Last Dip / Next Bull-Run / April 2023Zoom out to see the whole chart!
This spread graph displays Nasdaq/(Gold*Dollar). The benefits of such a spread graph are:
* Reduces fluctuations from gold or dollar
* Omits short-term/seasonal price changes of assets
The graph technically aligns with my DXY/USM2 analysis. USM2 being US Money Supply. The second spread graph portrays the same indication:
Check out my previous analyses to get a better understanding of spread graphs.
Thanks! :)
IXIC trade ideas
S&P 500 Price Action & Economic Data An overview of the market technical analysis from the major indices on the first day of the week prior to major economic data, the NFP. What will impact the market movement this week? We will be looking closely at the commodity market, bond yields, US Dollar and the Gold markets. We also touch on AMD stocks as our watchlist for this week.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis - Daily ChartThe Nasdaq 100 is currently testing the downtrend blue line.
It looks like it has already broken to the upside, but I would wait for a few days for confirmation.
If the price can stay above the downtrend line, it would be a bullish sign.
In August, the price broke above the trendline but it moved again back below it, creating a fake breakout.
The 50-day MA (red moving average) and the 21-day MA (blue moving average) are currently working as support.
It is important to follow the movements of this particular index for the next few days to understand if a new bull run has started.
The market sentiment remains in the "Greed" mode.
PIVOT history hints more downside: Nasdaq prints Deadcat bounce The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality.
Fed Governor Chris Waller said Monday that markets had overestimated the significance of a single data point, and that the U.S. central bank still has “a ways to go” on interest rate hikes.
Several analysts have echoed that sentiment in recent days. BlackRock
Investment Institute said in a note Monday that labor constraints driving wage growth and core inflation may be more persistent than the market is pricing.
NASDAQ DXY Timeline compared to DOTCOM BubbleThis is roughly where I think we are in this major bear market cycle.
The index is hovering around the 50 Month TEMA and the DXY is having in a large shorter term correction.
IMHO the market is vastly over-reacting to a single monthly CPI datapoint and there's a lot more pain yet to come.
I suspect strongly that the 100 and 200 Monthly TEMA are still in play over the next 12 months.
Market Weakening Hello all,
I am sure you pay some attention to global markets, (US) national matters/news.., etc., you may be noticing a growing sense of uncertainty.
The charts seem to be too.
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Of course, dramatic news can void any chart 'pattern.'
This isnt necessarily a pattern. It is simply weak. The chart looks week, the only way I would consider it a "bull" market again would be touching new ATHs. I put aside any notion of an overinflated market, only for the purposes of this "idea."
What do you think?
I dont think a recession will necessarily come from this, but perhaps as low as 200MA (from the chartside). Opinion only! I am interested in yours.
IXIC (NDX) Logarithmic Long Term Trend Line A long term trend line has been touched on the Nasdaq Composite
This has been seen as a point of great support extending all the way back to the 1980's
Price will likely bounce off this line and continue upwards
This is an addition to chart below, providing support
General Market – True Market Leaders?Here are the dates when the next wave of potential True Market Leaders (TMLs) have broken out.
We are seeing mixed action.
🟨 Yellow notes shows the stocks that are still above their pivot point
🟥 Red shows those who have been more volatile and have breached the pivot point
NASDQAQ BEAR MARKET SUMMARYThe decline in tech stocks is more severe, see angle of decline blue (2022) vs green (2008) vs red (2001). Although this decline is more harsh, it could possibly drop further than the 2001 percentage decline. See the duration of the remainder of the bear markets. 2008 historical shows we need 125 more days to bottom out, the 2001 decline from here still needs more than 200 days remaining to bottom. Which means we could easily see at least another 25% drop from current levels or worse case scenario 50% drop from here in the next 125-200 days. It could play out longer. Maybe if the FED steps in, we could see some type of hope or capitulation but history tells us that it could still fall some more after that. Zero rates would have to be in play for a longer time. Also, we have not have had any bankruptcies yet besides a few crypto coins and companies, yes, a lot of momentum and tech stocks are getting crushed, but no bankruptcies yet... the bankruptcies will indicate a bottom due to the next round of bailouts and easy money which would land us into hyper inflation probably by the year 2027. The only way we can go down quickly is in a 1987 flash crash or "black Monday" than the timeline would be met satisfactory.
Nasdaq Mid term review 23-Oct-22Nasdaq Mid term review 23-Oct-22
Nasdaq might rally to 12131 in short term (Dec 22) , recent low of near to 10000 is a major support. However expected to fall to 9150/8900 ( Feb -Mar 23) in medium term for further reversal.
RSI is 44%, MACD signal is negative.
Inflation is still in gloomy position.
IXIC - Long-awaited Bull signalComment :
1) IXIC has been fall more than 20% since previous peak on 16-Aug, bear signal appear next day from top. And today, it finally shows up Bull signal, indicating a short-term rebound. Short-term supporting price is lowest of 17-Oct that is 10569.69, this point must not be broke else the rebound will be ended.
2) TrendX+ indicator - candleestick moving below red trendline, mid-term downtrend underway.
3) DDX+ indicator - Bull signal shows up, looking forward a short-term long position.
4) MCDX+ indicator - weak, a little of banker bar (red), while retailer bar (turquoise) has occupy more than 50%.
Support & Resistance :
S : 10569.69 +/-
DISCLAIMER :
Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
Nasdaq- What's Next?Been a while posting about Nasdaq composite index (or Nasdaq) so here is an update:
Fundamentals are scary as we all know.
Russians are preparing for a 'second round' of attacks on Kiev and no political solutions or a serious attempt is expected soon. It's a major issue for the global economy.
Time will be pushing Putin as well, trust me. So we might hopefully see the end of this soon but NOT yet... 😰🙏🌐
In the meantime the Dollar is killing all other currencies and that's an ice cream nobody likes to take. Unless you are Biden (www.hindustantimes.com) 🫥💩
European economy is flirting with a recession and protests arise (twitter.com) in France🇫🇷 (twitter.com)Italy🇮🇹Belgium🇧🇪Germany🇩🇪 and other countries. Europeans are getting pissed off...🤬
In the meantime in England Liz Truss (or short term expiring trash) (twitter.com) can not have a 'pivot' so there goes everyone else's hopium of seeing lower interest rates back that soon..
Donald Trump 🎃 is attempting a rebound of his own to 'Save America' this time (he made is great again the last time?) (www.dailymail.co.uk)
In the meantime we expect a new 75basis Rate hike by the Feds.
Finally, something we haven't seen before:
the Chinese postponed releasing their GDP (www.bloomberg.com) today. No reason offered!
In other words:
the Fundamentals are BAD 🙀 but regardless:
we always follow the chart!
Chart shows resistance at 11030-11043 and possible visit below the 10,000 mark to 9040 or even 8455
Not a good chart but things do change fast and will keep you posted.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
8892 on Nasdaq is imminent. It’s again quite simple. 8892 is only 10% lower from here. That’s just still not enough PE compression. We are still up 525% since January 2010. That’s ridiculous. Purely liquidity melt-up not based on any fundamentals. Earnings were also a garage.. If you know this now you’ll take the red pill and understand how Marcus will work going forward and how they always should have worked. Not 0% rates and unlimited quantitive, easing or QE . QT will be massive and constant for years. With rate hikes for foreseeable future. Period. At best. $200 a share for the S&P. Morgan Stanley had it at $190 a share. $200 a share X 14X equals 2800. Now that’s at best. On Nasdaq. Ultimately. After this failed 15 year fed experiment. And PPI sand CPI much higher than anything reported tomorrow or anytime, this will be an extremely deep recession. And 15-20% chance of a depression.
Fed funds rate must be above the CPI rate. This is economics 101. Terminal rate will be north of 7%. Not 4%. The Fed will not stop. No matter what, so follow these “God Fibonacci levels” to the tee. Because the market probably has 20% more to fall at a minimum. And then you can talk about at least being somewhat close to properly priced. Everything is overvalued, especially the NASDAQ, which is the worst and S&P. be smart. Energy. Some healthcare, And qqq puts and spy puts. Nov/December time frame. Very important to have a good amount of QQQ and SPY puts. This is what the revenues are made. To hedge your portfolio and gain from times once in every hundred years a lottery ticket. Watch implied Vol. so you don’t over pay. And for godsakes, SELL EVERY SINGLE RALLY WITHOUT HESITATION. EVERY RALLY. Good luck
This is where we are 100% heading It’s not difficult right now to understand that all the indexes are over value. S&P 500. Morgan Stanley today though I don’t need them brought S&P earnings to $190 a share. So 190×14 X equals 2660 on the S&P 500. NASDAQ 9000 is where I have been for many many years. It’s again not very hard to understand. 15 year failed federal reserve experiment with 9 trillion on the books and about 1000 head wins to zero tail winds.
IXIC , NDQ , NAZDAQ ANALYSIS , 1 WEEKI analyzed the Nasdaq index in the weekly time frame for you
If until the closing of the weekly candle, the power and body of the candle is as strong as possible
there is a high probability that the price will increase until Fibonacci 50%, and
then the price will drop sharply.
NDQ/NDX/IXIC | Exactly the same (except the blow-off top)Please read to the end, for a probable explanation that falsifies this one.
We are living the precise events that led up to the 2000 .com bubble burst and the subsequent 2001 recession. Now however, there was no blow-off-top event to make the two events identical.
Back in 1998, there was a "black swan" event, which was more apparent in DJI/SPX. This was caused by a crisis in Russia's economy. In 2019, a world-wide crisis caused the well-known crash. The progress after it is completely identical.
This can be further validated if you compare fundamentals. And also analyze DJI/SPX/NYA.
Much of the damage may have already occurred. But much more pain remains, perhaps immense. Germany is about to collapse (or already collapsed). Also war, food/water crisis, inflation, a destroyed production chain, are not ingredients for growth.
I am also adding this chart, which shows that probably the worst is coming, since it looks like we are barely falling.
PS. And now follows a conspiracy story:
Let there be a very rich man, who wants to be even richer. Since he is so wealthy, he could cause an earthquake. He would shake the box of economy, up and down at the time he pleases. And he confused the people, because the box of economy has taken a shape we all have seen before. In the era of information, who can't possibly see what is in front of him? Who on earth could not have possibly remembered the shape in front of them?
And as a different story said, everyone but a child could see the kings clothes (the king was nude).
And everyone feared, and sold everything they had to save themselves. And the rich man shook the box again and again, until it looked like we landed. And everyone thought that they were safe because it looked like it, and they bought again. And everything went up again. And the king was happy, because everyone saw his clothes, everyone followed him, and everyone bought when he wished...
And at the right time, he cracked the box and took your money. What an anticlimatic end to a story!
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Nasdaq composite vs. USM2it really feels like a coin flip...the SPX/USM2 looks very similar to 2000 bubble times...if history repeats we are a blowoff top away before the big cahuna...macro is what it is, not much can be done about that, but i'm sure they were saying the same things during every scary bear time previously. For those who think we went too high, well vs the money supply we didn't come close to the dot come bubble. For me, i believe in one massive blowoff top, not because of market strength or economic strength...but IMO all these old politicians and private oligarchs will push for one more massive golden parachute before riding off into the sunset. Retail, at least in my are, are afraid, most people around me are in the, "i'm not even watching the markets" phase. Just my two pennies worth, all the best.