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Daily Market Update for 8/18Summary: Stocks slid after the Fed release meeting minutes from last month, raising fears that tapering support for the economy could come earlier than previously thought. Most sectors declined, with only Consumer Discretionary holding onto a gain for the day. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 18, 2021 Facts: -0.89%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 61% Good: Lower volume Bad: Close below the 50d MA, sell-off before close of market Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Large red body below short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.38, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.07%), DJI (-1.08%), RUT (-0.84%), VIX (+20.32%) Sector List: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.36%) and Utilities (XLU -0.51%) at the top. Health (XLV -1.52%) and Energy (XLE -2.08%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Stocks slid after the Fed release meeting minutes from last month, raising fears that tapering support for the economy could come earlier than previously thought. Most sectors declined, with only Consumer Discretionary holding onto a gain for the day. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.89% loss, dipping just below the 50-day moving average line. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range of 5% is below a 61% red body. There is a short upper wick with a very tiny lower wick. There were almost three stocks declining for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.07%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was down -0.84% at the end of the day. The VIX volatility index rose +20.32%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.36%) was the only sector to gain for the day but was significantly lower at close than where it was early in the day. Utilities (XLU -0.51%) was the next best sector for the day. Health (XLV -1.52%) and Energy (XLE -2.08%) were the worst two sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Building Permits data was higher than expected, while Housing Starts was a bit lower than expected. Crude Oil Inventories showed more demand than forecast. The Fed Meeting Minutes from last month mentioned that employment might recover within this year to the required level to begin removing economic support. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.03%. The dollar fell sharply after the Fed minutes but recovered most of the loss. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) declined. Gold (GOLD) advanced slightly. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.24%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.14%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined. Apple (AAPL) fell -2.55% to close below its 21d EMA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.80% and -0.89% but remained above the key moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) lost -1.26%, moving farther below -1.26%. Tesla (TSLA) topped the mega-cap list today after being at the bottom of the list for the start of the week. Including Tesla, only four mega-caps gained for the day. The other three were Salesforce.com (CRM), Netflix (NFLX), and Home Depot (HD). Nvidia (NVDA), Pfizer (PFE), Oracle (ORCL), and Apple were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Robinhood (HOOD), Palantir (PTR), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU) were at the top of the daily update growth list, which surprisingly at quite a few gainers. Peloton (PTON), Cloudflare (NET), Roku (ROKU), and Pinterest (PINS) were the biggest losers in the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.622. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into extreme fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims data will be available on Thursday morning. We'll also get the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index on Thursday. Last month, the New York and Philadelphia indexes showed different readings on manufacturing activity. Applied Materials (AMAT), Estee Lauder (EL), Ross Stores (ROST), Farfetch (FTCH), Kohls (KSS), and Macy's (M) are some of the earnings reports for Thursday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed just under the 50d moving average line. The trend line from the 8/5 high points to a sideways move with a +0.62% gain tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines end with a +0.29% advance. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I doubt the content of the Fed meeting minutes was much of a surprise to most. However, it did become the catalyst that finally brought some selling momentum that seemed to be building the past week. Let's see if that was enough to get the bearishness out of the system. Based on the chart, the expectation remains Lower until the market gives us some reason to expect something different. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/17Summary: Disappointing retail sales data confirmed fears that the rising cases of the Delta variant are slowing down the economic recovery. That sent major indexes lower on Tuesday. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 17, 2021 Facts: -0.93%, Volume higher, Closing range: 63%, Body: 9% Good: Stayed above 50d MA Bad: Break down below 21d EMA on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.32, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.71%), DJI (-0.79%), RUT (-1.19%), VIX (+11.24%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.18%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.37%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Disappointing retail sales data confirmed fears that the rising cases of the Delta variant are slowing down the economic recovery. That sent major indexes lower on Tuesday. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.93% loss on higher volume than the previous day. It was a distribution day as only the defensive sectors ended the day with gains. The candle has a thin red body in the upper half of the candle. The closing range is 63%, and the body only covers 9% of the candle. The lower wick is longer than the upper wick. There were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) broke a multi-day winning streak, declining -0.71% and -0.79% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.19%. The VIX volatility index rose +11.24%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list for the third day. Health (XLV +1.18%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.19%) were the best sectors of the day. Only the four defensive sectors gained for the day. At the bottom of the sector list are Materials (XLB -1.15%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.37%). The poor performance for Consumer Discretionary comes after dismal retail sales data in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Retail Sales data for July showed negative month-over-month growth. The expectation was for sales to fall, but not at such a large amount. Industrial Production was up more than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell made public comments today, expressing concern over the Delta variant's impact on the economy. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.56%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.51%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -3.87%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) has the most concerning chart, closing below its 200d moving average. The other three are trading above moving averages and continue to show an uptrend. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.52%, Apple (AAPL) fell -0.62%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -1.19%. The top four mega-caps were all health-related. Pfizer (PFE), Novo Nordisk (NVO), United Health (UNH), and AbbVie (ABBV) were the top four, all gaining more than 1%. At the bottom of the list are Tesla (TSLA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Home Depot (HD), and Alibaba (BABA). Sea Limited (SE), Peloton (PTON), Fastly (FSLY), and Etsy (ETSY) were the top gainers in the daily update growth list today. GrowGeneration (GRWG), UP Fintech (TIGR), Lemonade (LMND), and Alibaba (BABA) are at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.753. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index slipped back into the fear range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday's economic data include Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the market opens, we'll get an update on Crude Oil Inventories. The Fed will release last month's meeting minutes in the afternoon. Tencent (TCEHY), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), and Bath Body Works (BBWI) are some of the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq closed below the 21d EMA today but stayed above the 50d MA. The trend line from the 8/5 high points to a sideways move with a +0.01% gain tomorrow. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.12% decline. The one-day trend line points to a -0.74% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Retail Sales data confirmed fears that economic activity is slowing, as consumer sentiment data warned last week. On the other hand, Walmart reported strong revenue growth for the quarter and stated that the Delta variant isn't having any meaningful impact on business. The distribution day should bring some caution to the investor. Without some bullish news, we could see more pullback before investors start to buy the dip. The expectation for tomorrow is for Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
☘️ NASDAQ Timeline - What's Next? 🎬🍿Well, to begin with we have posted this idea as LONG, which means we don't expect any crash to happen in the following months. Money is being printed by the tons, the younger generation gets to invest from an earlier point in life (not just crypto) and the mighty Nasdaq is a symbol of how Technology will rule the World. Low rates and printing, benefit the stock markets. If interest rates will finally rise the chances of a correction will increase. Until then, let the party go ON. Remember our earlier projection is going as per plan: Nevertheless, take a look at our little informative chart art and let us know if you like it. What's next? One love, the FXPROFESSOR
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by FX_Professor
11
Daily Market Update for 8/16Summary: Investors sold off equities in the morning and then seemingly decided there was nowhere else to put the money and bought back assets in the afternoon. Capital moved back into the market, mostly into defensive sectors, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) to another set of records. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 16, 2021 Facts: -0.20%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 12% Good: Volume lower on retreat, high closing range Bad: Long lower wick pierced through 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Hanging man, small body above long lower wick within uptrend Advanced/Decline: 0.31, more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.26%), DJI (+0.31%), RUT (-0.89%), VIX (+4.20%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.14%) and Utilities (XLU +0.61%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.50%) and Energy (XLE -1.84%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors sold off equities in the morning and then seemingly decided there was nowhere else to put the money and bought back assets in the afternoon. Capital moved back into the market, mostly into defensive sectors, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) to another set of records. The Nasdaq closed with a decline of -0.20% after dipping more than 1.4% in the morning. Volume was lower than the previous day. The thin body above a long lower wick creates a hanging man candlestick within an uptrend. The closing range of 100% shows bulls kept up the buying into close. Still, there were more than three declining stocks for every advancing stock for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) had their fifth consecutive record close day. The S&P 500 gained +0.26% while the Dow Jones advanced +0.31%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.89% The VIX volatility index advanced +4.20%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list again today. Health (XLV +1.14%) and Utilities (XLU +0.61%) were the best sectors of the day. At the bottom of the sector list are Materials (XLB -0.50%) and Energy (XLE -1.84%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in much lower than expected, showing a slowdown in US manufacturing activity. The more important data came from China which showed a considerable slowdown in Retail Sales and Industrial Production. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.10%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields declined while the 2y Treasury Yield rose. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced another day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.09%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.57%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four of the largest mega-caps gained today, helping bring the indexes back from the morning dip. Apple (AAPL) advanced +1.35%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +0.60%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.42%. Amazon (AMZN) dipped below its 200d moving average line but recovered to gain +0.15% by the end of the day. Eli Lilly (LLY), United Health (UNH), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and AbbVie (ABBV) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining over 1.5%. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -4.32% decline after the US opened a safety investigation into their Autopilot system. Also at the bottom of the mega-cap list are Alibaba (BABA), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). Only a handful of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Top gainers were PayCom (PAYC), PayPal (PYPL), Facebook (FB), and D.R. Horton (DHI). The biggest losers included Chinese stocks NIO (NIO), Up Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). Robinhood (HOOD) also joins that list, with all of them losing over 5% today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.671. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to Neutral, despite the selling and defensive plays today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tuesday brings several bits of economic data. US Retail Sales data and Industrial Production data are available before the market opens. Business Inventories and Retail Inventories become available after the market opens. The Fed's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon. Adding to the Retail economic data, Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Sea Limited (SE) have earnings reports in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq pierced the 21d EMA today but then rallied to close above the key moving average line. The one-day regression trend line points to a gain since most of the day is an uptrend after the morning dip. The trend-line ends with a +0.77% gain for Tuesday. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.64% gain. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.34% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The economic data from China turned the market to a bearish mood this morning. But that mood didn't last long as investors bought the dip, putting money into defensive sectors and big tech. There is still some fear in the market. However, there are not many places for investors to put money other than equities, and it happens that there is a lot of money to be put somewhere these days. The hanging man candlestick within an uptrend signals a possible move lower. Combined with the doji star on Friday, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Market Week in Review - 8/9/2021 - 8/13/2021Summary: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones set new records this week while the Nasdaq struggled with a rotation and indecision from investors. Small caps took a step back while value stocks marched forward. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 9, 2021 Facts: +0.16%, Volume lower, Closing range: 71%, Body: 5% Good: Higher low, small gain on otherwise cautious day Bad: Lower high, indecisive day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Another inside day, indecisive candle with thin body in the upper half Advanced/Decline: 0.67, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-0.58%), VIX (+3.53%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.38%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Energy (XLY -1.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways It was another inside day for the Nasdaq as the market entered the week with caution. The Delta variant of the virus continues to rise while strong employment data is turning the Fed toward more tapering discussion. The combination drove the dollar higher and Treasury prices lower. The Nasdaq ended the day with a small advance, gaining +0.16%. The thin 5% body is in the upper half of the candle which has a lower high and higher high than the previous day. That's the second inside day in a row as the market consolidates before choosing a direction. The closing range of 71% is a positive but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 10, 2021 Facts: -0.49%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, lower volume on decline Bad: Lower low, low closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day made of mostly selling after the morning high. Advanced/Decline: 0.66, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.46%), RUT (+0.20%), VIX (+0.42%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.76%) and Materials (XLB +1.51%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Value stocks were in the spotlight today after the passing of the infrastructure bill in the Senate initiated a rotation into cyclical sectors. The result was new record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.49% loss for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. Three stocks declined for every two advancing stocks. The index attempted a rally in the morning but sold off quickly, resulting in a 71% red body and 24% closing range. The lower wick is longer than the upper wick. The higher high and lower low create an outside day following two inside days. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 11, 2021 Facts: -0.16%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 46% Good: Support at 21d EMA, rally after support creates longer lower wick Bad: Lower high, morning selling after hitting intraday high Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Red body covers upper half of candle, long lower wick covers lower half. Advanced/Decline: 0.83, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.25%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (-4.35%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.41%) and Industrials (XLI +1.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.01%) and Health (XLV -0.99%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Recovery and value stocks helped send the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to yet another record close on the day after the Infrastructure bill made it through the Senate. The Nasdaq closed with a loss of -0.16%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. The index opened up with a short rally to the intraday high and then sold off through the morning until getting support at the 21d exponential moving average before moving higher. The action created a long lower wick underneath a 46% red body and resulted in a 48% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the growth-heavy Nasdaq. Beyond the Nasdaq, there were far more advancing stocks than declining stocks in the US markets. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 12, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 52% Good: Another test with support at 21d EMA, green body over long lower wick Bad: Low A/D ratio, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, green body covers upper half of the candle. Advanced/Decline: 0.49, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.30%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (-0.28%), VIX (-3.05%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.79%) and Technology (XLK +0.57%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.16%) and Industrials (XLI -0.10%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways Jobs data helped boost the markets to more records today with big tech helping lead the way higher. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closed at record highs for the third day in a row. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.35% gain on slightly higher volume than the previous day. The index declined after open but found support at the 21d exponential moving average line and moved higher the rest of the day. The 52% green body covers the upper half of the candle. The rally in the afternoon resulted in a 94% closing range. A lower high and higher low, marks another inside day for the Nasdaq. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 13, 2021 Facts: +0.04%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 4% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Very low A/D ratio, couldn't hold intraday high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive doji star candle with thin red body Advanced/Decline: 0.36, almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (-0.93%), VIX (-0.77%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.83%) at Utilities (XLU +0.70%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.75%) and Energy (XLE -1.18%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways Consumer Sentiment data released this morning was lower than during the height of the pandemic, signaling the public is exhausted from wave after wave of COVID cases. The market didn't overreact to the surprisingly low data, but caution was present with yields dropping and sectors used as defensive investments soaring. The Nasdaq closed with a slight +0.04% gain. Volume was a bit higher than the previous day. The doji star candle has a small thin body sitting in the middle of two equal-length wicks. The candle shows indecision and is often a bearish reversal in an uptrend. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week The S&P 500 and Dow Jones set new records this week while the Nasdaq struggled with a rotation and indecision from investors. Small caps took a step back while value stocks marched forward. The week opened with caution triggered by rising cases of the Delta variant and more reports of full hospital beds around the United States. The result wasn't terrible for the indexes, possibly propped up by a positive jobs report. However, investors focused on defensive sectors for the day. The Infrastructure Bill passing the Senate on Tuesday was the pivotal moment for the week. That set off a two-day rotation back into value and recovery stocks and sent the cyclical sectors to the top of the sector list. It also kicked off four consecutive days of record closes for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Throughout the week, investors balanced worries about the pandemic with positive economic news. Employment data continues to be strong. Inflation is still high but not out of control. The Fed could start tapering earlier than expected. However, that didn't seem a concern during Wednesday's 10-year Treasury Note auction, which showed strong demand. The earnings season continued with primarily positive reports. Just as last week, the reactions to positive and negative earnings news were oversized. Upstart (UPST) soared 45% in three days after earnings. Unity Software (U) rose 20% in three days. Opendoor (OPEN) rose 20% after earnings. On the other hand, Digital Turbine (APPS) lost 6% the day after earnings. Cannabis supply company GrowGeneration (GRWG) sank 30% over the two days after earnings. The rotation snapped back toward big tech on Thursday, but the rally for the Nasdaq dampened on Friday after surprisingly low consumer sentiment data. The data was lower than last summer and at its lowest point in the past ten years. That pushed investors back into Treasuries and defensive sectors heading into the weekend. The Nasdaq declined -0.09% for the week. Volume was lower than the previous week. The closing range of 65% is good as the index successfully tested support at the 21d exponential moving average line twice during the week. On the daily chart, I adjusted a rising wedge that is heading toward 15,000 resistance. As volatility gets tighter approaching the tip of the wedge, the index may break out of the pattern higher, or it may break to the downside. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the week at new records with +0.71% and +0.87% gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -1.10% for the week. The VIX volatility declined -4.33% for the week. Materials ( XLB ) led the sector list for the week, getting a massive boost on Tuesday and Wednesday after the Infrastructure bill passed the Senate. Industrials ( XLI ) also got a boost from the bill. Financials ( XLF ) contented for the top spot, gaining from rising Treasury yields that positively impact performance for the sector. However, yields dropped on Friday, and the sector dropped back to third place. The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples ( XLP ) and Utilities ( XLU ) also ended the week near the top of the list, signaling caution throughout the week as investors worry about rising cases of COVID in the US and around the world. Energy ( XLE ) had a few good days but ended the week in the last place. Yields for the US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasuries all declined for the week. The gap tightened a bit after last week's rise in long-term yields. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices rose. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.28% for the week. The dollar gained throughout the week but fell sharply on Friday after the terrible consumer sentiment data. Silver (SILVER) declined -2.46%, while Gold (GOLD) advanced +0.94%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -0.29%. Timber (WOOD) advanced +2.42%. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +0.12%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +0.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) all had record weekly closes. Apple rose +2.03% for the week. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +1.47%. Microsoft gained +1.17%. Amazon (AMZN) was the only of the largest four mega-caps to lose for the week, declining -1.52% and still testing support at its 40-week moving average line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. All four declined for the week as concerns over the Delta variant continue to rise. Marriott (MAR) had the most significant loss, moving down -5.09% and closing below the 10-week and 40-week moving average lines. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Delta Airlines (DAL) declined -0.95% and -1.04% for the week. Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost -1.88%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). It was another good week for the cryptocurrencies, especially Litecoin (LTCUSD) and Bitcoin Cash (BTHUSD), attempting to catch up with the other two. Litecoin advanced +23.27%, while Bitcoin Cash rose +26.48%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gained +9.85%. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) grew +7.27%. Looking at cryptocurrencies, it's still difficult to read the signals on sentiment. The market is either favoring risk now or looking for stores of value ahead of volatility in equities. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.643. The CNN Fear & Greed Index moved toward neutral throughout the week but was still in the Fear range at the end of the week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index remained about the same at 97.55. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There are a lot of earnings reports, and I won't try to list them all here. Check your portfolio for earnings events to prevent surprises. Monday Manufacturing data from New York will be available before the market open on Monday. Roblox (RBLX), Paysafe (PSFE), Niu Tech (NIU), and Porch Group (PRCH) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Monday. Tuesday Tuesday brings several bits of economic data. Retail Sales data and Industrial Production data are available before the market opens. Business Inventories and Retail Inventories become available after the market opens. The Fed's Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon. Adding to the Retail economic data, Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Sea Limited (SE) have earnings reports in the morning. Wednesday Wednesday's economic data include Building Permits and Housing Starts before the market opens. After the market opens, we'll get an update on Crude Oil Inventories. The Fed will release last month's meeting minutes in the afternoon. Tencent (TCEHY), Nvidia (NVDA), Cisco (CSCO), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), Synopsys (SNPS), and Bath Body Works (BBWI) are some of the earnings reports for Wednesday. Thursday Initial Jobless Claims data will be available on Thursday morning. We'll also get the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index on Thursday. Last month, the New York and Philadelphia indexes showed different readings on manufacturing activity. Applied Materials (AMAT), Estee Lauder (EL), Ross Stores (ROST), Farfetch (FTCH), Kohls (KSS), and Macy's (M) are some of the earnings reports for Thursday. Friday There is not much economic news scheduled for Friday. Deere & Company (DE), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle (BKE) are a few earnings reports to watch on a light day for earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side It's not hard to find bullish signals across the market. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are sitting at record highs with no sign of weakness in the charts. Commodity prices show high demand for resources key to economic growth. The US Treasuries market and Corporate bond markets are both signaling confidence in US companies. For the Nasdaq, it's a bit harder to spot the bullishness since there is such a divide between companies that show strong guidance for the second half of the year and companies showing caution. Looking at the market leaders, we have bullish growth in Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Facebook. And there is plenty of support for companies that continue to deliver despite the changing economic environment. Employment data shows companies continue to get back to business and are hiring workers despite the recent growth in the Delta variant of COVID. And while inflation continues to be high, it's beginning to show signs of slowing, if not pulling back a bit. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The consumer sentiment data released on Friday is the most prominent bearish signal moving into the middle of August. The numbers were lower than last summer at the height of the pandemic. And the numbers are at their lowest in ten years. The sentiment is a reflection of how exhausted the public is with the pandemic. With cases rising again and reports of full hospitals, consumers fear the worst. Could a resurgence in the pandemic shutter the economy again? If so, does the government still have resources to support after spending so much the past year? All eyes and ears will be on the Fed's Jerome Powell as he comments on Tuesday afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq moved sideways this week and continues to form a wedge within an uptrend as it heads toward a psychological resistance point at 15,000. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this last week was a new all-time high at 14,896.47. That's more important than this week's high, which is just under the mark. The round number 15,000 is likely to be a new area of resistance. It is also the upper resistance line of the rising wedge. Break thru that point for another bullish run. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 14,800.63. The 21d EMA is at 14,725.27. 14,692.41 is the low of the past week. Also, a critical level for a break lower from the rising wedge. The 50d MA is at 14,489.15. 14,200 remains a critical level if the index moves downward. 14,000 has been an area of support/resistance. There is a pivot at 13,903.73, which A further pullback would likely hit the 200d moving average at 13,447.36. The index hasn't approached this line since rising above it in April 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Last week we questioned where the market wanted to move next. For the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, the answer was higher. For the Nasdaq, the answer was not sure. That uncertainty showed at the end of the week as well. Friday's daily candle is a bearish doji style candle that marks indecision and a possible reversal from an uptrend. There are both bulls and bears presenting a solid case right now. Keep an eye on your portfolio and make sure stops are up to day just in case things turn bearish. Also, watch out for any earnings events as the reactions have been severe to any bad news. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/13Summary: Consumer Sentiment data released this morning was lower than during the height of the pandemic, signaling the public is exhausted from wave after wave of COVID cases. The market didn't overreact to the surprisingly low data, but caution was present with yields dropping and sectors used as defensive investments soaring. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 13, 2021 Facts: +0.04%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 4% Good: Higher high, higher low Bad: Very low A/D ratio, couldn't hold intraday high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive doji star candle with thin red body Advanced/Decline: 0.36, almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.16%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (-0.93%), VIX (-0.77%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.83%) at Utilities (XLU +0.70%) at the top. Financials (XLF -0.75%) and Energy (XLE -1.18%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer Sentiment data released this morning was lower than during the height of the pandemic, signaling the public is exhausted from wave after wave of COVID cases. The market didn't overreact to the surprisingly low data, but caution was present with yields dropping and sectors used as defensive investments soaring. The Nasdaq closed with a slight +0.04% gain. Volume was a bit higher than the previous day. The doji star candle has a small thin body sitting in the middle of two equal-length wicks. The candle shows indecision and is often a bearish reversal in an uptrend. There were almost three declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) could still close with another set of records. The S&P 500 gained +0.16% while the Dow Jones advanced +0.04%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.93% The VIX volatility index declined -0.77%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list today, with Consumer Staples (XLP +0.83%) and Utilities (XLU +0.70% leading the way. Cyclical sectors did not do well, with Financials (XLF -0.75%) and Energy (XLE -1.18%) sitting at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Export Price Index data was higher than expected, while Import Price Index data was lower than expected. The big surprise was the Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data, which dropped lower than 2020 and the lowest point in a decade. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.51%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields declined for the day. The gap between long and short-term yields tightened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for the third day. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +7.40%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +9.11%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Three of the four largest mega-caps advanced today. Microsoft (MSFT) led the way with a +1.05% gain, closing at another all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose +0.39%. Amazon (AMZN) continues to barely stay above its 200d simple moving average line, declining -0.29%. Pfizer (PFE), Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Microsoft led the mega-cap list today. At the bottom of the list is JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Alibaba (BABA). The daily update growth list had more losers than gainers, but the top gainers did very well. Robinhood (HOOD), DataDog (DDOG), and DoorDash (DASH) all had greater than 3% gains. Snowflake (SNOW) was the fourth best of the day. GrowGeneration (GRWG) dropped almost 12%, moving nearly 30% lower over the last two days. Digital Turbine (APPS), Ehang Holdings (EH), and Enphase (ENPH) round out the bottom four in the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.644. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range, moving toward neutral. The NAAIM exposure index remained about the same at 97.55. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Manufacturing data from New York will be available before the market open on Monday. Roblox (RBLX), Paysafe (PSFE), Niu Tech (NIU), and Porch Group (PRCH) are a few of the interesting earnings reports for Monday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq moved sideways today and gave a bearish signal with a red doji star candle. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.56% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.11% decline. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.38% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The Consumer Sentiment data slowed down the market rally but didn't reverse trends today. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones set new records, the Nasdaq signaled a possible reversal. We'll have to wait until Monday to find out if the signal is confirmed. Investors got cautious heading into the weekend, dropping yields and giving a boost to the defensive sectors. The doji style candle is possibly a bearish reversal signal in an uptrend, but the trend right now is more sideways. It's a weak signal, so the expectation for Monday is set to Sideways, and we let the market tell us what it wants to do. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/12Summary: Jobs data helped boost the markets to more records today, with big tech helping lead the way higher. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs for the third day in a row. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 12, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume higher, Closing range: 94%, Body: 52% Good: Another test with support at 21d EMA, green body over long lower wick Bad: Low A/D ratio, lower high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, green body covers upper half of the candle. Advanced/Decline: 0.49, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.30%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (-0.28%), VIX (-3.05%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.79%) and Technology (XLK +0.57%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.16%) and Industrials (XLI -0.10%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Jobs data helped boost the markets to more records today, with big tech helping lead the way higher. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs for the third day in a row. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.35% gain on slightly higher volume than the previous day. The index declined after open but found support at the 21d exponential moving average line and moved higher the rest of the day. The 52% green body covers the upper half of the candle. The rally in the afternoon resulted in a 94% closing range. A lower high and higher low marks another inside day for the Nasdaq. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed the day with a +0.30% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.04%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell back -0.28%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.05%. Cyclical sectors fell back to the bottom of the sector list after leading for two days. Health (XLV) and Technology (XLK), which were at the bottom of the list yesterday, bounced back to the top of the sector list today. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) were the worst-performing sectors for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Continuing Jobless Claims data was better than expected while Initial Jobless Claims matched the forecast. Produce Price Index Data was higher than expected, adding to inflation worries since higher producer prices eventually get passed along to higher consumer prices. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.11%. The US 30y Treasury yield was flat while the 10y and 2y Treasury yields rose for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced for a second day. Silver (SILVER) declined while Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -3.35%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.91%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced, with Apple (AAPL) leading the way. Apple gained +2.08% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +1.00%. Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +0.67%. All three seem to be getting good support at their 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) tested its 200d moving average line before ending the day with a +0.35% advance. The Amazon chart is still in a clear decline. Salesforce.com (CRM), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Pfizer (PFE) topped the list of mega-caps today, all gaining over 2%. At the bottom of the list are Intel (INTC), Visa (V), Alibaba (BABA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM). The daily update growth stock is about half gainers and half losers. The top gainers were Palantir (PLTR), DraftKings (DKNG), Chewy (CHWY), and Snowflake (SNOW). The worst performing in the list today is NIO (NIO), Robinhood (HOOD), Lemonade (LMND), and GrowGeneration (GRWG). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0.670. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Fear range, moving toward neutral. The NAAIM exposure index remained about the same at 97.55. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Export and Import Price index data will wrap up the week's inflation data, while Consumer Sentiment data will give a reading on how consumers are weathering the resurging pandemic. There are no interesting earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support again at the 21d exponential moving average line. The same line is supporting three of the largest big tech companies as well. The one-day trend line and trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.61% gain for Friday. The five-day trend line ends with a -0.55% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Jobs data shows continued strength in the economic recovery, a positive sign for more growth in the second half of the year. After rotating into Infrastructure stocks the past two days, the market snapped back to the technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq. However, the gains were not broadly shared, with more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock in the index. The chart is still in a downtrend after hitting a record close last week. Today's inside day, with a green body and long lower wick, is a positive. However, there is still an open question on whether the Nasdaq will reverse the trend. The expectation for tomorrow is sideways, and we'll watch where the market wants to go next. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/11Summary: Recovery and value stocks helped send the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to yet another record close on the day after the Infrastructure bill made it through the Senate. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 11, 2021 Facts: -0.16%, Volume higher, Closing range: 48%, Body: 46% Good: Support at 21d EMA, rally after support creates longer lower wick Bad: Lower high, morning selling after hitting intraday high Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Red body covers upper half of candle, long lower wick covers lower half. Advanced/Decline: 0.83, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.25%), DJI (+0.62%), RUT (+0.49%), VIX (-4.35%) Sectors: Materials (XLB +1.41%) and Industrials (XLI +1.30%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.01%) and Health (XLV -0.99%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Recovery and value stocks helped send the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to yet another record close on the day after the Infrastructure bill made it through the Senate. The Nasdaq closed with a loss of -0.16%. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day. The index opened up with a short rally to the intraday high and then sold off through the morning until getting support at the 21d exponential moving average before moving higher. The action created a long lower wick underneath a 46% red body and a 48% closing range. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the growth-heavy Nasdaq. Beyond the Nasdaq, there were far more advancing stocks than declining stocks in the US markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) led the major indexes for another day with a +0.62% gain for another record close. The S&P 500 (SPX) also had a record close, advancing +0.25% today. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.49%. The VIX volatility index declined -4.25%. Cyclical sectors led the sector list for another day, with Materials (XLB +1.41%) and Industrials (XLI +1.30%) performing the best with a boost from the Infrastructure bill progress. At the bottom of the list was Health Services (XLV -0.99%), weighed down by losses from several large vaccine providers. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Inflation data available this morning included no huge surprises. The core consumer price index came in slightly lower than expected. Crude Oil Inventories showed lower demand than forecast. There was good demand for the 10-year Treasury Note auction in the afternoon, helping send yields lower. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.19%. The US 30y Treasury yield was flat while the 10y and 2y Treasury yields declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced after several days of decline. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +0.03%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +0.79%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.18% today as they continue getting support at their 21d exponential moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) is well above the key moving average line but lost -0.39% today. Amazon (AMZN) tested its 200d simple moving average line today and ended the day with a -0.86% decline. Wells Fargo (WFC), Home Depot (HD), Bank of America (BAC), and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) were the top mega-cap gainers today. Pfizer (PFE) declined -3.90% after data showed its vaccine might be less effective against the Delta variant of the COVID virus. Other mega-caps at the bottom of the list include Nvidia (NVDA), Visa (V), and Eli Lilly (LLY). The daily update growth list did a little better than yesterday but was still primarily decliners today. Etsy (ETSY), D.R Horton (DHI), DataDog (DDOG), and RH (RH) were the top four gainers on the list. At the bottom of the list are FUTU Holding (FUTU), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Robinhood (HOOD), and Cloudflare (NET). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio advanced to 0.749. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range, moving toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The Produce Price Index data publishes on Thursday. We'll also get an update of Jobless Claims data that surprised investors last week. Wednesday's earnings reports include Walt Disney (DIS), Airbnb (BNB), DoorDash (DAH), Baidu (BIDU), Palantir (PLTR), Xpeng (XPEV), and LifeMD (LFMD). There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support at the 21d EMA today before recovering some of the morning losses. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +1.00% gain for Thursday. The five-day and one-day trend lines end with a -0.22% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There are no surprises today as the Infrastructure Bill moves investors back into recovery and value stocks, focused on those stocks likely to benefit from the spending bill. The Nasdaq declined for a second day as the rotation pulled people away from growth stocks that make up the index. There were many bullish indicators in the market today. Inflation is not out of control. Earnings reports continue to be strong, with positive outlooks. Demand for 10y Treasury notes remains high. Commodities advanced. Major indexes set record closes. Based on the chart, the Nasdaq got support at the 21d EMA today but is trending downward and may continue moving sideways or lower over the next few days as the current rotation completes. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/10Summary: Value stocks were in the spotlight today after the passing of the infrastructure bill in the Senate initiated a rotation into cyclical sectors. The result was new record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 10, 2021 Facts: -0.49%, Volume lower, Closing range: 24%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, lower volume on decline Bad: Lower low, low closing range Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day made of mostly selling after the morning high. Advanced/Decline: 0.66, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (+0.10%), DJI (+0.46%), RUT (+0.20%), VIX (+0.42%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.76%) and Materials (XLB +1.51%) at the top. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Value stocks were in the spotlight today after the passing of the infrastructure bill in the Senate initiated a rotation into cyclical sectors. The result was new record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.49% loss for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. Three stocks declined for every two advancing stocks. The index attempted a rally in the morning but sold off quickly, resulting in a 71% red body and 24% closing range. The lower wick is longer than the upper wick. The higher high and lower low create an outside day following two inside days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.46%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.10%. Both closed at new records. The Russell 2000 (RUT) also closed the day with a gain, advancing +0.20%. The VIX volatility index advanced +0.42%. The four cyclical sectors led the sector list, with Energy (XLE +1.76%) and Materials (XLB +1.51%) topping the list. Only three sectors declined for the day. Technology (XLK -0.72%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.07%) were the worst-performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Nonfarm Productivity for Q2 as well as Unit Labor Costs was lower than expected. API Weekly Crude Oil stock showed lower than expected demand. The Senate passed the Infrastructure Bill, which had the most significant influence on today's market. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.11%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day. The yield curve continues to steepen. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.43%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -0.79%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.557. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range, moving toward neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day, weighed down by the strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.08% after closing at a new high yesterday. Apple (AAPL) dropped -0.34% while Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.66%. Both tested their 21d exponential moving average lines and found support. Amazon (AMN) declined -0.63% and continues to trade around its 200d simple moving average. Pfizer (PFE) topped the mega-cap list today as the COVID resurgence continues to grow, prompting more demand for vaccines. Walmart (WMT), Wells-Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) filled out the top four mega-caps for the day. Salesforce.com (CRM), Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and PayPal (PYPL) were the worst-performing mega-cap stocks for the day. The daily update growth list had mostly losses today. Top gainers included RH (RH), DoorDash (DASH), Etsy (ETSY), and Cloudflare (NET). At the bottom of the list are MongoDB (MDB), Roku (ROKU), RobinHood (HOOD), and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get another look at inflation data on Wednesday with an update to the Consumer Price Index data in the morning. Crude Oil Inventories will come after the market opens. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon. Nio (NIO), eBay (EBAY), Opendoor (OPEN), Bumble (BMBL), Wendy's (WEN), and Lordstown Motors (RIDE) release earnings on Wednesday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq faded after a quick rally after the market open. The trend from the 7/19 low points to a +0.91% gain for Wednesday. The five-day trend line ends with a +0.37% gain. The one-day trend would put the index just above the 21d EMA with a -0.57% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Infrastructure FTW. Today's passing of the infrastructure bill had investors rotating into value stocks that are sensitive to economic cycles. Tomorrow we'll get new inflation data that may shift investor sentiment further into value or swing them back toward growth. Based on the outside day with a sizeable red body, the expectation for tomorrow is Sideways or Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/9Summary: It was another inside day for the Nasdaq as the market entered the week with caution. The Delta variant of the virus continues to rise while positive employment data is turning the Fed toward more tapering discussion. The combination drove the dollar higher and Treasury prices lower. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 9, 2021 Facts: +0.16%, Volume lower, Closing range: 71%, Body: 5% Good: Higher low, small gain on otherwise cautious day Bad: Lower high, indecisive day Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Another inside day, indecisive candle with thin body in the upper half Advanced/Decline: 0.67, three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.09%), DJI (-0.30%), RUT (-0.58%), VIX (+3.53%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.38%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Energy (XLY -1.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview It was another inside day for the Nasdaq as the market entered the week with caution. The Delta variant of the virus continues to rise while positive employment data is turning the Fed toward more tapering discussion. The combination drove the dollar higher and Treasury prices lower. The Nasdaq ended the day with a small advance, gaining +0.16%. The thin 5% body is in the upper half of the candle, which has a lower high and higher high than the previous day. That's the second inside day in a row as the market consolidates before choosing a direction. The closing range of 71% is a positive signal, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.30%. Both closed at record highs on Friday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.58%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.53%. Only three sectors had gains today, with defensive sectors leading the list. Health (XLV +0.38%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) were the top two sectors. Both sectors got a boost from fears of rising cases of COVID around the world. Financials (XLF +0.26%) was third in the list, benefiting from higher yields on Treasuries. Real Estate (XLRE -0.45%) and Energy (XLY -1.41%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The JOLTs Job Openings report for June came in higher than expected, reinforcing the robust employment data last week. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.20%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +5.33%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.95%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.644. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Only Alphabet (GOOGL) gained for the day, advancing +0.87%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) lost -0.39% and -0.03% but remained above their 21d exponential moving average lines. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.09% and remained below the 21d EMA line and the 50d simple moving average line. Tesla (TSLA), Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Bank of America (BAC) were the top four mega-caps for the day. Accenture (ACN), United Health (UNG), Mastercard (MA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were the worst-performing mega-caps today. FUTU Holdings (FUTU), Fastly (FSLY), UP Fintech (TIGR), and Fiverr (FVRR) were the top stocks of the day in the daily update growth list. At the bottom of the list is Workday (WDAY), Penn National Gaming (PENN), DataDog (DDOG), and Digital Turbine (APPS). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data will be available Tuesday morning, while Weekly Crude Oil Stock will get an update after the market closes. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Coinbase (COIN), Unity Software (U), Upstart (UPST), and Open Lending (LPRO). There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq had its second inside day in a row as it consolidates before choosing a direction. All three trend lines point to a gain for tomorrow in the range from +0.36% for the one-day trend line to a +0.55% gain for the five-day trend line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The market continues to toil with worries of the Delta variant of COVID while data shows a solid economic recovery, especially in the labor market. The rising number of COVID cases raises fears around new lockdowns that could impact the global economic recovery. On the other hand, the recovery in the labor market is a positive sign for the economy. However, it raises concerns around when the Fed will start tapering fiscal support, a topic that is becoming increasingly political. Investors are also watching closely the infrastructure bill, which could reach a vote in the Senate early in the week. Progress on the bill will finally take away some questions around government investment, but then attention will turn toward the $3.5 trillion reconciliation. Today's candle on the Nasdaq chart signals indecision for investors. So an expectation of Sideways tomorrow could turn into a higher or lower move. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week in Review - 8/2/2021 - 8/6/2021Summary: Where does the market want to go next? That is the question to be answered after a week of mixed economic news met with COVID fears and uncertainty around what's happening with the infrastructure bill and government debt. Equity markets set new record highs as Treasury yields rose, setting up a possible pivot for next week. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "View on the Week." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, August 2, 2021 Facts: +0.06%, Volume higher, Closing range: 15%, Body: 74% Good: Higher high, higher low, support at 14,650 area Bad: Could not hold morning highs, low A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks Advanced/Decline: 0.79, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.28%), RUT (-0.48%), VIX (+6.80%) Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.77%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.29%) at the top. Energy (XLE -0.75%) and Materials (XLB -1.21%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways Despite being at a historically high level, Manufacturing activity data was lower than the previous month and lower than expectations. The result was a failed morning rally that took indexes higher before selling off in the afternoon. The only positive holding back more selling was the progress of the Infrastructure bill in congress. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.06% gain on higher volume than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with tiny upper and lower wicks, reflecting the full day of selling after the markets opened higher in the morning. The closing range of 15% is below a 74% red body. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 3, 2021 Facts: +0.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 26% Good: High closing range, long lower wick as bulls come in after morning selling Bad: Lower low, no support at 14,650 Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Small green body above a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.67, three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (-7.40%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.71%) and Health (XLV +1.39%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.41%) and Communications (XLC -0.45%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Investors shrugged off worries of the Coronavirus Delta variant and turned bullish on a robust earnings week. After a morning dip, indexes moved higher, with the S&P 500 getting another record close. Apple and Health stocks led the way. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.55% after testing its 21d EMA in the opening hour. The candle has a long lower wick from the dip, but the index rallied the rest of the day to end with a 99% closing range above a small green body. The candlestick's pattern is a hanging man within an uptrend. Despite the afternoon rally, there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The hanging man and low A/D show the sellers are present in the market even as the indexes rose. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 4, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume higher, Closing range: 59%, Body: 43% Good: Higher high/low, good closing range Bad: Dip after intra-day high, low a/d ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Over half green body, but in the lower part of the candle, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.54, nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.46%), DJI (-0.92%), RUT (-1.23%), VIX (-0.28%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.28%) and Technology (XLK +0.20%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -1.36%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Only two sectors advanced today in a small gain for the Nasdaq while other major indexes took a step backward. Employment data disappointed investors already worried about the impact of the resurgence in the COVID pandemic, while the Fed's Clarida signaled possibly earlier tapering and interest rate hikes. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.13%, but nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The green body covers over half the candle, sitting near the bottom under a longer upper wick. The closing range of 59% is not bad but comes after a pullback from the intraday high on a worsening outlook. Volume was higher than the previous day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 5, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 99%, Body: 84% Good: Large green body, high closing range with good A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body over a small lower wick, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.73, more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+0.78%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-3.84%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.31%) and Energy (XLE +1.13%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.14%) and Health (XLV -0.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The indexes set records again today after the morning jobless report came in better than expected. The anticipation of more positive news in Friday's employment data sent Treasury Yields and US equities higher. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high with a +0.78% gain today. Volume was lower than the previous day. After breaking into a new record level, the index moved sideways for the afternoon before a rally into the close that left the candlestick with an 84% green body and 99% closing range. There were more than three stocks that advanced for every two stocks that declined. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 6, 2021 Facts: -0.4%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 28% Good: Higher low, support after morning rotation dip Bad: Higher volume pullback from all time high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with small red body in upper half of candle Advanced/Decline: 0.84, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+0.53%), VIX (-6.54%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.02%) and Materials (XLE +1.45%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.17%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at new record highs while the Nasdaq pulled back in a rotation from growth to cyclical sectors. Positive employment data in the morning added to the possibility of agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that pushed investors towards the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq declined -0.4% for the day on higher volume than the previous day. The 28% red body is high in the candle, with a longer lower wick than the upper wick, creating a 46% closing range. The lower high and higher low make an inside day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq, but more broadly, gaining stocks outnumbered losing stocks in the NYSE. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week Where does the market want to go next? That is the question to be answered after a week of mixed economic news met with COVID fears and uncertainty around what's happening with the infrastructure bill and government debt. Equity markets set new record highs as Treasury yields rose, setting up a possible pivot for next week. The week began with manufacturing data that showed a slowing economic recovery. While the markets opened with gains, the gains were given back throughout a day of selling. It didn't help that the Delta variant of COVID continues to grow wildly as local governments begin enforcing new rules to help deal with the resurgence in the pandemic. Nonfarm Employment data from ADP on Wednesday came in lower than expected, adding to the worries. That sent yields lower on treasuries and sent indexes lower, although the Nasdaq held onto a gain for the day. That all changed over the next two days. Thursday's weekly continuing jobless claims showed a change in the employment trend, surprising investors and setting up for more positive employment news on Friday. Treasury yields moved higher while the gap between long-term and short-term treasuries widened significantly, bringing back worries from February of a steepening yield curve. The result was a reversal of the big tech and growth trade back into cyclical stocks on Friday. The Nasdaq dropped while the other indexes moved higher, setting more records. Adding to the momentum for cyclicals, the infrastructure bill is making progress in Congress and could see a vote as early as this weekend. There are still hurdles to overcome for the bill, and the government is still dealing with a possibly long fight over the debt ceiling. Investors showed caution throughout the week, and reactions to earnings reports were massive. Solar Edge (SEDG) and DataDog (DDOG) had gains of over 15% following their positive earnings reports and improved guidance. On the other hand, Roku (ROKU) declined -10%, Lemonade (LMND) dropped -13%, Zynga lost -20%, and Fastly fell a massive -25%, after signaling caution for the remainder of the year in their earnings calls. Robinhood (HOOD) hit the headlines as a new meme-stock with huge swings throughout the week. At one point, the recent IPO stock was up 140% for the week. It gave back a lot of those gains but still ended up 56% for the week. The Nasdaq advanced +1.11% for the week, setting a new all-time high on Thursday. The higher high and higher low, as well as the 81% closing range, is a bullish week. However, the long lower wick shows that sellers were still present. On the daily chart, a rising wedge will meet up with additional resistance at 15,000 that may cause a pullback before moving higher. Volume was higher than the previous week. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the week at new records with +0.94% and +0.78% gains. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.97% for the week. The VIX volatility declined -11.35% for the week. Several sectors rallied into the lead throughout the week, but Financials ( XLF ) came from behind to end the week as the top sector. On Friday, the sector added 2% on top of gains earlier in the week. The rally came as employment data was better than expected, sending Treasury yields higher and brightening the prospects for big bank performance tied to the yields. Utilities ( XLU ) enjoyed the top spot on Monday and early Tuesday, rallied again on Thursday, but fell to second place on Friday. The defensive sector shows investors were cautious throughout the week as indexes set new records amidst worries the rising Delta variant might pull back the economic recovery. Health Services ( XLV ) took the lead spot on Wednesday, likely on the view that there will be an increased demand for vaccines and therapies that can handle the resurgence of the pandemic. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) was the only sector to decline this week, putting it at the bottom of the sector list. Yields for the US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasuries all rose for the week. The yield curve steepened for the week, reversing a trend of a tightening gap between long-term and short-term yields. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices declined. The gap between junk bonds and treasury yields widened. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.75% for the week. Much of that gain came on Friday as investors reacted to solid employment data. Silver (SILVER) declined -4.49%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -2.84%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined -7.63%. Timber (WOOD) declined -0.39%. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -2.55%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -0.88% but remains near record highs. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Microsoft (MSFT) had the biggest gain this week, advancing +1.60% as it nears a new all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed the week with a +0.75%, its highest weekly close on record. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.52%, recovering some from last week's massive drop. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.19%. Only Amazon is trading below the 10w moving average. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Three of the four had gains this week. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) soared +6.61% for the week, although it is still well below the 10w and 40w moving average lines. Delta Airlines (DAL) gained +1.05%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) climbed by +0.50%. Marriott (MAR) dropped -3.01% for the week but closed above both moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). Ethereum (ETHUSD) continues to outperform the other three with a +22.00% gain this week. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +10.76%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) and Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) are still trading near or below moving averages despite gaining +9.25% and +8.94% this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.713. The CNN Fear & Greed Index ended the week in the middle of the Fear range after dipping into Extreme Fear earlier in the week. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 97.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead There are a lot of earnings reports, and I won't try to list them all here. Check your portfolio for earnings events to prevent surprises. Monday Next week will open with the JOLTs Job Openings data on Monday morning. BioNTech (BNTX), Trade Desk (TTD), Tyson Foods (TSN), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Chegg (CHGG), Cable One (CABO), Curaleaf (CURLF), Tilray (TLRY), Xpel (XPEL), Rocket Pharma (RCKT), SUMO Logic (SUMO), and Vuzix (VUZI) are some of the companies opening up another busy earnings week with reports on Monday. Tuesday Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data will be available Tuesday morning, while Weekly Crude Oil Stock will get an update after the market closes. Earnings reports for Tuesday include Coinbase (COIN), Unity Software (U), Upstart (UPST), and Open Lending (LPRO). Wednesday We'll get another look at inflation data on Wednesday with an update to the Consumer Price Index data in the morning. Crude Oil Inventories will come after the market opens. There is a 10y Treasury Note auction in the afternoon. Nio (NIO), eBay (EBAY), Opendoor (OPEN), Bumble (BMBL), Wendy's (WEN), and Lordstown Motors (RIDE) release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday The Produce Price Index data publishes on Thursday. We'll also get an update of Jobless Claims data that surprised investors last week. Wednesday's earnings reports include Walt Disney (DIS), Airbnb (BNB), DoorDash (DAH), Baidu (BIDU), Palantir (PLTR), Xpeng (XPEV), and LifeMD (LFMD). Friday Export and Import Price index data will wrap up the week's inflation data, while Consumer Sentiment data will give a reading on how consumers are weathering the resurging pandemic. There are no interesting earnings reports for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Economic data this week suggested businesses are pushing forward with the recovery despite a resurgence in COVID cases due to the Delta variant. That suggests we're learning to deal with the rise in cases through new protocols that allow businesses to stay open and consumers to continue spending. Unemployment is dropping as companies hire back workers to meet demand. An increase in both business and leisure travel is putting a strain on recovering airlines. Consumer debt is growing again. The One Trillion Dollar Infrastructure Bill is making good progress in Congress with just a few issues remaining before it goes to a vote, possibly this weekend or early next week. The passage of the bill will boost several sectors, including renewable energy, communications, materials, and industrials. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side The sudden rise in Treasury yields on Thursday and Friday steepened the yield curve once again. The curve was steadily flattening since hitting its sharpest level in March. While some increase in Treasury Yields is maybe ok, a rapid increase like we saw earlier this year, as Biden took over, would bring back yield curve fears that drove corrections for the Nasdaq in February and April. The rising yields come as the government is beginning a long fight over the government debt ceiling. If the ceiling is met, the government will need to partially or wholly shut down and not issue new treasuries. The result will be volatility in the Treasuries market that will extend to equities that are so stretched at all-time highs that the impact could be a significant correction. Expect lots of caution among investors as the drama plays out in Washington. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq set another all-time high this week but dipped below the 21d EMA in the process. There is a rising wedge pattern that will meet up with expected resistance at 15,000. Watch for a breakout from the wedge in either direction. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was a new all-time high at 14,896.47. The round number 15,000 is likely to be a new area of resistance. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The 10d MA is at 14,766.86. The 21d EMA is at 14,673.64. 14,584.09 is the low of the past week. 14,500 support area was tested this past week and held. The 50d MA is at 14,379.94. 14,200 remains a critical level that would signal a bearish double top. 14,000 has been an area of support/resistance. There is a pivot at 13,903.73, which would be a technical support area if a correction is in order. A further pullback would likely hit the 200d moving average at 13,361.02. The index hasn't approached this line since rising above it in April 2020. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We continue to see these mini-cycles play out where the market rotates through cyclicals, growth, and defensive sectors while it tries to navigate an unchartered recovery from the worst global economic disaster in history. To get an idea of investments moving around, you can look at the sector rotations. I'll also leave with two charts. The first compares Growth to Value performance. It's easy to see the cycles play out here in January, May, and this Summer. As treasury yields move higher, we may see another move toward value investments. The second chart is Small-cap vs. Large-cap stocks. Here, you can see the considerable outperformance of small-caps in the last part of 2020, which played out until Treasury Yields started coming back down in March. With the possibility of more volatility in Treasuries, we may see another base in this chart, if not a turn back to the outperformance of small caps. There are no predictions here. Just observations, watching and learning. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/6Summary: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at new record highs while the Nasdaq pulled back in a rotation from growth to cyclical sectors. Positive employment data in the morning added to the possibility of agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that pushed investors towards the cyclical sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, August 6, 2021 Facts: -0.4%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 28% Good: Higher low, support after morning rotation dip Bad: Higher volume pullback from all time high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day with small red body in upper half of candle Advanced/Decline: 0.84, more declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.17%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+0.53%), VIX (-6.54%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +2.02%) and Materials (XLE +1.45%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.17%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at new record highs while the Nasdaq pulled back in a rotation from growth to cyclical sectors. Positive employment data in the morning added to the possibility of agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that pushed investors towards the cyclical sectors. The Nasdaq declined -0.4% for the day on higher volume than the previous day. The 28% red body is high in the candle, with a longer lower wick than the upper wick, creating a 46% closing range. The lower high and higher low make an inside day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks on the Nasdaq, but more broadly, gaining stocks outnumbered losing stocks in the NYSE. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) set new record closes with +0.17% and +0.41% gains. Small caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed again, adding +0.53% to the index. The VIX volatility index declined -6.54%. Only the four cyclical sectors gained today, with Financials (XLF +2.02%) and Materials (XLE +1.45%) at the top of the list. Real Estate (XLRE -0.17%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.68%) were at the bottom. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Employment data was positive today, with Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment rate coming in better than expected. Consumer Credit was also higher than expected for June, signaling consumer confidence and spending by the public. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced to +0.57% on the solid economic data. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day while the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.80%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.21%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.714. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the middle of the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 97.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined today. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.02% but shows a bullish inside day candle. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.38%. Apple (AAPL) fell -0.63%. Amazon (AMZN) lost -0.92% and is the only of the four to be trading below the 21d exponential and 50d simply moving average lines. Financial companies dominated the top of the mega-cap list, with Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) leading the day with gains. At the bottom of the list are ASML Holding (ASML), Alibaba (BABA), Tesla (TSLA), and Novo Nordisk (NVO). Robinhood (HOOD) ended a volatile first week with an 8% gain to top the daily update growth list today. Fastly (FSLY), Solar Edge (SEDG), and UP Fintech (TIGR) were the other top growth stocks on the list. NIO (NIO), Okta (OKTA), Peloton (PTON), and Zynga (ZNGA) were at the bottom of the list, with Zynga losing almost 20% on a disappointing outlook after beating earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Next week will open with the JOLTs Jon Openings data on Monday morning. BioNTech (BNTX), Trade Desk (TTD), Tyson Foods (TSN), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Chegg (CHGG), Cable One (CABO), Curaleaf (CURLF), Tilray (TLRY), Xpel (XPEL), Rocket Pharma (RCKT), and Vuzix (VUZI) are some of the companies opening up another busy earnings week with reports on Monday. There are many earnings reports next week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new record today and closed near the high. The five-day trend line and the trend-line from the 7/19 low point to a +0.52% gain for Monday. The one-day trend line leads to a -0.24% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up This morning's positive employment data seems to have kicked off another mini-cycle, with the cyclical sectors gaining while growth stocks either paused or pulled back. The rotation could get a further catalyst if the infrastructure bill moves forward over the weekend. The inside day for the Nasdaq is within an uptrend and could result in a continuation of the trend. Expectation for Monday is sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 8/5Summary: The indexes set records again today after the morning jobless report came in better than expected. The anticipation of more positive news in Friday's employment data sent Treasury Yields and US equities higher. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, August 5, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 99%, Body: 84% Good: Large green body, high closing range with good A/D ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body over a small lower wick, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.73, more than three advancing stocks for every declining stock Indexes: SPX (+0.60%), DJI (+0.78%), RUT (+1.81%), VIX (-3.84%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +1.31%) and Energy (XLE +1.13%) at the top. Materials (XLB -0.14%) and Health (XLV -0.41%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The indexes set records again today after the morning jobless report came in better than expected. The anticipation of more positive news in Friday's employment data sent Treasury Yields and US equities higher. The Nasdaq closed at a new record high with a +0.78% gain today. Volume was lower than the previous day. After breaking into a new record level, the index moved sideways for the afternoon before a rally into the close that left the candlestick with an 84% green body and 99% closing range. There were more than three stocks that advanced for every two stocks that declined. The S&P 500 (SPX) also had a record close with a +0.60% advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.78%. Small caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed, contributing to a +1.81% gain for the index. The VIX volatility index declined -3.84%. Financials (XLF +1.31%) benefited from the rise in Treasury Yields, topping the sector list today. Energy (XLE +1.13%) was the second-best sector as the economic outlook brightened. Materials (XLB -0.14%) and Health (XLV -0.41%) were the only two sectors to lose today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Continuing Jobless Claims data was much better than expected, while Initial Jobless Claims were slightly higher than the forecast but in line with expectations. The Trade Balance grew higher than expected. The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.03%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced, and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +3.03%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +3.26%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.632. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved out of Extreme Fear and into the middle of the Fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 97.72. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps advanced today. Microsoft (MSFT) climbed +1.05% as it nears another new all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) increased +0.83%. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.07%. Amazon (AMZN) remains the only of the largest four to trade under moving average lines, and it seems it will take some time to meet up with the averages after last week's gap-down on earnings. Amazon gained +0.63% today. Novo Nordisk (NVO) led the mega-cap list again today. The relatively new mega-cap gained nearly 12% this week. Also at the top of the mega-cap list are Salesforce.com (CRM), Walt Disney (DIS), and Bank of America (BAC). The list is mostly gainers today. The worst performers were United Health (UNH), Alibaba (BABA), Oracle (ORCL), and Pfizer (PFE). Datadog (DDOG) had a massive gain of +15.26% on a great earnings report today. Penn National Gaming (PENN) also pleased investors, gaining +9.09%. Square (SQ) continues the momentum from a recent acquisition announcement, gaining +5.78% today. MongoDB (MDB) rounds out the top four in the daily update growth list. The bottom of the list is quite painful. Fastly (FSLY) and Lemonade (LMND) declined more than 10%, and Fiverr (FVRR) declined 24% on disappointing guidance during earnings calls. Robinhood (HOOD) was at the bottom of the list with a -27.59% reversal from yesterday's huge gain. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data will be available on Friday morning, including Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate. Interesting earnings reports for Friday include DraftKings (DKNG) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT). There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq set a new record today and closed near the high. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.36% gain for tomorrow.. The five-day trend line and trend-line from the 7/19 low point to a flat day of no gain or loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After the jobless report came in better than expected, investors turned back to small-cap growth and value stocks today. If employment data on Friday continues to show a better outlook for the economic recovery, expect additional gains in these stocks that tend to respond to the data. Based on the candle, there is an expectation for higher tomorrow. However, the index has moved sideways or lower on most new record closes. So I'll set my expectation for Sideways or Higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/4Summary: Only two sectors advanced today in a small gain for the Nasdaq while other major indexes took a step backward. Employment data disappointed investors already worried about the impact of the resurgence in the COVID pandemic, while the Fed's Clarida signaled possibly earlier tapering and interest rate hikes. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, August 4, 2021 Facts: +0.13%, Volume higher, Closing range: 59%, Body: 43% Good: Higher high/low, good closing range Bad: Dip after intra-day high, low a/d ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Over half green body, but in the lower part of the candle, longer upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.54, nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.46%), DJI (-0.92%), RUT (-1.23%), VIX (-0.28%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +0.28%) and Technology (XLK +0.20%) at the top. Industrials (XLI -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -1.36%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Only two sectors advanced today in a small gain for the Nasdaq while other major indexes took a step backward. Employment data disappointed investors already worried about the impact of the resurgence in the COVID pandemic, while the Fed's Clarida signaled possibly earlier tapering and interest rate hikes. The Nasdaq ended the day with a +0.13%, but nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The green body covers over half the candle, sitting near the bottom under a longer upper wick. The closing range of 59% is not bad but comes after a pullback from the intraday high on a worsening outlook. Volume was higher than the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.46% after a record close the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.92%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.23%. The VIX volatility index declined -0.28%. Communications (XLC +0.28%) and Technology (XLK +0.20%) were the only two sectors ending the day with gains. Industrials (XLI -1.36%) and Energy (XLE -1.36%) were the worst-performing sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators ADP Nonfarm Employment data for July grew only half the amount expected, raising concerns with investors. However, Services and Non-Manufacturing PMI data came in higher than expected. Crude Oil Inventories showed less than expected demand for oil. The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.23%. The US 30y Treasury yield declined while the 10y and 2y Treasury yields advanced for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined, and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) declined, and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.56%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +9.34%. (Time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.635. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back toward Extreme Fear. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.37%. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.34%. Apple (AAPL) fell -0.28%. Microsoft (MSFT) lost -0.21%. Only Amazon is trading below key moving average lines. Novo Nordisk (NVO), Ely Lilly (LLY), Nvidia (NVDA), and Facebook (FB) were the top mega-cap gainers for the day, all advancing over 2%. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Toyota Motor (TM ), Pepsico (PEP), and Coca-Cola (KO) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list. Robin Hood (HOOD) became the latest meme stock with investors pouring into the recent IPO. The stock gained 50% today. Paycom (PAYC) gained over 10%. Zoom video (ZM) and Etsy (ETSY) fill out the top four in the daily update growth list, with over 6% gains each. Most stocks in the list gained today. The biggest losers were Ehang Holding (EH), Sumo Digital (SUMO), Fastly (FSLY), and Snowflake (SNOW). Roku (ROKU), Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY) all disappointed investors in earnings calls and are trading significantly lower in after hours. Those earnings reports are a sour note in a relatively positive earnings season and may impact sentiment tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Initial Jobless Claims gets an update on Thursday. Let's hope the data reverses today's reaction from July's payroll data. We will also get new Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance data. Novo Nordisk (NVO), Moderna (MRNS), Square (SQ), MercadoLibre (MELI), Cloudflare (NET), DataDog (DDOG), Zillow (Z), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Zynga (ZNGA), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), and Redfin (RDFN) report earnings. Many of these and others not listed had tremendous growth over the past year, and investors will be watching the year-over-year comparisons closely to see if growth continues at the same or similar pace. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq made a small gain today but did not test any critical support or resistance levels. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +0.59% advance for tomorrow. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.38% gain. The five-day trend line points to a -0.35% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Everything was looking good for growth stocks as we continue through an earnings season that is largely positive. However, Investor sentiment may be changing quite a bit after today's economic data and several disappointing earnings reports among growth favorites. Based on the longer upper wick and low advance/decline ratio signaling a weak gain among heavy selling, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 8/3Summary: Investors shrugged off worries of the Coronavirus Delta variant and turned bullish on a robust earnings week. After a morning dip, indexes moved higher, with the S&P 500 getting another record close. Apple and Health stocks led the way. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, August 3, 2021 Facts: ++0.55%, Volume higher, Closing range: 99%, Body: 26% Good: High closing range, long lower wick as bulls come in after morning selling Bad: Lower low, no support at 14,650 Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Small green body above a long lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.67, three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.82%), DJI (+0.80%), RUT (+0.36%), VIX (-7.40%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.71%) and Health (XLV +1.39%) at the top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.41%) and Communications (XLC -0.45%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Investors shrugged off worries of the Coronavirus Delta variant and turned bullish on a robust earnings week. After a morning dip, indexes moved higher, with the S&P 500 getting another record close. Apple and Health stocks led the way. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.55% after testing its 21d EMA in the opening hour. The candle has a long lower wick from the dip, but the index rallied the rest of the day to end with a 99% closing range above a small green body. The candlestick's pattern is a hanging man within an uptrend. Despite the afternoon rally, there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The hanging man and low A/D show the sellers are present in the market even as the indexes rose. The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed 0.82% to close at another record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.80%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained +0.36%. The VIX volatility index declined -7.40%. Energy (XLE +1.71%) and Health (XLV +1.39%) were top gainers for the day. Communications (XLC -0.45%) was the only losing sector for the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators Factory Orders data came in higher than expected, counter to the Manufacturing data that showed a slowdown. The US Dollar (DXY) was about flat for the day. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined for the day. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) advanced, and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) prices declined. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced. Aluminum (ALI1!) had its first decline after several days of advance. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.52%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined 03.84%, its first significant decline in two weeks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.610. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator of overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved out of Extreme Fear, back into the Fear level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, with Apple (AAPL) leading the way with a +1.26% gain. Amazon (AMZN) bounce off 3300 to end the day with a +1.04% gain. Microsoft (MSFT) advanced +0.81%. Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed by +0.58%. Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Oracle (ORCL), and Toyota Motor (TM ) were the top gaining mega-caps today. At the bottom of the list were Visa (V), Alibaba (BABA), Walt Disney (DIS), and Mastercard (MA). Solar Edge (SEDG) blew away the competition in the daily update growth list with a +16.33%. The other top growth stocks in the list were Snowflake (SNOW), Enphase (ENPH), and Pinterest (PINS). The Chinese stocks in the list found themselves at the bottom again, with NIO (NIO), FUTU Holdings (FUTU), UP Fintech (TIGR), and Ehang Holding (EH) losing between -2.8% and -5.8%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Several economic indicators will get updates tomorrow. Mortgage data will be available early in the morning. Then Nonfarm Employment Change data will give an update on the labor market. Purchase Manager Index data for Services will show growth for the services sector, while Non-Manufacturing purchasing manager index data will provide a broader look at economic activity. Finally, Crude Oil Inventories get an update later in the morning. Toyota Motor (TM ), Sony (SONY), CVS (CVS), Booking (BKNG), General Motors (GM), Uber (UBER), Roku (ROKU), Allstate (ALL), Etsy (ETSY), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Fastly (FSLY), Lemonade (LMND), and DermTech (DMTK) are some of the exciting earnings reports for Wednesday. There are many earnings reports this week. Keep an eye out for reports from companies in your portfolio. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq tested the 21d exponential moving average during the morning dip. In that area, bulls came in to buy the index back up and close with a gain. The one-day trend line leads to a +0.98% gain for tomorrow. The trend-line from the 7/19 low ends with a +0.64% advance. The five-day trend line points to a -0.58% loss. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Even the worsening COVID situation doesn't seem to dampen the spirits of investors this week. Much of the impact will come from how the government responds to the pandemic vs. the pandemic itself. After 18 months of dealing with the pandemic, the public has figured out how to continue operating, and the economy keeps going. The hanging man candlestick in an uptrend is a signal of a growing number of sellers. The expectation for tomorrow is sideways or higher. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
The 2022 Tech Bubble Fractals and Sentiment AnalysisIntroduction I was inspired by CryptoKaleo's post (original post below) on the "Next Tech Bubble", where he predicted a tech bubble to take place in the coming years based on the fractals of the 1998-2002 Dot com bubble market price action. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Analysis I myself have been also thinking about the probability of another 2000-esque bull rally for the Nasdaq index for a while now. You can check out my analysis on the comparison between the market in 2020 and the Dot com bubble, which I posted last year: My goal for this post was to not only compare the price action of the two periods through fractals, but also to research the headlines of financial news from the past, in order to more accurately research the sentiment that was reflected on the media. The quotes in red are direct quotes from 1998-2002, and the quotes in black are recent news that reflect the current market sentiment. We can see a clear shift in sentiment; optimism > euphoria > fear > surrender. The most notable parts of the cycle is the euphoria at the absolute top of the market, and sense of despair at the bottom of the market. This figure will further help you understand the structure of a market bubble, and the market sentiment according to the price action of the market. What's extremely interesting is that the Dot com bubble demonstrated a textbook pattern of a market bubble structure. Conclusion There may be multiple news that could potentially trigger the next market bubble. If one were to occur, it's highly likely that we see it happen in the tech/bio sector this time, where insane multiples are given based not on the current financials of the company, but the prospect of it. While there is also a probable case where we don't see a bubble at all, if it we were to see the market make parabolic moves up to overbought levels, referring to fractals of the past, and comparing the market sentiment of the past, could provide a guideline for us to refer to. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
TVC:IXICLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
87