US200 - long term SHORT with short term LONG reversalsLooking at the Weekly on the US200.
The probability is that this market is a bear market. With this in mind we are looking for areas of possible reversals.
If we look at the retracements of the last swing higher (March 2020 - November 2021) we see the market had a reversal at the 382 abnd the 50%. Both reversals reaching the top of our range boxes.
From here we look for a reversal at the next level of 618 (15500 area). If the market falls to the 618 it will also mean a double bottom (with Nov 2020) and a 1.272 ext of the current swing that is projected to reach the 618. See 3rd yellow circle.
At this point we can judge the price action for a possible revesal from the 1530 price area up to 1700 area.
Looking further afield the another possible reversal will be at the 707 which is also confluent with the 1.618 extension and 0.5 retracement of the big swing higher (Marck 2009 - November 2021).
So back to today, can we short down to the 1550 area?
On the Daily we see the Market broke below the resistance at 1903. The Short was at the re-test of this 9blue circle). It re-tested two days in a row. So we had two chances here.
Should themarket give us a third opportunity we can then short. Otherwise we wait for anotehr possible ressitance zone at 1800 area.
Keep a eye out.....
