$spy $tlt $fedfunds What do you think breaks the systemWhat rate breaks the system? 1.5, 2, 2.5 percent? They have to push it to 2.50 or what little credibility they have will be lost.
TRJEFFCRB trade ideas
$spy $tlt $crb Nearing a topIt could get uglier for stocks here if we continue higher on commodities.
SECTOR ROTATION CHEAT SHEETIf bonds, stocks and commodities rotate above and below the 12 month ma then I'd assume we are in stage 5. Feel free to comment. Comments are welcome.
CRB - Commodities at multi decade lowsCRB at all time lows - should be an allocation once dollar strength situation is resolved one way or the other.
$spy $dba $dbc Commodities headed higher still. Ala 2007This is bad. When you can't create supply what happens to the saying about what cures high prices? Waaaay Higher prices and Economic global recession.
CRB Commodity Index predictionCRB Commodity Index prediction
When it gets highs the equity takes opposite affect
so its inversely proportional
TRJEFFCRB (CRB Index) - Correction ExpectedTRJEFFCRB expected a correction in this rally from this point
Massive pullback in commodity prices might be coming...We might seeing around 30-40% pullback in commodity prices in the coming days which will be a buy of a lifetime opportunity because after this pullback I don't think we will ever look back while the world will be heading into a new place.
$spy $crb Major target reached $cl_f $tnxCommodities have reached target and key overhead resistance. Short April crude at 89.80 Yield in tnx also reached target on same day and I bought bonds at 152.20
DEFLATIONARY WAVE TO START NOW We have just ended 99% of the reflation wave in all assets .We are setup on any new wave up to end the reflationary forces from the FED . I SEE NOTHING PUT DEFLATION JUST AHEAD IN ALL ASSETS
Commodity Index - at Critical JunctureCommodities have continued a steady climb, and the CRB Index is outperforming SPY (as noted in an earlier post). But CRB is now hitting the upper edge of a resistance band with longer-term market cycle implications. A close watch is required here to see how the CRB Index performs at this crucial juncture.
Fractal dynamics analysis of commodities by CRB INDEXFractal dynamics analysis of commodities represented by the CRB INDEX in fractal relationship with the Morgan Stanley stock moved forward by 90 months, this road map detects the similarity of the Wyckoff phases and becomes a binoculars on the future of the direction of the commodity price , this study highlights a long-term future bullish trend in commodities.
CRB index on Support - go LONG ?Following my last post on Crude, i am showing the weekly chart of the Thompson Commodity CRB index. Right now its sitting at around 206.95.
The old saying "Old Top becomes New Bottom" could be a valid case here.
Crude oil is the largest constituent in the CRB index and it affect the price greatly. Follows by Hard then Soft metals (except gold).
So my opinion is Copper will also rise together with oil.
Let's keep an eye on this.
The Commodities Index Looks Set to Go LowerThis index is breaking down after showing bearish divergence and having a false bullish breakout on the Daily and Weekly.
Based off this and the weakness we're seeing in the commodities themselves i expect the prices of Precious metals to begin a new downtrend in the coming weeks and for the price of Thongs such as Wheat and Soy to have a major decline.
I would also expect many Mining Companies to go down such as FCX and SA and for the Value of the US Dollar to rise.
CRB / S&PCRB (commodity index) / S&P 500:. The Thomson Reuters CRB index is a basket of 19 different commodities heavily weighted towards Energy and Ag (39% Energy, 41% Agriculture, 7% precious metals, 13% industrial metals)
In bullish cycles with strength in stocks and commodities, it is typical for commodities to have a correction in the middle of a Stock Market bull run. It is healthy for the stock market, and consumer driven economies, to see commodities pull back to keep cash in consumers’ pockets. Cheap food and cheap fuel leaves more cash in consumers’ pockets…A correction or bear move in Equities pull commodities down with it and then a new cycle begins.
Many fundamental reasons to be bullish commodities, but one must be careful.
1. A stock market drop will take commodities with it, maybe for just a short period.
2. The govt has injected major cash into this economy. They may take drastic measures to secure their investment. I have no idea what it could be but I wouldn’t rule out policies, programs, reports, and etc that target the rising price of food and fuel…..
$spy $tlt $gld $iwm What happens to commodities here is key for the market. It controls the direction of $tnx which controls next move in $iwm and $gld There is an outside shot we get a temporary spike to 232 on the crb index, but I think that is it. High portability that we get a substantial correction sometime soon. Tnx looks like an inverted H&S bottom but that would require a super cycle move in commodities beyond 232 to confirm. Lots of uncertainty for several important sectors here. Implications are huge on how this resolves.
Return of inflation ( by CRB)It is just the very beginning of a long term inflation
History may replay how things occurred from 2000 to 2008 after a sort of crisis(s)
Commodities PRICE posibile directions.Commodities are at an important monthly liquidity zone.
Price action from this point will determine if a new descendent trend will start or the price will continue the up trend.
At the fundamental level there are labour shortages and severe suply chain disruptions.
The rate of growth is the sharpest since May 2007 but firms have dificulties procesing new orders amid materyal delivery delays.
$spy $tlt $cl_f Is inflation about to peak and rollover? Odds are high that we have seen or are very close to a peak in inflation.
$spy Crb index rising wedge =increasing risk to inflation thesisI would be careful piling into commodities right here. May have a little more upside, but downside risk is developing. Energy carrying it right now. Not to mention the bearish RSI divergence forming as well
$spy Commodities trade is done for now. Consolidation/CorrectioExpect choppiness in commodities for a while. Major LT overhead resistance and DT line capping run for now
