JXY trade ideas
Japan YenJPY rebounded from the strong resistance zone. Will JPY make a come back as investor start reconsidering JPY back to Safe Haven status?
Japanese Yen Currency Index (JXY)Longer term, I am monitoring JXY for a potential breakdown below the incline support going back to June 2015 which would represent a continuation of the long term downward trend going back to the price peak of February 2012. A break below this level would mean a continued weakening of the Japanese Yen versus selected currency pairs and potentially sets up the country’s equity index, the Nikkei225, for an appreciation as constituents benefit from a weakening local currency.
Jpy pairs- where nextIn 2019 we had what, at that point, seemed to be a break to the upside (Jpy pairs weakness) of a triangle. The beginning of March came with a big reversal from 100 zone resistance and Jpy index is trading now at 90 support zone. I expect this support to be broken and 2020 be dominated by Jpy weakness (JPY pairs uptrend)
JXY The U.S. House passed a $7.8 billion emergency spending bill to fund the response to the virus, Canada cut interest rates, and expectations are the ECB will reduce borrowing costs next week. Covid-19 deaths surpassed 3,000 in China, though a virus-testing blitz appears to be helping in South Korea. California called a state of emergency, underscoring the global spread of the disease, while Irish leaders are under mounting pressure to accelerate coalition talks.
Oil gained in Asian trade as the emergency U.S. spending bill improved sentiment. Earlier, prices fell as Russia and Saudi Arabia split over whether deeper supply cuts are required to offset the demand hit. While the kingdom was pushing for a reduction as big as 1.5 million barrels a day, Russia favored maintaining output at current levels through the end of the second quarter. The divide looked set to continue today, when OPEC holds its full ministerial meeting.
Airbus is considering a production cut for its A330neo after AirAsia X, the jet's biggest customer, deferred deliveries because of the virus, people familiar said. United will cut international flights by up to 20% in April, trim its domestic schedule by 10%, freeze hiring and offer some workers unpaid leave. Trump hasn't discussed financial support for the airline industry even as demand is expected to drop for the first time in 11 years.
The U.S. defeated a Chinese bid to run the UN's intellectual property agency, a victory in the Trump administration's push to convince countries of the threat posed by China. The U.S.-backed candidate, Daren Tang of Singapore, won by a vote of 55-28 over China's Wang Binying among governments voting for the leadership of the organization, which helps develop cross-border policies on intellectual property.
Joe Biden's resurgence knocked Mike Bloomberg out of the presidential race. The former VP's stunning Super Tuesday showing essentially narrowed the Democratic field to a two-person contest with Bernie Sanders, forcing Elizabeth Warren to reassess her bid. Bloomberg endorsed Biden, who now leads in the delegate count in a striking turnaround from a week ago. Sanders calls the contest a conflict of ideas.
JXYAustralia, say hello to the lower bound. Traders price in at least a 25 basis-point rate cut by the RBA and a slight chance of 50 bps, taking the benchmark down to 0.25%. At that point, discussion would shift to the kind of unconventional monetary policy needed, Bloomberg Economics said, pointing the risks to growth posed by Covid-19 and drought. The yield on the nation's 10-year bond may go negative as a result, BlackRock said. Malaysian policy makers, who also meet Tuesday, may cut by 25 bps to 2.5% in the face of both a domestic political crisis and the virus.
South Korean inflation probably slowed in February as the coronavirus put the brakes on recent acceleration, Bloomberg Economics said. Consensus is for the year-on-year gain in CPI to slow to 1.3% from 1.5%, with prices flat from January. Final fourth-quarter GDP, also due today, may affirm initial readings of 2.2% growth from a year earlier and 1.2% from the prior three months.
Hong Kong will avoid the kind of property market crash that followed previous economic slumps, Financial Secretary Paul Chan told Bloomberg TV. Unlike after SARS, the city has short supply, flush liquidity and historically low interest rates, he said. Separately, the city's retail sales by value fell 21.4% in January from a year earlier, their 12th straight month of declines as the coronavirus succeeded civil unrest in disrupting tourism.
ECB supervisory board chair Andrea Enria is meeting early resistance to proposals for boosting M&A in the continent's banking industry, people familiar said. A majority of the board's members signaled at a meeting last week that they were skeptical of or outright opposed to allowing banks to move liquid funds from one country to another, a key element of his proposal. While there was no formal vote, the opposition risks delaying or even derailing the efforts.
Understanding Safe Haven Assets In Respect to CoronaVirusSafe Haven Assets are a set of financial instrument that retain or gain value in times of economic downturn. We are definitely moving towards critical times with the spread of Coronavirus moving faster than the speed of light. As we have seen the negative effects of Cov19 on Major Stock indexes, its adverse effects on Corporate earnings and the harsh presence it occupies on a global scale, Major stock indexes such as Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has plummeted about 2% or say 500 basis points as of today, the S&P 500 doing same coughing out about 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.7% respectively. We have also seen the USDJPY lost nearly 100% of its gain in the last one week all due to Investors panic.
This been said, Safe Haven Assets such as Gold (XAU), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) have all increased significantly in value because of their nature to retain or gain during market chaos. Understanding this will enable traders know more about market movements and make trading decisions based on logic and numbers. There are several instances of economic downturn like the US-China trade war which caused market instability for a while but for the purpose of this of adding knowledge about Safe Haven Assets I will stop here and I hope this help.
Gracias !
possible short term short on jpy pairsJXY looks to be forming a temporary short position other JPY related pairs seem to follow this too
JXY long (Correlation)Hello Traders !
JPY Index is good for Correlation.
We can see that the price is right now at the Support line. I expect it to go up.
All XXXJPY pairs should drop now. They fit to all other analysis I made on XXXJPY pairs like GBPJPY, USDJPY, ...
Let me now in the comment section below your view on GBPJPY and what you think about my Analysis.
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Thank you and we will see next time
- Darius.
