NDQ trade ideas
Good times still to roll on after correction.Bear flag forming at the edge of the channel. The flag pole came down with good volume and flag itself (consolidation) on decrease volume therefore good probability of more downside. If that happens that could create a Wycoff spring and resume the current trend.
Nas 3/31/2025I am working on looking at the bigger picture, and this is what I am seeing with NAS.
I do not have the percentages and what not correct on my GANN box just FYI, but that would be the zone I am watching. I think she may go a little higher, but then after that, there is a strong support line from August 2024 not far below, that I think she will continue to drop down too, and then decide which trend she want's to go for from there. lol
Yes, NAS is a girl to me.
She is too indecisive, not to be, lol
NAS100 - Stock market still in a downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down, it will be clear that it is heading for further moves. At the channel ceiling, I could be close to the next sell-off.
As the new US tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, new evidence suggests that they may be less than the markets had expected. According to a recent report in the Toronto Star, Canada is likely to face the lowest level of tariffs, while Mexico, another member of the US trade agreement, is likely to face a similar situation. In addition, Trump’s recent statements about significant progress in controlling fentanyl (an industrial drug), are seen as a positive sign for improving trade relations.
In this regard, CNBC reported that VAT and non-tariff barriers will not be taken into account in calculating the tariff rate, or at least not fully. The main concern is that by threatening to impose a 25% tariff, Trump is actually preparing Canada and Mexico to accept higher rates than the current conditions. It seems that his goal is to impose the highest possible tariff level. This decision could be an incentive to increase tariff revenue to reduce taxes. Of course, such an approach is associated with high risks, since any level of tariffs can lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners.
In the case of Europe, tariffs imposed on American goods are higher than in other countries, but a large part of them relate to the automotive industry. Europe has previously announced that it is ready to reduce these tariffs. The question now is whether the EU will take a different approach than Mexico and Canada? That is, first impose higher tariffs and then negotiate to reduce them.
This scenario could ultimately benefit the US economy, as the bulk of its trade is with Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, China remains a complex challenge, as it is the main target of Trump’s tariff policies. In addition, the US president recently proposed imposing tariffs on Venezuela, which could be a pretext for intensifying trade pressure on China. Polls show that 50% of the market expects new tariffs on China, which indicates the level of investor concern.
The European Union has reacted to the Trump administration’s decision to impose new tariffs on imported cars and expressed regret over the move. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc will seek a negotiated solution to ease tensions, but she has also stressed that Europe’s economic interests will be protected against US trade policies.
The US credit rating has risen to a new low, according to a new report from Moody’s, which warns that tax cuts and trade tariffs could widen the country’s budget deficit.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say investors expect the effective tariff rate on all imports to be between 9% and 10%, although some analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested a rate of 18%. However, inflation and exchange rate expectations point to lower figures.
If Trump’s promise of “reciprocal tariffs” is implemented, the effective tariff rate could be even lower than 5 percent, although this depends on whether the agricultural sector is also subject to tariffs. Some reports also suggest that non-tariff barriers may be completely ignored.
According to Deutsche Bank, it is very difficult to determine market expectations precisely. But if the tariff rate ultimately falls between 5 and 7.5 percent, markets are likely to react with more confidence. Otherwise, more volatility and turbulence in financial markets are expected.
At the beginning of the year, markets were in a positive and optimistic mood. The Republican victory in the election, the continuation of tax breaks and the possibility of new support packages were among the factors that reinforced this optimism.
However, factors such as the high US budget deficit, the deadlock in Congress and the high inflation rate have now challenged this optimism. Meanwhile, two important support tools that were effective in the past may no longer be as effective:
1. During Trump’s first term, the stock market was of particular importance to him. Even during the COVID-19 crisis, he constantly talked about the stock market and considered it part of his successes.
The term “Put Trump” meant that even if he made harsh statements, he ultimately acted in the market’s favor.
2. But now, in Trump’s second administration, he talks about “short-term pain” and “economic detoxification.” Tariff threats, reduced investment and policy uncertainty have caused the S&P 500 to fall 10% since February. Trump still considers the market important, but he is no longer as staunchly supportive of it as he used to be.
In addition, this week will include the release of a series of key economic data. Including:
• Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS.
• Wednesday: ADP Private Employment Report
•Thursday: ISM services index and weekly jobless claims.
One of the big risks to the markets is that economic data remains weak while the ISM price sub-indices rise. Such a situation could signal a deflationary tailwind. In such a situation, even if the Federal Reserve moves to lower interest rates, it will still be difficult for the stock market to grow.
NASDAQ Bullish Reversal (Potential Tariff Resolution?) NASDAQ price action went through a massive correction with a drop from the top worth approx. 14%.
However after the passing of the latest FOMC Meeting, we may finally see a direction towards the resolution of widespread tariff based uncertainty across the macro economic landscape.
This presents us with a potential Reversal opportunity if we see the formation of a credible Higher High (given a potential proper break out) on the 4 HR and shorter timeframes.
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 20045
Stop Loss @ 19070
TP 0.9 - 1 @ 20923 - 21020
2018 - "this time it'll be different"Not really.
Market sentiment echoes an unstable whiplashing and overcooked economy that is accompanied by a hawkish Fed unwilling to slash rates. Sound familiar? So let's overlay 2018 and see if that's when the twists and turns come....
Apr 2 low, Apr 14 high, May 5 low.
As good a guess as any right?
NASDAQ 100 IndexThe price has already dropped to the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
If this support line is also broken, the next support level is the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
nas updateThis Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For educational Purpose to Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView
NAS100 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
Nas100 initially showed signs of recovery with some bullish momentum. However, in the last three days of the week, the market sentiment shifted, breaking key support zones at 19,880.00, 19,400.00, and 19,151.00. This drop was driven by growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a more pessimistic inflation outlook.
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 19,400.00
📉 Support: 19,151.00 – If broken, price may drop further.
🔹 Market Structure:
🚀 Bullish scenario: Rejection of 19,151.00 & break of 19,400.00 → Retest → Target higher levels.
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Break of 19,151.00 → Drop to 18,796.10 → Further decline if broken.
📌 Risk Management: Wait for confirmation of breakout or rejection before entering trades.
Rebound Failed, market will be driven by news events next week(The following is merely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.)
From Monday to Wednesday this week, the Nasdaq continued last week's rebound and reached the initial rebound target of 20,256, as previously mentioned. However, on Wednesday, the price began to pull back and filled Monday’s gap.
With U.S. tariffs set to take effect on April 2, the market is facing increased short-term uncertainty. On Friday, the bears encountered no resistance and drove the market down rapidly. The market is currently highly focused on tariff-related news, and without positive developments, prices may continue to decline. Once the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is resolved, it will be important to monitor market sentiment and further developments.
For next week's trading, patience is key—waiting for more updates on tariffs and the potential market bottom. If positive news emerges after April 2, a V-shaped rebound remains possible.
From a technical perspective, since the market failed to break out effectively this week, the current market structure has broken below the long-term uptrend line that has been in place since 2023 on the weekly chart! Therefore, technically speaking, there is still significant downside potential. However, after several consecutive weeks of decline, prices are in an oversold state, making shorting at these levels relatively risky.
For short positions, it may be preferable to wait for a rebound to the 19,974–20,257 range before considering shorting opportunities based on further news developments. If the bears remain in control, prices should stay below 20,361. Otherwise, a breakout above 20,715, 21,098, and 21,370 could occur.
For long positions, it may be best to wait until the tariff-related news is fully priced in before making further observations. It would be prudent to confirm signals on the 4-hour chart before considering any long positions.
Realtime markups: Indices tailspin to the weekly range lowsAfter rejecting the weekly highs aggressively on Wednesday, we had a clear run toward the low of the same weekly range candle's low. I believe this low will be hit before anything else.
We will see what the Monday open sequence looks like. See you then 🫡
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Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 30m timeframe (19700) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 20350 (or) Escape Before the Target
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"NAS100/US100" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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US Equities Fall Amid Inflationary Pressures and Trade TensionsUS equities closed the week with significant losses, reversing the gains recorded during the previous week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped more than 1%, reflecting a clear deterioration in market sentiment amid multiple adverse factors.
The bearish session unfolded in an environment dominated by worrying signs of inflationary pressures, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key gauge followed by the Federal Reserve (FED). The core PCE posted a monthly increase of 0.4%, the largest gain since January 2024, exceeding market expectations. On an annual basis, this measure accelerated to a concerning 2.8%, signaling persistent inflationary pressure that could complicate future monetary policy decisions by the FED.
At the same time, soft data has continued to deteriorate significantly, adding uncertainty regarding the resilience of hard data. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 57, its lowest level since November 2022, due to negative expectations regarding personal finances, unemployment, and inflation. In fact, two-thirds of consumers anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate, reflecting a level of concern not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.
Much of this uncertainty has been fueled by recent policies implemented by the Trump administration, particularly government spending cuts and aggressive trade policies. The latest move came with the announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, effective April 3. This measure triggered an immediate negative reaction in both local and international markets, anticipating higher costs for US consumers and potential trade retaliation from key partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea.
At the sector level, discretionary consumer goods were the most affected on Friday, while utilities showed relative resilience. This uneven performance supports the case for a defensive market, reflecting a growing risk aversion among investors.
The combination of inflationary pressures, economic slowdown, and rising trade tensions creates a challenging environment for equities. Overall, current conditions point toward a concerning scenario with signs of stagflation: low economic growth coupled with persistent inflation and a rapidly deteriorating economic sentiment.
In conclusion, it will be key to closely monitor the evolution of hard economic data as well as the international response to US trade policies. The big question in the coming months is whether the current fragility in economic sentiment will ultimately translate into hard economic indicators, decisively impacting equities.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Short Day TradeTook a Short position at the daily EMA9
Entry: 18440
SL: 18690
TP 17950
Went short because today China reacted with a tariff increase on Trump action and Tesla does not take orders in China anymore. Was thinking about shorting Tesla but I decided to stick to the index.
Entry Level was choosen because I expected the price to touch the daily ema9 again (when I woke up it was way below it). The TP is just the intraday low which I expect to be hit again. The SL is a little high, thought about taking the premarket high but considered that this might be the SL for many shorts and it might hit at market open to erase some shorts from the market.
So the Risk Reward Ratio is bad for this trade. If I weren't so bearish for the market I probably would not have taken the trade
In my opinion the upstick of the market was just market manupulation by Trump (who should be impeached over this) and the uncertainty will bring the market much lower
I trade on the 4h chart, the 1h is just to see the progress.
I will close the trade before the market closes, no matter where it is.
NSDQ100 China to Hike Tariffs on All US Goods – Market MixedChina to Hike Tariffs on All US Goods – Market Reaction Mixed
China announced it will raise tariffs on all US imports from 84% to 125%, effective April 12. The move follows Washington’s decision to increase levies on Chinese goods to 145% earlier this year.
However, Beijing signaled it will no longer respond to future US tariff increases, calling the back-and-forth “a joke,” suggesting a shift in tone from retaliation to dismissal.
Market Reaction:
USD: The dollar weakened further following the announcement, reflecting rising trade tensions and risk-off sentiment.
Equities: US futures turned lower as traders priced in the potential economic drag from escalating tariffs.
Gold: Continued to rise, reinforcing its role as a preferred safe-haven amid geopolitical uncertainty.
US Treasuries: Traditionally seen as a safe-haven, Treasuries underperformed, suggesting investor confidence in them may be weakening under mounting fiscal and trade concerns.
Analysis:
Markets are increasingly pricing in the fallout from an intensifying US-China trade standoff. The rise in gold and the dip in Treasuries suggest a shift in investor preference toward alternative safe-haven assets. If trade tensions continue to escalate, further downside in risk assets and USD strength reversal are possible.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 19000
Resistance Level 2: 19552
Resistance Level 3: 19873
Support Level 1: 17254
Support Level 2: 16773
Support Level 3: 16400
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