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NI225 trade ideas

Update Nikkei 225: Still short but changed upper trendlineThis is an update from my previous idea. There are a couple of concepts in Technical analysis that I want to share, but let's look at what's changed and what's not changed: Not Changed: 1. Still a short call. 2. The short position (SL and TP) What's changed: 1. Changed upper trendline from horizontal to slightly upward slanting. 2. Changed end point of wave 5 (could be changed again) There is one concept that I want to gel together between traditional TA and EW. Here goes: 1. In traditional TA, if we assume that we have an ascending triangle, the strength of a breakout (upwards) weakens as price nears the apex of the triangle. In fact, a breakdown becomes more likely and will be fiercer if the ascending triangle fails. 2. In EW, as we have seen here, if this is an ending diagonal, the next move will be a sharp down move. The above 2 points, if we merge them together, became a failed ascending triangle and confirmed an "ending diagonal". Given that both results in sharp decline, we have a convergence of idea for the next move: a sharp downwards move in price.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by yuchaosng
1
The Power of Trap Plays: Understanding Liquidity Warnings█ INTRODUCTION In the world of trading and investing, understanding market dynamics is crucial for success. One of the key concepts that often go unnoticed, yet plays a significant role in shaping market behavior, is the "trap play." Trap plays are strategic moves by large market participants designed to exploit or manipulate liquidity, creating opportunities for informed traders while serving as warnings for those who are less vigilant. In this article, we explore why trap plays are good liquidity warnings and how they can be used to navigate the complexities of the financial markets. █ WHAT ARE TRAP PLAYS? Trap plays are deceptive market maneuvers where large players, often institutions or experienced traders, create a false sense of market direction to entice retail traders or smaller players into making decisions that ultimately lead to losses. These plays can manifest in various forms, such as false breakouts, sudden reversals, or unexpected price spikes, all aimed at manipulating the supply and demand dynamics of a particular asset. For example, a false breakout occurs when the price of an asset appears to break through a significant support or resistance level, leading traders to believe that a strong trend is about to emerge. However, once these traders enter positions based on this perceived breakout, the price reverses, trapping them in losing positions. █ TRADING TRAP PLAYS While trap plays are often viewed negatively, they can be valuable tools for astute traders who recognize them as liquidity warnings. By understanding the mechanics of trap plays, traders can: ◆ Avoid Being Trapped: By staying vigilant and not rushing into trades based on apparent breakouts or breakdowns, traders can avoid falling victim to traps set by larger players. This caution is particularly important during periods of low liquidity or heightened market volatility. ◆ Identify Reversal Opportunities: Savvy traders can use trap plays to their advantage by recognizing when a false breakout or other trap play is likely to reverse. This insight allows them to position themselves on the right side of the trade, capitalizing on the missteps of others. ◆ Gauge Market Sentiment: Trap plays can also provide insights into market sentiment and the intentions of large players. By observing how these plays unfold, traders can gain a better understanding of the underlying liquidity conditions and adjust their strategies accordingly. █ CONCLUSION Trap plays are more than just deceptive tactics used by large market participants; they are also important liquidity warnings that can provide valuable insights into the state of the market. By recognizing and understanding these plays, traders can protect themselves from potential losses and even use these situations to their advantage. In the fast-paced and often unpredictable world of trading, staying aware of liquidity conditions and the potential for trap plays is essential for long-term success.
JEducation
by CGE_Trading
JPN225 Nice RecoveryLooking for a potential squeeze to the upside across US and Japanese Indices Markets. Perceive the market in ranges of price with psychological hurdles at every quarter and whole number. Once you see the market in a transactional manner the movements become a lot more obvious. Then your focal will become identifying mid to low term TF Entries around these psychological levels. Feel free to drop your comments below! :) As always happy trading safe trading. TKT- Adamj_trades
PEPPERSTONE:JPN225Long
by iNtuNeFXMarkets
NIKKETHThe Nikkei/USD Futures appear to be in a downtrend over the recent period, with a sharp decline visible towards the end of the chart. This could suggest a short-term bearish outlook. However, markets often experience rebounds after sharp drops. Trading idea: Look for a potential short-term bounce: The steep decline might lead to an oversold condition, presenting an opportunity for a quick long trade. Entry point: Wait for signs of price stabilization or a small upward movement to confirm the bounce. Set a tight stop-loss: Place it just below the recent low to limit potential losses if the downtrend continues. Take profit target: Aim for a modest gain, perhaps around the midpoint of the recent sharp decline. Risk management: Keep position size small due to the current high volatility. Watch for correlations: Monitor the relationship between the Nikkei and the cryptocurrency asset (orange line) for potential predictive signals or divergences. Be aware of upcoming economic events or news that could impact Japanese markets or USD strength.
TVC:NI225
by blaggers
2
Nikkei - Yen Carry Trade - Real or Cheap Politics ???2nd Week of August felt like we are in midst of Peak Autumn Season - Wherever we turn - Every Tree is turned Fully Red. The Entire World market was brought down to its Knees, given the "EXCUSE" of Japan's Yen Carry Trade assets.bwbx.io Yen carry trade is estimated to be around $20 trillion, according to Deutsche Bank, which is 505% of Japan’s GDP. Other estimates, based on foreign lending data, suggest it is about $1 trillion, while Japanese investors’ net international investment has grown to $3.4 trillion. All these stories are fine - but it was presented to the world by the Cheap Media houses. Multiple news were mixed up (Yen Carry Trade + US Recession + Iran War Escalation). It was being reported that the entire world economy will dive into Recession, Indian Economy would face a Major Correction with some "Brilliant Minds" predicted that Nifty would crash to 11,000 in next 2 years ? Really ??? Even common-sense says these are Non-Sense Here is a Detailed R&D with Step-by-Step explanations unveiling the Evil intentions of Big Players, Media Houses who wanted to take quick advantage of the News to bring the prices down in a Flash Comparison of Nikkei's Weekly Chart vs Daily Chart 1. Nikkei had a clean Cup and Handle Breakout around 33,820 levels in Jan 2024 following which the price blasted nearly 22% in 2 months 2. The Price then faced Multi-year Parallel Channel Resistance on Mar 18th week and started falling and bounced again taking support of Fib 0.5 only - Typically when Fib levels are NOT combined along with previous Support and Resistance - they are susceptible to be broken down again if there is a News based fall 3. By Jul 8, Nikkei tested the price levels of Mar 18 and fell - initiating a Double Top pattern with neckline set at 36,670 and the price was falling Non-stop from July 8 already.... 4. Now comes the News from BOJ on Wednesday Jul 31 that the rates are increased by 0.25%. As I always say, ANY NEWS has the Power to Break one or more Supports (or) Resistances. In this case, the Negative publicity by Big Media caused a -5% fall on Aug 1st (Thu) resulting in Breakdown of Double Top Neckline Key Point to remember is that the Fall was Pre-destined in Mar 18 and then on July 8 technically. The Negative News "JUST" Added "Fuel-to-the-Fire" setting ablaze the entire world market in a flash If there was NO News - still the Breakdown could have happened and if it happened, then the price would slowly come down to the Cup and Handle Breakout zone of 33,820. But the Overhype given my Media + US Recession (another Fictitious Horror Story) + Iran War escalation fears caused the price to Breakdown the 33,820 support level As per Double Top pattern, the price would reach the same place from where it Started the "M" pattern and voila - it came exactly to the same level of 30,404 on Aug 5th reaching a Intra-day low of -12.65%. Despite breaking 3 Support levels on Monday, the price took the next Support and bounced back "Same Day" above 2 of the Supports Remember - Neither BOJ Governor nor Japanese PM/FM did anything to Stop / Reverse the price action on Monday. The calming news from BOJ Deputy Governor that there will be NO further rate hikes came out on Wednesday. But by that time, the price regained above all 3 supports which was broken (reaching above the Cup and Handle BO ZONE) For those who don't believe Technicals didn't save the game - tell me your Story. What caused the reversal from 30,400 zone ? Entire world is driven by Technicals and NEWS can ONLY cause a temporary direction change By Monday - Japanese economy had already touched -30% down in 30 days since Jul 8. Its impossible for a country's economy to crash so fast and still fall below. it would be a Catastrophe and even the Big Players who wanted quick gains know this, but they just wanted to Play a "Cheap Game" capitalizing on the Panic sentiments of Innocent Retailers Understand the True working of Market - Stay Confident - Build your Wealth. Disclaimer: 3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading... We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side" *** Important *** Consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by Stocks-n-Trends
Nikkei 225 (JP225) buy tradeHere’s a bullish technical analysis for the Nikkei 225 (JP225) on the 4-hour (H4) chart: Trend Analysis: The Nikkei 225 is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. The price is moving within a rising trend channel, indicating increasing optimism among investors1. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: The key support level is around 30,423, which aligns with the recent low2. Resistance: The first resistance level to watch is at 34,359.50, which is the recent high2. Chart Patterns: The index has formed a bullish flag pattern, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend. This pattern is typically a sign of consolidation before a breakout1. Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is moving upwards, indicating increasing buying pressure. Moving Averages (MA): The price is above the 50-period MA, which is a bullish signal. MACD: The MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum. Volume: Increasing trading volume on upward moves supports the bullish outlook, indicating strong buying interest. Summary: If the price holds above the support level at 30,423 and breaks through the resistance at 34,359.50, we could see a continuation of the bullish trend. Traders might look for long opportunities with potential targets around 36,000 and higher.
FOREXCOM:JP225Long
by Mansa_Musa_Capital
Is the Japanese Stock Market Stable Today?Is the Japanese Stock Market Stable Today? On July 11, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) started to decline. Notably, on July 15, we observed bearish activity around the 41330 level. Interestingly, US stock indices also began to fall on July 11. However, the Japanese stock market saw a more dramatic drop, exceeding 25% by the August 5 low. Has the Japanese stock market continued to fall? No. After a alarming Monday on August 5, the price has been recovering. It closed higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, with bullish signs observed today, Thursday. Analyzing the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart on Monday, we noted that: → The price dropped to a support block between 30,400 and the psychological level of 30k. → A strong bounce from this block could indicate activated demand (a sign of an emotional selling climax in Wyckoff's terminology). We then suggested that this support block would hold, and the Japanese stock market might enter a consolidation phase to establish a new balance of supply and demand. Today, the technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart shows: → The price has risen from the support block around 30,400 and is currently near 35,000. → Notably, the price found support at the lower boundary of the linear regression channel, indicating deviations from average values (shown in light purple). The lower boundary acted as support. → The price is below 38,000, where previous supports, including the lower boundary of a significant ascending channel (shown with blue lines), were breached. These are now expected to act as resistance. Thus, after an extremely volatile Monday, the market may continue to develop a consolidation phase with decreasing amplitude, within the range of 30k to 38k. This phase will help establish a clearer consensus on the fair valuation of the Japanese stock market, considering the Bank of Japan's rate hike last week and the risks of a US recession. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:J225
by FXOpen
3
Nikkei Hits Bear Market after BoJ HikeAfter a cautious approach away from its ultra-easy monetary setting, the Bank of Japan bolstered its normalization efforts last week. Policymakers raised rates to around 0.25% after the March watershed exit from sub-zero levels, pointed to more moves ahead and also announced sizable reduction in bond purchases. This action signaled tightening resolve and also accelerated the Yen rebound, threatening to unravel the two key pillars of the stock markets’ rally to record highs. Along with broader recession fears after the US jobs report, JPN225 slumps into a bear market as it loses more than 20% for July’s all-time high and could be in for further losses. On the other hand, the BoJ is still in accommodative territory and warned that could increase its bond buying if needed, while the broader market rout could push it back into a more conservative approach. Furthermore the rate differential is still huge and the carry trade may persist. From a technical standpoint the RSI points to the most oversold conditions in years and that could help JPN225 rebound out of bear territory and towards a cluster of hurdles that starts with the 200Days EMA, but significant sentiment improvement needed. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
Where is the support level for the Nikkei 225?www.tradingview.com The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the policy interest rate, the unsecured overnight call rate, from 0-0.1% to 0.25% at its monetary policy meeting on July 31st. This is the first rate hike since the BOJ abandoned its negative interest rate policy in March. This rate hike is not considered a departure from the accommodative monetary policy stance, given the real interest rate, which remains deeply negative. The BOJ indicated its intention to continue raising the policy rate and adjusting the degree of monetary easing if the economic and price outlook materializes. The foreign exchange market reacted to this decision with a sell-off of the US dollar and buying of the Japanese yen, leading to a huge appreciation of the yen. This caused the Nikkei 225 to drop sharply for two consecutive trading days, exceeding 2,000 points. Fibonacci analysis was used to derive support zones for the Nikkei 225 to predict its future movements. * Low 24,681.74 - High 42,426.77: 0.618 → 35,048.41 * Low 30,487.67 - High 42,426.77: 0.382 → 35,648.17 These support zones have already been breached, and the next support point is 33,554.25. * Low 24,681.74 - High 42,426.77: 0.5 → 33,554.25 The focus this week will be on whether this support level holds.
TVC:NI225
by tf_method
Japan 225 Double Top in the Making Price has made a First Peak with a retest of the BOS line at 33150. A Neckline can be identified at 32130 , on lower volume. Price is rising , and yet volume is decreasing. It is this Divergence of Price and Volume that sets up the short side. Wait for a break of the BOS line ( Bull Trap) Two places to consider a short 1. A candlestick confirmation after the false break on low volume. ie Pinbar, Bearish Engulfing. 2. Break and Retest of the neckline with similar candlesticks, but this time on High Volume. The weekly VWAP will act as resistance .
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by Umlingo
The Nikkei 225 Index Has Plummeted to a Nine-Month LowThe Nikkei 225 Index Has Plummeted to a Nine-Month Low As shown by the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart: → In less than a month, the index price has dropped by more than 25%, providing grounds to suggest the start of a bear market; → The price has approached the psychological level of 30,000 points – the last time the price was this low was in autumn 2023. Bearish sentiment is being driven by a combination of the following factors: → Negative news from the US labour market, published on Friday – this has significantly increased discussions about the likelihood of a recession; → The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike last Wednesday to support the excessively weak yen. As we wrote on 15 July, while analysing the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen): → Signs of bearish activity were observed around the 41,330 level; → The upward channel may break in the second half of the year. It turned out that the bullish channel was broken much earlier and in an extremely aggressive manner – the bulls attempted to resume the trend from its lower boundary (shown by the black arrow), taking advantage of the 38,000 support, but were defeated. What could happen next? Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart shows: → The price broke through (shown by the orange arrow) the previous resistance at 34,000, which is around 50% of the upward move from A to B; → The RSI index has moved into deep oversold territory; → The price has fallen into the region of the block formed by the 30,400 support and the psychological level of 30,000 – note the strong rebound from it, indicating the activation of demand (these are signs of an emotional selling climax in Wyckoff method terminology). Given the abnormal surge in volatility, it is reasonable to assume that the market may enter a consolidation phase to establish a new balance of supply and demand, taking into account the latest news releases. It is possible that the mentioned support block will hold, and the 34,000 level will influence the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) price in forming the upper boundary of the anticipated consolidation range. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:J225
by FXOpen
2
#NIKKEI 225 - Is a world economic crisis coming?#NI225 #NIKKEI 225 Japan Stock Exchange First of all, let me start by stating that the graph is based on 3-Month data I have detailed all the necessary notes on the chart. The white trend line is the balance zone. Below and above it caused completely different reasons as can be seen. With the beginning of 2024, the mismatch on the RSI side signaled that it would fall. Therefore, a serious profit was realized. Perhaps the first steps of a major crisis may have been taken as Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 1997 and the Japanese Yen was recalled to the country.
TVC:NI225Short
by ugurtash
Nikkei 225 Suffers Worst Decline Since 1987 Amid U.S. Economic CThe Nikkei 225 index in Japan plunged by 12.4%, marking its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. The index closed at 31,458.42, shedding 4,451.28 points. The sell-off was triggered by concerns about the U.S. economy and followed a 5.8% drop on Friday. Major companies like Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group saw significant declines. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and a stronger yen have further pressured the market. Investors now focus on upcoming trade data from China and Taiwan, and central bank decisions from Australia and India.
INDEX:NKYShort
by signalmastermind
Long Japan 255 at 30677.3 using SMC conceptTrade Idea: Long Japan 255 at 30677.3 Entry: 30677.3 Stop Loss (SL): 27869.0 Take Profit (TP): 41133.8 Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Zone: 28625.0 Terminology Explained Demand Zone: A price area where buying interest is expected to be strong, potentially causing the price to rise. In this trade, the demand zone at 30677.3 suggests an opportunity to enter a long position. Smart Money Concept (SMC): A trading strategy that identifies the movements of institutional investors ("smart money") to make informed trading decisions. This concept is used to recognize the demand zone for the entry point. Stop Loss (SL): A predetermined price level at which a trade will be closed to prevent further losses. For this trade, the SL is set at 27869.0. Take Profit (TP): A predetermined price level at which a trade will be closed to secure profits. The TP for this trade is set at 41133.8. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Zone: A strategy of buying an asset at multiple price points, rather than a single entry, to average out the cost basis. The DCA zone for this trade is set until 28625.0, meaning additional buying could occur if the price drops to this level. Please like Follow and Share to your friends.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by smarttrader012
2