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Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 18 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - BUY. On the W TF, it can be seen that price finally broke through a resistance level that held strong for 6 weeks (marked by numbers). After price broke through, it is now retesting this level to see if resistance is now turned to support. This zone also represents the W and D 0.618 fib level (drawn from swing low at C. to swing high at D.) Because the Day and the Week fib levels are the same, we have a kind of TF confluence, which makes this level very strong. As the overall trend of Nasdaq is bullish, I choose to see last week as a massive retracement but not an overall trend change for Nas. Morning analysis: At this level (the W level highlighted in yellow), price is seen to start reacting to this level. There are DB forming on the 15min TF and the 30min TF. This gives me confidence that buyers are stepping in at this zone. Also, on the 4H TF we have not seen price retesting any of the higher level TF's, so a bullish move is expected to at least retest this bearish move. As the day progressed: Entered a buy at the hand icon (A.) - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - DB formed on the 15min TF after touching the W+D 0.618 fib level. 2. S&R - DB formed right at the strong Weekly S&R level marked in yellow on the W view 3. Trend - price has finally started making higher highs and higher lows (indicating that price is ready to start moving up) and a buy is in the overall direction of Nasdaq - the trend is your friend 4. Fib - W+D 0.618 fib level touched + DB formed at 1H 0.618 fib level Mental SL placed below green highlight. Price moved up 1'200 pips and I secured my position at entry. I wanted to hold for a larger move because ultimately a DB formed on the 1H TF and the neckline was broken with a huge momentum candle. But price came back down and took me out. I re-entered at the hand icon B. for a more swing trade kind of entry, because we have a DB on the 1H and the 4H TF. Mental stop placed at the thick pink line, which is about half the height of the DB. But it's a risky entry because the stop is soooo far below where price currently is. So a SL hit woud mean a big loss. Hope you had a good trading day! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Title: NAS100 Analysis Update: Higher Low Formed, Attempting BreHere’s the updated analysis for NAS100 based on the new price action and context provided: Updated Analysis and Trade Idea: The NAS100 has deviated from the previous bearish expectations by forming a higher low at the 20,400 level, signaling renewed bullish strength. On the 4H timeframe, the price is now testing structure highs near 20,610, suggesting a potential shift in momentum toward the upside. Here’s the updated outlook: Key Observations: 1. Higher Low at 20,400: • The price failed to break below the initial support at 20,400, confirming it as a strong demand zone. This indicates that buyers have stepped in aggressively, supporting a potential trend reversal. 2. Break of Structure Attempt: • With the Ask price at 20,611.0 and Bid price at 20,610.2, the market is making a strong attempt to break through the structure highs near 20,650-20,700. A sustained breakout above this level could invalidate the previous bearish bias and open the door for higher targets. 3. Shift in Momentum: • The formation of a higher low alongside increasing buying pressure suggests a possible continuation of the bullish trend. However, confirmation is still required via a clean break and close above the resistance zone. Updated Key Levels: • Immediate Resistance: 20,650-20,700 zone. A breakout here could lead to further upside momentum. • Support Zone: 20,400 remains a critical level for bullish continuation. • Upside Targets: • Target 1: 20,850 • Target 2: 21,000 (aligned with the previous major resistance zone). Trade Plan Update: • Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout • Entry: Look for a breakout and 4H close above 20,650. Enter long positions on a retest of the breakout level. • Stop Loss: Below 20,400 to account for invalidation of the higher low structure. • Take Profit: • TP1: 20,850 • TP2: 21,000 • Scenario 2: Range Continuation • If the price fails to break above 20,650 and consolidates, wait for confirmation of direction. Re-entry short positions are valid if the price breaks below 20,400, targeting 20,000 as the next major demand zone. Conclusion: The NAS100’s higher low at 20,400 signals a potential shift in momentum as the price challenges key resistance at 20,650-20,700. Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout to capitalize on further upside, while also preparing for a rejection and reversion to range-bound conditions if the breakout fails. This is a critical juncture, and risk management remains key to navigating either scenario. This update reflects the change in market structure while providing actionable scenarios for y’all! ~Peace
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by tyquanfoster185
1
NAS100USD: Bullish Opportunity Targeting Premium Liquidity!Greetings Traders! Brief Description🖊️: Currently, NAS100USD is showing bullish institutional order flow, presenting opportunities to capitalize on the upside. The focus is on targeting liquidity pools within premium price levels. Things I Have Seen👀: Discount Entry Zone🟢: Price has retraced to discount levels, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci level, offering a favorable range for buy orders. Support and Confluences🔗: Price is at a significant support area, where multiple discount arrays—including a Fair Value Gap (FVG), breaker block, and order block—align. This confluence strengthens the bullish case. Trading Plan🎯: Key Zones to Monitor : Look for confirmation entries at the identified support zones. Targets: The liquidity pools within premium price levels are the primary objectives. Current Position📈: I have already entered this setup upon receiving confirmation. Ensure you perform your own analysis and trade with a clear plan. Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
4
NASDAQ: Touched the 4H MA200 and MACD Bullish Cross forming.Nasdaq turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.926, MACD = 156.450, ADX = 29.632) as the price pulled back aggressively to the point that it reached the 4H MA200 again for the first time since the elections day. With the exception of Oct 31st, this level hasn't been touched since September 11th, as the trend is rising inside a Channel Up. The 4H MACD will form tomorrow a Bullish Cross, which has been an early buy signal on the previous bottoms. We expect a new bullish wave to begin. We aim again for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) like the two bullish waves of the pattern. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
1
US100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis - Where To Next?👀👉 The US100 has recently experienced a pullback, leaving traders wondering: what’s next? While the higher time frame trend remains bullish, last week’s deep retracement has carried into today. At this point, it’s a matter of waiting for the market to settle and observing how price action unfolds, particularly after the New York session. I’m leaning toward looking for a buy opportunity, but this depends on a bullish structural break—specifically, a break above the current previous high on the 4-hour timeframe. Selling isn’t part of my plan right now, as the chart and volume profile reveal strong support levels below, which are clearly highlighted in the analysis. 📊 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by fxtraderanthony
1
Price Action Analysis: Bearish Continuation or Bullish ReversalTechnical Analysis: The price experienced a significant decline of approximately 3.9% over the past week, as previously highlighted. Currently, a potential retest of the 20550 or 20660 levels is anticipated. Sustained stability below these levels would reinforce the bearish trend, paving the way for a decline toward 20330, with a further drop to 20130 if this level is breached. On the other hand, if the price stabilizes above 20660, confirmed by a 1-hour or 4-hour candle close, it would signal a shift to a bullish trend, targeting a move toward 20860. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20550 Resistance Levels: 20660, 20860, 21070 Support Levels: 20330, 20130, 19950 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 20550 and 20660 Bullish above 20660
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
30-mins US100: Heavy Selling in the US Tech In recent trading sessions, investors have been selling off the NASDAQ 100 index to secure profits, leading to a substantial drop of 1,000 points since last week. This decline has been accompanied by a clear technical signal of bearish momentum: a "Death Cross," where the 20-period moving average (MA) has fallen below the 60-period MA, indicating a strong sell signal and confirming the downtrend. Today, the index found temporary support, initiating a modest pullback that briefly pushed prices above the 20,495 level, aligning with the 23% Fibonacci retracement. If buying pressure persists, the index could potentially rally towards 20,620 (38% Fib level) or even 20,720, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. These levels could serve as key resistance zones and present attractive entry points for traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish momentum by initiating new short positions. Entering short trades at these higher resistance points allows traders to follow the dominant downward trend while minimizing risk, should a stronger pullback occur.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Trendsharks
NAS100 - Nasdaq will reach above 21,000?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the two specified supply zones, you can look for NASDAQ sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq's buying position is in the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement, and considering the downward sentiment at the end of the week, it should be saved quickly. China’s Export Restrictions and Their Impact on Global Supply Chains • China Tightens Export Controls: Starting December 1, China will implement new regulations to tighten export restrictions on critical metals and raw materials, including tungsten, graphite, magnesium, and aluminum alloys, essential for the technology sector. • China’s Objectives: These measures are part of a broader strategy to manage sensitive exports and protect national interests. • Global Market Impact: The new restrictions are expected to disrupt global technology supply chains and introduce volatility in related markets. Zelensky’s Perspective on Trump’s Presidency • Zelensky’s Comments: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war in Ukraine could end sooner if Donald Trump returns to the White House. • Constructive Interaction with Trump: Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine successfully communicated its vision for peace to Trump, and he observed no opposition from Trump regarding Ukraine’s stance. • Implications of Zelensky’s Remarks: These comments reflect Ukraine’s hope for continued international support to expedite the resolution of the conflict. US Economic Forecasts • Q3 Earnings Reports from Major Companies: This week, companies such as NVIDIA and TARGET will release their third-quarter (Q3) earnings reports. • Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. • The current Federal Funds rate range is 4.5% to 4.75%, which Rieder considers restrictive. • Following the December cut, the Fed is expected to pause temporarily to reassess future adjustments. Jerome Powell’s Statements and Market Reactions • Powell on a Strong US Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the robust performance of the US economy, stating there is no urgency to lower interest rates. • Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Powell stressed that decisions should be made carefully due to uncertainties surrounding the neutral rate level. • Market Reaction: These statements reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
Anticipating a Major Market Shift NASDAQ: Key Levels 1. Wave Structure and Elliott Wave Analysis Wave 5 and Volume Divergence: The left chart appears to highlight an extended Wave 5 with a possible volume divergence, which typically signals the end of an impulsive movement and can indicate a potential trend reversal. Complex Wave Structure (Weekly Perspective): The larger time-frame view is labeling a complex wave sequence, with sharp corrections and shallow retracements that indicate areas of key resistance and support. 4-Hour Chart (Right Side): Shows a corrective pattern forming after a series of impulsive moves, with annotations of potential Elliott wave substructures. This includes labels such as Wave iii, iv, and v, which suggest a detailed fractal analysis within the larger trend. 2. Key Levels and Fibo Retracements Key Fibonacci Levels: The chart highlights multiple Fibonacci retracement levels like 0.618, 0.5, and 1.236 across different parts of the wave structure, essential for identifying retracement and extension targets. POC and VAL (Point of Control and Value Area Low): The Point of Control (POC) and Value Area Low (VAL) levels suggest key areas of market interest and volume profile zones. Traders often use these as points for potential reversals or continuations. 3. Support and Resistance Zones Bullish and Bearish Order Blocks (OB): The chart points out zones of "Bullish OB" and "Resistance Line BC Distribution." These zones may act as supply or demand areas, where price reactions can be anticipated due to prior order flow activity. Sell Side and Buy Side Liquidity Levels (SSL & BSL): Important liquidity zones are highlighted where traders place stop-loss orders. These levels often become targets during market moves, as liquidity is a major driver for institutional traders. 4. Invalidation Points and Critical Structure Wave Invalidation Levels: Marked invalidation levels provide insight into where the current wave structure would be negated, indicating a possible shift in trend. For instance, invalidation points in Waves I and IV set the limits for maintaining the integrity of the Elliott wave pattern. Order Flow Zones: Notes about "Order Flow" and "Inducement" suggest areas where the current market bias could shift, reflecting zones where traders may be trapped, or liquidity is pursued. 5. Market Sentiment and Trader Psychology Notes Inducement and Fake Breakouts: The chart suggests areas where fake breakouts or “inducements” are used to trap retail traders, followed by a strong reversal in the opposite direction. Wave Extensions and Momentum Continuation: By labeling “momentum continuation,” it hints at areas where minimal resistance may allow for a strong directional move, especially in alignment with the higher time-frame trend. 6. Potential Trading Scenarios Reversal Opportunities at Key Levels: Should price hit critical Fibonacci extensions or volume divergence zones, it might signal exhaustion and a reversal. Trend Continuation if Invalidation Holds: If key invalidation levels remain intact, the wave structure may support continued movement within the impulsive or corrective phase. Liquidity Run and Stop-Hunt Scenarios: Annotations related to liquidity levels (like SSL and BSL) suggest potential stop-hunt areas, where price may temporarily break these levels before reversing sharply.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by spaceangel
1
NAS100 potential short set up from key resistance level Analysis and trade idea: The NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) is currently exhibiting significant bearish pressure after a notable uptrend that faced resistance around the 21,000-21,100 level. This area aligns with a strong supply zone where multiple rejections have occurred, suggesting sellers are actively defending this region. Technical Breakdown: • 4-Hour Chart Analysis: The NAS100 made a lower high after failing to break above the 21,100 resistance. The price action has since shown signs of exhaustion, forming a double-top pattern which indicates a potential reversal. • Key Levels: • Immediate Resistance: 21,100 - 21,150 zone. The price has repeatedly failed to close above this level, confirming it as a key resistance. • Current Price: 20,551.8 (Bid price), which aligns with the middle of a consolidation range and just below a key pivot level. • Support Zones: • Initial support around 20,300-20,400. • Stronger demand zone is identified between 20,000 and 19,900, which previously acted as a major support floor. • Price Action & Fibonacci Confluence: The rejection from the resistance zone coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high to low, indicating a potential pullback. Additionally, price is testing a blue liquidity zone, suggesting a possible fakeout before a deeper correction. Trade Plan: • Entry: Looking for short entries around the 20,550 - 20,650 area after a bearish confirmation (e.g., a rejection candle or a break below 20,550). • Stop Loss: Placing a stop loss above the recent high at 21,200 to avoid getting caught in any false breakouts. • Take Profit: • First Target: 20,300 level where price may find initial support. • Second Target: 19,900 area, which aligns with a significant demand zone and could provide a more extended downside move. Risk Management: The trade setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, aiming for at least a 2:1 reward-to-risk. By using dynamic trailing stops once the first target is hit, we can lock in profits while allowing the trade to capture a larger move if the bearish momentum persists. Summary: Given the current bearish setup, NAS100 presents an opportunity to short from key resistance zones with well-defined stop losses above the recent highs. The technical confluence of supply zones, Fibonacci levels, and price action signals increase the probability of a downside move. Traders should remain vigilant for any reversal signs, especially if NAS100 breaks above the 21,150 mark, which could invalidate this setup.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by tyquanfoster185
1