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Euro Stoxx 50 IndexEuro Stoxx 50 IndexEuro Stoxx 50 Index

Euro Stoxx 50 Index

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SX5E trade ideas

EUSTOXX50 - Wedge retested with no higher highDaily: - the broken wedge was retested yesterday and today, but so far price could not make a higher high - Heikin Ashi candles signal some undecision (not yet bearish), haDelta may cross below SMA3. It can be a sign for diminishing bullish power. 4H: - Price popped up again after retesting the Kumo. - DMI and Heikin Ashi signal turns short term bearish again, after Price could not make a higher high - Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bullish - Watch 3675 as first support (Kijun and 100 WMA)! If Price breaks it, the next bearish Kumo attack can be succesful. Top consolidation has clearly started. It is too early to decide if it will end in a deeper correction, or keeps moving more sideaway in 3630-3740 range. Maybe we should just trade the range, trying to sell these tops, and in case there is no follow through, close it with few % profit.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
STOXX50 - Breaks the wedge, start to hedge!Daily: - Rising wedge is broken - Heikin Ashi setup turns bearish: yesterday long wicked doji, followed by massive red candle today. haDelta/SMA3 further down below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish - MACD sell signal is firm now - First daily support is at 3600 Kijun Sen (almost reached today). A break below needed to see more correction to next support level which is ard 3500. The real strong bullish support is 3400. 4H: - Price reached first important support at Kumo bottom and horizontal line. I think this should hold short term as Price is a bit oversold. But any spike will be a sell opportunity, as the bullish Ichimoku setup is falling apart: Chikou below Price (still above past Kumo), weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. 3650-3700 will act as resistance o upside from now. - DMI switches to bearish, but ADX has not yet started to increase. It will when we see a bearish Kumo break below 3620. - Heikin Ashisetup is absolutely bearish, btu ha/delta reached an extreme low: this means short term mkt is a bit oversold. Try to wait for a pull back first and sell higher. Sell more on the next dip when Price breaks the Kumo. I don't think we'll see a trend reversal. (not until Price stays above 3400), but we'll have a healthy correction to 3500 +/-.There we will have to look for buy signals again and close counter shorts, and maybe enter longs again. But for now the strategy is close longs on spikes and enter counter short position.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
1
EUSTOXX50 - To the roof. Wedge is still in play.Weekly: - price reaching some long term resistance - Market has become overbought, as priceis too far from long term equilibrium levels (Kijun and Kumo) - Ichimoku setup is very bullish, but sooner or later a pull back will have to happen. - Weekly supports are: 3400 and 3291 (very strong support) Daily: - Still very bullish Ichimoku setup - The wedge is still intact. Correction can come only if Price breaks the rising wedge and closes below Tenkan Sen. - After two days of small hesitation (two small body red candles) Price tries to break higher again. Green candle with haDelta/SMA3 cross above zero line. - It may go further up, maybe a blow off top will happen around 3750-3800. The move is obviously vertical, but don't try to fade it and do not try to hunt for the top until the wedge is not broken. Price tested it two times already, but couldn't break below. Just watch and be patient, the time for the swing short will come.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
EUSTOXX - More short term bearish signals. Breaking the wedge?Daily: More signals suggesting a pull back starts. - Second Heikin Ashi candle, which shows hesitation and dropping bullish momentum - Price may finally break the wedge - MACD bearish, haDelta slowly dips further - Chance to revisit Kijun Sen ard 3480 is increasing. Bullish supports are: 3480 / 3290 (this is less likely to reach) 4H: - Price attacks Kijun Sen and trying to break the wedge - DMI bearish cross, haDelta and Oscillator goes more bearish - Careful with counter bearish position sizing, as Kumo is still thick below Price, and there is some support at 100 WMA + horizontal level ard 3545 Bulls' profit taking is likely to continue. Please note, that SP500 is still better setup for holding swing short positions. But the bell is ringing here as well!
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
1
EUSTX50 - Super lift. The only way is up...???It looks like it can never ever fall again! Central Bankers invented the perpetum mobile :-). Yes, this market is very bullish, and it will remain bullish (that is something what we have learnt in last 3-4 years as a natural side affect of QE). But as everybody knows it will pull back at some point within the trend. I've been also waiting for the pull back trigger signal for some time now, so as we have a major mkt moving US NFP data today, which can influance global risk sentiment, let's see what is the picture and what are the chances now? Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, no signs of exhaustion really until Price can not even come back below Tenkan Sen. No Kumo overshade either, Chikou is in open space. Kijun Sen is slowly catching up to Price. - The more we look at it, the most likely is that we see high degree wedge being built. These short term rising wedges within the major bullish trend tend to break eventually on the lower side, simply because as time passes, the probability of keeping the same pace of buying is decreasing. The move since January was pretty straight and vertical. - Heikin Ashi had only one day of hesitation, followed by two green candles. The only minor signal that worths attention is the haDelta, which shows negative divergence. This means the pace of Price increase (bullish momentum) is decreasing, and getting less strong compared to the previous move from 3050 to 3400, when haDelta printed its top. 4H: - Bullish Ichimoku setup with only minor pull backs (called as Kijun retests). Bulls won't worry, until Price holds above Kijun Sen - Short term support and break point is now up to 3520 - 3540 area. - DMI/ADX is still bullish, with some minor drop in ADX. - Heikin Ashi signals very short term bullish sentiment is getting tired, mkt might be ready for a minor pull back to Kijun and trend line again. HA candles with small body, haDelta turning down. As a basic rule, correction and counter trend has chance to start only if Price makes a lower low, and breaks some relevant supports. Looking at the 4H chart, this should take some more time, so for now just keep our eyes on the 4H supports, and on daily Tenkan Sen (3562 at moment), and most importantly on the wedge! Sooner or later the time will come. Any short trade attempts before a real sell signal has to be considered as a top hunting. It may work, but you must know its risk-reward is lower, so play only in small if you play it at all!
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
5
EUSTX50 - 4H support higher, sell only break of bearish wedgeDaily: - Ichimoku setup is long term bullish, but Price is far above equilibrium levels (Kijun Sen and Senkou B) - Price has been trading in a short term flag, stuck at flag top. First support is Tenkan Sen at 3398. - HA candles are more bullish, but in every third day some undecision comes to the mkt, forming doji-like candles with both upper and lower wicks - The Oscillator is bullish, but haDelta shows some negative divergence. Is it a sign of a short term decreasing bullish momentum? 4H: - Is it a bearish wedge forming? We will only know if it breaks on the lower side. - Ichimoku setup is bullish still, with Kumo and 100 WMA support up to 3395-3400 now. - Recent HA candles show some undecision, haDelta moving lower below zero line. All in all I think Bulls are slowly getting a bit exhausted. The ultimate question is what happens at 3400 if Price puls back there again. Will the wedge, 100 WMA and the Kumo break? If that happens, then finally we could see some deeper correction. For now just set an alert to 3398. We'll check Price action when we get there.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
EUSTX50 - Bullish, but chance for short term pull backWeekly: Not much to write here, on weekly time frame this index is very bullish - Price is well above Kumo, Tenkan and Kijun Sen. There can be some pull back at some point, but still Chikou Span will be in open space. Most important note on this chart is the Key Support at 3130. Until Price is above that, it has to be considered as bullish biased - HA candles are bullish, no sign for a pull back (but pls keep in mind this week has just started) Daily: - Ichimoku Setup is bullish, but Price got a bit far from equilibrium and is trading ard the top of the trend channel. - Today's HA candle will be important on close, as haDelta already suggest the bullish momentum may slow down a bit at this high. haDelta/SMA3 cross with a lower recent high of the indicator (some minor negative bias) - Supports are: Tenkan Sen = 3390, Kijun Sen = 3232. As Kijun is measured in 26 periods, if you check last 26 candles, you can see that Kijun will pick up to ard 3280 in next few days. Strongest support is 3190-3200 at the Kumo bottom and trendline 4H: - Red HA candle together with haDelta and the Oscillator suggest some pull back for today. How deep is a question. There is a support ard 3400 in form of Kijun Sen, trend and Kumo. Meanwhile it looks like a wedge has been building here. Obviously if there were an agreement today with Greece, the Index would break out on the topside. However if negotiations won't lead to solution soon, then the bearish reaction would leed to a very serious move on the downside, as the Kumo is very thin now below the Price, so there is less technical support. - Level to watch for a counter trend short trade is 3385. Until Price trades above that, it has to be considered only a pull back.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
EUSTOXX50 - Watch short term key supports. Correction downDaily: The picture shows a possible bearish swing ahead. - Two doji-like Heiken Ashi candles followed by one clear red with no upper wick - haDelta is below SMA3, both lines dropped below zero - HA Oscillator is bearish too Possible retracement tgt is 3200-3220 4 Hrs: On the lower time frame the picture is still neutral, but with increasing bearish bias. - Price is still above the Kumo and 100WMA, but below Tenkan and Kijun lines. The Kumo is thick below Price. - Chikou Span is till neutral, swinging around Price candles - Weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross - HA candles are bearsih, haDelta further down with SMA3 below zero line - DMI bearish signal with ADX start to increase The mkt has less power now. We can try to sell smaller spikes and/or the break of key horizontal level at 3320.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
EUSTOXX50 - Mixed picture with short term bearish biasDaily: - The Ichimoku setup is bullish, with supports at 3305 and 3175 - 3210 area. - Slow Stoch is slightly bearish, but MACD should confirm it with a bearish cross too, or else it can easily turn back to bullish again. - DMI shows decreasing confidence, but the bias is still bullish - Heiken Ashi candles show consolidation and undecision for the last four days (both uper and lower wicks) - HA Oscillator is still bullish, but haDelta/SMA3 gives somehow a warning signal: it looks like a cross down happenning below the zero line. In fact we should see a bearish (red) HA candle and a daily close below Tenkan Sen at 3320 to say with higher confidence a pull back is due. In case of a pull back the retracement tgt will be ard Kijun Sen at 3210. 4 Hrs: Consolidation starts: - Price crossed below Kijun Sen. Weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, Chikou hits Price, and is about to make a weak bearish cross below candles too - zig-zag DMI and low ADX also shows the index stopped trending on the lower time frame. - Heiken Ashi candles turning to bearish again, bearish haDelta cross to happen below zero line. The Oscillator turned bearish as well. It looks like there is good chance for further pull back, but I doubt we could see a bearish trend reversal as the Kumo is very thick below Price. My initial tgt is somewhere between Kumo bottom and 100 WMA so 3220-3250.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
2
EUSTOXX50 - Top consolidation or pull back to 3200-3250 supportDaily: - Ichimoku setup is long term bullish - Yesterday Heken Ashi inside candle, today is a doji candle so far -> top consolidation or signal for a pull back - haDelta cross below SMA3 -> top consolidation or pull back - Oscillator is still bullish 4 Hrs: - Bullish Ichimoku setup with a thick Kumo ahead - Short term bullish support is 3210 - Heiken Ashi signals further correction: red candles, negative haDelta and bearish Oscillator - DMI lost bullish trend bias, also signals consolidation or pull back is ahead - short term inner trendline breaks We'll likely see some further profit taking, which can send Price back to 3200+ support.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
EUSTX50 - Choppy trading at the equilibriumYours, mine, mine, yours... buy sell? What to do? As you see no one knows. Price is clearly stuck in a tight range, in fact it is a choppy swinging exactly around the equilibrium level. But there is more! Daily (Heiken Ashi candles): Everything stays perfectly together to form a totally neutral picture to increase undecision. - Flat future Kumo, with Kijun Sen and Senkou B (so the 26 days and 52 days averages) staying perfectly at same level - Kijun Sen is flat too - Price is swinging in the Kumo around Kijun Sen - Heiken Ashi candle is ... hmmm, who knows? Should say bearish, but in fact it is a bearish like doji with huge wicks, which means serious undecision and nervous intraday trading - MACD and DMI are rather bearish - first lower support almost got hit today, but the day is not yet finished How much of QE is priced in? What is the general positioning in equities with expecting the ECB to bring on the biggest secret weapon ever? 4 Hrs: What the hell is going to happen? Who knows. One thing is sure, it is going to happen soon, as the triangle is tightenning, the clock is ticking. - Price is exactly trading in the short term equilibrium range now, so it is absolutely neutral, hard to make a bet (still below 100 WMA). But before, on the previous candle... - ... Price hit the top, then hit the bottom with almost a break on the downside. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me call your attention that is a 3 % move intraday! This kind of volatility is scary, as it defenately not a sign of a healthy bull mkt! What is happening here intraday? I think Algos, computer based trading accts are about to go crazy. Once these HFT liquidity providers widen their quotes or maybe even plug themselves out, then there will be no one to sell to. OK, so far it is just a warning signal, things can still get back into normal and we may see a break on the top side, but in fact I started to become really worried about the general risk in the global system, with increasing volatility, less liquidity and such a big leverage, and with these less and less credible Central Banks on the side of the market field. At some point money printing can not just solve everything. There will be an inflection point, where the exit gets too tight, where even with further Central Bank steps and promises things can go just wild and out of control. Watch these mkts carefully, and remember, the most important principle is not making money, but protecting your capital through proper risk management and reasonable risk taking! (especially after today's SNB black swan event)
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
EUSTOXX50 - Update / More signals for troubleWe have more signals todays indicating the selloff can soon accelerate in European equities. First of all please check my previous post on the link below Daily: - Chikou cross below Price candles - weak bearish signal - Price is flirting with Kijun Sen - If it breaks below, then the very important 3100 support becomes a resistance. - MACD is close to bearish cross 4 Hrs: - weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross kept valid as Price retested Kijun twice and turned down again. - Chikou Span is crossing below Price candles - DMI bearish cross and ADX started to increase, so this time it can be valid - present Kumo is very thin, no problem to break through 3100. If the breakdown happens, selling will accelerate.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
EUSTOXX50 - Read the classic indicatorsDaily: As Price is very volatile, the longer term equilibrium (Senkou B line - Kumo bottom) is not really changing, stays ard 3050. In terms of Ichimoku signals it is very hard to read this volatile daily chart. There is too much noise as Tenkan is almost corssing bullish above Kijun, future Kumo components (Senkou lines) point up) but Chikou is about to cross bearish below Price candles. Still I can not think about European equities as bullish at all for the following reasons: - DMI is still bearish - Slow Stoch is about to give a firm bearish signal after Price couldn't break 3220 horizontal key resistance - Massive bearish MACD divergence and MACD is not far away from giving a bearish signal too - Increased/increasing volatility is not a sign of a bullis market. This kind of volatility spike happens usually at major top buildings. - Fundamentals: Greece-Syriza in focus -> EUR collapse fears -> ECB more unlikely to apply full sovereign QE program -> expected monetary stimulus which kept equity prices inflating may be off the table Real trouble and bear mkt would start below 2900. 4 Hrs: Weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross and weak bearish Chikou cross to happen? Price is close to short term equilibrium at 3100. Bearish acceleration could happen below the Kumo. Watch DMI too!
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
ESTOXX50 - Sell SetupDaily: 3300 resistance refused, Price is touching the short term trendline, which may be broken soon as both MACD and Slow Stoch is bearish now. 4 Hrs: Price down to Kumo and 100 WMA. A break below could bring further selling and then DMI will confirm with a bearish cross too. 1 Hr: Bearish now, with Price breaking below the Kumo, and Chikou Span below Price now. Needs one more confirmation sub 3235, then bearish momentum will accelerate further. Initial bearish corrective tgt is 3150. Stops have to be placed at 3275.
FX:EUSTX50Short
by Kumowizard
S&P & the EuroStoxx Wave "Problem"As given: stock markets tend to move synchronously & any downward adjustment is likely to occur together. One labelling solution as here on EuroStoxx is possible without compromising rules of overlap, wave 3 longest etc. makes wave 4 as a giant months long expanded flat (3-3-5). Not that it was much of a 'correction', it did break the support line. Most indices, 3 US majors: DJ30, Nas, S&P (lightly in the background here), FTSE, Nikkei etc. after end of August correction, all did a 'hockey stick' recovery. All are technically 'in' with an all time or multiyear highs, apart from Euro continent indices, Eurostoxx50, Dax, Ibex etc. (& the Nikkei) which means they either have a failed wave 5 (assuming true motive), or they have a little way to go to a significant top. The non-appearance of divergence in the RSI also supports this 'high yet to come'. All prior show at least some divergence, e.g recent top of (b). And for a (b) to be that high, almost always, to appropriate timescale, exceeded thereafter. Lets see how the ECB liquidity injection goes (though it is doubted as to whether this is 'real') And all that, & the tendency to synchronous movement gives me slight caution about calling a top in the US Majors. To be honest, looking over the weekend, in? Could very well be. US & other indices not perfectly together in terms of labels & waves. But, y'know ... should the enthusiasm cross the pond ...
FX:EUSTX50
by finitemonk
Estoxx50 - Is it a danger zone, or a support buy opportunity?On the daily chart Estoxx50 Index is getting a bit dangerous for Bulls. DMI, Slow Stoch, MACD all bearish, and most importantly Price has touched the uptrend and arrived to Kumo support. Tenkan/Kijun weak bearish, Chikou Span below Price candles too. However a trend exists until it clearly breaks, and until the trend is so strong bullish, we have to suppose that Bulls will try to do everything at this support level to protect it. Looking at multiple time frames, we can see critical days are ahead of this mkt: both 4 Hrs and 1 Hr is bearish, the counter trend is still intact. Watch if 1 Hr stays above previous low and prints a weak Tenkan/Kijun bullish cross at least. Price action today and tomorrow on the lower time frames will be very important to see if the Index can bottom out and turn up again, but still Bulls really need to do a lot more from here to push price above 3260 resistance level to stay in the game for longer. Same is true for the Bears if they want to get in power. As I marked on the daily chart, it is not enough just to push Price below the Kumo. They also have to break the previus key support at 3140 to reverse the trend, otherwise the attempt will fail.
FX:EUSTX50
by Kumowizard
9