South Africa.
A Sound of Thunder.
Should affect commodities.
Commodity index, the commodity boom is heading towards its logical end.
EWI believes that this is an impulse, however, it can take the form of a multiple zigzag.
At the moment it is at the levels corresponding to the end of the plane in X of the multiple zigzag.
SA40 trade ideas
JSE Top 40: DataOver a 7-year period, there have been 14 weeks (including last week) where the index returned more than 4.5%.
The average return in the subsequent week is -0.07%.
Largest decline was -3.06%.
Largest gain was +4.34%
6 of the subsequent weeks saw a positive return, while 7 saw a negative return.
More downside for the JSE ALSI40 - INV C and H - 15 JUly 2022The breakout hasn't been a strong one to the downside, but it's still below the current support (which has become a resistance).
If a catalyst breaks out to send the markets further down, we could see 50,000 on the cards...
What do you think?
Trade well, live free.
Timon Rossolimos
Founder, MATI Trader
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe/Mid-Session Asia - 13 July * Poor reaction to US inflation data but markets managing to stabilize with some buying into the US close to pare the losses.
* USD retracing slightly which also relieved pressure on equities
* Volatility higher on the day. Small caps shedding the most.
*JSE: Markets continuing to retreat from swing highs seen last Friday although there was some buying off yesterday's lows.
*NPN/PRX continue to being sold from their overbought positions as Tencent trends lows. As a result, some SA Inc plays managing to hold up on a relative basis.
* Gold attempting to recover off the lows as DXY was sold following the inflation print. DXY higher again this morning.
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe/Mid-Session Asia - 12 July Published on the client platform earlier this morning
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe Mid Session Asia
Following a much weaker open, S. African equities managed to narrow some of it's losses at the beginning of the week but not by enough to completely shed the negative sentiment which has been cast over global risk assets at the beginning of the week. What's weighing? Inflation concerns + central bank interest rate path + global growth + geopolitical relations (see Russia, Germany energy issues) + global social unrest (see Sri Lanka & China) + Chinese Covid-19 cases. Later today, U.S earnings season commences with large cap banks being the first to update the market on their Q2 performance. US equities closing lower overnight with the aforementioned issues weighing. Musk/Twitter deal also weighing on sentiment while investors position for the earnings where the focus will be on the forward guidance. This morning, Asia is negative. US Futures negative. USDZAR +17.13
JSE Top 40In my 07 March report I highlighted the technical risk with the index having traded at the upper boundary (2.5 to 3x the mean) of it’s 200-month linear regression channel. We have since seen the index retrace toward it’s mean with the price lower by 16.6% from the March peak. The 7-month RSI prints 38 which is considered weak but not yet oversold. While we may see rebounds on a short term basis, the regime remains ‘weak’. Considering the quarterly time frame, it remains in a strong but near overbought regime.
Top40- Cheap gets cheaperThe Top40 is precariously clutching to support, but as I see it, a breach of 59000 opens the door for another 4000 points downside. This chart just looks sick right now. I'd be selling here until I'm convinced otherwise. People who pick bottoms only end up with smelly fingers...