the rally, declining -0.82% today. The VIX Volatility Index fell -4.29%. Ten out of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose today. Materials (XLB +1.01%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.66%) were the top sectors. Health (XLV -0.29%) was the only sector to decline. The Core Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in December compared to the forecast of 0.5%. Year-over-year growth was 5.5% compared to an expected 5.4%. Crude Oil Inventories showed higher demand than expected. The 10-year Note Auction didn't move yields much. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply, declining -0.64% today. The US 30y and 2y Treasury Yields rose while the 10y yield declined slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures increased significantly for a second day. The put/call ratio increased to 0.617. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Greed range. Apple (AAPL) continued to rally with a +0.26% gain today after closing above its 21d EMA yesterday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had gains but have some work before repairing their charts. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.09% today. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.95%. It was followed closely by Tesla (TSLA), which ended the day with a +3.93% advance. Ely Lilly was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -2.44% today. The Daily Update Growth List had mixed results. NIO (NIO) was at the top of the list with a +5.53% gain. Peloton (PTON) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.66% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Produce Price Index data will be available tomorrow morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims before the market opens. Earnings reports will include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index rallied in the morning but then faded the rest of the day, closing below the 15,200 support/resistance area. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, it will meet with the five-day trend line for a -0.43% decline. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -2.74% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Two days of higher highs and higher lows is good. However, the index needs to make it back to 15,900 to claim a new trend and attempt a new all-time high. The lowering volume and advance/decline line below 1.0 signals weakness even as the index rallies this week. We need to see the index break back above the 21d EMA and head toward 15,900 on higher volume with broad support. Other key indicators to watch for are the percentage of stocks above their 50d and 200d averages. Both of these indicators remain below 0.5 at the moment. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways as we wait for the index to decide on a direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Tumble?Today, we had the much anticipated Fed hearing and it did little to encourage markets in either way. This chart is based on what most experts, even the naive ones on CNBC are now expecting a modest correction of 15%. Checking on a few indicators here, we can see the MACD has crossed into bearish territory and couple that with the Fed raising rates, tapering, and inflation we can see something building up. I do not believe it will be a market crash. Employment is up. The consumer is doing good. Debt is being paid off and there is $3 trillion dollars in saving/checking accounts. I do believe we will see a much needed correction.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by WorldEconomics
1
Daily Market Update for 1/10Summary: Markets dipped in the morning, but the Nasdaq rallied in the afternoon to close the day with a small gain. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, January 10, 2022 Facts: +0.05%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 97%, Body: 45% Green Good: High closing range, end day in positive on higher volume Bad: Dip below the 200d simple moving average Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long lower wick under a thick green body, high closing range Advance/Decline: 0.55, about two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.14%), DJI (-0.45%), RUT (-0.40%), VIX (+3.41%) Sector List: Health (XLV +1.03%) and Technology (XLK +0.02%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.02%) and Industrials (XLI -1.13%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets dipped in the morning, but the Nasdaq rallied in the afternoon to close the day with a small gain. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.05% advance. Volume was higher than the previous day, returning to the 50d average volume. The index dipped below the 200d moving average for the first time since the March 2020 correction. However, it recovered to close slightly higher for the day. That created a long lower wick under a 45% green body and a 97% closing range. There were almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock. All major indexes dipped in the morning and recovered in the afternoon, but only the Nasdaq finished the day positive. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.45%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.40%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +3.41%. Only two of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained for the day. Health (XLV) rose +1.03% and Technology (XLK) gained +0.02%. At the bottom of the sector list was Materials (XLB -1.02%) and Industrials (XLI -1.13%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose +0.22%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield advanced. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices advanced while the Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined further. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.753. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the Fear side of Neutral, but remained at Neutral. Three of the four largest mega-caps ended the day with gains. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.21%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) had smaller gains of +0.07% and +0.01%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.66%. Intel (INTC) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.31%. Tesla (TSLA) was second on the mega-cap list, climbing +3.03%. Nike (NKE) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.16% decline. Zynga (ZNGA) blew away the Daily Update Growth List with a 40.67% gain after Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) announced a $12.7b acquisition of the company. That's almost twice the market cap for Zynga at the beginning of the session. Take-Two Interactive dropped -13.13% on the news. Surprisingly, the Growth List was mostly gainers. The biggest loser was DraftKings (DKNG) with a -4.07% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Three Fed members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak tomorrow. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook will be released at noon. Albertsons (ACI) will release earnings tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Despite the morning dip, the index was in an uptrend the remainder of the day. If the one-day trend continues into Tuesday, we can expect a +1.81% advance. The trend line from the 12/18 high points to a -1.30% decline. The five-day trend line results in a -3.53% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was an odd day for the market. The Nasdaq dips below its 200d simple moving average, only to recover and close the day with a slight gain. More odd is the number of growth stocks that had significant gains for the day. Seeing big gains for Intel, Tesla and Adobe, while the indexes showed stress is perplexing. Were investors buying the dip and getting positioned back for growth? Or is it a bull trap and further selling is on the horizon? Based on the chart, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. The intraday uptrend (on higher volume) gives some hope, but the overall trend in the chart is still down. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Nasdaq (IXIC) | The best scenario for the fallHello traders, Nasdaq (IXIC) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe. By looking at the waves, the weekly times 1 and 2 are probably over, and this analysis and this wave count is part of wave 3. Wave 3 that we are talking about is not on the Fibonacci in the weekly time that can be reversed, and only we considered this correction by counting the wave in the daily time. In daily time, waves 1 and 2 are complete, and wave 3 is in excellent condition in terms of appearance, but it is not in good shape relative to wave 1. Waves 2 and 4 are very similar both in appearance and correction, making the wave count not normal. However, there are exceptions in the waves. We correct the probability provided that the trend line and the red circle are completely broken. If the end of wave 5 is broken, the complete analysis of the field will not be done, but this correction will be done in a short time. 🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏 ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
TVC:IXICShort
by mahdisoltaninjad
2
Seven Year cycle! US market crash in 2022When we study Gann's theory and, in addition to macro and economic, we will also study the cycle of the stock market, that is, the cycle. the bullishness of U.S. stocks in 2021 is still overwhelming. What will happen to the stock market in 2022, what will happen to the economy in 2022, and what will happen to U.S. stocks in 2022? The U.S. stock market in 2022 or up to the seven-year cycle will have the opportunity to retrace, many people have asked, then today we explain again. In Gann's theory, "seven" is a very important and mysterious number. Gann believes that "seven days", "seven weeks", "July", "seven years" may be the inner cycle of a certain stock. In the past, Xiao Long has successfully predicted the bull market in 2017, the bear market in 2018 and the Hong Kong stock market crash in 2021 by using the 30-year cycle and the 10-year cycle. Biblical term called “Shemitah’ has caught the market attention. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. U.S. stock valuations have been very expensive, Shiller P/E, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) to see, the U.S. PE is already 38.77, is the second highest in history. But when to fall is the point. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver, which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks.
TVC:IXIC
by ericresearchgann
1
Daily Market Update for 1/7Summary: Payrolls and Unemployment data sent a blurry picture to investors on the pace of economic recovery. The uncertainty ended a volatile week with more decline while investors continue evaluate pending rate hikes from the Fed later this year. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 7, 2022 Facts: -0.96%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 20%, Body: 54% Red Good: Lower volume on decline Bad: Lower high, lower low, closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Medium size body in middle of candle, slightly longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.78, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.41%), DJI (-0.01%), RUT (-1.20%), VIX (-4.33%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.18%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.92%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.67%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Payrolls and Unemployment data sent a blurry picture to investors on the pace of economic recovery. The uncertainty ended a volatile week with more decline while investors continue evaluate pending rate hikes from the Fed later this year. The Nasdaq declined -0.96%. Volume was much lower than the previous day and is the third day of lowering volume in a row. The candle has a 54% red body in between two similar upper and lower wicks. The upper wick is slightly longer. There were more declining than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) suffered the most significant loss today, declining -1.20%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped -0.41%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined only -0.01%, helped along by large Energy and Financials stocks The VIX Volatility Index declined -4.33%. Energy (XLE +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.18%) were the top performing sectors for another day. Energy has been a top-two sector every day this week. Financials was in the top-two for three of the five days. Technology (XLK -0.92%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.67%) were at the bottom of the sector list today. Nonfarm Payrolls for December increased by only 199,000 compared to a 400,000 forecast by analysts. However, the unemployment rate declined to 3.9% whereas analysts only expected it to drop to 4.1%. The US Dollar weakened with the index (DXY) declining by -0.52%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields gained for the day while the 2y yield declined. Yields are at their highest since the start of the pandemic. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices continue to decline (tracking along with treasury prices). The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.743. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into Greed, but remains near neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose from 85.71 the previous week to 89.54 this week. Two of the four largest mega-caps gained today. Apple (AAPL) And Microsoft (MSFT) ended the day with 0.10% and 0.05% gains, but also had lower highs and lower lows than the previous day. Apple (AAPL) is getting resistance at its 21d EMA while the other three, including Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL), are trading well-below both their 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alibaba (BABA) led the mega-cap list for another day, gaining +2.86% today. At the bottom of the list was Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), declining -3.87%. Futu Holdings (FUTU) topped the Daily Update Growth List, advancing +6.20%. The list had quite a few gainers, but also quite a few losers. The most significant loss came from Chewy (CHWY), which declined -8.26%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There are no significant economic events on the calendar for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq, closed just below the 15,000 area today. The level is a support/resistance area and the index bound up and down close to that market. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, we can expect a +0.35% gain on Monday. If the one-day trend line continues, then we can expect a -0.74% decline. The five-day trend line leads to a -1.82% loss to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The whole week was a bit depressing for investors. It started off with a new year's rally as investors came back from the holiday. But the sentiment quickly changed and got worse with the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and mediocre economic data throughout the week. Hopefully the first week of the year isn't an omen for the rest of 2022. For Monday, expect sideways or lower based on the chart. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2