Free market wants higher 10yr yieldsWe are going to 2% and dragging everyone kicking and screaming. Fed cannot implement YCC just yet, things need to get way more gruesome to justify it in terms of optics.
TNX trade ideas
TNX at key levelThis is an updated chart of TNX. Yields are at an important level. This 382 fib should be resistance and send yields back down and calm the market.
If the TNX pushes through this level yields could quickly end up at 2%. This would not be good news for high flying tech stocks.
10 year bond - Back to the pastDouble top in the chart
Double top in RSI
Double top in MACD
THIS CAN ONLY GO DOWN and STOCK MARKET UP! reversal correlation
10 year bond - OverboughtRSI overbought
and I think 10 year bond is in a cup and handle formation.
I see a crash or big correction in 6-10 months in the stock market.
Conclusion is that short on bond and still bullish in the stock market and I think we will push back to higher level in short time in stock market.
10 Year Treasury yield at resistance levelThe 10 Year Treasury yields have bounced aggressively from all time lows. However, we are not at the August/September 2020 lows which coincides magically (lookup the gold number found everywhere in the Cosmos) with the 38.2% fibo retracement from the highs to the lows. If rates go sideways or correct from here, we're likely going to see a bounce in the Nasdaq which is currently near the 100 DMA bounce level...
TNX Appears to have confirmed a baseI posted this chart a while back with the title " Eventually the new cycle is going to worry about this" referring to the fact that 10year yields appeared to be breaking out of a base. With the break above 1.27 today the high of the March 1st pin bar has been breached as well as the June 1st high confirming a base breakout. Although this is good news for financials higher rates are not good for pretty much everyone else. If we see a rapid rise in rates I don't believe the market would be happy. Its not that a percent or two would cripple the economy its that the market would fear that the Fed is losing control despite absolutely massive bond purchases. Think about it...if the Fed can't keep rates down with the current amount of money they are printing what would happen if the global appetite for bonds started to dry up and bond holders start to sell in fear of losing capital. Perhaps the spike in the repo overnight rates not so long ago was foreshadowing of things to come. I am very bullish on the market right now, but the possibility a rapid sell off in bonds scares me and is definitely something to keep and eye on.
A market event is coming in TreasuriesThe Fed will not be able to do anything (and they never did). They pretended that they controlled the rates, which was a very convenient lie for 40 years: the rates were grinding lower no matter what, and everybody was happy anyways: the public was happy to know that the Fed is in charge, the folks at the Fed were happy to have their paychecks for doing not too much, except occasionally giving speeches for extra hundreds of k$.
US Ten Year yield up tp 1.4% area...After the fall in yields which accompanied Covid risk off crash, yields are moving up toward the 1.4% area. Doubt yields can go much higher and that zone, 1.34-1.45% would be a good place to buy duration...
Gold to 10YR Treasury Yield (inverted)Since 2007 perfect correlation.
If you expect yields down... get some 🥇
Read below
INTEREST RATES - Tracking Minor Waves - Wave iv of Wave 5Just following on from my 10 bond yields idea back in November - Ideas linked below in related ideas.
AriasWave just keeps getting better and better so now we have a stack of evidence telling us when the show will end.
Below I will link ALL RELATED IDEAS mentioned in the video.
THIS MARKET IS THE REASON WHY EVERYTHING IS THE WAY IT IS RIGHT NOW.
But all that will change soon and so will the world.
Not that it hasn't already. This is why I love the waves.
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$TNX textbook long setup. Hawkish.Long downtrend now broken. Who knows where it goes with the supply side deficit and stimulus around whilst COVID ravages western economies.
Eventually the news cycle will start to worry about this.10 year yield breaking from a base. A slow increase in rates is healthy and reflects a strong economy. A fast move up in rates in not good.
I always keep an eye on rates. Spiking rates could end up being the pin.
TNX still holding up wellTNX still holding up well. With this doing great, keep an eye on financial stocks. I have a position in C.
US INTEREST RATES \ BOND YIELDS - Bottom Confirmed.This is a follow up video to the larger view posted a couple of hours ago. (See related ideas)
In this video I confirm that the Wave (C) down since 1981 is over.
We have seen a minor Waves 1 and 2 of the new trend which is the start of a large degree Wave C.
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US INTEREST RATES - To Go Through The Roof. Here's The Evidence.Using the very latest advances in my AriasWave analysis I bring to you the breakdown of the US Bond Yields AKA INTEREST RATES.
What do you think higher interest rates will do to the global economy? Leave your comments below.
My analysis using the AriasWave methodology is improving at a rapid rate.
Once you learn how to do proper research you will no longer rely on indicators or hunches.
Get ready because things are about to get messy in the debt market.
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TNX Close to confirming double bottomAs I have mentioned in an earlier post. Yields are something to keep and eye on.
TNX is at .95 and could confirm a double bottom. Higher yields change the entire
market dynamic. Good for banks, strengthens the dollar, weakens precious metals,
bad for home builders ect.
Most importantly it tells us that money is moving out of bonds. This is usually bullish
for the stocks unless it goes up too fast causing debt service concerns.
See previous post below.
TNX looks like yield may have found a bottomYield looks like its bottoming. A simple back test would take it up to 1.47.
The yield on the 10y can have a big effect on all markets so its worth keeping and eye on.
The 40 year bond bull ended in MarchTake a look at the longer term charts. I don't think it means inflation is coming exactly, more like volatility.
$TNX trying to bottom. Lots of talk of inflatn.guess I'll just follow this type of chart as the canary. Lots of upside. Next test the down trend line. Might explode to the upside. Time will tell. Lots of risk abounds atm.
