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NAS100 - A Small Inkling of a Ceiling?20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: 1HR TF is showing development of a bearish order block Possible re-test of key confluence, now support Keynote! The bull trend rapidly changed angle to almost vertical previous sessions. Short sellers are circling on sideline... Institutions are hunting liquidity and/or maximizing profits for year-end closing of long positions. The FED (Powell) mentioning further rate cuts: (Only for above mentioned purpose naturally!!) I have made a note on these promises exactly at this time of year, which will also drive US stocks up far beyond overbought prices. Since 2022, rate cut promises @ year end never materialized until second half of the following year, or only the last quarter of the following year. With new administration taking over in January, this time It might be different, and I might be wrong! I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
ICMARKETS:USTECShort
by ANROC
NASDAQ-100 NEEDS MORE CLARITY TO MOVE INDEX FORWARD!Last week, the NASDAQ-100 established key levels for both sellers and buyers. As we head into the next trading week, price rejection at either of these levels will likely determine the index's direction. While the weekly outlook remains bullish, a bearish close this week could lead to further deterioration of the index. N.B! - NAS100USD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #nas100usd #nasdaq
OANDA:NAS100USD
by BullBearMkt
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument Part 10A video version of this commentary is included in the youtube link in my tradingiew profile. As I have always said; "Any sells on the NAS100 are only temporary retracements to register a HL on a larger timeframe." With Last weeks interest rate decision, a lot of volatility and panic was created by sellers reacting with panic as usual and the buyers capitalized on that by being patient and waiting for the storm to subsize. The retracement took an entire week to come to a close and it was not until Friday that I saw the H1 timeframe breaking back in a bullish structure to close out the week of retracements to form a HL on the daily timeframe. With the weekly candle expired again, it will be just a matter of time before the trend resumes it's responsibilities to complete another ATH. So for this week, nothing has changed and I will continue to wait for my largest HL and buy to my Guaranteed ATH. Remember to practice Use proper risk management practice on your demo accounts until you are comfortable Trust your analysis #oneauberstrategy #auberstrategy #aubersystem #zigzagtheory #whywewait #patience
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Auberstrategy
NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 19 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night News - None Directional bias - BUY Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour. Morning analysis: FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor. 4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level. A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line). Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls. In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy. If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets. It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy. As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction. Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon. Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards. 2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area. 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards 4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level 5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level. Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB. Price moved up well. Now for setting TP's. Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions). But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious. The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones. Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards. I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes. I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits. Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open. Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down. I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for. I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations. You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better. Looks now like the market has turned bearish. Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken. The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up. Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;) Stats: The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips: I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
My McClellan Oscillator Graph - Up or Down in the Markets?This is a huge factor to watch, something to consider, Santa Claus Rally expected, or not? I have had many financial analysts for decades always point out this chart when the markets seem toppy or indecisive. The Dow has closed 9 days in a row, first time since the 70s, that's quite interesting, let's watch to see if the theory behind this indicator proves we are in for a rally as I expect. The markets always tend to go higher more than one might think.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Trance-Man
NAS100 - Possible Outcome20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends: (Away from charts) It will be prudent to give your mind, body and soul a good rest, to recharge for the new upcoming exciting year! How I see it: NASDAQ VERY bullish, so I believe LONG 1st. Resistance between 21965 - 22000 If it gets that far, and if resistance holds, Possible correction back to 21750 Keynote! Alot of data this week. Trade safe as the year is coming to an end. I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
ICMARKETS:USTEC
by ANROC
NAS100 - Nasdaq, the only green index last week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. The valid failure of the previous ATH will provide the conditions for the continuation of the rise of this index. The Economist predicts that as 2025 approaches, the U.S. economy is in a highly favorable position. It expects a soft economic landing in the upcoming year, meaning the U.S. will successfully reduce inflation to its 2% target without harming economic growth. While analysts previously forecasted a recession for the U.S., Washington now stands out as the only major economy whose output exceeds pre-pandemic trends. This year, the Nasdaq index has significantly outperformed other major U.S. stock market indices. The primary reason is the heavy weighting of tech stocks in the index. Technology stocks, particularly the “Big Seven” tech giants, have seen remarkable growth due to the AI revolution and market optimism.On the other hand, the Dow Jones index, which is more focused on industrial stocks, has lagged behind Nasdaq despite notable gains. The United States is preparing new restrictions on AI chips to block China’s indirect access to this technology. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, these restrictions aim to prevent China from using hidden pathways to obtain AI chips. Sources familiar with the plan revealed that the U.S. intends to hold companies like Google and Microsoft accountable for managing access to advanced AI chips. The most significant economic event this week is the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2024, set to be announced on Wednesday. Markets are already anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but attention will focus on the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference. Traders will look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the upcoming year. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which could have a global market impact. Key economic data on American consumer health will also be released this week. On Tuesday, the November retail sales report will provide fresh insights into consumer behavior during the holiday season. Moreover, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed—will be released, potentially clarifying the direction of future monetary policy. Other important economic data include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the S&P Global PMI leading index, both set for release on Monday. On Thursday, critical figures such as the final Q3 GDP growth rate, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, November existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims will also be published. Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but the pace of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be slow. Due to sticky inflation and some inflationary policies from Donald Trump, economists anticipate only three rate cuts in 2025. The U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by the country’s economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, believe buying the dollar at this point may be a mistake, as there is a downside risk for the currency. Based on their discussions, many investors expect the dollar index to rise further. Morgan Stanley argues that positive news is already fully priced into the dollar and that markets may be overestimating the speed, scope, and impact of economic measures.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND