NYA trade ideas
Has Capitulation Already Occured ..?Margin Debt Liquidation, according to the website WolfStreet.com
hit 40 Billion Dollars in the Month of October 2018,
the highest monthly sale of debt since the Lehman Crisis,in November 2008.
If you were asking yourself, WHY DID, the market go down so far,
so fast,look at the massive amount of forced selling.
feeding on each other, as prices continued to drop, thus forcing
more selling, and so on.
So if if that selling has already occurred, and out of the way,
and the market is in the process of making higher lows,
as it tries to recover, and rally back,
the question that needs to be answered is..
because the light bulb just turned on..
Has Capitulation Already Occurred...?
I don't know for certain the answer to that question,
but certainly margin debt selling is compelling new evidence,
that the capitulation that many have been waiting for,
... might have already have occurred.
Very important subject matter, that requires for a revisit soon.
THE_UNWIND
11/27/18
NEW YORK
TOP WAVE STRUCTURE UPDATED FOR NYSE TARGET 11370 TO 10850 IT NOW APPEARS THAT ODDS ARE WE HAVE JUST STARTED WAVE C FROM 12682 WAVE B TOP WHICH WAS .61B RALLY WAS THE PEAK FOR WAVE B OR 2 WHICH WOULD MEAN A CYCLE LOW DUE NEAR 12/4 TO 12/11 FROM OCT 3 PEAK BEST OF TRADES
NEXT BULL PHASE IN NYA THE PULLBACK WAS A VERY CLEAR ABC DOWN AND THE PULL BACK HIT A .382 LOOK FOR AT LEAST A YEAR END RALLY
Here a good proxy for the marketI am back and back with a nice chart of the New York Average that sports a textbook ZigZag down implying a couple of things. First we should see a rally from current level with any more weakness, if needed, should be limited. Then a 3 waves down is a counter trend move meaning the long term trend is up. Though we might have to be patient. Maybe this Zig Zag is part of a larger correction that might last many more months. We just don't know.
So let's focus on the short term. I labeled the count as being not over yet but it might be. Regardless a rally is in the cards and we will keep you eye on it. Anymore weakness should be limited at 11650 where we have equality between waves.
Bottom line the bulk of the damage has been done and a good rally is in the card. Short term and long term
Keep in mind, every storm eventually runs out of rain !
A case for a i.t bottom targets in NYSE 11830 TO 11660 THE MARKET TOPPED WORLDWIDE ON JAN 27 2018 . AND THE SPIRAL POINTED TO A PANIC INTO FEB 4 TO 10 FOCUS ON FEB 9 ON TARGET AND CYCLES POINTED TO A UPTREND TO START ON 4/2 BASED ON THE 10.8 TO 11.3 WEEK CYCLE. AND I POSTED THE SPIRAL OF 8/31 TO 9/12 WAS DUE AND A PANIC INTO THE WEEK INTO OCT 10 TO 20 . THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS THAT THE PEAK OF JAN 27 WAS THE PEAK AND THE FEB 9 LOW WAS WAVE THE RALLY INTO 9/3 WAS WAVE AND THAT WAVE DOWN IS ABOUT OVER BASED ON NYSE WAVE C SHOULD BOTTOM AT 11861 TO 11633 WERE THE WAVE A = C AND .382 FROM LOW OF 2016 AS FOR IDEAL TIMING THE CORRECTION FROM MAY 2015 TO JAN 2016 35 TO 38 WEEKS IS NOW TO NOV 10 SPIRAL HE WORST IS OVER IF THE BULL IS INTACT AND IF IT IS THIS DECLINE IS MATCHING TWO DATES BULL CASE OCT 1998 PANIC OR LATE 1999 BOTH WOULD BE A BLOWOFF WAVE TO FOLLOW . BEAR CASE IS A MATHING TOP SEE 2000 AND 2007 PEAK ALL HAD A FIRST PEAK AND 7.5 MONTHS LATER THE DECLINE FOR A NEW BEAR STARTED BOTH COUNT
NYSE will crash to 11800I see that the US market start to collapse
so I think that it will move toward 11800 area
this previous crash the first time I think that it is impossible to recover to uptrend
So I'm bearish in this NYSE composite
strongest rally of the yearelliot analysis on NYA
13550 expected to be hit before the end of september
Chopping our way higherThe NYA seems to work its way higher in a nice impulse wave that does not seem to be over. At least two more down-up sequences before we get somekind of top. Actually current advance could even subdivide even more driving the bears totally insane. Markets are patterned but labels come after....
Nevertheless, long term we are not in a topping mode as the McClellan summation index is not diverging yet and most tops do come with a divergence in that index. I think only one major decline unfolded without a divergence. If I recall correctly that was in the late 70's.
So long term bull but short term we are getting toppy. Just look at the number of stocks above their 150MA. We have been making lower highs since earlier this year and even that high was lower than last year high.
Elliott Wave Tutorial - Discovering the True Wave CountIn my last post I noted the SPX could be forming an Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle.
There are five sub types of Horizontal Triangles, the type I thought was forming is referred to
as a Running Triangle. In this pattern the wave "B" exceeds the point of origin of wave "A"
***See Figure 1-43 on page 50 of Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter.
The most common Fibonacci relationship of wave "B" to "A" is 1.236.
In the supposed Horizontal Triangle wave "B" was 1.28 the size of wave "A".
This supposed Horizontal Triangle count was eliminated today when the SPX broke below 2459.90.
It appears that from the August 8th SPX top I may have been temporarily off track.
Sometimes when a market is moving fast it maybe be difficult to discover the true wave count.
The SPX pattern from 2459.90 to 2490.90 looked as if there needed to be one more rally to a new high
after a pullback from 2490.90.
Today 8/10/17 the SPX and other US stock indices continued to decline.
The size and depth of the SPX decline since 8/8/17 now shifts the probabilities back to my
original forecast of a developing significant top. It now appears that top could be in place.
When confused there are two ways to determine the true wave count.
1) study smaller time increments. On the SPX 2459.90 - 2490.90 pattern- going down to the one minute chart level revealed the true pattern.
2) study a related index in this case the NYSE Composite (NYA)
The posted NYA chart illustrates what is most likely the correct wave count, a Horizontal Triangle followed by
a post triangle trust up to new highs. I unfortunately didn't analyze the NYA until today.
The decline from the 8/8/17 top appears to be either a developing Impulse wave down or a completed Impulse wave.
Wait for at least a multi-hour rally for short entries.
There could be a lot more downside to come maybe as much as 15% from the 8/8/17 top.
Mark
NYA is a broad market index that gives a feel over all marketImportant to not NYA crossed the momentum line today on the daily. This mere cross shuts down bullish bets from a whole group of momentum traders. Something to keep top of the watch list.
NYSE Composite: Weekly Review April 28, 2017
Technical and Sentiment:
- NYSE continue to make higher highs and higher lows
- Market pattern suggests another buyer's swing up is forthcoming.
- ABCs are yet to be fulfilled in their completion.
- Middle of a Bull Cycle
- All time Highs week of February 20, 2017
Conclusion:
There is a higher Probability that any pullback will be seen as a bargain and bought by institutional investors.
Plan: Rocketman will keep buying companies with strong fundamentals and holding them as long as feasible.
NYSE ~ Yearly Downtrend Reversal Yearly downtrend reversal, Bear Market disruption!
Swing high breakout with potential all time high on tap.
