TNX trade ideas
Short tradeBearish running triangle about to close wave E?
Could overshoot the A-C line if last week's momentum carries over.
RSI (divergence up to the 6hr) gives confluence for correction, if only halfway to the TP margin.
2 / 10 Spread - Bills : NotesIf this does not concern traders.
An unrelenting Dump on the head of Safety.
Pristine Collateral on the Shallow end of the cesspool?
Absolutely not.
This is a very real horror show.
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Depression.
Generational.
The Four Quadrants of the Economic CycleUse this as tailwinds for your trading and investments to spot the capital inflows when the time comes.
I would say we are likely in the inflationary bust stage (1) coming out of the disinflationary boom stage (4) for the last decade and beyond.
I would dare say the Inflationary bust stage is next (2) as the central banks try to kill inflation by raising rates and destroying asset prices.
To fix the economic damage they would have to eventually change their monetary policy which would then bring us into an inflationary boom (3)
The cycle repeats over and over but I'm positioning for the Inflationary boom stage (3) as I believe this stage will last many years.
10 yr yield BOTTOMED today look for 3.64/3.83 new highs ahead AS the ASSET BUBBLE DEFLATES one by one .ALL of the items as stated in the dec forecast 2021 are unfolding . As I stated 2022 20% plus decline plus unemployment will reach its target as well of 6.1/ 6.3 by year end
10y re-testing long term trendThe 10 year yield has fallen back to 2.77 from a recent high of 3.48. It had broken above the multi decade trend line. This move back down will be the second re-test of that trend line. A move back below the trendline would signal a false breakout. A move back above the 3.48 level would confirm the long term breakout. Market bulls will want to see the 10 year back below the trendline.
10 yr yield $TNXPossible path failed to reach new highs ? in a WXY correction if C equals A holds ..
$tnx 12 MONTH chart. Broken Resistance After DECADES!10 year. You be the judge of when and where this plans to land.
Personally, Selloff till end of year. Ending in Covid lows resistance,
Then suddenly a massive BEAR run to Covid Support through APRIL 2023 Then DUMP CITY
10 Year Note Yield / 10 Year NoteIt's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent.
The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789.
9 States had ratified the US Constitution.
In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only
two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit.
Congress became far more dependent on the printing of money, which led
to hyperinflation.
Congress lacked the authority to levy taxes - doing so would have risked
alienating an American public that had gone to war with the British over
the issue of taxation without representation for the Crown.
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The first 6 Months of 2022 have been a disaster for Bonds.
Unfortunately, it is simply just beginning.
At present, the "Disinflation Wave" is in the trade as the Media / Wall Street
ups the narrative and continues to bang the Commodity Rollover as evidence.
Typically (although we do not use History as a Guide as this is the largest
Bear Market in History, it is unprecedented as we have noted for months)
we see an 8 to 13 Month mismatch cycle for "Dis-Inflation".
Although Demand Destruction is being accelerated in Capital Stock losses,
people eat, drink, drive... consume material things required for their very
existence.
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The most recent 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 2year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions
were a significant failure at a time when the FED reportedly reduced their
balance sheet by $21B after a retracement for several weeks off the May 25th
outsized and front-run dump of $51B.
Meanwhile, Reverse Repurchase pools continue to swell to new all-time highs,
most recently $2.34T - earning 1.55% and safely out of perceived harm's way.
Depression concerns are clearly intensifying.
2 Year Bond Futures continue to Invert intra-day.
M1 / M2 / M3 continue to flee to the Big Lots Pool.
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Negative GDP reinforces the Demand Destruction - Consumers will out how
Inflation peaks... Central Banks claim to want Positive Real Rates.
Consumers are rolling over, demand destruction is seeing far broader participation
as Savings / Investment / Incomes decline at the highest ROC's in decades.
This would require an outside Fed Fund Futures move, one that appears
improbable for the near term.
I'd like Ashley Trevort Twins - Seems improbable as well.
The difference is, that the odds favor my wish. The Bond Market will retrace in
select points on the Yield Curve, but ultimately the Negative real rate to
Inflation will find its Afterburner.
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Entities are not going to step up, this is clear.
The ticking insolvency bomb fuse was lit in early 2021...
How long is that fuse?
Not long.
Equities remain the Capital stock to destroy, Housing / Alt Coins / Metals ... etal
are not long for this environment.
In order for Global Central Banks to meet their stated objectives... they'll need to
become far more aggressive.
Will they...
TNX on track to get above 6%The structure for an extended wave 5 holds, and is now very mature. When wave 5 is extended, the 0.382 mark of the full trend usually lies within wave 4, which allows to determine the target for wave 5.
The question is: how do I know wave 5 will be extended? Well, we just need to look at the broader market for the answer.
Have Treasury Yields Peaked?Soaring inflation and bond yields have hammered sentiment all year. But now there could be signs of yields peaking.
A few patterns appear on this chart of the 10-year Treasury yield. First is the October 2018 high of 3.248 percent. TNX jumped above that level for six sessions before rolling over. It tried it again on June 28, but failed. That lower high may confirm long-term resistance remains in effect.
Second is the rising trendline along the lows of March and May. The yield closed below that pattern yesterday. Has the trend broken?
Third, MACD made a lower high in mid-June as TNX made a higher high. That kind of divergence is a potential reversal pattern.
We’ve also seen widening losses in most non-oil commodities: copper, wheat, iron ore -- even natural gas. While inflation remains an issue, those declines could help lower yields.
Finally, it’s noteworthy that the 30-year Treasury yield never even broke its 2018 high. That may also suggest that long-term inflation worries haven’t gotten completely out of control.
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TNX-The chart you should be following very, very closely!!!I posted about TNX at the end of March and warned that we were in unchartered territory. At that time, TNX had bullishly crossed the monthly cloud which was something it had not done during my lifetime nor probably most traders lifetimes.
We are just about to quarter's end (June 30th) and you can see a clear breakout on an Inverse H&S is occurring. I see nothing but tailwinds for this chart within the next 2 weeks so I don't see how we don't close the quarter above 3.056. The measured move implies a target on TNX of 5.502 with the ability to "wick" above to 6%. Debt is becoming more & more expensive by the quarter and it's all happening very, very quickly.
In addition, have a look at the quarterly charts of Wheat, Rice, Soy, Corn & Oil...all of them look to be either breaking out on the quarter or they are just bullish AF.
Inflation, as it relates to what is most essential in life, has not peaked...
Yield is technically toppish. Closing month with bearish pinbarFundamentals don't look pretty with the inflation being far greater than the interest rates, but technically we are toppish on the yield.
Yes, we broke out of a 40y channel, which makes us shift from bull bond market to neutral bond market, unless we would close the month extremely bull in one of the next months.
Technicals indicate we could trade back to 2pct, but fundamentally this is hard to justify.
Interest rates could hover between 2pct and 4pct. (2pct being recent historical support, 4pct being trendline resistance in the future)
Bond market trading bull (interest going down) last three weeks, forming bearish pinbar on the monthly.
Summarized:
- Bearish monthly pinbar
- Rejection of the resistance trendline formed by 2 earlier tops in late 2013 and late 2018.
- RSI overbought and oversold have historically nicely led to sharp reversion. Monthly overbought RSI could indicate shar reversion.
Bond market can continue bull / bear on the yield.
Extended wave 5 is in progress, 6% or above is very closeExtended wave 5, of which 1-2 are already completed, leaves us with almost no other alternatives than to see 10Y propelled to 5..6% in the next 3 weeks. This will be the time the total market cap will be cut by 2/3, eventually leaving SPX below 1500.
$TNXNot a meaningful top in yields I believe with 5 down at c equals 0.618 a , which is a buying point ..
US Total PublicSo this is VERY interesting...
1- US Total Public #debt momentum exploding
2- Ten year yields breaking out of 40 year descending channel
Previous similar periods where both move up together: 1976-1980 and 2003-2007.
#Gold & #silver did very well in those #inflation periods.
Mortgage Interest Rates TNX is an indicator that the mortgage interest rate is pegged to or based off of. Assuming we have peaked at the current mortgage interest rates, given the recent reports of cooling housing market, contrary to the typical summer market trend. This chart is modeling the rate coming down trend based of previous crashes. Helps narrow down a timeline to when we could see interest rates at 5%, 4% & 3%.
Another interesting correlation was the crude oil price and TNX following a similar trend. Not sure what the underlying basis for this correlation is. I am assuming oil prices could be a lead/lag indicator to mortgage rates.
The Life & Times of Bitcoin 2011 - 2022
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10 yr yield to TARGET 3.56/3.62 PEAK THE CHART POSTED is that of the 10 yr yield today we hit the Trend line and this could be it or have one last pop into the 50% target . before coming back into 2.80/2.90
#TNX #US10Y 10 year yield at a top?So the 10 year yield has run hard on interest rate hike expectations.
However, as can be seen from the chart, the yield is currently about 93% above its 50 month moving average, the highest it has ever been...by far.
Using the TD indicator one can also see that the yields are potentially topping this month.
As can be seen from the Stochastic and RSI below, both are at major tops.
The yields and DXY priced in a more hawkish FED the last couple of days since we got the higher than expected CPI reading on 10 June.
Chances are that the FED will not be able to continue with higher interest rate hikes as this will crash the market.
So, the yields and DXY might have been running based on expectations but might revert quite a bit on actual release of FED interest rate decisions tomorrow.
TNX 10 year near reversalDowntrend will continue when E is hit. Will be a quick reversal from market sell off to quick climb higher.
