TNX trade ideas
US 10YR Bond Yield - Wave 3 Has Commenced - Tracking Minor WavesAfter the breakout we had a retest of the descending trend-line and now I am expecting this to continue higher min wave iii.
Still looking for a break above 1.28.
I am tracking the Bond Yield because of the ramifications it will have on global interest rates.
I am expecting Interest Rate s to start making their way up to 20%+
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4 key economic indicators point to massive stock market declinesI started tracking this in fall of 2018 and it so far has been more or less a predictor of what has evolved.
It on average took 5 months to form a bull trap after the unemployment data broke trend.
So ~Sept. I think it will be once Q2 earnings start coming out in July... or by Q3 in October there has to be a reality check that fed hasn't done enough stimulus.
US 10 YR Bond Yield - Wave 3 Has CommencedLooks like the expanding ending diagonal in the Wave II correction ended around April 21st.
An expanding ending diagonal indicates strength in the move ahead.
I am expecting this to move up from here.
A break above 1.28 should confirm a bottom is in place.
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Quick note offering 20 yr bondsTreasury is offering 20 yr bonds in late may more debt more debt more debt. They are doing everything to support the debt and add more debt.
US 10Y Bond Yield - Lets Get Down To BusinessIf this is the bottom of bond yields. (See Related Idea)
If this is a 1-2 pattern.
If this is an ending diagonal in the latter half of the correction.
Then we are in for some turbulent times.
They cannot keep these rates down much longer.
This is a spring loaded knife ready to get violent.
Won't be long before we see the end of this.
Bond Yields Birds Eye View - General OverviewThis looks like a possible bottom in the bond yields aka interest rates.
Yet another ending diagonal.
Waiting for a couple more confirmatory waves to form before I post an update.
Key to S&P bottom formation is 10 YR Treasury Note Yield (TNX)Until we see Monthly ROC of Treasuries >0 followed by <0 the S & P (SPX) cannot form a bottom. Caveat small sample size. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Construction details on chart.
For those calling for the end of the bond bull market...... especially now that it has been nationalized, negative rates for 10 year are around the corner.
Watch the 10 yr as it gives market advice Under .7 the tnx is pointing to
More volatility and more losses in the markets.
Macro its the skewing of the forwards probability space, it matters, its a better take on the Phenomena.
I know the the real world interpretations f the symbols charted are extremely relevant , now .
I want a budget and a team to take "parabolic approach to deeper completion.
10-yr yield head and shoulder top projects to 0%I posted about this weeks (months?) ago. The 10 year came back to the neckline and looks like it's failing. We will challenge 0%. Treasury bills may go negative for a while.
