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THOMSON REUTERS/CORECOMMODITY CRB INDEXTHOMSON REUTERS/CORECOMMODITY CRB INDEXTHOMSON REUTERS/CORECOMMODITY CRB INDEX

THOMSON REUTERS/CORECOMMODITY CRB INDEX

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TRJEFFCRB trade ideas

Commodities are Getting Ready to POP!!Gold typically leads commodities by a few months and so given the surges and breakouts in gold, silver, and platinum, I think the CRB index is next. Looking at the chart, its clear this is a chart that has been gradually shifting in trends. In my opinion, most of the heavy selling is over. CRB index has been forming a sexy looking base and looks like it could begin surging. Timing wise, this coincides perfectly with the Fed & central banks globally beginning new easing cycles. Its still early, as the breakout has not started, but its looking ready to get its first real pop sooner rather than later. In my view the CRB index presents tremendous value over the next several years, especially now at these ridiculously suppressed prices.
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by Ludwig_Von_Mises
3
Commodities rolling over (but likely not yet) to the downsideBuilding on The_Unwind 's post about commodities . I agree commodities are on the way down to new lows (and multi-year bottom). It is a deflationary cycle, interest rates is the most obvious proof that we live in a deflationary environment. Having extremely low or negative interest rates simply means that fewer and fewer people/businesses take credit (the price of money deflates) or the supply of money exceeds the demand for it. Either way, it means trouble for commodities that thrive in the inflationary environment and for stocks eventually. Having agreed to the big picture my Elliottwave count suggests that before we go onto a death spiral with oil testing 25-20 and stock market crush at least 30% we might have one final rip upwards which will unsettle bears and make everyone talk bullish nonsense again. Elliottwave.com says 'waves E are attended by psychology as emotional as that of a fifth wave'. I might be wrong. I base my judgement on the gut feeling that the structure does not look complete. Those 3-3-3 moves come in 5-waves pack (ABCDE or WYXZ) at least. Final wave E may not travel all the way up as indicated on the chart. It sometimes ends below the previous high (wave C). As for fundamentals.. well it might be anything. The Fed may suddenly drop comments that they will do an emergency, earlier cut. Or they cut more than expected. Or Trump tweets something about alignment with the Fed to act aggressively or any similar short-term hype. The irony is that the news will be deflationary by nature (increasing money supply when nobody needs it) but people will talk about the money flood which is supposed to raise prices and the powerfull Fed saving the economy.
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by Fomenka
CRB Index Down 50 %,.. Lead By Oil,.Continues To PlungeThe CRB Index of Major Commodities TRJEFFCRB , is breaking down once again, in a potential Head and Shoulder's Reversal Pattern down to extremely important major support. As seen here on the Monthly CRB Chart, commodity prices as measured by the CRB Index are down a whopping 50 %,..,since 2011 ! With most market observer's looking to the plunge in interest rates, as the major factor or potential cause for an upcoming worldwide economic slowdown, the sharp decline in commodity prices going on 8 years now,lead by energy and industrial metals weakness like copper, have long been foreshadowing an economic day of reckoning on the horizon, The message here is to pay attention to the CRB Index of major commodity prices daily, for clues about the health of the overall economy. Right now, commodities are telling you the same story, of strong pending weakness from the demand side, just as long term interest rates are flashing the same confirming message. Concluding thought. I wonder how much longer,it will take for the stock market, to heed the same ominous warning signs that are out there ..? THE_UNWIND 8/17/19 NEW YORK
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by The_Unwind
7
Late Cycle 101 (Comes down to Q2/Q3 Corp Profits) Late Cycle indicators. Watch for yield curve steepening. As Druckmiller says, a recession can not be official without a corporate profit recession which leads to significant repricing of equity. It appears we are at the inflection point of another 2016 or repeat of 2000, 2007...Q2/Q3 is the do or die. If we get through without negative YOY earnings , it could be another 2016. This will be a big quarter for the market to determine if bond holders or equity bulls have it right. Without a system shock event, corp profits is the only thing that can cause an official recession. Otherwise its just a massive slowdown and Q4 2018 could have been the final act before spreads steepen.
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by UnknownUnicorn4328351
Re-Visiting Oil, the CRB Index and the FEDFundamental: Today is December 18, 2018. The US Fed meets on Wednesday, December 19, 2018. Not much to say; just watch and wait. Technical: I am neutral this CRB Index. With oil oversold and the CRB Index oversold, it won't be a surprise if after the US Fed meets this week, we get some type of risk on sentiment flowing back into the markets. I watch this drop and remain neutral until evidence shows up that this is going green. Besides this, it still can go awry with a continued slide. I am open-minded to anything; however, at this point, I refrain from jumping in short with everyone else. The same can be said above USOil itself on a monthly basis:
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by Rocketman