wave 2 of 5 blow off is ending now will post in more detail later today But I have just added to net long 15 % more
NYA trade ideas
THREE PEAKS AND A DOOMED HOUSE STILL MORE UPSIDEIT IS SIMPLE MARKET TOPS ON GOOD NEWS AND BOTTOMS ON BAD FYI IN APRIL I WAS VERY CLEAR TOP 4/26 TO MAY 10 FOCUS MAY 2 AND TARGET 2953 TO 3011 PEAK MAY 1 2954 .I ALSO WAS VERY CLEAR WE WOULD DROP TO A .382 PULL BACK WE ARE NOW HERE I AM NET LONG 150 % AND NOW LONG CALLS AT 35 % AS WELL TOP IS GOING TO BE AT OR ABOVE 3011 AND WE ARE IN POINT 22 IN MY 1987 MODEL
WAVE A OF 2 OR WAVE 2 DOWN IS NOW ENDINGWE ARE NOW ENDING WAVE A OF 2 OR WAVE 2 WAVE 3 TO THE UPSIDE IS JUST AHEAD DO NOT BE SHORT AS MY 4 SPIRALS TOP PHASE APR 26 TO MAY 12 FOCUS MAY 2 AND THE PANIC CYCLES HAVE NOW REACHED THE CYCLE LOW UPSIDE FOR WAVE B WOULD BE 3010 ABOVE 3010 WOULD TARGET 3081 TO 3155 I AM 120% NET LONG
NYSE in a bear market for past 16 monthsThe NYSE is the biggest and most liquid equity market in the world. It has been highly volatile since the start of 2018 and has been making lower highs and lower lows since Jan 2018. Yet there is still talk on the ongoing equity bull market in the US. From all time high in Jan 2018 to the brief low in December 2018 the drop was over 20%, meaning we are technically in a bear market.
www.multpl.com (not for the NYSE index but a reasonable proxy) shows that the S&P 500 currently sits at 31.05 average PE ratio as at May the 3rd. A valuation of 31 times earnings is very high and has historically proved to be unsustainable. The earnings are diluted too much and dividend returns of 2-4% become common (unless the Company juices the dividend returns with borrowed money or increases share buy-backs), which is okay when the equity price is rising... but when it is volatile or dropping the calculus changes. Investors realise that the risk adjusted returns are too low and will seek lower but safer returns, or higher returns elsewhere (possibly in growing emerging markets). This situation will result in profit-taking (as is happening). On the way down, I expect average PE ratios to blow through a fair 15:1 level and go below (the bottom of my blue box is where (if earnings remain stable) PE ratios will equal roughly 15:1. Waves (1) through (5) appear to form the 5th wave of a much larger multi-decade move (not charted due to space).
Hopefully, I have charted a plausible scenario. If you use the Elliot Wave principle in practice you would look for:
- wave (2) to retrace not below the start of wave (1) which is the case,
- wave (2) to retrace more than wave (4); wave (2) retraced 50% while wave (4) retraced more than 38% but less than 50% (its just a guideline - but a useful guideline),
- wave (3) to generally be the longest wave (often the longest nut never the shortest) and to normally exceed a 1:1 extension of wave (1) - which is the case,
- wave (4) should not enter into the wave (1) territory (some exceptions exist) - which is the case,
- and wave (5) to normally end around the 1.618 extension of wave (1) which is ALMOST EXACTLY the case.
- This will precede an ABC correction that retraces a significant portion of the previous move (which seems to be unfolding).
- The past 9 years of the NYSE is a textbook example of an impulse wave - the only thing missing would be for wave (3) to be a bit steeper / faster moving price move. Sometimes it is hard to arrive at a wave count, but not in this case. Sometimes waves extend, but seemingly not in this case.
Fundamental justifications for my bearish view include corporate debt loads, volatility, risk adjusted return, downward revision in global growth prospects, money managers reducing exposure to equities, and my views on the manipulation of interest rates and currency supply by the fed among other factors.
I have already added significantly to my margin via successful short trades last week and will be looking to re-enter short once a lower high has formed. The hard part will be holding on.
Just one last comment (if this wasn't already long enough); I don't revel in my bearish view. If I (and a lot of other people) am right this will mean employment and investment losses and everything negative that is associated with that. All I am trying to do is to protect myself and my family.
Thanks for viewing and protect those funds.
NYSE almost collapse soon !!!NYSE is almost time that go all time high and collapsing soon
i think the pattern probably look something similar to this
it probably finish in 4th up because most likely it is delay
if you like my analysis and signal please help to like and follow
Thank you very much
Part Time Sentimental indikator,Extrapolating that the copoc curve does turn uo and that the market is still feeling positve but not yet estatic... we could be heading for the blow off ,,, the market will start looking toppy in November...
NYA THE KID with a RULER STOPS THE NYSE . So far the nyse has NOT reached the over head target of 13,010 plus or minus 20 but it has just about reached the LONG TERM down trend line I am net short in the sp 500 at 2891.9 and will be adding very soon .
$spy $nya warning signsNot the technical setup I would like to see if I were buying at these levels. RSI divergence. may go a little higher and repair that gap to the left, but I'd be selling it quick like
THE ONLY BULLISH COUNT NOT MUCH TO SAY WE PEAKED INTO MY TIMING HIGH TO LOW TO HIGH WE REACHED THE ALT TARGET I WILL POST THE BEAR COUNT AS WELL
FINAL WAVE UP FOR WAVE 1 OR X TARGET FOR THE NYSE 13,000 +-20 WELL CYCLES AS WELL AS MY WAVE STRUCTURE HAVE BEEN FOR THE MOST SPOT ON WE WILL PEAK ODDS FAVOR THIS COUNT INTO MY SPIRAL AND FIB CYCLE PEAK WAS DUE 3/12 BUT IT SHOULD BE AT PEAK INTO FRIDAY NEAR 13000
$spy $nyaThis fib retracement and gap is a very logical place for a pullback to test. 12300 level RSI turning down from extreme OB
I would not buy until this level is reached.
NYSE COMP INDEX - dailyRange 12,682 - 12,047
resistance test at top of range 12,682
macro trend uncertain
VOL ATR - LONG since JAN 29
PA top of BB indicating strength
RSI MACD indicate possible momentum change
support at 12,047
short term flat/neutral
WAVE 1 OF THE BLOWOFF TIMING IS EVERYTHING Back in late aug I had a fib and spiral turn sept 2 which based on a fractal gave me two downside target s 1 st 2334 2nd was 2278 the low was 2346.58 cash but in the NYSE AND THE DOW it was an near perfect .618 AT THE LOW AS WELL AS IN THE BANK SECTOR . So were to we go from here ? . iF we stop here into my fib projection was 2762 plus or minus 1 the only real alt target for wave 1 was 2788 from here we should see a strong drop into 2604 plus or minus 5 and form a right shoulder bottom . And then the upside in wave 3 sometime from march low the peak should be MID JULY . From that top is my guess the next bear market into 2022 . over the last year I have made it very clear I saw the jan 27 peak as the bull market . In 1920 s bull the sept 29 top was that of a blowoff I see the same here . BEST OF TRADES !! WAVETIMER
BULL CASE NYSE THE WEAK LEAK IS KEY ALWAYS The NYSE could be counted as ending the correction from jan peak now based on the drop jan 27 to feb low x 1.618 from the b wave top oct 3 within 30 point I am now moving to a 75 % long as of this morning pull back and will move to a 100 % on any new low under 12/26 I SEE THIS DROP AS WE SAW IN 1998 PANIC DROP NOW . BEST OF TRADES IF RIGHT WE SHOULD SEE 3059 TO 3150 INTO SUMMER OF 2019
Examination of the NYA and SPXThe NYSE Composite (NYA) has been much weaker than the three main US stock indices.
Today 12/26/26 was the last day of the Full moon widow for a bullish turn.
12/26/18 was also the 58 trading day of the decline since the DJIA 10/3/18 top, matching the 58 trading day decline of the SPX correction in 1998.
The 1998 SPX correction was down 22.4% so far the 2018 SPX correction at the low today was down 20.2%
Today the NYA went just 10 points below a .618 retrace of the bull move from February 2016 to January 2018.
Toady daily Stochastics had bullish cross over.
I will have another post on 12/27/18 examining a fascinating SPX retracement.
I remain bullish and believe the decline from the all-time high is just a correction within the bull market that began in 2018.
If the SPX did not bottom today it could reach 2280 in a few trading days.
Mark
Long NYA 15M TF on breakout of trend indicatorTop - trend indicator with TL over its peaks. Recently violated (right)
Below- NYA price
NYA is a measure of market breadth and/or broad sentiment.
