We could have entered a multiyear bullrunWhile all news are full of devastation and fear of ww3, we could be in the first month of a multiyear bullrun
IXIC trade ideas
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
NASDAQ CorrectionNASDAQ strong bearish divergence formed
The correction will look like around 500 to 600 points
The next strong support 15500 . It will be a great entry point for buyers
Other analysts are also suggesting a greater correction till 14500 points but I think in an election year this is not going to be that huge correction but no one knows and who actually knows ?
NASDAQ important levelsNASDAQ important levels identified and a projection of movements also can be seen
ABCD harmonic pattern identified which can indicate a bearish pattern
so there are two strong cases of BEAR
Volume divergence
ABCD harmonic pattern
A correction is expected now and can be one of the levels identified as support
⛳️ POLE TRAGET FOR THE NASDAQMarket Phases and Historical Comparisons:
The chart outlines two main type of moves, labeled "Dips" and "Legs" suggesting a comparison between a past post bear market period and the current market situation.
There are colored boxes representing different market movements: declines (in red) and upward movements (in green), referred to as "Legs" and "Dips."
Historical Bear Market Decline Data:
The table is shows historical bear market declines from 1901 to the present, indicating the index (Dow or Nasdaq), the percentage of the decline, and corresponding recovery phases.
The average decline is noted as 38% for the Nasdaq during bear markets.
The average 1st Leg is 63% (current 43%)
The agerage 1st Dip is -15% (current -13%)
👉 Next potential target for Leg 2 is 29% or 16212, about the old ATH
👉 Rebounding dip afterward is expected to be around -17%
These are just historical precedents and guardrails to help us navigage the marekts.
IXIC - Higher High Double Top Contained within this upward channel a double top could form at the top of this channel, however with it being a higher high we can assume further bullish movement after the double top proceeds.
A higher high suggests there is more steam left in the run. Which evidently there is a lot of steam for the NASDAQ.
Nasdaq years long correctionNasdaq is going to have years long correction. What causes it drops, wars.
Nasdaq Ending Diagonalending diagonal marks the end of the cycle
expect overthrow to occur by March 2024 with subsequent continuation of the bear market
Bottom somewhere in Oct 2025
NASDAQ retest 14500 Nasdaq has broken all the shackles and ready to launch
it will retest the strong level of 14500 which should now become the support . After once or twice retests it shall break 14800 resistance level and go to 15500
easing ahead! nasd composite vs money supply…repeat/rhyme??wondered what the narrative would be for a blowoff top…thought maybe AI, but maybe AI along with easing??
The Digital Economy Ushers in A Long Term Bull Market CycleI received my CMT charter long ago, when chartered market technician candidates could write a thesis that had potential to change the body of knowledge of Technical Analysis. It did and it continues to serve me and my students well.
It was called "Cycle Evolution Theory" and my specialty is in the long-term cycles of emerging displacement technologies that change society, the economy and the stock market.
So this is an especially exciting time in the history of the stock market to be teaching trading and investing, during a major shift I have been preparing my students for over the last few years.
The stock market is rallying to new highs as a NEW Bull Market is underway. There will be minor retracements from time to time, but the long-term uptrend has begun.
The Bull Market Cycles of the past have lasted about 13 years. Cycle experts believe this Bull Market will last longer because there are over 20 new technologies moving into the Market Acceptance Phase all around the same time. It’s not just Artificial Intelligence. Several new technologies are changing the economy of the US to a DIGITAL Economy, the first in the history of all the various economic types.
A Digital Economy derives its primary growth and expansion not from manufacturing, not from consumer buying of products and services, but from the STOCK MARKET. In this new economy, the middle class may get left behind if they don’t learn how to use trading and investments to maintain and build wealth.
See the attached NASDAQ:IXIC NASDAQ Composite Chart that shows the long-term bull market cycles of this index using the DPO indicator on a monthly scale. The Cycles show:
the topping and Peak of the 2009–2020 Bull Market.
a second extreme Peak in 2021 after the speculative run up out of the shortest bear market in history due to the Covid-19 Pandemic.
the intermediate term correction in 2022.
and now a new Trough is completed for the beginning of the next Bull Market.
The Bull Market of the late 1980s to the year 2000 was extremely steep for the NASDAQ, as it had the 6 new technology industry stocks of that time as components.
The Bull Market of 2003–2008 was not a new technology market period but a Real Estate Market boom, so the NASDAQ had minimal gains.
The Bull Market of 2009–2020 was created by the new technology of the Cloud, Platform as a Service (PaaS), Software as a Service (SaaS), the Internet of Everything (IoE), sensors, semiconductors, electronics, and more.
This next Bull Market has 20+ new technologies. When there are new technologies coming to market, there are the best opportunities for trading and investing in the stock market.
PLUS, there is always a silver lining to a global pandemic cycle, and that is the empirical historical fact that after every major pandemic, there is a growth era of new technologies, new social reforms, and new approaches to problems that lead to widespread economic prosperity.
A pandemic is very similar to a World War in its impact on social norms, health, government, the distribution of wealth, education, and individual identity.
Most of the 140 industries in the US financial markets will be impacted by a huge number of displacement technologies. These are far more extensive and disruptive than in the new technology era of the 1980s–1990s.
Learning about these new technologies will help you trade or invest in stocks with knowledge and confidence in the next long-term Bull Market.
How many of the 20+ new technologies coming to market can YOU name?
The stocks of companies who are working on or using these new technologies and that are poised for dominance in the next bull market cycle will have Dark Pool accumulation patterns concentrated at the trough of the next upward cycle. So I've referenced some of the posts where I've featured these patterns below.
Trade Wisely,
Oct/Nov 2023 crashWe are in a temporary bull push on the Nasdaq. However I am sticking my neck out to warn of a possible down turn this fall. See charts. The oscillation is tightening.
Pale Monday is just hours away.We have already had “Black Monday”, the second horse of the Apocalypse. The third horse is Pale.
Top of the world... again.The scale of what is happening cannot be understated.
Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately.
It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds.
Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike.
The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state.
No human, not even ChatGPT can solve paradoxes, it is not suicidal.
This chart is one attempt into clearing the picture.
This exotic chart attempts to calculate the price of equities based on the current state of yield curve inversion. It can help calculate the "absolute" strength of indices like IXIC. Similar calculations can be made using the DXY*IXIC/100 formula. It has reached with incredible accuracy the 1.272 retracement, as shown in the main chart.
In short, the higher this chart goes, the better the QE Machine performs.
The Yield Curve is now showing a clear warning signal.
I have been watching closely the price action, now it is more certain than ever that the yield curve may correct sooner than later. A correction of the yield curve has usually led to severe recessions.
After all of this analysis, still no conclusion about equities...
Occam's razor could be the solution. Clear and simple analysis gives the best results.
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1. Simple Price Patterns.
Sometimes, the simplest answer is the correct one.
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2. Classic Dow Theory.
It dictates that the weakness of the few may lead to the weakness of the many. DJI is the first to show signs of weakness. Will wider indices like SPX weaken?
With bear flags clearly appearing, and an apparent HnS pattern forming, things couldn't get worse. The post-GFC bull market may fail any time now.
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3. The Basis of Stock Market
There is this rule that everybody knows and most forget. Price is split between two areas, above and below average. When price is above average, sellers dictate price. Similarly, when price is below average, buyers dictate prices.
Price is higher than average for a long-long time. It is one of the longest-standing equity bull markets. For many years, equity prices are facing increasing selling pressure and decreasing buying pressure. Why? Because investors progressively cash-out of equities.
There may be too little interest for serious investors to buy into equities. Equities are too expensive and too risky for them to be a viable investment decision. You can find more about investment risk in @SPY_Master 's idea linked below.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. There is much information I may have left out of this idea. I don't want to be repetitive and I try to keep ideas short and clear. You can find more info about the QE Machine in the following idea.
Strong Cup & Handle pattern on the weekly $IXIC chartToday witnessed a robust bullish surge in the Nasdaq with a cup and handle pattern (Very similar on the S&P500 too).
Introduced in 1988 by analyst William O’Neill, the cup and handle pattern signifies a bullish continuation pattern activated by consolidation following a robust upward trend. While the pattern requires time to evolve, its recognition and subsequent trading become relatively straightforward once it materializes. As with all chart patterns, trading volume and supplementary indicators should be employed to validate a breakout and the sustained bullish trajectory.
To validate the pattern, adherence to several rules is imperative:
- The cup with handle pattern must follow a significant bullish movement (Checked: +130% in 87 weeks).
- The lowest trough of the cup must be below 50% of the preceding bullish movement (Checked: -37%).
- The lowest trough of the handle must be below 50% of the cup’s height (checked: -13%).
Key statistics on cup with handle patterns, courtesy of CentralCharts, include:
In 79% of cases, the exit from a cup with handle pattern is bullish.
In 73% of cases, the cup with handle pattern’s price objective is reached (half the cup’s height), after breaking the neck line.
In 74% of cases, after exit, the price makes a pullback in support on the neck line.
In summary, the cup and handle pattern signifies a bullish continuation pattern, initiated by consolidation after a robust upward trend. While its development requires time, once formed, recognition and trading are relatively straightforward. Employing trading volume and additional indicators is crucial for confirming a breakout and sustaining the original bullish price movement.
PS: I think that a perfect cup and handle pattern would be form on the breakout of the 14300 neckline
decade of the crabWe had too much fun and now the bears and bulls are clutched tightly in a yellow pincer. The only question is, when will it let go.
Trade this decade like a range until proven otherwise.
IXIC bond yield and war panic, will reverse soonInvestors are scared by the seemingly never-stopping bond yield rally and US bond crash. The expected Israeli ground offensive has been delayed, creating more uncertainty and selling pressure.
As US10Y and AGG have started dropping since 26 Oct 2023, IXIC is poised to recover when investors realise that the bond yield rally is not infinite and holding 100% bond 0% stock is irrational. The recent IXIC correction is unusual as the most common cause of panic, recession is not a major concern. US GDP grows much faster than EU and Russia and unemployment is steady. As bond yield is the only major concern, the downtrend will reverse soon.
SPX displays the descending wedge pattern, which indicates a reversal soon. All indicators point to Thursdays 26 Oct 2023 as the top of investor panic and the real bottom of stock price.
Technicals give to a Bullish MarketIf we can fall a little bit more about to 12,000, into the support trendiness, we can rally then proceed to rally hard into the 20'000s.
IXIC bubble scenario part 2In this trading chart analysis, we delve into the potential bubble scenario surrounding the IXIC (NASDAQ Composite Index). This examination is a continuation of our previous assessment, 'Bubble Scenario NASDAQ Composite,' focusing on the evolving economic landscape and its impact on the stock market.
The prevailing conditions, characterized by prolonged high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures, have instigated concerns about an impending economic slowdown. The impact of these economic challenges is twofold: first, the prospect of a substantial contraction in economic activity, and second, the likelihood of a wave of corporate layoffs as companies face increasing costs and reduced access to cheap capital for expansion and investment.
One key element of our analysis is the notion that IXIC may have recently encountered a significant bull trap. A bull trap occurs when there is a deceptive rally in the market, enticing investors to enter long positions before a subsequent reversal. This has raised questions about the sustainability of the recent market upswing.
Furthermore, our forecast suggests that the previous lows, residing around the 10,000 mark, could be revisited within the next year. This potential correction could be as substantial as 60%, indicating a bearish sentiment. Such a correction would signal a profound shift in market dynamics.
To provide some context, the analysis posits that the Federal Reserve (FED) may only consider revising its monetary policy stance, including interest rate cuts, once the economy undergoes a substantial period of pain. Such pain could manifest through economic contractions and market corrections. Historically, central banks, including the FED, have used interest rate cuts as a stimulus tool during economic downturns.
In summary, this trading chart analysis paints a picture of a potential bubble scenario in IXIC, which is intertwined with broader economic challenges. The assessment of a bull trap, the anticipation of revisiting previous lows, and the significant projected correction all hint at a cautious and bearish outlook. However, it's vital to remember that market predictions are inherently uncertain, and numerous variables can influence market behavior. Consequently, investors should exercise prudence and consider expert advice when making investment decisions based on such analyses.
Please also check out my previous idea where I warned for a bubble scenario (2022).
$NASDAQ:IXIC descending Channel, will lose 200 MA2 tech giants published negative quartarly reports; Meta & Google. Nasdaq is about to lose the 200 MA for the first time since march 2023. S&P 500 broke the 200 MA support today and Dow Jones had already lost the 200 MA last week. Vix is back above 20. The macro conditions are not improving and the Fed has the markets in suspense as it signals yet another rate hike. If all that is not enough, rising geopolitical tensions has investors on edge. Get your popcorn for the fire works show.
If the pattern is impulse! It is confirmedGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
