TRJEFFCRB trade ideas
WEAK DOLLAR AND HIGHER INFLATIONAccording to the chart's data, Trump's administration economic policies will lead to weaker dollar and increase inflation in upcoming months
Commodity CRB Index under resistanceAt the same time we see:
- DXY on massive support
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- EUR/USD under massive resistance
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- Gold under resistance:
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- Quantitative tightening from the fed which should result in USD strengthening, and QE still going on in ECB, which should lead to EUR weakening.
CRB Index: TRJEFFCRB Useful Back-up for Gold and Oil tradersCRB Index Commodities Index: TRJEFFCRB
The CRB index - Back-up Confirmation for Gold and Oil Trades.
It's useful to know which way the greater wind blows before
setting sail. This wind is with the bulls and has been off and
on since June. It's making a nice trend of its own, grinding
away each bear in its path until 195.62 is reached - up about
2.5% from here. Do not consider shorting gold, oil, silver or
copper aggressively until 195.62 is reached on this index, except
near term scalping raids which will carry wiith them all the
risks associated with trading against a trend. Even the deftest
of scalpers will need their A game to make much from
shorting, and will likely have to move fast to bag any profits.
Any bears with a medium term view are going to get crushed.
Can therefore only turn aggressively bearish of Oil once the lower
parallel channelling this impulse wave is broken on downside.
Then you know the greater wind is turning and it's finally time
to change tack and start selling rallies again.
This index has a look of latent strength behind it - 195.62 will
not hold it back for long. Once passed it will rally another 5
points or a firther 2.5% to 203.6. Then look for the wind to
change and at least a 2.5% fall back to 195.6 again. Get this
medium to longer term idea of push and pull and you can
make some very good returns. Good trading to the 3 wise men
who bother to read such arcane research. You will do well.
Never so sure about the rest though...
Market correlationRising commodity prices-CRB index (high inflation) are generally indicative of economic growth, which results in higher interest rates and lower bond price ( higher bond yield)
Go long commodity and commodity currencyUptrend of the commodity market after USD downside and demand in the world is continues support (Especially China's demand for commodities)...
TRJEFFCRB Index testing critical support break below spells doomCRB INDEX tesing critical support at 176.721. This level separates the last Bulls from the Bears. If it fails at any point by more than 10 pips it will turn already poor technicals even more bearish and signal another significant down-wave across most complexes associated with this index has begun.
ECM cycle line with Reuters CRB and WTI OilJudge by the level of commodities indexes and oil price correction depth level, we already had a financial crisis.
now fiscal stimulus and QE can serve as a ICU, cover the real situation of a person.
