TNX A long term look at the 10 year yieldHere is a monthly chart of the TNX which tracts the 10 year bond yield. Yields have been in a 40 year down trend that started at the parabolic top in 1981. Yields stabilized by 1987 and then started the slow and orderly decline to 2020 within this regression channel. The question everyone has now is whether or not the 40 year bond rally is finally coming to a end. The yield is starting to look like it is beginning to form a base. A new up trend will not be confirmed, however, until price break out of the channel and closes above the 2018 pivot. A push up to 2.25 seems likely but what happens in the 3.25 area is the most important. A sharp spike above 3.50 would not be good and move back down to new lows would not be heathy. Personally I am hoping for yields to stabilize and move sideways in a range between 1.50 and 3. Check out my previous charts re bonds and yields to get some context. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
