SOX - long- any correction in sight ? slightest slip and the SPX will take it the other way...
Markets are beautiful.
SOX trade ideas
Semiconductors - almost to the 5th wave down. LOAD UP on SOXSSemis swinging nicely in this range bound pitchfork. Volatility increase near the outer bounds, and we are almost there. Clear 5 wave count to conclude at the long term bullish trend line. This is my short term trade to the downside using SOXS 3x bear, and will reevaluate my next move when this target is hit. There's still a long term bull target on most indexes (including Semis) that has not been hit. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind, but for now staying bearish on this move. Ignore the time based fib if you want. I rarely use it, but it helps fit my narrative for now.
SOX - - undecided- semis look better than housing (HGX) - and it seems that we still have a chance for tech sector to grow
- Weekly RSI did not violated the 30 level
Semis are starting to do better PHLX / SoX indexnot a clear sign on long term yet... short term things may go well for certain semis.
SOX long termAlthough I rarely trade the semis anymore, I always watch them as leading indicators for the rest of the market. Currently holding LRCX puts. A lot of bullish sediment this last week however the bulls are still yet to undo a lot of the technical damage done by the bears this year. On the chart I have highlighted some key areas to watch. Remember this is a monthly chart so trade accordingly.
A bullish take on SemiconductorsHere's a ratio chart of semiconductors versus the SP500 which suggests that we could still expect some decent upside from semiconductors and technology in general despite it's out performance over the last few years. It's too early for me with this one but I will be looking out for any decent moves upwards.
Consolidation time, SOXLooks like a big drop coming. Uptrend broken and looks like we are in a diamond reversal pattern. Targeting the previous lows at least, and expecting sideways chop after that.
CORRELATIONS - Nasdaq and PHLX Semiconductor IndexWatch the correlation between Nasdaq Index and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR INDEX_Daily_Possible SELL below 1340Update: possible sell momentum below 1340.
If WS will openwith a gap down, i will wait the recover and will seek the best prices near 1340
PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX_SOXX_Daily chart_Head and shouldersPossible bearish head and shoulders with direct consequences on USA equities first and world global indexes in general
SOX: not the best looking H&S dailySOX break down doesn't bode well for the markets. The day isn't over so will need to see how it closes over the next 1-2 days.
Nvidia and semi-conductor bubble. NVDA, SOXIt is quite obvious central bank money printing and suppressed interest rates caused this bubble. This pattern is playing out two decades later all over again.
Good chance SOX and everything in it. ie NVDA are going down -30-50% minimum a year or so from now.
PHLX SOX Index: Long term reversalWith heavyweight Intel getting hammered today, the outlook of the broader semiconductor index obviously gets dragged along. The already unconvincing outlook of the past months has taken a turn for the worst by breaking below cloud support at 1299. The minor internal trend line at 1272 is now scrutinized but a move lower seems a mere formality.
Focus is on the reasonable support zone at 1211 at first. Below that a new primary down trend takes hold towards 1122 (daily projection) and probably a lot lower on a 6+ month horizon. After all, the current breakout means the start of a multi-month corrective phase with very substantial down side risks.
Avoid any longs in the sector. New short-entries are justifiable as long as prices hold below ~1345 over the next weeks.
Near term trend: negative
Long term trend: neutral
Outlook: long-term reversal expected
Strategy: avoid/exit-long or trading short-entry
Support: 1272 / 1211 / 1122*
Resistance: 1345 / 1360+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1345
Semiconductors hit a weekly double at the 2000 crash level.Semiconductors hit a weekly double top at the same level as the 2000 dotcom crash. I went long SOXS (3x semiconductor bear) and long SDOW (DJI 3x bear) in my 401k right before the market closed yesterday. I got lucky as a bought these right before the Cohn resignation announcement which tanked the futures market. I had also gone short 2 DJI futures. I already closed that trade last night for a solid profit after the big Cohn drop. SSG is a low volume 2x semiconductor bear etf which I would avoid due to low liquidity. I wish there was a 1x bear etf to avoid the daily rebalancing problem. My SDOW and SOXS remain open in my 401k.
Silicone DynamiteThis is a simple idea. Semiconductors hit $1362 In March of 2000. Now 18 years later they are banging on this ceiling. I think when the break through they will explode to the upside.
