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SOX trade ideas

SOX UpdateI have no problem with bold predictions, reversals I do well. SOX has historically led out of the gates on reversals. SOX has broken the downtrend, and successfully tested a Gartley retrace. While we still have an Ichy cloud resistance overhhead, I believe the market bottom is in. Will there be another selloff? Likely. However, I believe a new market bottom lower than the October low in SPY is unlikely. We also have financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) showing a similar trend reversal. So lets pull for more green shoots.
NASDAQ:SOXLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
Have Chipmakers Already Bottomed?Most people know that technology stocks ended 2022 on a weak note. But they may not realize one group started to outperform: chipmakers. The first pattern on today’s chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is the falling trendline along the highs of last year. The S&P 500 is currently sitting at similar resistance, but SOX has been above its respective trendline since mid-November. Notice how it stayed on the upper side of the pattern last month. That may suggest old resistance has become new support. Next, that bounce occurred at 2449, an old monthly high from October 2020. Again: old resistance, new support? Finally, chipmakers have shown relative strength as inflation cools and the Chinese economy reopens from its most recent lockdowns. It’s also interesting that yesterday its biggest member, Taiwan Semiconductor , jumped after reducing capex plans. Management also predicted the chip market will bottom in the first half of this year. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:SOX
by TradeStation
2
What’s happening in semiconductors? The next chapterWe recently wrote about semiconductors from the perspective of capital spending and government policies aimed towards encouraging further capital spending and ultimately semiconductor independence. However, we’d be remiss to not at least touch on some of the current geopolitics. A simplified look at the semiconductor supply chain If one simplifies a rather complex set of interrelationships across countries, we can see a triangle with three distinct corners1. Foundries: These companies are manufacturing the physical chips. There are not too many individual players, as the capital expenditures to enter this space are extremely high. Additionally, they don’t all have the same capabilities. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is well known for being able to reliably manufacture the most advanced chips in the world. Samsung Electronics, Intel and Global Foundries represent other important players. Intellectual Property Companies: These companies make and sell different layouts and designs. ARM, the company currently owned by SoftBank, is one example with a huge presence across the internet of things (IoT). Electronic Design Automation (EDA) Tools: EDA was only $10 billion in 2021, a small part of the overall $595 billion semiconductor market, but it is essential if chip manufacturers are to determine if a design is feasible prior to production. Cadence, Synopsys and Mentor Graphics are the three leading players in this space. Together, they control about 70% of the global market. Behind each of these points on the triangle is a lot of history embedded as experience, and it is important to recognise this since it is what makes it particularly challenging for an outside player—in this case China—to just copy it. The ASML example Lithography is the term used for the practice of etching the appropriate designs on the silicon that allow for the functional operation of the transistors. More transistors spaced more closely together, simply put, means a more efficient and capable chip. Today’s Apple M1 chip contains 16 billion transistors2. The degree of precision engineering required to be able to put 16 billion transistors on something that is not the size of multiple city blocks, much less could fit within a laptop or smartphone, is one of the most impressive feats of human ingenuity that the world has ever seen. The short version of the story is that a company in the Netherlands, ASML, was in a position to take a big risk in the 2000’s—the pursuit of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). EUV was needed because there needed to be shorter wavelengths of light used to almost shave atom by atom away from the silicon to make the transistors small enough, basically 5-nanometres. This light is generated by flashing a specific type of laser 50,000 times per second at molten tin3. Developing EUV was so capital intensive that only a single company did it: ASML. Components for the machines that do this fill four 747 airplanes and are sourced from specific companies all over the world. Operating the machines at scale requires an incredible depth of experience4. Given the flavour of the topic, you have probably already guessed the geopolitical implications. Some of the components of the EUV machines do come from the United States. Then, there is the relationship between the US government and the government of the Netherlands. As a result of those discussions and where we are presently, EUV machines are not being sent to China. The Nvidia case In August 2022, the US took a further step to limit China’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions through further restrictions on the export of very specific semiconductors5: Nvidia will be restricted from selling the A100 graphics processing unit into China, Hong Kong and Russia Nvidia will also be restricted from selling its forthcoming H100 series of graphics chips into these same markets users of the A100 include Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu—the companies that provide some of China’s largest cloud computing infrastructure Nvidia is the most visible company with respect to these types of chips, and as of this writing it had the largest market cap amongst the semiconductor companies. It would not surprise us if other firms that have chips of similar types of capabilities could be named in the future. Conclusion: Can China ‘go it alone’? We might take a step back at this point and think, wait, China has massive resources. Why don’t they just make their own chips? We don’t discount the fact that China absolutely could make its own chips, but it would be more a question of how long it would take and how advanced those chips could be. The EUV process was something that took both massive investment and about 20 years. ASML is able to manufacture the machines that it does and support companies like TSMC operating at scale because they have the benefit of learning from all the mistakes along the way. China can certainly make efforts along the path, but simply spending money is not going to lead to an effective EUV process that can manufacture the most cutting-edge chips at scale—the key being ‘at scale without a high defect rate.’ During the four years ended 2024, China is slated to complete 31 major semiconductor factors. By 2025, 40% of the world’s capacity to produce chips with 28-nanometre nodes is expected to be in China6. This tells us that China is making big investments away from the absolute cutting edge—and we have to remember that the world does need those chips as well. It will be very difficult for any country to fully take in all aspects of the semiconductor supply chain, but we are seeing notable efforts to that end in 2022 that will likely continue. Sources 1 Source: Yang, Zeyi. “Inside the software that will become the next battle front in US-China chip war.” MIT Technology Review. 18 August 2022 2 Source: Wikipedia Apple 3 Source: Thompson, Clive. “Inside the Most Complicated Machine on the Planet.” MIT Technology Review. Volume 124, Number 6, November/December 2021 4 Source: Thompson, November/December 2021 5 Source: Lin, Liza & Dan Strumpf. “Latest U.S. Chip Curbs Deliver Setback to China’s AI Ambitions.” Wall Street Journal. 1 September 2022 6 Source: Strumpf, Dan & Liza Lin. “China Bets Big on Basic Chips in Self-Sufficiency Push.” Wall Street Journal. 24 July 2022
NASDAQ:SOX
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Head and ShouldersPrice has broken the neckline and this level has been tested and passed the test as a level of resistance since the break to the downside. This tells me it may be a valid neckline as sometimes a neckline is hard to pinpoint. Not a super clear downtrend, yet. There are levels of support under price and I did not draw them all. I also see a divergence, bearish, between price and RSI between the 1st shoulder and the head of this pattern. Large orange type are possible targets 1. Targets 2 are smaller and are possible targets if targets 1 are passed. No recommendation. Any pattern, trendline, or any level of support/resistance can fail.
NASDAQ:SOXShort
by lauralea
Are Semiconductors Stalling?The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ripped about 29 percent between early July and early August, but now it may be showing signs of fatigue. The first pattern on this chart is last Thursday’s peak of 3087 -- slightly below the early June high of 3159. That lower high is potentially noteworthy when compared with the broader Nasdaq-100, which pushed above the respective level on its chart to the highest since early May. It could be sign of relative weakness for chips. Next is Monday’s doji candlestick, a potential reversal pattern. Also notice how SOX appears to have broken a rising trendline. Third, the Relative Strength Index has retreated from near an overbought condition. Finally, you have an increasingly mediocre news flow . Nvidia’s warning yesterday, combined with similar news from Intel and Western Digital , may reflect less-than-stellar fundamentals in chip stocks. Given the market’s healthy bounce and falling volatility, SOX may not retest the 2022 lows. But it may have lost its mojo and chop around for a while as investors seek outperformance in other corners of the market. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:SOX
by TradeStation
Recession is just starting and the Sox bubble comes to an endWell recession started since Q1 and yes, Q2 will be ugly too Considering lowering of bitcoin. Considering lowering of Nvidia+AMD stocks earnings Considering lowering of TSMC, ASML earnings + end on market multiple Then Sox have to sink deeply to 550. The lowest value in 2009 is 168 so it's still 3 times higher than the lowest point and rich will remain rich. But latest buyer will suffer Thanks for checking my other insight and have nice trade
TVC:SOXShort
by Luncyan
$SOX will continue to trend lower toward a target of 2975SOX continues to set lower lows. Two scenarios, one (green zig zag) is a reversal into cloud resistance to 3544. This would be a 78% extension from low point C. The other scenario (red zig zag) would be a 1.78% extension from point B. The RSI is in a solid downtrend, and the point & figure chart on the daily has a target of 3001. If I were waging bets, I would go with the 2975 target. The trend is your friend, until it ain't.
TVC:SOXShort
by UnknownUnicorn13101
SOX PHLX Semiconductor Shortage won`t be solved anytime soon !!Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo: “The semiconductor situation is going to take a long time to fix” “This is one I feel confident saying it's not going to be fixed in a month or two, or six, or 12 months.” For now PHLX Semiconductor (^SOX) is oversold and we can see in the chart what was the price movement after the last oversold area. I expect to be the same now, since the semiconductor shortage won`t be solved anytime soon. My price target is 3730. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:SOXLong
by TopgOptions
5 WAVES UP ENDED LOOK FOR A CRASH We have ended into a Month in history with the highest level of major market tops outside of late aug 17 to sept 10 thru out the markets history . at THIS POINT and the wave structure as well as fib relationships within the the wave structure . I can now say we are setup for a CRASH cycle I think it has started and will see it over the next few days . the weekly rsi has not confirmed this rally as well as the nysi and nymo models put/call/ are not at any bottom or value nor is the naz dsi or fear greed index . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
TVC:SOXShort
by wavetimer
SOX, this market barometerAs I keep saying, the SOX is truly considered as the market barometer. And today, pre-US market open we have a clear engulfing candle that is also breaking the the Kijun Sen. Do we also have a double top? Of course, the candle still needs to close but nevertheless, it worth pointing it out for today's session. Trade Safe, Trade Smart! Glossary : TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe ** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTME NT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
NASDAQ:SOX
by FoxTrading-Official
SOX The SOX is often considered as a strong leading indicator, so monitoring its evolution is always a good thing to do. For the moment, the SOX is slowly but steadily retracing, the first level of support on the DLY chart is the TS at around 3846. Breaking that level may push the price to the KS. If the KS break, than we will have a clear short/medium term bearish signal. Glossary : TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe ** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTME NT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
TVC:SOX
by FoxTrading-Official
Warnings Signs in the Chips?Semiconductors have been a key pillar of the S&P 500’s advance since 2016, and now they may be flashing a warning signal for the overall market. This chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index shows how gains have been slowing all year. Prices have squeezed into an increasingly narrow range, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently dipping within about 1 percent of the 100-day SMA. Also notice the action as SOX tried to climb above 3300. After some initial closes at new highs, the candlesticks turned solid as early rallies got sold. Next, looking at the weekly chart, MACD has steadily waned since February (bearish divergence). There was also a bearish outside week July 12-16, which SOX has yet to return above: Finally, the chart below shows the ratio of SOX vs the SPDR Technology ETF (XLK). Notice how it’s been slipping since April – despite what should be a lot of good news involving strong demand for chips. This may suggest that, should another summer pullback occur, SOX may be especially vulnerable. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TVC:SOX
by TradeStation