commodities bearish trend signal, let oil drop to 80$!!!!let oil drop to 85$ or 80$
it will reset the indicator on oil and make it ready to bullish above 160$ on winter season end of year 2022
BS Europe and other countries can get away from Russian oil and gas
take a lot of money and 3 years to build new oil distribution from other country
TRJEFFCRB trade ideas
Commodities trajectoryPeople are putting in Bids to rent apartments in major cities, fewer and fewer people are buying homes, CPI is going up.
The result is the value of the dollar (and for contemporary living) is going up.
This results in high commodity prices to match the inflation, and the rise has been unreal. It will likely continue this year - I believe a double top will take place.
Countries need to address the CPI.
People will buy less supplies and spend less in general -- this will briefly increase commodity prices as the supply still limited. but soon, prices will fall as there will be insufficient demand (in light of people spending less, their valuable dollars).
As such, commodities will likely finish a double top and then stabilize as the economy recovers starting 2023
Commodity Index - at Critical JunctureCommodities have continued a steady climb, and the CRB Index is outperforming SPY (as noted in an earlier post). But CRB is now hitting the upper edge of a resistance band with longer-term market cycle implications. A close watch is required here to see how the CRB Index performs at this crucial juncture.
Fractal dynamics analysis of commodities by CRB INDEXFractal dynamics analysis of commodities represented by the CRB INDEX in fractal relationship with the Morgan Stanley stock moved forward by 90 months, this road map detects the similarity of the Wyckoff phases and becomes a binoculars on the future of the direction of the commodity price , this study highlights a long-term future bullish trend in commodities.
CRB index on Support - go LONG ?Following my last post on Crude, i am showing the weekly chart of the Thompson Commodity CRB index. Right now its sitting at around 206.95.
The old saying "Old Top becomes New Bottom" could be a valid case here.
Crude oil is the largest constituent in the CRB index and it affect the price greatly. Follows by Hard then Soft metals (except gold).
So my opinion is Copper will also rise together with oil.
Let's keep an eye on this.
The Commodities Index Looks Set to Go LowerThis index is breaking down after showing bearish divergence and having a false bullish breakout on the Daily and Weekly.
Based off this and the weakness we're seeing in the commodities themselves i expect the prices of Precious metals to begin a new downtrend in the coming weeks and for the price of Thongs such as Wheat and Soy to have a major decline.
I would also expect many Mining Companies to go down such as FCX and SA and for the Value of the US Dollar to rise.
CRB / S&PCRB (commodity index) / S&P 500:. The Thomson Reuters CRB index is a basket of 19 different commodities heavily weighted towards Energy and Ag (39% Energy, 41% Agriculture, 7% precious metals, 13% industrial metals)
In bullish cycles with strength in stocks and commodities, it is typical for commodities to have a correction in the middle of a Stock Market bull run. It is healthy for the stock market, and consumer driven economies, to see commodities pull back to keep cash in consumers’ pockets. Cheap food and cheap fuel leaves more cash in consumers’ pockets…A correction or bear move in Equities pull commodities down with it and then a new cycle begins.
Many fundamental reasons to be bullish commodities, but one must be careful.
1. A stock market drop will take commodities with it, maybe for just a short period.
2. The govt has injected major cash into this economy. They may take drastic measures to secure their investment. I have no idea what it could be but I wouldn’t rule out policies, programs, reports, and etc that target the rising price of food and fuel…..
$spy $tlt $gld $iwm What happens to commodities here is key for the market. It controls the direction of $tnx which controls next move in $iwm and $gld There is an outside shot we get a temporary spike to 232 on the crb index, but I think that is it. High portability that we get a substantial correction sometime soon. Tnx looks like an inverted H&S bottom but that would require a super cycle move in commodities beyond 232 to confirm. Lots of uncertainty for several important sectors here. Implications are huge on how this resolves.
Commodities PRICE posibile directions.Commodities are at an important monthly liquidity zone.
Price action from this point will determine if a new descendent trend will start or the price will continue the up trend.
At the fundamental level there are labour shortages and severe suply chain disruptions.
The rate of growth is the sharpest since May 2007 but firms have dificulties procesing new orders amid materyal delivery delays.