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SA40 trade ideas

The JSE Top40 Medium-Term ViewThe JSE Top40 is at a point of a relief rally though the bigger picture is that of a yearly decline. So the expectation is that we can rally while expecting price to be capped by the black trendline, we either make it there or we turn down before reaching this point. Longer term I expect price to trend towards the green support line. Since we must breach this line, My interest will be on the grey horizontal line for support. A t the back of my mind is the COVID drop scenario, this is where we get extreme moves downwards representing a continuation of current cycle, otherwise without that scenario we would have a tough quarter one and two of 2025. We have been in recession like conditions and so far, we could be going through a silent recession whereby conditions point that way but the economic measures do not confirm, does not help that US being leader in market sentiment has had war excursions to affect the indicators as well as constant revisions of the unemployment figures. The coming of Trump might cause war spend to decrease unraveling the dire state of the economy. It is best for traders to be aware of such a scenario and effect on the markets.
JSE:J200
by runyamhere
The JSE Top40 Paints a Grim Few Weeks AheadThe JSE Top40 powered above 2 key resistance lines but it quickly reversed course, we call this a false breakout (FBO), such failures usually move violently to the lower side. On the weekly perspective, the share is in week 31 so we are likely going lower than the lower pink support. After the pink support fails, we turn can see the green arrow was lower than the black, from historical cycle perspective, the JSE Top40 will set the shortest yearly cycle if current price does not go lower than the green arrow. This is something I place at a smaller probability, hold on for a bumpy ride. Relief will come at the weekly low which will create gains sufficient for long positions.
JSE:J200Short
by runyamhere
SA40 Bullish Outlook Good morning, The J200 looks bullish on the H1 chart, but it is within a consolidation area, so some caution regarding momentum behaviour is needed. The price has two significant resistance levels: 77302 and one within a resistance zone at 78148.95. There is also an ABC pattern that does not align well with my Elliott Wave count, suggesting that there might be an even lower C. This means that the support level is in question due to the break of the trend line; there is an argument around that. If a bearish candle breaks the support line, the current C level of 75488.39 would need to be broken to invalidate the setup. Overall, there are bullish interests here, targeting highs of 79533.16. Happy Trading, K. Not trading advice.
JSE:J200Long
by Khiwe
Why we always widen our stop loss when DAY TRADINGVery important and basic rule with Day Trading. Always increase the stop loss when going short (sell) above the original stop loss. Always decrease the stop loss when going long (buying) below the original set stop loss. Reason: When the index touches the ASK or BID price (regardless of it actually trading there), it will get you out of your trade and hit your stop loss. So, don’t be afraid to increase the distance between the entry and stop loss. As long as the Risk to Reward stays above 1:1.5 – It’s fine. How much do I increase the distance between the entry and the stop loss? Notice what the spread is on the contract when you place your stop loss. So wherever you wanted to put your stop loss originally, add the spread on top of that and that is where you would place your NEW stop loss. Maybe 20 – 30 points is safe. But other times it could be up to 50 points
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
JSE Top 40 LONG analysis still in check to 85,633Look I don't care whether the market rallies or falls. We trade either way and follow the trend. But on bigger time frames, it states and shows us what is rather than what the media and Jim Cramer says. And right now, the long analysis still applies for a few reasons. 1. W Formation, broke out and now going to test support 1 (Safety line 1) 2. Price<20 but still above 200MA which states the market is in a bull market. 3. If the price breaks below the safety line 1 it could go to 68,000 before it turns up again. So all in all the analysis still has a weird up target to 85,633 on the daily chart. And the market is still up 2.40% for the year - So it's not all bad babies.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
When to PAUSE Trading – NOT Stop – 4 TimesThere is a time where you might need to PAUSE with your trading. It will save you from a potential portfolio crash. And it happens either when – The market environment isn’t playing nice with your system. And there are moments when you need to step back from your trading. But even when you halt trading, it doesn’t mean you can just take a vacation and chill. No! The key is to track your performance each day, until the conditions improve. This will make sure, you’re poised to leap back in when the time is right. Let’s dive into the signs that it might be time to hit the pause button. Big Drawdowns Over 20% Picture this: Your portfolio is sliding, and suddenly, you’re staring at a 20% drawdown. It’s VERY rare – and I haven’t seen such downside since I started trading. But this applies to new traders who try to do too many things at once. Anyways, 20% is Ouch. If this ever happens, it’s a signal to halt trading and reassess. Then you’ll need to analyze and see what is going wrong. See if there is a flaw in your system. See if the market is the right one to trade your system with. Is it a market anomaly or is it psychological where you keep making silly mistakes. Remember, it’s about surviving to trade another day. Feeling Very Emotional with Trading Losses Trading is a game of numbers, not emotions. Now losses do sting. But that’s only when the risk is too high or you’re psychologically unable to handle them. The trick is to manage emotions and take countless trades (wins and losses), to lower the effect of the losses. But, if you find yourself riding an emotional rollercoaster with every loss, it’s time to halt. Trading with a cloudy mind, over emotions and fear is a recipe for disaster. Emotions can lead you to take impulsive and revenge trades. And this will lead to EVEN bigger losses. So, take a breather. Step away from the screens and give yourself time to cool off. Recenter your focus until you feel you have a clear, rational mindset for trading. A trader who controls their emotions controls their destiny. No Confirmed Strategy Trading without a plan is like navigating a minefield blind. If you’re unsure about your strategy or it’s not delivering consistent results, halt. Spend time to refine and optimise your approach. Backtest, analyze, and validate your strategy until you’re confident it can withstand the market’s ups and downs. Only then should you resume trading LIVE. A solid strategy is your roadmap to success. Do Not Trust Trading Trust is the cornerstone of trading. If you find yourself doubting the entire process, it’s a red flag. Maybe it’s because of repeated losses, unreliable signals, or just plain bad luck. Whatever the reason, if you don’t trust your trading, halt. You will manifest a very negative outlook on what trading can help generate you during your career. Remember trading is all about probabilities, risk and reward. Use this time to rebuild your confidence. Educate yourself, seek mentorship, and engage with the trading community. Trust isn’t rebuilt overnight, but with patience and perseverance, you’ll get there. Once you regain your trust, you’ll trade with renewed vigor and clarity. FINAL WORDS: The Power of the Pause Hitting the pause button isn’t a sign of weakness. It’s a powerful strategic move to know when something is NOT working. When you HALT trading you recognize when you need to protect your capital, preserve your mental health, and prepare for a stronger comeback. Always track your performance and be ready to adapt. Remember, the market isn’t going anywhere, and neither should you—just be smarter about your approach. Let’s sum up the times when you should HALT trading. Big Drawdowns Over 20%: Pause to reassess and prevent deeper losses. Feeling Very Emotional with Trading Losses: Step back to cool off and regain a clear mindset. No Confirmed Strategy: Refine and validate your approach before resuming. Do Not Trust Trading: Rebuild your confidence and trust in the process.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
2
DON’T Look at a screen all day! - Here's whyStop Watching Your Trades All Day Have you ever found yourself glued to your screens, watching every tick of the market, and feeling the stress levels rise? If so, you’re not alone. You might find it productive and what is essential but it’s actually a more dangerous habit than you might think. Watching every tick will rise your cortisol (stress) levels. It might cause you to take impusive trades. And you might adjust your trading levels when you shouldn’t. And so in this piece of writing I’m going to show you why you should stop watching the screens all day. The Cortisol Rush Every time you check the market and see a fluctuation in your trades, your body responds by releasing cortisol, the stress hormone. While cortisol is useful in fight-or-flight situations, in trading, it can lead to quick and unnecessary decisions. And you’ll end up taking more lower probability trades than you should. It’s time you lead a more balanced, stress free and calmer trading life. Distraction from Higher Priorities Trading should be a part of your life, not the entirety of it. You shouldn’t obsess over every market movement. Your job is to wait for high probability trades to line up, take them and then let the market take over. Also, you the trick is to focus on other vital aspects of your life like: family, health, and even your full-time job if you have one. Balance is key to sustain success in both your personal and professional life. Now there are a number of benefits when NOT looking at a screen all day. Benefit #1: Beter Decision-Making When you’re not constantly reacting to market volatility, you have more time to analyze your strategies and make more informed decisions. This way you can priortise in what is absolutely needed to act on when you do trade. Benefit #2: Improved Quality of Life Life is NOT just about trading. So once you’ve taken a trade and reduced your screen time, you will be able to free up time for other activities that enhance your well-being. I’m talking about things like exercise, hobbies, and time with loved ones. A well-rounded life supports better mental health, which in turn can improve your trading performance. Benefit #3: Increased Productivity Believe it or not, spending less time watching your trades can actually make you more productive. You will also have the right amount of energy and focus to set specific times to check the market and stick to a trading plan. Time management is everything. This disciplined approach can lead to better outcomes than erratic, all-day monitoring. So how do you use your time for when you trade? ACTION #1: Use Alerts Wisely: Analyse and set up your trading alerts for specific price levels, when your strategy lines up or wait for my trading ideas where I do all the work for you. Let technology or a mentor help you t so you don’t have to watch the markets to do the monitoring for you. ACTION #2: Create a Balanced Schedule: You should also take the time to Incorporate other important activities into your daily schedule. This could include exercise, reading, or spending time on a hobby. It’s all about creating a healthy work-life balance. ACTION #3: Check and review your Trading Plan Regularly: When you review and check your trading track record and journal, this will tell you whether you’re on the right path to growing your portfolio. You need to base this time on looking at the stats, metrics, seeing the mistakes you made. And where you are with your trading in total. This only requires you to do this once a week or so. And it will reduce the time you think you need to constantly check the markets. FINAL WORDS: As I always like to say sometimes less is more. Drop the screen time and focus on what is important. Lower your stress and keep to a well-balanced trading life. This way you’ll be able to integrate trading in a more effective and profitable way. Trade well, build wealth.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
Why it PAYS to be a PATIENT trader - 5 ReasonsPatience isn’t just a virtue. Patience is your portfolio’s best friend. Now you might think that patience is just sitting on your hands and doing nothing. It’s not! It’s about taking the time to prepare, analyse and wait for when the moment arrives. And that’s why you have to keep your eyes peeled and ready to take on the big bad market. So here are 5 reasons why it pays to be a patient trade. 🚦 #1: Stops You From Making Impulsive Decisions Ever caught yourself hitting the ‘buy’ button for the sake of taking a trade? You’re not alone. Impulse is the enemy of reason, and in trading, it’s the fast track to a thinner wallet. Remember, the market will always be there tomorrow, but the same can’t be said for your capital. Impulsive decisions normally yields LOW probability trades. And that’s a reason in itself to STOP doing it. Why take the risk? 🔍 #2: Helps You Spot High Probability Trades The markets speak to those who listen. Patience gives you the superpower to cut through the noise and hone in on high-probability trades. It’s like having a financial crystal probability ball. Instead of predictive qualities, you’re armed with analysis, trends, and a likelihood of how a trade is more likely to play out. Remember, more trades from all types of markets don’t mean more wins. Often, they just mean more fees, more stress and more losses. 🤲 #3: Hold Onto Winners Got a winner in play? Cool… Patience says, “Hold it, let’s ride this wave a bit longer.” It’s the difference between a quick sprint and a marathon. Sure, locking in profits feels good and it looks promising on the portfolio. But in the medium to long run, it’s a traders kryptonite to defeat. Trading patience whispers in your ear, “There’s more to come,” and more often than not, it’s right. 🧠 #4: Takes Away Fixation Obsession is a trader’s Achilles heel. Patience frees you from the chains of market fixation. This will allow you to take a step back, focus on other things and not get hung up on every markets ticks. Stop fixating on your trades once you’re in. You have the strategy in play, you have risk and reward levels setup. Let them be and follow your strategy (regardless of whether it’s a winner or a loser). 🐆 #5: Wait for the Prey In the wild, the most successful predators are those that can wait, watch, and pounce at the perfect moment. A leopard will wait for hours in the tall grass. But when the probability is high and the leopard has done its instinctual calculations – it will pounce and WIN. You’re not chasing every gazelle; you’re waiting for the right one, the one that’s worth the energy. It’s about being proactive, not reactive. You set your terms, your entry, and exit points, and then you wait. The market will move; it always does. And when it moves into your crosshairs, that’s when you strike. So let’s sum up the reasons it pays to be a patient trader. 🚦 #1: Stops You From Making Impulsive Decisions 🔍 #2: Helps You Spot High Probability Trades 🤲 #3: Hold Onto Winners 🧠 #4: Takes Away Fixation 🐆 #5: Wait for the Prey
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
EGO NO GO Traders’ Downfall: Six Actions to AvoidThere is NO place for ego and bravado with trading. If it falls under your personality, you have been warned. Do you know why? Because ego and emotion are traders’ kryptonite. In this piece, we’ll dive into the egotistical trader’s playbook and shine a light on six actions that could be crippling your trading game. EGO NO GO #1: Overtrade: More is Not Always More Overtrading is like trying to sprint a marathon; it’s unsustainable and a fast track to burnout. You need to pace yourself or you’re going to get a spasm or a stitch. As a trader, you’re not a machine-gun trader, firing rounds at every shadow. You need to only look and wait for the highest probability trades. Remember, it’s about the right trades, not just more trades. Solution: Quality Over Quantity as I always tell my MATI Traders! EGO NO GO #2: Revenge Trade: The Emotional Spiral After a loss, I know it feels tempting to jump straight back into the markets in order to recover your funds. But let’s face it… Revenge trading is about as effective as using a leaky bucket to bail water out of a sinking ship. Solution: Keep Cool and Carry On Clear your head. Take a walk, grab a beer – The market will always be there for you the next day. And it will probably dish out even better trades. Remember, the market doesn’t know you, and it certainly doesn’t owe you. Stick to your plan, not your pride. EGO NO GO #3: Ignore Risk Management: The Silent Killer If you ignore risk management, it’s like skydiving without checking your parachute. What if you jumped and instead of a parachute you’re wearing a backback? Don’t laugh, these things happen. With trading you need your risk management measures: Stop loss of less than 2% Drawdown management when the portfolio goes down. Risking money you can emotionally handle to lose. Making sure of your trade size. Checking your risk to rewards. Ensuring you’ve protected your positions. Solution: Plan Your Risk Decide on your risk parameters before you enter a trade, and then—this is key—stick to them. Your future self will thank you. EGO NO GO #4: Dismiss Market Analysis: Gut Feelings vs. Hard Data You also need to check the weather. By weather I mean, look at the news events coming out for the day and week. Is it NFP (Non Farm Payrolls)? – The day when you DON’T day trade. Is it CPI (Consumer Price Index)? – The day you DON’T Trade Is it FOMC where the federal committee talks and causes volatility? Solution: Check the news events and be vigilant. EGO NO GO #5: Blame Everything: The Pointless Game When trades go south. They look to blame. They point fingers to their mentors, their strategy, themselves. There is NO blame game with the markets. If you followed your rules, strategies, risk to reward and everything else – You did the best of your ability for that trade. Solution: Own your trade to Hone your trade It Accept responsibility, learn from your mistakes, and grow stronger. It’s the only way. EGO NO GO #6: Fail to Adapt: Evolve or Be Left Behind The market is a beast that’s always changing. I always say adapt or die. Feel the general market’s environment. Know whether it’s in a favourable or unfavourable period. Tweak your system to improve your metrics. Change the markets by adding or removing ones that aren’t working. Take ego out of the analysis. Solution: Stay Sharp, Stay Updated FINAL WORDS: I’m sure you already feel less egotistical when it comes to trading. And that means, this article has done it’s job. Whenever you feel ego creeping in, remember this article save it and store it. In fact go through all the articles that resonate, print them and store them in a file. It will be your guide to trading well! Let’s sum up the ego tendencies and how to avoid them… Avoid Overtrading: Less can be more. No Revenge Trading: Act with strategy, not emotion. Stick to Risk Management: It’s your safety net. Conduct Market Analysis: Never trade uninformed. Stop the Blame: Learn and move forward. Adapt to the Market: Evolve your strategy to stay relevant.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
JSE Top 40 setting itself for great upside to 84,346Cup and Handle has formed since September 2023. We are waiting for an imminent breakout. With the new cabinet in play, stronger rand and weaker US Dollar with Granpa Biden bringing the US down. We are in for a potential rally with the JSE. Question is, will the AMerican markets lead the JSE too? When the US dollar weakens, we generally see a rally in their markets - which is great. High Probability analysis as the Price>20 Price>200 Extended uptrend has shown demand and buying being stronger. Target 84,346 LONG opportunities coming our way.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
6 INEVITABLE Stock Market DownturnsIn the world of stock trading, and crypto trading, volatility is as much a part of the landscape. Whether you’re a day trader or a long-term investor you’re bound to undergo different degrees of stock market downturns, drops and crashes. And each level of downturn has its own set of characteristics, challenges, and strategies for recovery. Let’s dive into the nuances of market downturns, so you can navigate these stormy waters with confidence and savvy. DOWNTURN #1: Down -2%: A Ripple of Volatility Think of a -2% drop in the stock market as your morning coffee spilling over a bit—it’s unpleasant but hardly the end of the world. This level of decline is typically seen as a blip of volatility, a common occurrence in the stock markets that often corrects itself in the short term. DOWNTURN #2: Down -5%: The Pullback Perspective When the market drops by 5%, it’s is often referred to as a pullback and, while it might cause a bit of concern. However, if you look at the bigger time frame, you’ll see it might not signify a long-term trend. DOWNTURN #3: Down -10%: Entering Correction Territory A 10% drop is a clear signal that the market is in a correction phase. This is where the uptrend will come to a temporary halt and the market will drop and correct itself. You’ll see moving averages will cross down and the medium term trend will be showing downside. You’ll also most likely look for shorts (sells) and take advantage of the correction. DOWNTURN #4: Down -20%: The Bear Market Looms Now we’re in the territory of the bear market. This is generally characterized by a 20% or more drop. It might be time to look into more defensive stocks or sectors, such as utilities or consumer staples, which tend to be less affected by economic downturns. DOWNTURN #5: Down -50%: The Market Crash Crisis A 50% plunge is the equivalent of a financial earthquake, causing widespread panic and uncertainty. It’s quite rare, but when it happens, it’s all hands on deck. We saw this in the financial crisis. We saw this during the tech bubble. We saw this with the oil crisis. Silver Linings: Even in the darkest times, opportunities can be found. And whenever we’ve had a crash with world markets, they have turned up, made a come-back and moved to all time highs. DOWNTURN #6: Prolonged downside: The Depression This one I don’t have a number for you. Unlike recessions, which are typically shorter and less severe, depressions are rare and can last for several years, causing long-term damage to a country’s economic health. The most famous example is the Great Depression of the 1930s, which started with the stock market crash in 1929 and lasted for about a decade in most countries. During this period, unemployment rates soared, reaching as high as 25% in the United States, while industrial production, prices, and incomes plummeted. Conclusion: Steady as She Goes As I like to say. It’s important to know that the downtrends, downturns and downside will come. We need to be clued up and prepare for these situations. That way we’ll take advantage as traders of what to do. With the right approach, you can not only survive these downturns but emerge stronger and thrive profitably on the other side.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
HOW to SPARK New Trading IdeasToday I want you to use your imagination. I want you to ignite new, profitable and powerful trading ideas. Let’s embark on a journey to ignite your trading creativity, transforming the mundane into the extraordinary. Speak to Traders – The Power of Conversation Nothing beats the raw, unfiltered insights you can gain from chatting with fellow traders. It’s like opening a portal to a universe brimming with unique strategies and perspectives. Whether it’s a casual coffee meet-up or a spirited discussion on trading forums, the exchange of ideas can light up that creative spark within you. As you know I’ll be doing a lot more videos and live events, you’ll have the opportunity to share your ideas, analyses and ask questions! Remember, every trader has a story, a battle scar, or a victory dance. These are not just tales; they are potential blueprints for your next big trade. Let Your Mind Wander – The Art of Creative Thinking In the hustle of tick charts, Bitcoin rallies, and economic news, your best trading idea could be waiting in the quiet. It’s time to get your creative juices flowing. Take a walk, meditate, have more showers or simply gaze out the window. It’s in these moments of apparent idleness that your brain connects the dots, craft strategies that you wouldn’t have thought of while staring at screens. Give yourself permission to dream, and watch as those dreams morph into actionable trading ideas. Explore Online – The Digital Goldmine The internet is a goldmine for traders seeking inspiration. With endless resources at your fingertips, from real-time market analysis to historical data, the possibilities are limitless. Take the opportunity to dive into financial news websites, scrutinize market trends on social platforms, or get lost in the vast ocean of trading blogs. Each click can unravel patterns and opportunities. And it will help propel you towards your next trading venture. Remember, the digital world is your trading oyster, and every piece of information is a potential pearl of wisdom. Trading Podcasts – Voices That Inspire In today’s fast-paced world, trading podcasts are the lighthouses guiding traders through the fog of information overload. They provide not just market insights but also foster a sense of community. Whether you’re on your daily commute or taking a break, tune into a trading podcast. Let the voices of experienced traders be the wind beneath your wings, propelling you towards new horizons. Write Down Ideas – The Might of the Pen An idea, until it’s written down, is like a spark that risks being extinguished by the slightest breeze. The simple act of writing can turn this spark into a flame. Keep a journal of your trading thoughts, no matter how fleeting or outlandish they may seem. Over time, this journal becomes a repository of your trading evolution, a place where ideas can be nurtured and refined. This practice not only sharpens your trading acumen but also serves as a beacon during times of doubt. FINAL WORDS: Remember, every great trader was once a beginner, armed with nothing but a passion for the markets and a willingness to learn. So, let your ideas flow, for in the world of trading, today’s whimsy could be tomorrow’s windfall. Let’s some up ways for you to ignite and spark new profitable and powerful trading ideas. Speak to Traders – The Power of Conversation Let Your Mind Wander – The Art of Creative Thinking Explore Online – The Digital Goldmine Trading Podcasts – Voices That Inspire Write Down Ideas – The Might of the Pen
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso