NASDAQ has long way from now on to go up!|Hello dears
After a while I'm back and I found that there isn't any good signal in Nasdaq going up.
Its according to monthly analysis .
IXIC trade ideas
Moment of truth (NASDAQ)This is a long-term trendline on the NASDAQ log chart (1M). It seems like we've finally reached a decisive point in the ongoing Fed vs Inflation saga. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next. If we break the trendline like we did in 2008, we're likely to take the elevator down and then spend the next few years catching up to the trendline again.
Bulls will want to see a bounce off this zone however and if we do, believe it or not, we're likely to continue trending higher and go on another bull run until the next crisis hits.
All eyes on the charts!
A potential continuation of technical downtrends on display
Nasdaq Composite Index(IXIC); A strong continuation of technical downtrends on display in the daily time frame.
Two technical patterns need to be observed in the daily chart. The bearish flag pattern outlined in blue and the long-term price channel developed during the Covid-19 pandemic both aligned with the 10353 support line, which could trigger a sell-off.
The index survived the previous pullback to the 10353 support line but will it survive this time? 10353 and 10038 estimates are considered critical support levels according to the technical indicator. 10038 is the last line of defence; fail at this level, and the index could fall to 9518 and 8486.
Not financial advice; the analysis is based on my technical indicator for educational purposes only.
You can follow my work for future updates on the stock market as we continue to navigate through market volatility.
NASDAQ MORE DOWNSIDE!I still see downside in 2023, the chart is showing a similar pattern to the DOTCOM BUBBLE.
I just see bear market rallies and some considerable time until we see a major trend reversal.
We have just finished the 2nd BUBBLE which was led by the creation of BITCOIN which was born out of the Financial Crash in 2008. The age of low interest rates are also over and the time of making easy money is over.
This is just for my own trading journey and pure speculation, if you enjoy please like and comment below.
Thanks
Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on Dec 16 2022After the announcement of the 50 basis point rate hike last night, the market responded with a decline. The 50 basis point rate hike had been expected. The focus was on the follow-up speech by Powell. After the announcement of the rate hike data, the market started to rally at 3:35 am. Powell made some optimistic remarks during the period, such as a "welcome decline" in inflation. At the same time, the economy has maintained moderate growth. But the market was also reminded that the lesson of history is not to relax policy too soon. There are at least 50 basis points to be added next year, and they will be maintained for some time. Next year's rates will also be the peak of the current round of rate hikes.
Overall, the events that took place last night, including the speeches, were almost exactly what the market expected. Whether it was a 50 basis point hike or continued hawkishness, it was all expected. And even though the remarks were hawkish, what was revealed was all positive. For example, the Fed increase in interest rates at the beginning of a sharp, the market generally expected recession and inflation needed to choose one of two. But a year down the road, it temporarily achieved both control inflation economy and continues improving the situation. Because of the lag of monetary policy, the subsequent inflation may see an accelerated decline. A peak next year means the same as telling the market that interest rate increases will stop next year. And the median interest rate of 5.1% next year also determines that the space for rate hikes next year is only 50-100 basis points. Combined with the current situation, the probability is 50%. Stay hawkish just because it's not time to celebrate yet. The Fed will continue to do its job.
The suspense is still left until the first quarter of next year, but the overall trend is already obvious.
Nasdaq Composite is super weakIXIC is the weakest index adding gravity to the rest of indexes. Since 13 weeks it's not able to jump up above (W)MA200. The longer you stay below (W)MA200 the less chances you have to jump above it. Last sustained break of IXIC below (W)MA200 was September 2008
IXIC resistance lines to watchThe points in the chart show a bearish outlook for the US COMPOSITE INDEX. This trend may reverse if the price rises above the 1D Cosmic Gravity support channel.
BKEX Institute Annual Strategy Report(2022–2023)In 2022, the world experienced an epidemic, war, and sanctions against China and Russia from Europe and the U.S. Many factors have pushed up commodity prices, especially energy. Epidemics and wars have also impacted supply chains, leading to imbalances in supply and demand. On top of that, global central banks release massive amounts of liquidity to rescue the economy during the epidemic. This has shown that the composition of this inflation problem is relatively complex.
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As far as the data is concerned, inflation is concentrated in the two main categories of food (10.9%) and energy (17.6%), as well as the breakdown of automobiles (8.4%) and transportation services (15.2%). It can be seen that rising commodity and energy prices are the leading cause of inflation problems.
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Inflation in food comes mainly from poultry, eggs, cereals, and cereal products. Poultry and eggs are mainly due to the more serious avian influenza outbreaks in producing countries this year, resulting in lower production. The avian flu is still severe, and output has not recovered. Russia and Ukraine make and export wheat in cereal, accounting for 20% and 28% of the world’s production, respectively. There are no signs of the conflict cooling down. Therefore, it should be difficult for this part of inflation to fall quickly. But there is relative optimism: the prices of alternatives such as pork, beef, and dairy products have already declined in the October data. And inflation on food is not a significant problem as long as it remains stable and does not increase significantly.
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The primary sources of energy inflation are gasoline (17.5%), fuel oil (68.5%), electricity (14.1%), and natural gas (20%). Of these, fuel oil rose 68.5%. However, there is a clear seasonality in demand for fuel. After the end of the heating season in January next year, it will naturally decline significantly.
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Also, combine this with the sharp decline in U.S. oil reserves when oil prices were high this year. Events such as the bizarre bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the massive U.S. exports of high-priced natural gas to Europe make it easy to conclude that energy prices have been under control.
On top of that, we can see that commodity and energy price indices are already falling. This part of the decline is not reflected in the last CPI data for October, which is the consumer side of the price response, while the PPI is the production side, which can be interpreted as a leading index. Therefore, we can remain optimistic about future inflation data.
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Nasdaq review Short term & Medium Term AnalysisNasdaq at 11105 current level,
Currently on a rising wedge pattern.
If a break out happens above 11720- 11750 going past above the wedge, it can take it to initial target of 13100.
On a downside, since currently markets are less than MA 50 level, the side ward movement continues.
it needs a clear break out above 11185 level, and move past 11450 ( Prev high)
Will the bulls return? NDX Strong trend line in green
I believe this is just a little bump in the road along a long bullrun for the Nasdaq
We are still along the trend line
Much higher we must go
Happy holidays friends
🟩 Breadth showing Bullish signAs we are making lower lows in the Nasdaq Composite, the % of stocks participating in the rallies increases.
This is exactly the opposite to what we were seeing in the November highs when we said that the market is topping.
This is great bullish sign.
nasdaq parallel update, the final shortsimple parallel trendlines, wild guess, the final short is coming
Nasdaq dotcom bubble 2022. Bottom may be around mid 2023/2024This is 1 year chart.
The Nasdaq has been overbought in term of RSI and upper Bollinger overshoot
Short until 1 year mid bollinger around 5.8k to 6.3k
We now have crypto bubble burst (Bitcoin won't vanish but the price will go down significantly), tech bubble burst, unprofitable company bubble burst
The Fed may start being dovish, but the focus should shift to recession fear and deceleration of growth of big tech companies in US
There is also FTX contagion (in crypto universe) and soon to be Lehman Brother of 2022, Credit Suisse.
Nasdaq dot-com bubble crisis compared to 2022 bear marketcompared dot-com crisis to current crisis on the Nasdaq / QQQ
Orange line is the money printing graph from the fed- which had never stop printing money during crisis and this time- there's no more $$ printing for quite a while
Time will tell if history repeats it self
Nasdaq dot-com bubble crisis compared to 2022 bear marketcompared dot-com crisis to current crisis on the sp500
Orange line is the money printing graph from the fed- which had never stop printing money during crisis and this time- there's no more $$ printing for quite a while
Time will tell if history repeats it self
Nasdaq Up 4% After Dovish Fed CommentsSeveral tech & healthcare sector stocks making an early bullish run such as AMD, KLA and DXCM after a dovish Federal Reserve comments on slowing down interest rates hike. However, Fed mentioned interest rates may floating around the 5% level until they see interest rates remain low within the next quarter.
Last Dip / Next Bull-Run / April 2023Zoom out to see the whole chart!
This spread graph displays Nasdaq/(Gold*Dollar). The benefits of such a spread graph are:
* Reduces fluctuations from gold or dollar
* Omits short-term/seasonal price changes of assets
The graph technically aligns with my DXY/USM2 analysis. USM2 being US Money Supply. The second spread graph portrays the same indication:
Check out my previous analyses to get a better understanding of spread graphs.
Thanks! :)
S&P 500 Price Action & Economic Data An overview of the market technical analysis from the major indices on the first day of the week prior to major economic data, the NFP. What will impact the market movement this week? We will be looking closely at the commodity market, bond yields, US Dollar and the Gold markets. We also touch on AMD stocks as our watchlist for this week.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis - Daily ChartThe Nasdaq 100 is currently testing the downtrend blue line.
It looks like it has already broken to the upside, but I would wait for a few days for confirmation.
If the price can stay above the downtrend line, it would be a bullish sign.
In August, the price broke above the trendline but it moved again back below it, creating a fake breakout.
The 50-day MA (red moving average) and the 21-day MA (blue moving average) are currently working as support.
It is important to follow the movements of this particular index for the next few days to understand if a new bull run has started.
The market sentiment remains in the "Greed" mode.
PIVOT history hints more downside: Nasdaq prints Deadcat bounce The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality.
Fed Governor Chris Waller said Monday that markets had overestimated the significance of a single data point, and that the U.S. central bank still has “a ways to go” on interest rate hikes.
Several analysts have echoed that sentiment in recent days. BlackRock
Investment Institute said in a note Monday that labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation may be more persistent than the market is pricing.
