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Daily Market Update for 6/11Summary: The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 11, 2021 Facts: +0.35%, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Body: 61% Good: 100% closing range with good advance/decline ratio Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Short lower wick under green body, no upper wick Advanced/Decline: 1.2, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.04%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-2.79%) Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The gains in equities were small but steady through this week. On Friday, the market rallied into close and headed into the weekend with a confidence boost. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.35%, capping a week of gains that saw every day reach higher than the previous day. Volume was lower and faded in the last three days. Today's candle ended with a 100% closing range, thanks to a rally in the final 30 minutes of the session. The small lower wick is under a 61% green body. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.19%, closing the week near a new all-time high set yesterday. The Russell 2000 (RUT) advanced +1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.06%. The VIX volatility index dropped another -2.79%., its lowest close in over a year. Financials (XLF +0.64%) and Technology (XLK +0.60%) were top, with growth stocks helping drive gains. Real Estate (XLRE -0.63%) and Health (XLV -0.71%) were at the bottom of the list after topping the sector list yesterday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) climbed +0.50%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields climbed slightly after declining for several days. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices continued to advance. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced, Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose +1.73%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.82%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.558. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved to the greed side but still near neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 79.65. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) gained +0.98% and +0.25% today. While Microsoft is above its 21d EMA and 50d MA, Apple is still below the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.08% after a big gain yesterday, bringing the stock above the key moving average lines. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.20%. Nvidia (NVDA), Adobe (ADBE), Apple, and Intel (INTC) topped the mega-cap list, helping to boost tech stocks. At the bottom of the list were Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), suffering from a sell-off in the Health sector. Exxon Mobile (XOM) also showed up in the bottom four. UP Fintech (TIGR) and NIO (NIO) topped the daily update growth stock list. Both are Chinese companies. Peloton (PTON) and DoorDash (DASH) were in the top four of the list, which is mostly gainers for the day. At the bottom of the list were DraftKings (DKNG), Snowflake (SNOW), RH (RH), and Chewy (CHWY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news scheduled for Monday. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index stayed above 14,000 today, helping build support at that level. The five-day trend-line points to a +0.31% gain for Monday. Following the trend-line from the 5/13 low would result in a +0.09% gain. The one-day trend line points to a slight -0.07% regression on Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a great way to end the week with a 100% closing range on the daily and weekly charts. We got used to big swings to the upside in 2020 and early 2021. The gains we see now are slow and steady. Nevertheless, those gains are welcome and show deliberate investments vs. overly bullish gains from fear of missing out. Looking forward to next week, watch for the producer price index data on Tuesday and the Fed comments and meeting minutes on Wednesday as critical moments for the market. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/10Summary: Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 10, 2021 Facts: +0.78%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 68% Good: High closing range, close above 14,000 Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, mostly green body with a longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.66, Three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.47%), DJI (+0.06%), RUT (-0.68%), VIX (-10.0%) Sectors: Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) were top. Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Consumer price data was higher than expected, but not that high. After an initial premarket reaction, the major indices moved higher on the day while yields continued their drop and volatility moved out of the market. The Nasdaq advanced +0.78% on lower volume and closed above 14,000. The candle is mostly green body with a short lower wick and even shorter upper wick. The high closing range of 91% and body of 68% is bullish, but there were three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks and volume overall was lower. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.47%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) only advanced +0.06%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back with a -0.68% decline. The VIX volatility dropped -10.00%., its lowest close in over a year. Health (XLV +1.71%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.02%) topped the sector list. Utilities (XLU +0.66%) was also in the top four. These three sectors at the top of the list would indicate caution in the market. However, mixed in to that is Technology (XLK +0.74%) and Communications (XLC +0.54%). Materials (XLB -0.60%) and Financials (XLF -1.17%) were the bottom sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) dropped -0.09%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields continued to decline. The spread between long term and short term yields tightened to levels in early March. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.85%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.35%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.600. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined slightly to 6.95. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (AAPL) is the only one of the four largest mega-caps to decline today, with a -0.80% loss, and remaining below the 50d MA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.09% and moved above its 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.44% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gained +1.13%. Both Microsoft and Alphabet are trading above the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Adobe (ADBE), Eli Lilly (LLY), ASML Holding (ASML) and PayPal (PYPL) were the top four mega-caps. Most mega-caps gained for the day. At the bottom of the list were Apple, Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Oracle (ORCL). RH (RH) was the top daily update growth stock with a 15.67% gain thanks to a great earnings beat. CrowdStrike (CRWD), DoorDash (DASH), and Service Now (NOW) were the other growth stocks to top the list. Ehang Holdings (EH), GrowGeneration (GRWG), UP Fintech (TIGR) and Lemonade (LMND) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead We'll get the first consumer sentiment and expectations data for June after the market opens on Friday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index was able to close above the 14,000 line today. All three trend-lines are pointing to a the range between a +0.10% and +0.41% gain for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a nice advance for the Nasdaq today. However, there is some weakness in the volume and breadth of gains across stocks in the index. The defensive sectors at the top of the sector list is also a reason for some pause. Investors do not seem to be in agreement on whether the consumer price data was good news, or bad news, or no news. We'll look for a continuation of higher tomorrow to confirm the direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/9Summary: The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 9, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 5%, Body: 71% Good: Higher high, higher low, low above Monday's high Bad: Could not stay above 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly red body, no lower wick, short upper wick Advanced/Decline: 0.86, More declining stocks than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.18%), DJI (-0.44%), RUT (-0.71%), VIX (+4.92%) Sectors: Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%) were top. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The major indices bounced around today while investors await inflation data released by the Labor Department tomorrow. A dip in Treasury yields helped boost some large mega-caps and growth stocks, but stocks in the Nasdaq did not share the gains broadly. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.09% decline after briefly rising above 14,000 for the first time since early May. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle is mostly red body with a closing range of 5%. The upper wick formed just after the open. The index approached 14,000 again in the early afternoon but reversed after the 10y note auction. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.71%, the first decline in four days. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -0.44%. The VIX volatility gained +4.92%. Investors moved back into Health (XLV +0.97%) and Utilities (XLU +0.89%), sending them to the top of the sector list. The defensive move is probably to protect against reactions to inflation data on Thursday. Financials (XLF -0.94%) and Industrials (XLI -1.02%) were the bottom sectors. Materials (XLB -0.78%) also was near the bottom of the list. It's looking less likely that Biden's infrastructure plans will move forward as initially presented. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) remained at its current level. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined for a second day. The 2y yield also fell, but the spread between long-term and short-term yields tightened. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) advanced, Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) declined, Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 11.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gained +3.76%. (At the time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.487. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps gained for the day, possibly helped by the lower treasury yields and easing inflation fears. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) could not close above their 50d MA despite gains of +0.31% and +0.52%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.40% and are above the key moving average lines. Novartis (NVS) slipped into the mega-cap list with a 202b market cap after a +2.83% gain today. Also at the top of the list were Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Abbvie (ABBV), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), all in the Health Sector. Netflix (NFLX), Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), and Alibaba (BABA) were at the bottom of the list. UP Fintech (TIGR), MongoDB (MDB), SNAP (SNAP), and Moderna (MRNA) topped the daily update growth list. There were more losers than gainers in the growth list. The biggest losers were (RH), Fiverr (FVRR), Ehang Holdings (EH), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU). RH is back up over 6% after hours on a great earnings report. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Economic news on Thursday includes the OPEC Monthly Report early in the morning. Core Consumer Price Index data gets released before the market open. Initial Jobless Claims also gets its weekly update. In the after, the Federal Budget Balance for May will be made available. On Thursday, the only significant earnings report for the daily update is Chewy (CHWY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index briefly topped 14,000 but then moved lower again. The five-day trend-line points to a +1.26% gain on Thursday. The trend-line from the 5/13 low ends with a +0.66% gain. The one-day trend-line leads to a -0.12% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up So we wait. The consumer price index data will be out in the morning, and investors can decide how bad it looks. We can expect changes in currencies, bonds, and equities depending on the reaction. Based on the chart and the resistance at 14,000, the expectation is for sideways or lower. If the pricing data does not raise inflation fears, that could be the expectation breaker we need and the catalyst to get the index back up above 14,000. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Triple Top and end of the longest (debt fueled) Bull Market?"What Is a Triple Top? The triple top is a type of chart pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal in the movement of an asset's price. Consisting of three peaks, a triple top signals that the asset may no longer be rallying, and that lower prices may be on the way. Triple tops may occur on all time frames, but in order for the pattern to be considered a triple top, it must occur after an uptrend. The opposite of a triple is a triple bottom, which indicates the asset's price is no longer falling and could head higher." (Investopedia)
TVC:IXIC
by giloc
Daily Market Update for 6/8Summary: The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 8, 2021 Facts: +0.31%, Volume higher, Closing range: 62%, Body: 14% Good: Positive move on higher volume, higher high, higher low Bad: Red body, indecisive candle, expected resistance at 14,000 Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Thin red body in upper half of candle, longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 1.16, More advancing stocks than declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.02%), DJI (-0.09%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (+3.83%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The growth trade is continuing to build steam as investors await more inflation data later this week. The cautious start yesterday morning abated, and investors slowly rotated back into some growth and cyclical sectors today. Meme stocks continued crazy moves. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.31% gain on higher volume. A long lower wick formed in the morning selling after a gap-up open that tested 14,000 resistance. Despite the morning selling, the index recovered to close just below where it opened, creating a thin 14% red body in the upper half of the candle. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led again today with a +1.06% advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.02%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.09%. The VIX volatility gained +3.83%. The defensive sectors that led the sector list yesterday moved to the bottom today. Energy (XLE +0.86%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.81%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.84%) and Utilities (XLU -0.85%) were the worst-performing sectors of the day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.18%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield remained about the same. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -0.23%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.72%. (At the time of writing) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio declined to 0.461. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Amazon (AMZN) gained +2.07%, taking it above the 21d EMA but falling short of the 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) also moved above its 21d EMA with a +0.67% gain but hit resistance intraday at the 50d MA. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are trading above the two key moving average lines but declined at -0.49% and -0.16% today. Amazon, Exxon Mobil (XOM), PayPal (PYPL), and Chevron (CVX) lead the mega-cap list today. There were more declining mega-caps than gaining mega-caps, holding back the S&P 500 and Dow Jones from gains. Nvidia (NVDA), Pepsi Co (PEP), Proctor & Gamble (PG), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Ehang Holdings (EH) soared 18% today, topping the daily update growth list. Fastly (FSLY) gained over +10%, despite causing a widespread outage before the market opened. Lemonade (LMND) and Cloudflare (NET) round out the top four, both with better than 4% gains. Overall the growth list is about half gainers, half losers. At the bottom of the list are SNAP (SNAP), Moderna (MRNA), DoorDash (DASH), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Wednesday morning will bring Crude Oil Inventories data after the market opens. In the afternoon, a 10-Year Note Auction may have an impact on interest rates. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings on Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance As expected, the Nasdaq met resistance at 14,000 today. It could hold near that level and potentially rise above it tomorrow with the right catalyst. The three trend-lines (one-day, five-day, and from the 5/13 low) currently point to about the same place with a gain from +0.11% to +0.38% tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We are still seeing some indication that investors are eyeing opportunities to move back into growth stocks but keep a cautious foot out the door if inflation data is worse than expected. That data does not come until Thursday, so it's tough to know what to expect for Wednesday. Given the resistance at 14,000 today, it's reasonable to expect a sideways move or a step back before moving above that area. Sideways or lower. But we can hope for a surprise in the other direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/7Summary: Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, June 5, 2021 Facts: +0.49%, Volume higher, Closing range: 93%, Body: 76% Good: Positive move on higher volume, good breadth. Bad: Nothing Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Small upper and lower wick surrounding a thick green body Advanced/Decline: 1.47, Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks Indexes: SPX (-0.08%), DJI (-0.36%), RUT (+1.43%), VIX (+0.00%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%) and Communications (XLC +0.52%) were top. Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Growth investors seemed cautious in the first half of the session but turned bullish by the close. The caution showed up in the leading sectors after the market opened. As the morning ended, the action began rotating back toward growth. The Nasdaq gained +0.49%, on higher volume. A short lower and upper wick surrounding a 76% green body represents the steady climb throughout the day. The closing range of 93% came after the index made a late afternoon intraday high, dipped, and quickly recovered. There were three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small caps did very well, with the index gaining +1.43% for the day. The FTSE Russell published the initial 3000 reconstitution list after market close on Friday, which possibly drew focus to the stocks in the list. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) were weighed down by cyclical sectors, declining at -0.08% and -0.36%. The VIX volatility moved intraday but closed where it closed on Friday. Real Estate (XLRE +0.94%), Health (XLV +0.36%), and Utilities (XLU +0.18%) led the sector list in the morning. Growth sectors performed better in the afternoon, with Communications (XLC +0.52%) moving to second place. The cyclical sectors performed the worst, with Industrials (XLI -0.69%) and Materials (XLB -1.22%) at the bottom of the list. The Health sector had a considerable advance in the morning on the excitement that Eli Lilly would get FDA approval for an Alzheimer's Therapy. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.18%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices advanced while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly. Timber (Wood) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -6.22%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -4.32%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.514. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just to the fear side of neutral. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) successfully tested its 50d MA before gaining +1.20% for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) is trading above its 21d EMA and 50d MA and gained +0.36% today. Apple (AAPL) could not move above its 21d EMA, ending the day with a +0.01% gain. Amazon (AMZN) is trading below both key moving average lines, declining -0.26% today. Eli Lilly (LLY) soared back into the mega-cap list and went straight to the top with a +10.15% gain today, boosting the Health sector. Facebook (FB), Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft, and Tesla (TSLA) were the next four, each with more than 1% gains. United Health (UNH), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Alibaba (BABA), and PayPal (PYPL) were at the bottom of the list. There were more declining mega-caps than advancing mega-caps. Gainers dominated the daily update growth stock list. Fastly (FSLY), Peloton (PTON), Moderna (MRNA), DraftKings (DKNG) topped the list. JD.com (JD), Zynga (ZNGA), FUTU Holding (FUTU), and Solar Edge (SEDG) were at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Trade Balance data for April will be released before the market opens on Tuesday. After the market opens, the JOLTS Job Openings report for April will be available. There is a 3-Year Note Auction in the afternoon, and Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released after the market closes. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq stayed above the 13,700 area today. The index is heading toward expected resistance at the round number of 14,000. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the low on 5/13 both point to a +0.41% on Tuesday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.47% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was some hesitation among growth investors early in the day, but perhaps the lack of negative news in the morning warmed them back into the market by afternoon. Many small caps did well all day after the Russell 3000 began the annual reconstitution process where stocks are added and removed from the index. The initial list was released after the market close this past Friday. The gain on higher volume with breadth across the stocks in the Nasdaq is all a positive. Still, it seems investors could be a bit more greedy, which may come with a suitable catalyst. Trade Balance data on Tuesday is not likely to be the catalyst. Consumer Price Index data, if not surprisingly high, could alleviate inflation fears and help embolden investors back into growth. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Market Week in Review - 6/1/2021 - 6/4/2021Summary: The short week pivoted primarily on Friday's unemployment data, a key signal for investors of how well the economy is recovering. The Nasdaq declined through the first three days but rallied back on Friday after the data was released. The caution for investors was apparent in the top sector list before and after Friday's upside reversal. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. View on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 1, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 37%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high, advance/decline ratio above 1.0, support at 13,700 Bad: Low closing range, faded from morning rally to a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 1.32, more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.05%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (+1.14%), VIX (+6.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. The Nasdaq closed the day down -0.09% on lower volume. The opening price was nearly the high of the day, but then the index dropped to 13,700 before finding any support. That formed a 59% red body under a barely visible upper wick. The lower wick developed after the morning selling turned to afternoon buying. Despite the slight decline, there were more stocks advancing than stocks declining. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 2, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 15% Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range, support at 13,700 Bad: Lower high, thin green body Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day, short spinning top with slight longer lower wick Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.14%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-2.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. The Nasdaq closed with a small +0.14% gain after dipping in the afternoon and finding support again at 13,700. Volume was higher, and the closing range of 77% is good with a thin green 15% body. The short upper wick was formed from gains in the morning, while the longer lower wick formed in selling at the start of the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 3, 2021 Facts: -1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 47% (w/gap), Body: 30% Good: Not much Bad: Gap down at open, broke support at 13,700, close below major moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long lower wick, red body in upper half of the candle Advanced/Decline: 0.6, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.36%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.81%), VIX (+3.09%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%) and Utilities (XLU +0.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Mixed economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar but stoked fears of the Fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.03% decline on higher volume, marking a day of distribution for investors. The closing range of 47% is not terrible, but the 30% red body shows the index could not fully recover from the sell-off after market open. The longer lower wick is representative of the failed attempt to rally back to above key moving average lines. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 4, 2021 Facts: +1.47%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 87% Good: Held morning gains throughout day for a higher high and higher low Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny upper wick, no lower wick, small gap up Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.88%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-8.87%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.92%) and Communications (XLC +1.43%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher The market responded positively to jobs data released in the morning, sending indexes higher and boosting growth sectors. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected while non-farm payrolls May started to accelerate. The Nasdaq gained +1.47% for the day on lower volume. The high closing range of 91% and green body covering 87% of the candle represent morning gains that turned into a steady hold near intraday highs in the afternoon. There is no lower wick and a small upper wick. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- View on the Week The short week pivoted primarily on Friday's unemployment data, a key signal for investors of how well the economy is recovering. The Nasdaq declined through the first three days but rallied back on Friday after the data was released. The caution for investors was apparent in the top sector list before and after Friday's upside reversal. Energy led early in the week as oil prices continued to climb to highs not seen since 2018. On Thursday, Consumer Staples and Utilities topped the list, a defensive move for investors to prepare ahead of any disappointment in the employment data on Friday. It also didn't help those fears that the tone changed slightly from the Fed, announcing they'd be selling the bonds and bond ETFs they purchased during the pandemic-driven economic crisis. The purchases were small compared to other monetary policies, but investors view it as just the beginning of more tapering. The employment data on Friday morning was a mix of results against analyst expectations. Unemployment was better than expected. Nonfarm Payrolls was better than April, showing acceleration but less than expected. One interpretation for the data is that it was good enough to show the economic recovery but not so great that the Fed would change monetary policy. The meme stocks were back in the headlines this week, with GameStop (GME), AMC (AMC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Workhorse (WKHS) among stocks that were pumped up by retail investors, forcing gamma squeezes that sent several of them soaring as high as 100% mid-week. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.48% gain for the week. Volume was lower than the previous week. The closing range of 92% was good but is above a long lower wick created in the first part of the week. The index climbed back on Friday to end the week with a thin 5% body, the close for the week just below the open. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed the week near all-time highs. The S&P 500 gained +0.61% for the week, while the Dow Jones gained +0.66%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the week with a +0.77% gain. The VIX volatility index declined -2.03% for the week. Energy ( XLE ) and Real Estate ( XLRE ) led the sector list for the week, establishing their lead early in the week. Energy got a boost from the rise in oil prices on high demand. Real Estate is gathering momentum from rising housing and rental prices while also being a great hedge against inflation. The focus on employment data released on Friday morning is clear in two pivots. There was a sharp sell-off of most sectors except Consumer Staples ( XLP ) and Utilities ( XLU ) on Thursday ahead of the report. The two sectors are good defensive plays when investors get nervous about how the market may react to news or events. After the report was released, Technology ( XLK ), Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ), and Communications ( XLC ) rallied on Friday. It seems the employment data was good enough to keep a positive outlook, while not so good to drive more fears of tapering by the Fed. Health Care ( XLV ) was the worst-performing sector for the week. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for the week, and the spread between long and short-term yields tightened more. Yields on longer-term treasuries dropped on Friday's economic news. They have been in decline since the huge gains in March. At the time, the accelerating yields and widening spread raised fears in investors and caused a sell-off of big tech and growth stocks. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) advanced +0.09% for the week. The dollar index spiked on Thursday but then returned to the base on Friday following the employment data. Silver (SILVER) declined -0.42%, and Gold (GOLD) declined -0.67%. Both dipped as the dollar rose on Thursday but recovered some of the loss on Friday. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +4.45%, continuing to move toward highs in 2018. Timber (WOOD) declined -1.52%. This is the fourth week of declines. Copper (COPPER1!) declined -3.07%. Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -1.64%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps The 10-week and 40-week moving average lines are providing support and resistance for the four largest mega-caps. Alphabet (GOOGL) has support at the 10w line, riding above the line for the past four weeks and gaining +1.56% this week. Microsoft (MSFT) is finding resistance at the 10w line for three weeks, gaining +0.44% this week. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are below their 10w lines but getting support at the 40w line. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.03% for the week, while Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.52%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) rose +5.28% this week as oil prices gained for another week. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) gained +3.32% as the demand for leisure options rises. However, Delta (DAL) and Marriott (MAR) had losses of -3.57% and -1.06%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). There was more volatility in the major cryptocurrencies this past week. Ethereum (ETHUSD) was the biggest gainer with a +12.3% advance. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) volatility continues on random tweets by Elon Musk, gaining +1.2%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) advanced +3% while Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) declined -0.5%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.586. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is just to the fear side of neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 82.27, the second week of increases. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday There is not much economic news on the calendar for Monday. Marvell (MRVL) and Vail Resorts (MTN) are the most significant earnings reports for Monday. Tuesday Trade Balance data for April will be released before the market opens on Tuesday. After the market opens, the JOLTS Job Openings report for April will be available. There is a 3-Year Note Auction in the afternoon, and Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be released after the market closes. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. Wednesday Wednesday morning will bring Crude Oil Inventories data after the market opens. In the afternoon, a 10-Year Note Auction may have an impact on interest rates. GameStop (GME), RH (RH), and Lovesac (LOVE) will release earnings on Wednesday. Thursday Economic news on Thursday includes the OPEC Monthly Report early in the morning. Core Consumer Price Index data gets released before the market open. Initial Jobless Claims also gets its weekly update. In the after, the Federal Budget Balance for May will be made available. On Thursday, the only significant earnings report for the daily update is Chewy (CHWY). Friday We'll get the first consumer sentiment and expectations data for June after the market opens on Friday morning. There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Unrealized fears have driven much of the choppy market these past several months. First, it was the fear in January of what retail investors and meme stocks might do to damage confidence in equity markets. But after a brief and slight dip in January, the fear of missing out drove significant gains in the first half of February. In early March, we saw the wild climb of treasury yields and steepened yield curve, destabilizing the bond market and providing no safe hedge for investors. Everyone was shouting Yield Curve Control, and in early March, we saw the first significant drop in equities. But the yields stopped climbing, and bonds found stability. Then it was the fear of out-of-control inflation and the potential action from the Fed. Any good economic news was met with a quick sell-off of growth stocks as the Fed tapering was sure to come at any moment. That never happened, but it didn't stop investors from selling off growth in May. So here we found ourselves this week, with fear of surprise employment data. Honestly, I heard all week investors were concerned about the data, but I never knew if they were worried it would be too good or too bad. But the data came, and the fears slid away as investors moved back into growth stocks, albeit on lower volume. Following such a fantastic year in 2020, with the quick recovery from March lows and great returns for almost any investment, it's no wonder investors are waiting for the big correction. But there are plenty of indications that there is still upside in growth stocks. First, much of the rotation has been into cyclical sectors in recent months, including Industrials and Materials. The rotation was to recovering industries that were impacted by the pandemic. It was also to stocks expected to benefit from spending in Biden's infrastructure plans. nIt's clear that the infrastructure plans will need to be scaled back to get agreement across the aisle, and the capital gains tax seems to have quite a bit of resistance as well. Inflation fears have also been a considerable headwind for growth stocks, with commodity prices soaring ahead of price index data. However, we finally see a downward trend with commodity prices (not including oil). Wood, copper, and aluminum that are part of this update are all trending downward. Those dropping prices should begin showing up in the producer and consumer price index data soon. Finally, long-term treasury yields continue to slowly but surely come down, and the yield curve is flattening. The US Dollar dropped back to the level we saw at the beginning of the year. Both the low-interest rates and the weakened US Dollar can be supportive for big tech and growth stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side There is still plenty that can change to induce more fear in investors. The G7 agreed to a minimum global tax of 15% to reduce multinationals' ability to steer profits toward low-tax countries to avoid taxes in their home country. It's not clear yet what the real impact will be for big tech and growth companies. New consumer price index data this week may be enough to stir up inflation fears again. After the Fed decided to sell off bond purchases last week, investors will be watching very closely for any further change in tone. The market wants to price in any monetary policy changes before they become real. Fear after fear has come and gone this year without any realization of what was feared. But at some point, one of these fears may just come true and give the market the anticipated correction. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The Nasdaq dipped below the 21d EMA and 50d MA this week but quickly recovered to close above the key moving averages. By the end of the week, the index was back above 13,800, where it started the week. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 13,836.17. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The mid-point of the regression trend from the 5/12 low points to 14,072 by the end of the week. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. On the downside, there are a few key levels: There is a support area at 13,600 - 13,700. The 10d MA is at 13,693.41. The key moving averages are lined up close to each other. The 50d MA is at 13,654.08. The 21d EMA is at 13,639.43. The low of this past week is 13,548.93. There is a support area at 13,000. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,612.16 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Employment data on Friday breathed new life into big tech, growth stocks, and the Nasdaq. However, the gains were on lower volume, so we'll need to wait until Monday to find out if there is any follow-through on higher volume. With the G7 global tax agreement over the weekend, some initial reactions could keep investors modest to start the week. Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Daily Market Update for 6/4Summary: The market responded positively to jobs data released in the morning, sending indexes higher and boosting growth sectors. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected while non-farm payrolls May started to accelerate. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, June 4, 2021 Facts: +1.47%, Volume lower, Closing range: 91%, Body: 87% Good: Held morning gains throughout day for a higher high and higher low Bad: Lower volume Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Mostly green body with a tiny upper wick, no lower wick, small gap up Advanced/Decline: 1.04, About the same number of advancing and declining stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.88%), DJI (+0.52%), RUT (+0.31%), VIX (-8.87%) Sectors: Technology (XLK +1.92%) and Communications (XLC +1.43%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE +0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.15%) were bottom. Expectation: Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The market responded positively to jobs data released in the morning, sending indexes higher and boosting growth sectors. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected while non-farm payrolls May started to accelerate. The Nasdaq gained +1.47% for the day on lower volume. The high closing range of 91% and green body covering 87% of the candle represent morning gains that turned into a steady hold near intraday highs in the afternoon. There is no lower wick and a small upper wick. There were about the same number of advancing stocks as declining stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) is nearing all-time highs again with a +0.88% gain today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.52%. Small caps did not do quite as well, but the Russell 2000 (RUT) still had a +0.31% advance. The VIX volatility index declined -8.87% to its lowest close since April. Growth sectors soared back to the top of the list today. Technology (XLK +1.92%) and Communications (XLC +1.43%) were top, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index. Defensive sectors, including Real Estate (XLRE +0.09%) and Utilities (XLU -0.15%), moved to the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.39%, retracing from yesterday's big gain. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. The spread tightened considerably between long-term and short-term bonds. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced after yesterday's decline, reacting again to the dollar. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced again, continuing to set new highs not seen since 2018. Timber (Wood) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -5.95%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.79%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.586. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is just to the fear side of neutral. The NAAIM investment manager exposure index is 82.27. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Microsoft (MSFT) gained +2.07%, cruising back above both its 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +1.96%, trading above its key moving average lines. Apple (AAPL) gained +1.90% but hit resistance at its 21d EMA. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.60% but is still well below the moving average lines. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM), and ASML Holding (ASML) topped the mega-cap list today. Only a handful of mega-caps declined for the day, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Nike (NKE), Home Depot (HD), and United Health (UNH) Most of the stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Ehang Holdings (EH) gained nearly 20%. MongoDB (MDB) gained over 15% after an earnings surprise for the first quarter. UP Fintech (TIGR) and Sumo Digital (SUMO) were the other two in the top four. At the bottom of the list was Crowdstrike (CRWD), which disappointed investors with earnings. Also declining for the day were Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Fastly (FSLY). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead There is not much economic news on the calendar for Monday. Marvell (MRVL) and Vail Resorts (MTN) are the most significant earnings reports for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq rose back above the moving average lines and the 13,700 area today. The one-day trend-line and the trend-line from the low on 5/13 both point to a +0.61% on Monday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.79%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up We waited all week for the labor market data, with investors getting skittish yesterday with anticipation. The response to the new numbers was positive and brought the index back to nearly where we began the week. Hopefully, the exuberance will continue into next week, and we can start moving toward new highs. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/3Summary: Mixed reactions to economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar, but stoked fears of the fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, June 3, 2021 Facts: -1.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 47% (w/gap), Body: 30% Good: Not much Bad: Gap down at open, broke support at 13,700, close below major moving averages Highs/Lows: Lower high, lower low Candle: Long lower wick, red body in upper half of the candle Advanced/Decline: 0.6, More than three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.36%), DJI (-0.07%), RUT (-0.81%), VIX (+3.09%) Sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%) and Utilities (XLU +0.60%) were top. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Mixed reactions to economic data moved investors into defensive mode on Thursday while they await more news on the labor market scheduled for Friday. Today's data gave a boost to the US Dollar , but stoked fears of the fed tapering off monetary policy earlier than expected. The defensive sectors were up for the day while growth sectors took a step back from recent gains. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.03% decline on higher volume, marking a day of distribution for investors. The closing range of 47% is not terrible but the 30% red body shows the index could not fully recover from the sell-off after market open. The longer lower wick is representative of the failed attempt to rally back to above key moving average lines. There were more than three declining stocks for every two advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) declined -0.81% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined only -0.07%. The VIX volatility index advanced +3.09%. The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP +0.62%), Utilities (XLU +0.60%) and Health (XLV +0.30%) were top performing for the day, signaling investors nervousness over economic data. Technology (XLK -0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.19%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) gained +0.65%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined, due to the advance in the US Dollar. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) declined slightly from its recent record high. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +4.34%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +5.49%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.563. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is slightly on the fear side, but close to neutral. The NAAIM investment manager exposure index rose to 82.27. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -0.97%, testing its 21d EMA, but remaining above the line. The other three are trading below the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.22%. Microsoft declined -0.64%. Amazon (AMZN) dropped -1.45%. Procter & Gamble (PG), Toyota Motor (TM ), Nvidia (NVDA), and Oracle (ORCL) were the top mega-caps for the day, all gaining more than 1% despite the drop in the overall market. Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Netflix (NFLX), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were at the bottom of the list. Most of the daily update growth stocks declined for the day. UP Fintech (TIGR), Digital Turbine (APPS), Moderna (MRNA), and FUTU Holdings (FUTU) topped the list with advances. At the bottom of the list were Etsy (ETSY), Ehang Holdings (EH), MongoDb (MDB) , and DoorDash (DASH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak early in the morning on Friday. The anticipated employment data will be released before markets open and should have a big impact on investor sentiment. After the market opens, Factory Orders data will be released. There are no earnings reports relevant for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index dipped below the 13,600 level, but closed just above it and within the 13,600 - 13,700 support area. It also closed below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The trend-line from the low on 5/13 points to a +1.95% gain on Friday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.31% advance. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.09% sideways move. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -0.41% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up After spending seven days without much direction in the Nasdaq, Thursday brought a character change. Maybe not the one we are hoping for, but it at least helps set some expectations leading into Friday. From the chart, I'll expect a sideways or lower move for Friday. Investors will be watching remarks from Jerome Powell closely and will certainly react to the labor market data released before the market opens. Great news might be met with more fear over a fed reaction to the recovering economy, and have an opposite impact for growth stocks. So Powell's remarks will be even more important, and may be why they are scheduled for Friday morning. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/2Summary: Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, June 2, 2021 Facts: +0.14%, Volume higher, Closing range: 77%, Body: 15% Good: Gain on higher volume, high closing range, support at 13,700 Bad: Lower high, thin green body Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.91, more decling stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.14%), DJI (+0.07%), RUT (+0.13%), VIX (-2.24%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Another sideways move for the indexes while investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the economic data coming over the next two days. To pass the boredom, investors watched, or maybe even gambled with meme stocks that had another day of huge swings. The Nasdaq closed with a small +0.14% gain after dipping in the afternoon and finding support again at 13,700. Volume was higher, and the closing range of 77% is good with a thin green 15% body. The short upper wick was formed from gains in the morning, while the longer lower wick formed in selling at the start of the afternoon. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was the only major index to get a higher high today but gained only +0.13% after a strong session the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.07%. The VIX volatility index declined -2.24%. Energy (XLE +1.86%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.39%) continued their lead as the top sectors this week. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.46%) and Materials (XLB -0.84%) were the worst-performing today. It's worth noting that Utilities (XLU +0.53%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.37%) also performed well today. Technology (XLK +0.69%) started the day as the top sector but faded to third place by afternoon. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.02%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields all declined. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) advanced +2.44%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) advanced +2.78%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose to 0.534. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is moving toward neutral, but still just on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) climbed +0.63% and +0.48% today but are still below their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined just -0.04% after hitting resistance at the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -0.44% but is still trading within a base forming above its 21d EMA and 50d MA. There were more gainers than losers in the mega-cap list. Nvidia (NVDA), Toyota Motor (TM ), Mastercard (MC), and Chevron (CVX) were the top mega-caps for the day. Tesla (TSLA), Walt Disney (DIS), Home Depot (HD), and Salesforce.com (CRM) were the worst-performing mega-caps. The daily update growth list is a bit more, even with gainers and losers. At the top of the list is Beyond Meat (BYND), gaining over 10% for the day. Lemonade (LMND), Etsy (ETSY), and Palantir (PLTR) were also in the top four. At the bottom of the list were NIO (NIO), FUTU Holding (FUTU), Digital Turbine (APPS), and UP Fintech (TIGR). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead More employment data is coming on Thursday with Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, and Labor Costs. Services PMI is a leading indicator of demand for services such as hotels, restaurants, and others. Crude Oil Inventories will be available late in the morning. Fed members are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Thursday's earnings reports include Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Slack (WORK), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), Pagerduty (PD), and Sumo Logic (SUMO). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to hold above the 13,600 - 13,700 area after testing the area in the afternoon dip. The trend-line from the low on 5/13 points to a +1.12% gain on Thursday. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a -0.04% lateral move. The one-day trend line points to a -0.59% decline. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -1.55% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's been almost two weeks of sideways move for the Nasdaq after it popped above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average and the 50-day Simple Moving Average, two lines that I like to track on index and stock charts along with the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The slow move can be a good thing as we build a base, making the support area from 13,600-13,700 stronger and allowing the moving average lines to catch up. If the 21d EMA can move above the 50d MA, that will be a good confirmation of the uptrend and potentially the start of a move higher. In the meantime, if you want excitement, keep your eyes on the meme stocks that are going crazy again. To the moon. Ugh. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 6/1Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among the major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, June 1, 2021 Facts: -0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 37%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high, advance/decline ratio above 1.0, support at 13,700 Bad: Low closing range, faded from morning rally to a lower low Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low Candle: Outside day, thick red body with a tiny upper wick and longer lower wick. Advanced/Decline: 1.32, more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (-0.05%), DJI (+0.13%), RUT (+1.14%), VIX (+6.68%) Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview The Dow Jones Industrial Average attempted to set a record, but the small-cap Russell 2000 performed the best among the major indices today. As for the Nasdaq, the first day of the summer months started with a rally but faded quickly and continued last week's sideways moves. The Nasdaq closed the day down -0.09% on lower volume. The opening price was nearly the high of the day, but then the index dropped to 13,700 before finding any support. That formed a 59% red body under a barely visible upper wick. The lower wick developed after the morning selling turned to afternoon buying. Despite the slight decline, there were more stocks advancing than stocks declining. The Russell 2000 (RUT) closed the day with a +1.14% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was heading toward a new all-time high close before it reversed and ended lower, advancing just +0.13% for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a -0.05% gain. The VIX volatility index rose +6.68%. Energy (XLE +3.85%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.71%) were top. Growth in fuel demand sent oil prices higher and helped the Energy sector top the list today. Utilities (XLU -0.61%) and Health (XLV -1.64%) were at the bottom of the sector list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.10%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields advanced. High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) declined. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -1.74%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -2.70%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio dropped to 0468. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced today, gaining +1.03%. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.91% and dropped back below its 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Amazon (AMZN) continued to get resistance at its declining 21d EMA, losing -0.14% today. Apple (AAPL) declined -0.26% and is trading below both of the key moving average lines. Toyota Motor (TM ), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Alibaba (BABA) topped the mega-cap list, all with greater than 2.5% gains. At the bottom of the list were Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Adobe (ADBE), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Nike (NKE). The majority of the daily update growth list declined today, but there were some gainers. The Chinese stocks topped the list, with NIO (NIO), UP Fintech (TIGR), JD.com (JD), and Ehang Holdings (EH) performing the best. FUTU (FUTU) and Alibaba (BABA) were the fifth and sixth. At the bottom of the list were Beyond Meat (BYND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Solar Edge (SEDG), and Enphase (ENPH). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Some more updates from the Federal Reserve come on Wednesday with the release of the Beige book and comments from Fed member Raphael Bostic in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude oil stock updates come after market close. Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) will release earnings. Otherwise, there are not many interesting earning reports for the daily update. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index continues to hold above the 13,600 - 13,700 area after testing the area in the early morning dip. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.54% gain on Wednesday. The one-day trend line points to a -0.04% sideways move. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -1.71% decline for tomorrow. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It wasn't an inspiring start to the month of June. Certainly, there were things to watch, from the sale of Cloudera (CLDR) to the continued resurgence of the meme stocks of AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME). The cryptocurrencies settled down a bit and are starting to form some nice coils on lower volume. But overall, it was a mixed day with a sideways move in the indices. Based on the failed rally attempt in the morning and overall bearish candle, the expectation is for sideways or lower tomorrow. That's been a consistent expectation the past week, even among higher highs and higher lows. Unless something excites investors back into big tech and growth stocks, we can continue to expect this sideways movement heading into the early summer. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
1
Market Week in Review - 5/24/2021 - 5/28/2021Summary: The week opened with reassurances that the Fed would not change monetary policy, helping to move the dialogue off inflation and turn the trade back toward growth. However, caution remained. There were gains, but some indecision in the indexes remained, and rotation was back into value and defensive plays at the end of the week. Notes The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. I occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week What's coming in the next week The Bullish View, The Bearish View Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to "The Meaning of Life." If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the daily charts for more detail on sectors, indexes, and market leaders each day. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, May 24, 2021 Facts: +1.41%, Volume lower, Closing range: 70%, Body: 66% Good: Higher high, higher low, high closing range Bad: Upper wick from fade before close, lower volume, A/D ratio Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Large green body under a long upper wick. No lower wick. Advanced/Decline: More declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.99%), DJI (+0.54%), RUT (+0.54%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Communications (XLC +1.82%) and Technology (XLK +1.78%) were top. Health (XLV +0.10%) and Utilities (XLU -0.18%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The Fed made new promises today to keep an easy monetary policy, helping boost growth stocks. Stocks that suffered from inflation fears were the ones that had the most gains today. The Nasdaq rose +1.41%, but on lower volume for the day. The closing range of 70% results from a fade in prices before close, but the candle still has a 66% green body from the bullish day. Despite the bullish day in the indexes, there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, May 25, 2021 Facts: -0.03%, Volume higher, Closing range: 21%, Body: 54% Good: The higher high and higher low continues the uptrend Bad: Could not revisit the high just after open, and higher volume in selling with low A/D Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Shallow red body within a tight intraday range. Slightly longer upper wick. Advanced/Decline: Two declining stocks for every advancing stock. Indexes: SPX (-24%), DJI (+0.24%), RUT (-0.97%), VIX (-7.73%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.32%) and Real Estate (XLRE +0.28%) were top. Utilities (XLU -1.21%) and Energy (XLE -2.03%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher The indices pulled back a bit from yesterday's gains after consumer confidence numbers were lower than expected, indicating some possible bumps in the economic recovery. That left us still waiting for a higher volume advance with more breadth in gains across the market. The Nasdaq moved sideways with a small -0.03% declined by the end of the day. Volume was higher for the day. The index fell after a very brief rally after open, creating a 54% red body with small upper and lower wicks. The closing range of 21% is in the middle of the afternoon trading range, with the index moving sideways most of the day. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing range: 83%, Body: 62% Good: Higher volume with breadth of gains across index Bad: No higher high Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low Candle: Inside day. A shallow green body with the high and low within the previous day's range. Advanced/Decline: Two advancing stocks for every declining stock. Indexes: SPX (+0.19%), DJI (+0.03%), RUT (+1.97%), VIX (-7.31%) Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.95%) and Energy (XLE +0.89%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.21%) and Health (XLV -0.58%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Investors put their inflation worries aside today and jumped back into growth and small-cap stocks. The breadth of gains across stocks on higher volume in the indices shows the kind of accumulation we've wanted. There is still overhead supply to deal with among many growth stocks, but today is a move in the right direction. The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.59% gain on higher volume. The candlestick is an inside day where the high and low are within the high and low of the previous day. The closing range of 83% over a 62% green body represents a bullish day, but the narrow trading range exposes some remaining caution among investors. There were more than two advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 27, 2021 [chart [https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IXIC/imyDyxkr-Daily-Market-Update-for-5-27/ Facts: -0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Could not hold onto intraday gains Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top red candle, thin red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-3.57%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed nearly where it opened with a slight -0.01% loss. The spinning-top style candle has a thin 8% red body in the middle of equal length upper and lower wicks, resulting in a 46% closing range. The candle signals indecision among investors, which is in line with this week's market character. Despite the slight loss, there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 28, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Low closing range, couldn't hold mid-day high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with no lower wick, visible upper wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.76, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (+0.12%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain but faded from the mid-day high. Volume was lower for the day and lower in the afternoon selling, which was a good sign for bulls. The closing range of 2% and red 59% body creates a candlestick with no lower wick. The upper wick formed from the morning rally. Today's session marks seven days of a higher low. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Meaning of Life (View on the Week) The week opened with reassurances that the Fed would not change monetary policy, helping to move the dialogue off inflation and turn the trade back toward growth. However, caution remained. There were gains, but some indecision in the indexes remained, and rotation was back into value and defensive plays at the end of the week. Monday was the best day of the week for the Nasdaq, gaining +1.41% for the day. It came on lower volume but started the upward trend in both price and volume for the rest of the week. Tuesday brought a pull-back as investors took profits from Monday's session. However, Consumer Discretionary remained at the top of the sector list, and Technology had small gains despite the pull-back in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Overall, it still looked good for growth stocks. Wednesday proved that investors were still interested in growth stocks. They put inflation worries to bed and reinvested, taking stocks higher on higher volume, with two advancing stocks for every declining stock. The pace changed a bit on Thursday after attention moved back to infrastructure spending and robust economic recovery data. That caused a rotation back to cyclicals and value stocks that investors ignored earlier in the week. Still, the Nasdaq held close to the previous day's price on higher volume, and there was a breadth of gains across stocks in the index. There were no surprises for the end of the week. The index moved higher in the morning but couldn't hold the gains as investors moved into defensive positions for the three-day weekend and the start of the typically low-performing summer months. The Nasdaq climbed +2.06% for the week. Volume was higher than the previous week. The closing range was 73%, a good sign and strengthened by the higher high and higher low. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) had the best week of the major indices, gaining +2.42%. The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +1.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +1.16%. The VIX volatility index declined -16.36% for the week. Growth sectors stole the show this week as investors put inflation worries aside and boosted Communications ( XLC ) and Technology ( XLK ) early in the week. The focus was on the growth sectors from Monday to Wednesday. Technology faded back in the list, buy Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) joined Communications to end the week at the top of the list. On Thursday, there was a rotation into cyclicals, bringing Industrials ( XLI ) higher in the list. Industrials ended the week in fourth place. Friday brought out the defensive plays heading into a three-day weekend and the start of the summer months. That gave a boost to Real Estate ( XLRE ), Health Care ( XLV ), Utilities ( XLU ), and Consumer Staples ( XLP ). Real Estate ( XLRE ) ended in third place for the week, while Health Care and Utilities remained at the bottom two sectors for the week. The US Treasury 30y, 10y, and 2y yields declined for the week, and the spread between long and short-term yields tightened more. The High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Bond (LQD) prices advanced. The US Dollar (DXY) seemed to find an area of support around 90, dipping early in the week but then ending the week with a +0.03% advance. Silver (SILVER) advanced +1.38%, and Gold (GOLD) advanced +1.19%. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced +4.21%, hitting recent highs. Timber (WOOD) declined -0.10%. This is the third week of declines. Copper and Aluminum had significant advances on Thursday thanks to a renewed focus on infrastructure spending. Copper (COPPER1!) advanced +3.50%. Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced +5.48%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Big Four Mega-caps Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to be the strongest of the four largest mega-caps this week. It has consistently outperformed the index this year. This week, Alphabet advanced +2.73%, continuing the climb after touching its 10w moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) is also doing well with a +1.84% gain this week and topping the 10w line before closing below it. Amazon (AMZN) gained +0.62%, losing momentum from earlier in the week and closing just above the 40w moving average line. Apple (AAPL) had its fifth week of declines, losing -0.65% this week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Four Recovery Stocks I picked four recovery stocks to track against the indexes and other indicators in this weekly report. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the only one with a loss this week, declining -0.93% but getting support at the 10w moving average line. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) rose +8.80% for the week and could be ready to break out of a base. Delta Airlines (DAL) moved above the 10w moving average line with a +5.46% gain. Marriott (MAR) gained +3.29% but remained below the 10w moving average line. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Cryptocurrency I started tracking four major cryptocurrencies on the week in review. The four are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The latter two are not the largest by market cap but seem to be well-known and are part of the CIX capital.com index, tracking five cryptocurrencies, including these four (Ripple is the fifth). The cryptocurrencies bounced back from two weeks of losses. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained +4.29%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) gained +18.79%. Litecoin (LTCUSD) gained +26.37%. Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) gained +24.21%. Ethereum is the only of the four near its 10w moving average, having poked above it earlier in the week. The other three are trading in between the 10w and 40w moving average lines. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment www.tradingview.com The put/call ratio (PCCE) moved lower, ending the week at 0.593. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment and could mean an overbought market. The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 68.3 after dipping to 44.2 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead Monday Monday is Memorial Day in the US, and the markets will be closed. Tuesday On Tuesday, the ISM will release Manufacturing data, including the purchasing managers index and employment data, showing the sector preparing for future rise or fall in demand. Zoom Video (ZM), Hewlett Packard (HPE), and Digital Turbine (APPS) will release earnings reports on Tuesday. Wednesday Some more updates from the Federal Reserve come on Wednesday with the release of the Beige book and comments from Fed member Raphael Bostic in the afternoon. API Weekly Crude oil stock updates come after market close. Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) will release earnings. Otherwise, there are not many interesting earning reports for the daily update. Thursday More employment data is coming on Thursday with Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, and Labor Costs. Services PMI is a leading indicator of demand for services such as hotels, restaurants, and others. Crude Oil Inventories will be available late in the morning. Fed members are scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Thursday's earnings reports include Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU), Slack (WORK), MongoDB (MDB), Five Below (FIVE), Pagerduty (PD), Sumo Logic (SUMO), Friday Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak early in the morning on Friday. Then more employment data will be released before markets open. After the market opens, Factory Orders will be released. There are no earnings reports relevant for the daily update on Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bullish Side Investors turned their attention back to the growth stock trade this past week. The new confidence comes after the Fed reinforced that they will make no monetary policy changes until they see employment and economic activity recovers fully. That also helped the US Dollar and interest rates remain low, which can boost big tech and growth stocks. It's reasonable to expect more upside for growth stocks in the next few weeks. It also seems that retail investors are entering back into the picture. For better or worse, the meme stocks that got much attention early in the year are starting to see the same gains again. Once those trades play out, we could see additional retail activity in some of the favorite growth names as well. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Bearish Side Sell in May and go away is the age-old mantra. As investors came to the end of this week, we saw them move into defensive sectors that tend to stay steady regardless of the ups and downs of the market. That could be because there is a three-day weekend coming up, but investors may also be prepping for the drawdowns that often come in the summer months. The months of June to September historically don't do as well as other months. Each of those months has gains less than 60% of the time in stock market history. Any economic news this week that is disappointing may be the catalyst that ensures investors go away. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch The index moved back above the 21d EMA and 50d MA lines this week. The 21d EMA is approaching the 50d MA and may cross above in the next week, confirming a good uptrend. The index is also back above the 13,600 - 13,700 support/resistance area. It rose above this area on Wednesday and stayed above it through the end of the week. On the positive side, the levels are: The high of this past week was 13,820.87. The rally attempt of two weeks ago made it to 13,828.62. A move above that level adds confidence to this rally. 14,000 has been a key area of support/resistance. The index has only stayed above this level for a few days at a time since the beginning of 2021. The all-time high is at 14,211.57. On the downside, there are a few key levels: The key moving averages are lined up close to each other. The 50d MA is at 13,611,29. The 21d EMA is at 13,596.57. The 10d MA is at 13,553.05. The low of this past week is 13,551.01. There is a support area at 13,000. 12,786.81 is a low pivot point from the late March dip. Stay above this low to keep an upward trend since early March. 12,612.16 is the 200d MA. This could be a support point if the index falls below 13,000. 12,397.05 is a low pivot point from the early March dip. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was the most exciting rally this week. It started with a bang but then slowed through the remainder of the week. A slow, steady climb may be boring, but it isn't necessarily a bad thing, helping build new support levels that can keep the index moving higher instead of making new lows. Next week is a short week with a lighter set of economic news and earnings reports. The main concern now is how the market enters the summer and whether investors will go on vacation or keep driving prices higher. If you are in the US, enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend! Good luck, stay healthy, and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
5
Daily Market Update for 5/28Summary: Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, May 28, 2021 Facts: +0.09%, Volume lower, Closing range: 2%, Body: 59% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Low closing range, couldn't hold mid-day high Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Red body with no lower wick, visible upper wick. Advanced/Decline: 0.76, more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (+0.19%), RUT (-0.18%), VIX (+0.12%) Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%) were top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Little by little. That's been how the index gains have come this week. Higher lows pushed up higher highs through the week as investors grapple with a mix of economic news and shrugged off inflation data. It was the same for Friday. Price index data was higher, but it didn't seem to bring any surprises. Consumer data was a mix of results against expectations, causing a bit of uncertainty. Add a three-day weekend, and investors moved into defensive plays. The Nasdaq closed with a +0.09% gain but faded from the mid-day high. Volume was lower for the day and lower in the afternoon selling, which was a good sign for bulls. The closing range of 2% and red 59% body creates a candlestick with no lower wick. The upper wick formed from the morning rally. Today's session marks seven days of a higher low. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Russell 2000 (RUT) pulled back from its recent rally with a -0.18% decline today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.19%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced +0.08%. The VIX volatility index rose +0.12%. The defensive sectors topped the sector list today. That includes Real Estate (XLRE +0.67%) and Utilities (XLU +0.54%), Health (XLV +0.39%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +0.21%). However, tucked into the top sector list is Technology (XLK +0.36%), leading at mid-day. At the bottom of the list were the other growth sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%) and Communications (XLC -0.33%). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.06%. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury yields declined, with the spread tightening a bit. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) prices declined while Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices advanced. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) declined. Copper (COPPER1!) declined while Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -7.30%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -11.96%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.593. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) held onto a gain, advancing +0.15% for the day. Microsoft (MSFT) is trading above the key moving average lines, the 21d EMA and 50d MA. Alphabet (GOOGL) is also trading above the key lines, with a -0.25% decline today. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are below the two lines, with a -0.53% and -0.22% loss for today. Salesforce.com (CRM) topped the mega-cap list, beating expectations and analyst outlook for full-year guidance. Nvidia (NVDA) had a delayed reaction to great earnings earlier in the week, coming up second on the mega-cap list today. ASML Holding (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) also topped the list. At the bottom of the mega-cap list were Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), AT&T (T), and Tesla (T). Despite some of the larger names in the Technology sector losing for the day, the sector outperformed thanks to significant gains by Salesforce.com, Nvidia, Adobe (ADBE) and smaller increases by Microsoft and Visa (V), which provided support for the sector. That helped the sector perform even as investors took defensive positions outside of growth stocks. Lemonade (LMND), GrowGeneration (GRWG), Nvidia, and Ehang Holdings (EH) topped the daily update growth list. The list is about 50% gainers and 50% losers for the day. At the bottom of the list are Peloton (PTON), Fastly (FSLTY), Chewy (CHWY), and Snowflake (SNOW) -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Monday is Memorial Day in the US, and the markets will be closed. On Tuesday, the ISM will release Manufacturing data, including the purchasing managers index and employment data, showing the sector preparing for future rise or fall in demand. Zoom Video (ZM), Hewlett Packard (HPE), and Digital Turbine (APPS) will release earnings reports on Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance Similar to Thursday, the index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.60% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line points to a +0.03% gain. Following the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.05% decline for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up There was plenty to be nervous about today looking at the rising wedge in the index chart this past week. Inflation data, recovery data, and the three-day weekend could result in a much worse outcome. As expected, the defensive plays in sectors like Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples came into play, especially as the afternoon progressed. However, notice that investors did not punish companies with great earnings reports as they sometimes do when the timing isn't quite right. In the end, the week gave us a higher high and a higher low than the previous week. That's a step in the right direction as we end May and move into the summer months. The summer months (June to September) are not historically the best months for the market, but hopefully, we can keep moving in a positive direction. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Daily Market Update for 5/27Summary: Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, May 27, 2021 Facts: -0.01%, Volume higher, Closing range: 46%, Body: 8% Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Could not hold onto intraday gains Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low Candle: Indecisive spinning-top red candle, thin red body in the middle of two long wicks. Advanced/Decline: Three advancing stocks for every two declining stocks. Indexes: SPX (+0.12%), DJI (+0.41%), RUT (+1.06%), VIX (-3.57%) Sectors: Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Positive employment and durable goods orders data gave a boost to the cyclical sectors today. Investors rotated out of big tech and some growth stocks and into value stocks and small caps. Even so, there were a broad set of gains on higher volume, even in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Nasdaq closed nearly where it opened with a slight -0.01% loss. The spinning-top style candle has a thin 8% red body in the middle of equal length upper and lower wicks, resulting in a 46% closing range. The candle signals indecision among investors, which is in line with this week's market character. Despite the slight loss, there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index led again today with a +1.06% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained +0.41%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.12%. The VIX volatility index declined -3.57%. Cyclical sectors led the list today. Industrials (XLI +1.37%) and Financials (XLF +1.15%) were top, with Materials (XLB +0.80%) in third place. Technology (XLK -0.53%) had the second day of underperformance relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.62%) and Utilities (XLU -0.67%) were the bottom sectors of the day. Investors did not focus on the defensive strategy of these sectors. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Economic Indicators The US Dollar (DXY) declined -0.05%. The dollar seems to have found a base of support over the past two weeks. The US 30y, 10y, and 2y treasure yields all advanced, with the spread remaining about the same. Both High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined. Silver (SILVER) and Gold (GOLD) advanced. Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced. Timber (WOOD) advanced. Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) advanced considerably, aligning with the performance of the Industrial and Materials sectors. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -2.05%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -5.14%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Investor Sentiment The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.550. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish. The CNN Fear & Greed index is still on the fear side. The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 68.3 after dipping to 44.2 the previous week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Leaders The four largest mega-caps declined today. Apple (AAPL) lost -1.24% while Amazon (AMZN) declined -1.07%. Both are trading below the key 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.87% but stopped short of dipping below the 21d EMA. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains well above the two key moving average lines, despite declining -0.74% today. Tesla (TSLA) tops the mega-cap list again today. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Facebook (FB), Walt Disney (DIS) were also in the top-performing mega-caps for the day. At the bottom of the list is Proctor & Gamble (PG), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Nvidia (NVDA). The majority of stocks in the daily update growth list gained for the day. Beyond Meat (BYND), DoorDash (DASH), Snowflake (SNOW), and Cloudflare (NET) topped the list. Okta (OKTA) declined almost 10% after disappointing investors with their earnings, despite beating expectations. Workday (WDAY), Paycom (PAYC), and ServiceNow (NOW) are also at the bottom of the list. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Friday will bring another update on inflation with the PCE Price Index data, an indicator of inflation. In addition, we will see updates for Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Retail Inventories, and Consumer Sentiment. Big Lots (BIG) and Ehang Holdings (EH) will release earnings. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index made a higher high today before settling back to where it opened. It's still above the 13,600-13,700 area. Following the five-day trend-line would result in a +0.81% gain for tomorrow. The one-day trend line points to a +0.10% gain. A return to the trend-line from the 4/2 high would result in a -2.84% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up On the one hand, we have a red candle with a daily loss for the Nasdaq. That doesn't seem optimistic for tech and growth stocks. On the other hand, there is higher volume and broad gains across the stocks in the index. Overall, you could call that a structural day that builds a base for further increases. The last six candles all have higher lows, which is good. The highs, however, have been decelerating relative to the higher lows, creating a topping pattern. That makes setting an expectation for Friday all the more challenging and reflects the indecision in the market this week. The expectation is Sideways or Lower for Friday. The primary risk will be in the pre-market Price Index data that may raise inflation fears with investors. There may also be more rotation back into recovery stocks and cyclical sectors, or even defensive sectors, as investors take some profits heading into a three-day weekend. Stay healthy and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
24