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CBOE 30 YR TREASURY BOND YIELDCBOE 30 YR TREASURY BOND YIELDCBOE 30 YR TREASURY BOND YIELD

CBOE 30 YR TREASURY BOND YIELD

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30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes: 1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers. 2. Orange County Bankruptcy 3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse. 4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat 5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.
TVC:TYX
by timwest
8
Weekly Preview - the Dash to Trash - SPX OIL GOLD YeildsAll in the video, a correction is likely but I don't think we crash. Final targets are still 4600+ for this particular rally. IWM and DJT caps will likely get heavily bid into the end of the year while SPX and QQQ take a breather. OIL downtrend continues, needs to get over 80 for any kind of reversal to take place. Gold could be in a Wyckoff distribution here, I'm not sure - but RSI is telling me to be cautious and expect a pullback. Yields should go higher as the stock market corrects. Good luck!
TVC:TYX
by the_sunship
5
Understanding the Implications of a Shift in the 30Year TreasuryRecent observations indicate a potential shift in the 30-year treasury yield. This key economic indicator, which has been on a 40-year downtrend, is showing signs of an uptrend. This could mean that interest rates may not return to zero and could even increase over time. Understanding Treasury Yields The treasury yield can be thought of as the interest rate that the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 30 years. If this rate is increasing, it means the government has to pay more to borrow money. This is a significant shift, as for the past four decades, the trend has been towards lower interest rates. Potential Economic Implications If the interest payment per year (the money the government has to pay back for its debts) becomes more than its tax receipts (the money it gets from people paying taxes), it could lead to concerns about the government's ability to pay back its debts. This could result in a decrease in the demand for government bonds, leading to a drop in their price. When the price of a bond goes down, the yield (or the return you get from buying the bond) goes up. This is because the government might have to promise to pay more to convince people to lend them money. This situation could lead to higher borrowing costs for the government, potentially affecting its ability to fund public services and repay its debts. The Impact on the Economy Higher interest rates can have a broad impact on the economy. They can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, potentially slowing down investment and economic growth. For individuals, higher interest rates can make loans and mortgages more expensive, which could affect consumer spending. On the other hand, higher yields can be beneficial for certain investors. Those who own these bonds would get a higher return on their investment. However, this is generally considered a riskier investment, as the higher yield is due to concerns about the government's ability to pay back its debt. Navigating the Future In light of these potential outcomes, it's crucial for investors and citizens alike to stay informed and prepared. Diversifying investments, maintaining a balanced portfolio, and keeping an eye on economic indicators like the treasury yield can help navigate these uncertain times. However, it's important to remember that economic conditions are complex and constantly changing. This analysis is based on current trends and the potential for these trends to continue or change in the future. As always, it's crucial to do your own research and consider multiple perspectives when making financial decisions.
TVC:TYXLong
by Goldenratiocapital
Reverse Head and Shoulders Breakout in 30 Year Bond YieldVery clear reverse head and shoulders, a very strong chart pattern indicator for long term tops and bottoms, target is 3.6% yield on the 30 year bond. A retest of the neckline will confirm a very strong possibility of the target being reached. On the macro side, I think yields will be forced lower over the next 1-5 years. I'm looking to go all in on leveraged bonds if and when the the 3.6% yield is reached, or if CPI starts showing significant weakening.
TVC:TYX
by RPM3231342