decade of the crabWe had too much fun and now the bears and bulls are clutched tightly in a yellow pincer. The only question is, when will it let go.
Trade this decade like a range until proven otherwise.
IXIC trade ideas
IXIC bond yield and war panic, will reverse soonInvestors are scared by the seemingly never-stopping bond yield rally and US bond crash. The expected Israeli ground offensive has been delayed, creating more uncertainty and selling pressure.
As US10Y and AGG have started dropping since 26 Oct 2023, IXIC is poised to recover when investors realise that the bond yield rally is not infinite and holding 100% bond 0% stock is irrational. The recent IXIC correction is unusual as the most common cause of panic, recession is not a major concern. US GDP grows much faster than EU and Russia and unemployment is steady. As bond yield is the only major concern, the downtrend will reverse soon.
SPX displays the descending wedge pattern, which indicates a reversal soon. All indicators point to Thursdays 26 Oct 2023 as the top of investor panic and the real bottom of stock price.
Technicals give to a Bullish MarketIf we can fall a little bit more about to 12,000, into the support trendiness, we can rally then proceed to rally hard into the 20'000s.
IXIC bubble scenario part 2In this trading chart analysis, we delve into the potential bubble scenario surrounding the IXIC (NASDAQ Composite Index). This examination is a continuation of our previous assessment, 'Bubble Scenario NASDAQ Composite,' focusing on the evolving economic landscape and its impact on the stock market.
The prevailing conditions, characterized by prolonged high interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures, have instigated concerns about an impending economic slowdown. The impact of these economic challenges is twofold: first, the prospect of a substantial contraction in economic activity, and second, the likelihood of a wave of corporate layoffs as companies face increasing costs and reduced access to cheap capital for expansion and investment.
One key element of our analysis is the notion that IXIC may have recently encountered a significant bull trap. A bull trap occurs when there is a deceptive rally in the market, enticing investors to enter long positions before a subsequent reversal. This has raised questions about the sustainability of the recent market upswing.
Furthermore, our forecast suggests that the previous lows, residing around the 10,000 mark, could be revisited within the next year. This potential correction could be as substantial as 60%, indicating a bearish sentiment. Such a correction would signal a profound shift in market dynamics.
To provide some context, the analysis posits that the Federal Reserve (FED) may only consider revising its monetary policy stance, including interest rate cuts, once the economy undergoes a substantial period of pain. Such pain could manifest through economic contractions and market corrections. Historically, central banks, including the FED, have used interest rate cuts as a stimulus tool during economic downturns.
In summary, this trading chart analysis paints a picture of a potential bubble scenario in IXIC, which is intertwined with broader economic challenges. The assessment of a bull trap, the anticipation of revisiting previous lows, and the significant projected correction all hint at a cautious and bearish outlook. However, it's vital to remember that market predictions are inherently uncertain, and numerous variables can influence market behavior. Consequently, investors should exercise prudence and consider expert advice when making investment decisions based on such analyses.
Please also check out my previous idea where I warned for a bubble scenario (2022).
$NASDAQ:IXIC descending Channel, will lose 200 MA2 tech giants published negative quartarly reports; Meta & Google. Nasdaq is about to lose the 200 MA for the first time since march 2023. S&P 500 broke the 200 MA support today and Dow Jones had already lost the 200 MA last week. Vix is back above 20. The macro conditions are not improving and the Fed has the markets in suspense as it signals yet another rate hike. If all that is not enough, rising geopolitical tensions has investors on edge. Get your popcorn for the fire works show.
If the pattern is impulse! It is confirmedGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
The NASDAQ Double Top Is Beginning Two smaller double tops encapsulated by a larger overall double top
As you can see the dip is already beginning from the second double top
Linking a relevant analysis below
🟥 Divergence on NAS vs Stocks above 200D - cautionI have spoken about this since begining of the year but now it materializes nicely.
The market has never survived narrow niche rallies and this has never been the characteristic of a bull market.
As you see the Nasdaq Composite has started to pull as the percent of stocks above their respective 200 D Moving average is well below 40%. To be confident that we are really oversold I would like to see the TVC:VIX go to above 25 on this pullback.
Caution is advised.
IXIC Bearish SeptemberNASDAQ is forming a potential head and shoulder pattern
The neck line of this shoulder is 13247
If it goes below that or the daily candle close below that level that means the bearish trend will start
Looking @ DXY also it seems it is coinciding as usual with the potential down turn of the market .
20 Sept is the Fed event and that can bring the news to push the market down
The strong support level is 12289 level
Anything around 12k area should be a strong buy as the bound from this level would be amazing,
NASDAQ COMPOSITE, Feigned FRAGILE UPTREND, Ready for A DROP!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about the NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX on the 2-day timeframe perspective. The NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX is the biggest listed index at the NASDAQ listing 3.000 important companies of the tech sector. The index recently is slowly recovering in a more or less fragile uptrend as stagflation developments are moving on while continued rate hikes by the FED are holding the price-action back from expanding into a stronger healthier uptrend. Now as inflation already decreases this does not mean that it converts into the real price action immediately with businesses recovering from high inflation rates going over into the financial markets immediately. In such periods it is much more common that the production, price-levels, and earning levels remain much more fragile setting the real price action up for more volatilities.
From a technical perspective the index is now building this huge ascending-wedge-formation in which the index simultaneously forms this wave-count with the next waves to endure and move directly into strong resistance levels from especially determined by this main descending-resistance-line. Once the index completed the wave-count within the wedge and also moves into the decisive resistance this will set the index up for a larger pullback completing the wedge and continuing to form the wave C in this whole wave-count. Now this does not mean there is no hope for a reversal to emerge however in this case the first target-zone and the reaction to it as marked in my chart will show if the index can stabilize in this area or prints further lows.
Thank you everybody for watching. It will be great when you support my idea and we move on forward together.
"Labor to keep alive in your breast that little spark of celestial fire, called conscience."
VP
Investing vs Trading: A Comparative AnalysisHello, money enthusiasts! Whether you're a Wall Street wolf or a Main Street newbie, today we're diving into the exhilarating world of finance to dissect two popular money-growing strategies - investing and trading. So, sit back, relax, and prepare to soak up some knowledge!
The Basics
Let's kick things off with some simple definitions. Think of investing as adopting a kittens. It requires time, patience, and care, but over the years, the bond strengthens and becomes incredibly rewarding.
On the flip side, trading is like pet-sitting. You look after someone else's pet for a short while, enjoy the perks, and then move on to the next one. It's all about quick interactions and constant change.
Risk & Reward: The Financial Tango
In the world of finance, risk and reward are partners, always moving together. Investing often involves lower risk and lower returns over a long haul. It's a slow waltz where you glide along with the rhythm of the market.
Trading, however, is a fast-paced salsa. It's high risk, high reward, and you need to keep up with the tempo. The possibility of quick gains is exciting, but remember - one misstep can lead to a financial tumble.
Time Commitment: Marathon vs Sprint
Investing is like running a marathon. Once you've done your research, picked your stocks (your training plan), and invested, you can pace yourself and wait for the finish line.
Trading, in contrast, is a series of sprints. It demands constant attention, quick decisions, and the stamina to keep going. You need to be on your toes, ready to sprint when the starting gun fires.
Skills & Knowledge: Driving vs Racing
Investing generally requires a basic understanding of a company’s fundamentals, kind of like driving a car. You know the basics, you follow the rules, and you get to your destination safely.
Trading, however, is like racing. It requires an in-depth understanding of market trends, technical analysis, and financial charts. You need to know your vehicle inside out, anticipate the moves of other drivers, and make split-second decisions.
Emotion & Stress: Meditation vs Thrill Ride
Investing is akin to a meditation session. It's slow, steady, and although it might seem boring at times, it's beneficial in the long run.
Trading, on the other hand, is like a thrill ride. It's exhilarating, nerve-wracking, and requires a strong stomach. But for some, the thrill is part of the appeal!
In conclusion, whether you choose to invest or trade depends on your risk appetite, time commitment, knowledge level, and how much excitement you want from your money. Neither approach is inherently better—they're just different strategies to reach financial growth.
So, are you the patient pet owner, nurturing your investment over time? Or are you the dynamic pet-sitter, always looking for the next opportunity? Whichever path you choose, remember to stay informed, stay calm, and may your financial journey be prosperous. Happy money managing!
Nasdaq 2000 top vs Current Market.As Rektember draws to a close
The seasonal's actually point up for Q4
Santa Rallies are real market phenomenons!
But is this time is different? Could we have actually topped??
Compared to the tech wreck of 2000
You can see the initial drawdown was around minus 40% from the top
We then got a mini bull run, a recovery wave.
About the same 40% in an upward reversal move.
The 2000 downdraft and recovery occurred over a shorter time frame than what has transpired so far today..
The current market structure has more volume / price action that has taken place below current prices.. This in theory should provide more support.
The market was caught off guard regarding the Fed wanting to stay higher for longer
(I'm not sure why!)
... and seemed to have been pricing more aggressive rate cuts sooner in 2024
This could cause a repricing of risk and expectations.
Chamath Palihapitiya has told his CEO's to have adequate cash into 2025, but has revised his thinking and expects they need to have enough cash to get them through to 2026!
If more captains of industry come around to this way of thinking... the ways to generate cash on hand is to withdraw from spending and possibly laying off extra capacity in the workplace!
You see how this thinking feeds on itself and into the broader economy...
If we look back in a few years time and 2022 did prove itself to be the manic top... and there is plenty of evidence it was, in terms of sentiment and broad retail involvement (dog coins , meme stocks, NVIDIA at PE way north of 100)
WE shouldn't be too surprised!
NASDAQ Heading towards 14000NASDAQ Composite took demand zone at 13626-13705 and now heading towards 14000, unless any news surprises us
NASDAQ, Penetrates Key Upper-Boundary, Upcoming Perspectives!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
the NASDAQ in recent times as I discovered is showing up with some interesting signs in the structure as there remain important resistances it can also not be kept from the desk that there is a potential to see a determined continuation of the previously established uptrend therefore however the NASDAQ needs to show decisive price-action in which it has the ability to breakout above this main ascending-channel-formation I discovered recently. When this is the case and the NASDAQ manages a sustainable breakout with an increase of spread and volatility this can lead to great upcoming potentials in the structure and activation of further targets, therefore I detected all the important levels and likely destinies we should consider.
As when looking at my chart we can watch there how the NASDAQ developed this massive ascending-channel-formation in which it has two significant zones, the first is the lower accumulation range and the second is the higher distribution range. Furthermore, the NASDAQ has the coherent wave-count within the channel in which it already completed the waves A to C in the structure and is now approaching the distribution range once again which is a very likely origin of wave D to the downside as the distribution will follow-up here. This wave D will then move on to test the lower accumulation range marked in green which is an important zone to hold and back up for the NASDAQ.
Taking all these factors into the consideration it will be highly important on how the NASDAQ continues within this channel-formation, when it moves on with the wave-count as expected and completes it to finally show up with further bullish demand-increase this can lead to a dedicated upside-breakout sooner or later in which NASDAQ will provide the right setup for a wave-E-extension to the upside with increased spread and volatility as it is seen in my chart. For now it will be important on how the NASDAQ moves on with the developments especially with the incoming distribution when this shows up as expected the further assumptions can be made, it will be an interesting journey to come.
In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about the NASDAQ and this massive ascending-channel-formation, the coherent wave-count, and what exceptional determinations we should expect in the upcoming times, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best!
Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
NASDAQ, Ready To Make Another Leg Up Into Possible Short-Zone!Hi Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this update about NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 4-hour timeframe perspective, it is currently the only index which is way above its established pre-corona all-time-high and moving higher in the range, but there are some signals which can indicate minimum a pull-back to remaining support when the upside targets fully worked out.
Looking at my chart you can watch that the NASDAQ moving in two ascending channels, one big channel, and one small channel. Currently, the index forming a wave count in the smaller channel where a wave to the upside remains which can be traded to the suggested zone you can watch marked in my chart, there the index will approach the upper boundary both of the small and big channel where a pull-back is likely not only why the wave-count is ending but also why the NASDAQ is overbought in RSI conditions as you can see it in my chart. Therefore the red zone marked can be a possible short-entry zone between 11620 and 11800 when this confirms the index can move below the lower boundary of the small channel which will activate the targets at the 80- and 50-EMA marked in black and green together with the lower boundary building a coherent support-cluster where stabilization is possible.
What is important to note here that when the index falls below the lower boundary this will follow up with increased bearish pressure to the downside in this case the lower boundary definitely needs to behold when considering any continuation upward. In comparison to the SPX the NASDAQ is currently one stronger index but this can also change.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best!
"Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities not certainties."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Flat & Upside . . . Big CorrectiveGreetings everyone,
I hope you all had a successful week with profitable trades. I am pleased to share with you my ideas created through the application of the Elliott Wave Principle. It is important to make informed decisions and exercise patience in all your transactions.
Please refer to the chart for relevant details.
I am grateful for your ongoing support and look forward to our continued journey together.
Respectfully yours,
(Mr. Nobody)
IXIC - How I Think The Nasdaq Will Play OutMy current thoughts on the Nasdaq and correlating American markets.
I expect a higher high within this large broadening structure, followed by a large bear run for a few years. During this period it would be optimal to switch to rare metals (gold,platinum,silver) and also crypto as a hedge during these turbulent times.
Following this I expect a huge bullrun. But try capitalize on the bear movement.
Nasdaq Extremely UV (Not like 2002) Again Check The M2 Supply
I see people posting comparisons of the NDX 100 from 2000 comparing it to 2023.
Its nothing alike people are still short waiting for a "collapse" that will never come due to the fact the USM2 is debasing and offsetting the actual index.
I'm shocked not even the "experts" on Youtube or Twitter explain this to new people coming into the markets. Because they don't even understand this either.
The Nasdaq is not going to collapse its extremely undervalued right now.
NAsdaq Bearish Bump aheadNASDAQ is forming a potential head and shoulder pattern
The neck line of this shoulder is 13247
If it goes below that or the daily candle close below that level that means the decent will start
Looking @ DXY also it seems it is co-inciding as usual with the potential down turn of the market .
20 Sept is the Fed event and that can bring the news to push the market down
The strong support level is 12289 level
Anthing around 12k area should be strong buy as the bound from this level would be amazing
PerspectiveWhen in doubt, zoom out. Never rush into conclusions.
And when a chart troubles you, change your perspective.
The majority of ideas posted here were ultra-bearish when Bitcoin reached 16k levels.
The majority of ideas posted here were ultra-bearish when SPX reached 3.5k levels.
The trader's were not to blame. The charts were dreadful. And everybody agreed.
Because everybody was looking only at price levels.
Nobody looked the chart from a different perspective.
And almost everybody was wrong.
And just like that, everything made sense.
I have been working on a new KST-Based MACD indicator, a successor to the one I posted.
This new indicator is warning us about Bitcoin...
And if we get some perspective:
We are warned about equities as well...
But there is no one single perspective:
Bearishness in equities is a complex conversation...
I have talked many many times about the late 1980s.
This is what we may be witnessing with equities right now...
Equities are not inherently problematic.
It is just that some of them may outperform others...
While Buffett may be right, his sayings may take many years to play out.
Don't forget to stay calm and be patient.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Extra Chart: The 1986-1994 period comes up again.
I've come to be a gold hater...
NASDAQ COMPOSITE, Bounce on BULLISH MARKET, TARGETS ACTIVATED!Hello There!
Welcome to my new Analysis about the NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX. The index recently showed up with an important bullish inclination and bouncing in the range. Now, a big question is if the index has potential to continue with this rally. Mainly, the index bounced because of eased inflation data with the CPI decreased for the period. An ordinary driver of the initial bullish boost is also the increased Personal Consumption Expenditures of over 4% adding up to the overall consumption and therefore also the money flows into the index price-action. The FED could turn their policies into a more dovish condition which could ease further money flows into the capital market. Furthermore, I have detected important technicals in the data dashboard to consider in the current and upcoming market.
As when looking at my chart now the index completed a massive descending triangle formation with an exceptional bounce and confirmation above the upper boundary setting up the rally with which the index now emerged. The index is still trading above several support-zones namely the broader ascending trend-line, the local ascending trend-line, the 65-EMA in green, and the local support zones. What is also so important here, and what is adding up to this overall bullish structure is the fact that the NASDAQ completed this major RSI Inverse Head-And-Shoulders Pattern with an appropriate breakout and is now aiming higher as this is what the RSI is doing after completing such a pattern. Always when the RSI has completed such an strong pattern this means that there is a lot of room for both the RSI and the price-action to continue into the bullish spheres.
With completion of the bullish RSI pattern and the descending-triangle-formation the index is on the right track for the continuations and has now activated the upper target-zones as they are marked in my chart. When considering this dynamic is has to be mentioned that once the final target-zones have been reached and the index continues with the right bullish momentum and has the potential to stabilize within this upper level there is a high possibility likelihood given that a bullish continuation is going to setup once the index has formed the breakout into the bullish continuation-zone as the zone is marked in my chart. Especially with a further positive development within the inflation data outlooks this is likely to boost a bullish perspective here. This in combination with the technical approach can lead to major developments into this direction and therefore we are putting the symbol on our watchlist and re-evaluate the situation once further information comes in.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support is greatly appreciated, all the best!
VP
