Straight Times Index Floating +3% (HOLD) for Asian Session Still over -23% off of the highs, I will remain holding this position with stoploss at breakeven. This entry was given on the 14th of last month.
03:44:41 (UTC)
Tue Aug 18, 2020
STI trade ideas
STI just reached interim downside target. May bounce...As posted on numerous occasions recently, the STI, as expected and accurately enough , broke down and ended the week at the interim downside target.
This breakdown did not appear to have very strong momentum, although it appears to be technically committed. Hence, expect next week to be slightly bullish, perhaps to retest the resistance.
So far, taking stock of the technical outlook, the STI broke down and out of the widening wedge, broke down and failed a retest of the 55EMA (orange line).
It just has a bearish bias, just not one of a waterfall like earlier in the year, so we can
Robably expect a bounce or range consolidation to follow until the next breakdown...
Stay safe, know how to read, and read when it is clear.
Am happy to exchange notes if anyone sees another perspective. Looking forward to comments...
STI broke down just today.Quick but significant development today... the STI weakened to clock lower low (close). In doing so, it had broken down below the widening wedge support with a decisive candle to end the day. It failed the retest of the 55EMA on Wednesday and broke down today (Thursday). The next couple of trading days would be significant as it should be heading about another 30-40 points lower before looking for a bounce off the support level, to retest the support turned resistance line of the widening wedge, at best bullish case.
MACD is bearish but not waterfall inducing bearish, more like a slow bleed out.
2560 support needs to hold up, else downside target is marked.
STI confirms a Lower High, looking for Lower LowThe STI had a bit of a ranging week but was dragged down slightly. No bull in sight, nor bullish opportunity as yet another lower high was registered. Previously marked (yellow ellipse) of the first lower high, another lower high was registered last week (fuschia ellipse). And last week’s movement was very significant in foretelling the underlying sentiment. This was the second failure of the 55EMA in July, breaking down into a support range, and MACD is crossing down into the bearish territory (today at current levels). I had adjusted the widening wedge support to the most open level, and this morning (Monday) the STI is testing that support.
Breaking down and out of this widening wedge is very ominous for the STI as there would be a deeper downside target.
UNLESS, over this week, there is a huge rally that brings the STI to bounce off the support and rally upwards, there is currently a bearish bias for the week. Having said that, the momentum is not signaling the risk of a waterfall, but appears likely to retest the support it broke in the coming weeks.
The system has had a Sell signal since 15 June and had not triggered the training stop despite a rather wide range for the past four weeks.
Checking back, it is worthy to note that previous related published ideas are correct ; if at all, 5 July published idea of the bulls return was short lived (on a weekly basis).
Do click on the little triangles on the top of the candles for quick reference!
IF anyone can see a decent bullish case, do leave a comment and share. I only say it as I see it , and am open to other perspectives if there are any valid scenarios.
Truly appreciate your comments.
Have a good week ahead...
STI is telling a GE story...It is Singapore’s General Election and today is Polling Day.
And like previous elections, (2016 US Elections, 2019 Indonesia Elections) there has been some correlation between the equity market with the election outcome. This is based on the collective consciousness, institutional positioning and the retail market sentiment, 0us a huge dose of critical thinking of multiple parameters. And it cumulates into technicals as an indicator.
From the STI daily chart, we saw that the recent rally from below the 55EMA continue into this week, and then suddenly reversed as the short week went by. There was no major events nor data this week for Singapore, and that provided some clarity in the technicals forming from sentiment. The STI technicals started turning bearish with a candlestick Bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern mid-week, which was reiterated with a bearish engulfing again, a day before Singapore headed to the polls. A favorable MACD cross into the bullish territory is now at risk of reversal, and technically looks like there is a higher probability towards a post-election sell off.
With historical trends, the incumbent party should still continue to win, but not by a landslide, and the technicals suggests a huge dent in the percentage win... projected to be about 62-63% overall win margin. Given that 2020 has been a year of many unprecedented outcomes, a possible risk of <60% win margin (59%) might be the downside risk.
This is what the chart is telling... no expected landslide, and a dent in confidence; hence the market appear to be positioning itself already.
Let us see...
Bulls are back at the STIThe STI broke down the week before, and suddenly a reversal to rally came back for later part of the week, closing the week with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, and keeping inside the (adjusted) widening wedge.
Technically, the weekly chart is bullish, with current candlestick pattern being bullish, there may be an attempt to work towards meeting the 55EMA, or at least near the last high. Over the next couple of weeks.
Note also, that for the coming week, Friday is polling day for the General Elections and it is expected for the incumbent government to continue being in charge. Hence, likely to follow through with a bullish market for the coming two weeks, at least.
As for the downside target, it has to be put on hold for now, obviously.
STI just broke down; possible target at 2000The STI daily chart shows technical break via a Gap Down of:
1. A supporting trendline;
2. Out of a bear rally wedge;
3. Failed the 55EMA; and
4. MACD broke down into the bear territory
This appears to be a rather strong conviction of the weakness of the STI and projections indicate 2500 as the next and critical support. Failing which 2200, and consequently 2000.
This follows a previous warning that the STI was about to turn and form a top, which it did.
Note that the STI appears to be inherently weaker than most indices, partly due to its components consisting of mainly financials, with very few technology, and increasing contribution of REITs.
STI - Expect more downside risksAn update from previously posted Alert on the Straits Times Index (STI) as it is about warranted time.
The STI had closed the last 4-5 DAILY sessions below the 55EMA, and this morning saw a gap down, pushing the morning session for recent lower lows.
The MACD had crossed into the bear territory and we are looking at 2500 as the next support.
Bearish ↘️
What do you do when you are uncertain ?That is what the media is now saying - that the market is anxious because of a second relapse of the Covid-19 virus. Look at the latest happening in China where 137 new cases were discovered and schools had to be closed down again.
What else are there to worry about ?
Well, the number of cases in US is still not tapering, that's a prime concern especially with states reopening their economy. And we have the unemployment benefits that will end in July. Looks like the US government has to cough up some new stimulus to allay the fear amongst this group else we see a new protest on the streets.
Latest kids on the blocks ? The military battle between China and India where double digit casualties were discovered.
Naturally, short sellers want to focus on these news in addition to their views on how overvalued the US indices are, how tech industries are driving the economy and is long due for a bear market.
If we turn to charts, this is what we know :
Short term - it is now above the 20 and 50 EMA which is a bullish signals
It is still in a range with its recent attempt to hit 28000 but failed. If the bullish trend line stays intact, then it might retest this level again.
I am looking at the gap (pink) where it is expected to close in due time.
The last closing candle is a hammer pattern, which is also bullish sign.
What else do we know ?
New influx of funds from Hong Kong
Singapore phase 2 reopening will boost local economy spending
So, short term, we can still expect volatility especially from market moves from US which impact Singapore market greatly. Mid to long term, I am bullish on SG market especially the Government calibrated move to contain the Covid-19 cases. Not forgetting, it is also calling for Election which is likely to boost the stock market as well.
Here we go... Straits Times Index topping outAs pre-emoted recently, the STI wiped out 5 sessions of gains in just 1 session yesterday. And this happened before the US and global markets moved down strongly due to “second wave” of COVID-19 in the USA. This, in my humble opinion, is actually the extension tail of the initial wave as there was no break.
Coming back to the STI, there should be a follow through, with a slight bounce, but should end much lower. Meeting the 55EMA in the gap support zone should offer some supporting bounce, only to fail later in the month. MACD is turning down, but not yet firmed, although the trailstop is already broken for a downtrend.
Worthy to note, the green dotted line was the target for the past rally to break above for a trend change. Unfortunately, it did not manage despite a valiant effort. This suggests that the (down)trend resumes to be in force.
Warning that STI is about to turn!Any day now, by the end of the week, the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) is ready to turn.
Yesterday’s candlestick pattern looks bad, and note the red dotted line . This level was required to be exceeded IF it is to resume bullish trend, and clearly it missed by a big margin despite a spectacular run up.
2750 is the immediate support and breaking down means there is a closure of a previous gap, which is bearish.
Thereafter, the orange ellipse area is the next battle.
Meanwhile, there is likely to have some volatility up and down, so be cautious until breakdown.
Heads up!
Bottoms UPSometimes, when your life is too routine and the things you are exposed to are more or less the same, you become complacent. Go to work, come home, cook dinner, play games, sleep. Repeat and rinse.
In trading/investment, it can be the same as well. If you stick to your own local markets, the companies that are very familiar with (strong brand name, you are the customers for years, good review, etc), then you might missed out good opportunities.
Good opportunities such as markets in Thailand, Korea, Japan and Malaysia. For STI (SG market), it has only rebound from the bottom of 23 March around 22%. If you do some research, reading the news, etc you would know that these markets are faring better than STI.
They went up on average 43% from the bottom. Why wouldn't one want to make more money given the same time frame? Risks?
Unless you are venturing into the stocks in these countries which your broker might charge for a higher commission and custody fee, you are better off looking at the ETFs in these countries.
KLSE index (Malaysia) is EWM ETF
Japan index is Nikkei 225 index (futures) which most platforms will have or EWJ ETF
SET index (Thailand) is THD ETF
KOSPI index (Korea) is EWF ETF
Please do your own due diligence as the above is an example only. There are many ETFs that invest in these countries that offer different components mix and expenses. You want to look for one that offers the lowest .
I remain cautiously bullish on Asia markets now that the various countries are slowly reopening their economies and businesses are coming back as well. The consumers would still have to accept some inconvenience like putting on masks, keeping a social distance, no dine in at food outlets,etc. Other than that, being able to resume back to their pre-Covid 19 days is liberating for many who find staying at home stressful and suffocating.
Again, this chart is not exhaustive as comparing all available tradeable Asian countries would make the charts looks confusing. So , feel free to make your own index and/or ETFs comparison and decide if investing outside of your country is worthwhile, offering you a better ROI, etc.
STI - potential for more than 20% gains in around 2 monthsAs predicted in our post of April 6, STI finished a primary degree bullish triangle and is now trending up. It seems to have finished wave ii and entering wave iii up. The most probable target is at the 3,240 level, which would total 27% of gains in around 2-month period. We may revise this analysis if prices cross down 2,480. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
STI - Kontinuasi Pergerakan Harga Ke AtasAh, akhirnya tiba juga ya awal bulan. Dan di awal bulan seperti ini, merupakan momen paling penting bagi kita untuk mulai menelaah lagi pergerakan harga selama 1 bulan terakhir. Karena dari situ, kita akan mendapatkan gambaran tentang pergerakan market ke depannya. Dan fokus kita kali ini adalah STI, yaitu indeks saham Singapura yang memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap pergerakan IHSG (JKSE) atau market Indonesia.
STI ini bergerak dalam periode Big sideways di rentang 2375-3475 dan saat ini sudah menguji level demand-nya dan rebound dari sana. Setelah rebound, market tidak naik lagi tapi malahan bergerak terkonsolidasi dalam sebuah area yang sempit. Harga terkompresi di dalam sebuah pola chart yang disebut dengan "wedge pattern" yang biasanya jika pola ini muncul menegaskan komitmen market untuk lanjut bergerak naik ke atas.
Dari sudut pandang order flow sendiri, kondisi market seperti ini terjadi karena para pelaku pasar masih bersikap "wait and see". Mereka masih belum menentukan kapan mereka harus bergerak lagi untuk naik ke atas. Disini, bisa jadi mereka memerlukan beberapa informasi pendukung yang mereka perlukan untuk menaikkan market ke posisi lebih tinggi dari sekarang. Sebaliknya, market juga tidak melihat alasan kenapa STI harus turun lebih dalam lagi, sehingga mereka juga menahan market ketika ada aksi seller yang menggerujuki market dengan selling order. Market in a balance state now.
So, saya optimis market bakalan bergerak naik di dalam waktu 1 bulan ke depan ini. Pola wedge ini bakalan pecah juga dalam beberapa waktu ke depan.
So, let see.
Jee
Straits Times Index (STI) Analysis 26 May 2020; Staying NeutralCurrently staying neutral for STI. It is trading below the range EQ of 2689.97 and has not been able to reclaim this. This is bearish, which means every bounce should be shorted.
However, it is trading above the Order Block (OB) EQ of 2517.52 – hanging by a thread. This is the critical point to look at: whether we reclaim this or lose this at monthly close.
When monthly closes in the next few days it will give us a clearer picture. There are 4 scenarios we need to contemplate:
1) (High Probability) Lose OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential swing short. Take Profit (TP) 1 targeting the EQ of the OB below us at 2318.17.
2) (High Probability) Reclaim OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential scalp long. Take Profit (TP) targeting the range EQ at 2689.97. Do not stay in this trade for too long. 1) Market structure has broken down on the high time-frame, 2) we are trading below range EQ, so this is a counter-trend move. Hop out of the trade if it is getting uncomfortable; don’t be too fixated on hitting the TP.
3) (Low Probability) Monthly close reclaims range EQ of 2689.97 -> Swing long position. TP1 targeting the EQ of the OB above range EQ at 2919.34.
4) (Very, very Low Probability) Monthly close sweeps range low of 1473.77. This is definitely a long term swing long. Doubt it will happen in the near future.
